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Old
07-16-2017, 07:51 PM
  #1
BigFatCat999
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Summer sucks: Guess the $

This summer has sucked the soul out of me. I need November, like NOW! I wonder if the Mods can change the prefixes to add a 20th anniversary one and a summer sucks one.

Anyway back on target. How much do you think Johansen and Arvidsson get? I tend to be a good guesser on RFA's but I ALways overestimate by a .25 mil per million on the contract. We all are going nuts about sign the damned papers already but with ANOTHER lockout coming up players are fighting for signing bonuses vs. AAV. He's what I think,

Johansen get 8 x 7.75 million. I was going to say 8x8 but I'm taking off what I call the Poile discount. I'm using Kuzentov as a base. which was 8 x 7.8. Same age but slightly better stats.

Arvidsson get's 4 x 4.5 his base is on the team in Craig Smith. Arvidssen had better stats vs. when Smith cashed out. BUT Smith had multiple 20+ goal seasons vs Arvidsson's one 30 goal season. Arvidsson will be one year younger than Smith on the cash out year.

What's your guess?

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Old
07-16-2017, 09:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
This summer has sucked the soul out of me. I need November, like NOW! I wonder if the Mods can change the prefixes to add a 20th anniversary one and a summer sucks one.

Anyway back on target. How much do you think Johansen and Arvidsson get? I tend to be a good guesser on RFA's but I ALways overestimate by a .25 mil per million on the contract. We all are going nuts about sign the damned papers already but with ANOTHER lockout coming up players are fighting for signing bonuses vs. AAV. He's what I think,

Johansen get 8 x 7.75 million. I was going to say 8x8 but I'm taking off what I call the Poile discount. I'm using Kuzentov as a base. which was 8 x 7.8. Same age but slightly better stats.

Arvidsson get's 4 x 4.5 his base is on the team in Craig Smith. Arvidssