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Old
07-16-2017, 01:35 PM
  #476
Raoul Duke
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Originally Posted by MessierII View Post
This is non sense though. If we're consistently hemmed in when he's on the ice why is the opposition scoring the least amount goals when he's out there?
Because Talbot has an insane save percentage while Russell and Sekera are on the ice. Maybe that's aided by something Russell is doing, maybe it's luck. IDK.
Also, as I said, Russell is very good while hemmed in. Battles hard, blocks shots, etc. This is why the old school fans love him.

Either way, it does nothing to help the offence. He usually gets the puck out of the zone, just rarely with possession. Often the opponent just collects the puck and attacks again. Compounding that is his gap defending the line. He retreats too quick and often gives up an easy zone entry.
This is why the analytics guys hate him.
While we give up less goals against with him on the ice, we sacrifice a significant amount of offence.

It's not nonsense, its reality.

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07-16-2017, 01:37 PM
  #477
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I mentioned this a long while back, but if you look back at Russell's PDO when he's on the ice over his last 5-6 seasons, it's nearly always been above 100. One season might be an aberration, two seasons maybe unsustainable, but 5 seasons? Guy is either insanely lucky or there's something the stats are not quantifying that makes him "lucky."

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=464

His PDO since 2011-2012: 101.4, 100.5, 99.9, 104.0, 100.3, 101.3.

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07-16-2017, 01:53 PM
  #478
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raoul Duke View Post
Because Talbot has an insane save percentage while Russell and Sekera are on the ice. Maybe that's aided by something Russell is doing, maybe it's luck. IDK.
Also, as I said, Russell is very good while hemmed in. Battles hard, blocks shots, etc. This is why the old school fans love him.

Either way, it does nothing to help the offence. He usually gets the puck out of the zone, just rarely with possession. Often the opponent just collects the puck and attacks again. Compounding that is his gap defending the line. He retreats too quick and often gives up an easy zone entry.
This is why the analytics guys hate him.
While we give up less goals against with him on the ice, we sacrifice a significant amount of offence.

It's not nonsense, its reality.
Yes, but hockey isn't all about offence. It's about balancing offence and defence. We've been hearing it for years and years, seeing multiple examples of it - Defense wins championships. Pittsburgh is the only real example in the recent past of this not being the case. But suddenly people are all up in arms about Russell not bein offensive enough when what he's brought here to do is be defensive and stop picks from getting to the net. Which he's fantastic at.

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07-16-2017, 01:53 PM
  #479
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
I mentioned this a long while back, but if you look back at Russell's PDO when he's on the ice over his last 5-6 seasons, it's nearly always been above 100. One season might be an aberration, two seasons maybe unsustainable, but 5 seasons? Guy is either insanely lucky or there's something the stats are not quantifying that makes him "lucky."

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=464

His PDO since 2011-2012: 101.4, 100.5, 99.9, 104.0, 100.3, 101.3.
It's an interesting question to ponder. For him to be so consistently above the mark really leads me to think it's not luck and rather there is a missing aspect of this analysis that isn't being accounted for.

The arguments for it being unsustainable really start to ring hollow when he sustains it year over year.

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07-16-2017, 01:57 PM
  #480
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Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
It's an interesting question to ponder. For him to be so consistently above the mark really leads me to think it's not luck and rather there is a missing aspect of this analysis that isn't being accounted for.

The arguments for it being unsustainable really start to ring hollow when he sustains it year over year.
Yeah.

For comparison, here's Sekera: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=692

Jake Muzzin: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1359 (holy **** this guy is unlucky)

Travis Hamonic: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1408

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07-16-2017, 02:00 PM
  #481
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
I mentioned this a long while back, but if you look back at Russell's PDO when he's on the ice over his last 5-6 seasons, it's nearly always been above 100. One season might be an aberration, two seasons maybe unsustainable, but 5 seasons? Guy is either insanely lucky or there's something the stats are not quantifying that makes him "lucky."

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=464

His PDO since 2011-2012: 101.4, 100.5, 99.9, 104.0, 100.3, 101.3.
I know people might find oilerbear a little eccentric haha, but he posted some interesting things in regards to the analytics of Russell in the Russell thread about a month ago.

Basically he said that a huge % of Russell's CA were shots that had no chance of going in and he has done that at a repeatable level for awhile.

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07-16-2017, 02:04 PM
  #482
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Originally Posted by McDNicks17 View Post
I know people might find oilerbear a little eccentric haha, but he posted some interesting things in regards to the analytics of Russell in the Russell thread about a month ago.

Basically he said that a huge % of Russell's CA were shots that had no chance of going in and he has done that at a repeatable level for awhile.
Matches up with the eye test.

He keeps most plays to the outside, and as long as you have a NHL-caliber goaltender in net (i.e. not Scrivens), those shots don't go in.

Yeah, he's not super aggressive with his gap control but he plays a pretty patient defensive game, which actually helps him in today's NHL game because coaches have overemphasized cycling which means players don't often try to cut in and shoot from the slot anymore.

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07-16-2017, 06:01 PM
  #483
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Originally Posted by McDraekke View Post
Yes, but hockey isn't all about offence. It's about balancing offence and defence. We've been hearing it for years and years, seeing multiple examples of it - Defense wins championships. Pittsburgh is the only real example in the recent past of this not being the case. But suddenly people are all up in arms about Russell not bein offensive enough when what he's brought here to do is be defensive and stop picks from getting to the net. Which he's fantastic at.
Exiting the zone with possession IS good defence.
Giving the puck right back to the opposition to regroup and attack again is not.
If he could do what he does and just hit an outlet pass more often (like when he takes a half hour behind the net with clear possession) that would be great.

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07-16-2017, 06:04 PM
  #484
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Originally Posted by McDNicks17 View Post
I know people might find oilerbear a little eccentric haha, but he posted some interesting things in regards to the analytics of Russell in the Russell thread about a month ago.

Basically he said that a huge % of Russell's CA were shots that had no chance of going in and he has done that at a repeatable level for awhile.
It's hard to argue with oilbear.

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Old
07-16-2017, 07:20 PM
  #485
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Originally Posted by Raoul Duke View Post
Exiting the zone with possession IS good defence.
Giving the puck right back to the opposition to regroup and attack again is not.
If he could do what he does and just hit an outlet pass more often (like when he takes a half hour behind the net with clear possession) that would be great.
If he did that he'd be a top pair D logging 25 a night and be paid near the 6 million mark with term. He's a #4 D maybe a #5 on an elite D core he's going to have flaws.

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07-16-2017, 08:18 PM
  #486
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Originally Posted by MessierII View Post
If he did that he'd be a top pair D logging 25 a night and be paid near the 6 million mark with term. He's a #4 D maybe a #5 on an elite D core he's going to have flaws.
I'm not asking for a Norris candidate. We've all seen Russell stop behind the net, watch the players reset the break out, take two strides out and rim it up the boards like he's on the pk with 20 seconds left. It's ridiculous.
He does contribute, and plenty love him so whatever.
If oilbear says he's good, I'm probably missing something.

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07-19-2017, 11:26 AM
  #487
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Just curious, how come Oilers fans think Larsson and RNH are defensive studs when their advanced stats say otherwise? I can completely understand Larsson and have seen him make some great defensive plays, but not so much for RNH.

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07-19-2017, 11:44 AM
  #488
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Originally Posted by Vali Maki Sushi View Post




Just curious, how come Oilers fans think Larsson and RNH are defensive studs when their advanced stats say otherwise? I can completely understand Larsson and have seen him make some great defensive plays, but not so much for RNH.
Just curious how you can post a couple graphs and think that encapsulates the entirety what a player brings on the ice.

You obviously don't watch RNH play and your stats are wrong if you think he is bad at defense. I don't care how many graphs you show me.

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07-19-2017, 11:49 AM
  #489
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Originally Posted by djdub View Post
Just curious how you can post a couple graphs and think that encapsulates the entirety what a player brings on the ice.

You obviously don't watch RNH play and your stats are wrong if you think he is bad at defense. I don't care how many graphs you show me.
Duncan Keith..what a liability that guy is!

Do those charts have any context at all, like zone starts and competition quality? All I see is team relative, which means you just need some crap players on your team taking down the average and/or sheltered deployment to run away with it.


Last edited by oobga: 07-19-2017 at 11:57 AM.
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Old
07-19-2017, 12:26 PM
  #490
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Just curious how you can post a couple graphs and think that encapsulates the entirety what a player brings on the ice.

You obviously don't watch RNH play and your stats are wrong if you think he is bad at defense. I don't care how many graphs you show me.
Stats and eye test back up nuge being a liability defensively. Although I do get a kick out of that chart labeling Malkin as a shut down speciality .

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07-19-2017, 01:42 PM
  #491
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RNH is pretty similar to a guy like Monahan in that some considered them "shutdown" players just because they were playing against top competition even though they were getting absolutely filled in while doing it.

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07-19-2017, 05:15 PM
  #492
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Lotta people griping about that chart but I don't think it's the worst thing in the world

-labels are a bit misleading and dramatic. Like juggernaut? Come on. The graph is relative stats too so it's not how they play, it's how their defensive and offensive stats compare to teammates offensive and defensive stats. So it's not playing style, your just better in whatever regard to your teammates

-gudas is actually a really solid D and I'd say this is more of a highlight of his skill than anomaly. Ask Philly fans about him, they love him. Bit overrated by the graph but still good.

- Keith gets dragged down big time by Seabrook if you look at wowys. Keith's plays mainly with Seabrook so overall his numbers arent as good as they should be. Keith away from Seabrook is a juggernaut legit.

- still issues with relative stats and comparing relative stats of different players on different teams. Players on good lines who have bad talent behind them get rewarded with better relative stats. For example Calgary has **** D behind the top 3, so there relative stats look much better. Klefbom and Larsson play ahead of sekera and Russell (good shot metrics due to sekera) and benning/nurse (Benning has juggernaut shot metrics due to killing it in lower comp minutes).

- my gripe is this:it uses High danger chances instead of raw stat data. This limits the sample size to a dangerously low level as it only uses a portion of the total shots. High danger chances come from select locations but it doesn't factor I actual quality of the shot, ie whether it got off clean or tipped, type of shot etc. Using all shots is actually better because over a full season all shot quality averages on. For example you can have a weak backhand from slot, or a clean wrist shot from a spot deemed low danger, both shots are pretty equal in terms of quality. You increase the sample size to encompass all combinations of location of shot and quality of actual shot and you get a way better sample size

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07-19-2017, 05:18 PM
  #493
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Originally Posted by Vali Maki Sushi View Post




Just curious, how come Oilers fans think Larsson and RNH are defensive studs when their advanced stats say otherwise? I can completely understand Larsson and have seen him make some great defensive plays, but not so much for RNH.
i got aids looking at these graphs

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07-19-2017, 07:09 PM
  #494
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07-19-2017, 08:01 PM
  #495
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Originally Posted by Bliss View Post
i got aids looking at these graphs


sorry, off-season is dragging

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07-20-2017, 08:08 AM
  #496
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Originally Posted by Aceboogie View Post
Lotta people griping about that chart but I don't think it's the worst thing in the world

-labels are a bit misleading and dramatic. Like juggernaut? Come on. The graph is relative stats too so it's not how they play, it's how their defensive and offensive stats compare to teammates offensive and defensive stats. So it's not playing style, your just better in whatever regard to your teammates

-gudas is actually a really solid D and I'd say this is more of a highlight of his skill than anomaly. Ask Philly fans about him, they love him. Bit overrated by the graph but still good.

- Keith gets dragged down big time by Seabrook if you look at wowys. Keith's plays mainly with Seabrook so overall his numbers arent as good as they should be. Keith away from Seabrook is a juggernaut legit.

- still issues with relative stats and comparing relative stats of different players on different teams. Players on good lines who have bad talent behind them get rewarded with better relative stats. For example Calgary has **** D behind the top 3, so there relative stats look much better. Klefbom and Larsson play ahead of sekera and Russell (good shot metrics due to sekera) and benning/nurse (Benning has juggernaut shot metrics due to killing it in lower comp minutes).

- my gripe is this:it uses High danger chances instead of raw stat data. This limits the sample size to a dangerously low level as it only uses a portion of the total shots. High danger chances come from select locations but it doesn't factor I actual quality of the shot, ie whether it got off clean or tipped, type of shot etc. Using all shots is actually better because over a full season all shot quality averages on. For example you can have a weak backhand from slot, or a clean wrist shot from a spot deemed low danger, both shots are pretty equal in terms of quality. You increase the sample size to encompass all combinations of location of shot and quality of actual shot and you get a way better sample size
Keith's high danger impact on his team before 2016-2017 were juggernaut, EVEN WITH Seabrook. This was just an off season. Brodie has a liability like impact because he had to drag Wideman and Engelland often. Brodie's high impact stats are usually even better than Giordano's (Who have always been juggernaut like) and this taking consideration the amount of time he had to drag Engelland around since 2014-2015...

Doughty however is usually always a liability on his team's high danger chances, yes he has excellent corsi, but he takes and I mean he takes a lot of low danger chances, and since the Kings allow so little high danger chances in general (THey were the 2nd best team behind Minnesota in 2016-2017), Doughty naturally allows a little more.

I do agree with you a lot on your last point. But I decided to use a high danger chart just for the sake of comparing slot chance generation and suppression, which many people agree most goals are scored from.

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07-20-2017, 11:23 PM
  #497
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I'm not asking for a Norris candidate. We've all seen Russell stop behind the net, watch the players reset the break out, take two strides out and rim it up the boards like he's on the pk with 20 seconds left. It's ridiculous.
He does contribute, and plenty love him so whatever.
If oilbear says he's good, I'm probably missing something.
His coach and GM think he's pretty decent, but hey, that shouldn't really count for much, should it? Clearly they have no idea how to judge a player. Perhaps Oilbear should apply?

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07-20-2017, 11:53 PM
  #498
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
At what point does "unlucky" become "bleeds dangerous chances that gaoltenders struggle with" and what point does "lucky" become "for some reason when he is on the ice the goaltender never sees difficult shots"?

Just a thought.

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07-21-2017, 03:51 AM
  #499
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Originally Posted by Vali Maki Sushi View Post

Just curious, how come Oilers fans think Larsson and RNH are defensive studs when their advanced stats say otherwise? I can completely understand Larsson and have seen him make some great defensive plays, but not so much for RNH.
Because Nuge plays against elite competition 42% of his TOI. Thats 6th most among all centers in the league. No one is higher than 47% He has an extremely tough match up every night.

http://puckiq.com/search

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07-21-2017, 08:46 AM
  #500
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Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
His coach and GM think he's pretty decent, but hey, that shouldn't really count for much, should it? Clearly they have no idea how to judge a player. Perhaps Oilbear should apply?
You're right. Coaches and GMs never make mistakes and Russell is a flawless hockey player.
None of them should ever be criticized.
Don't know what I was thinking.

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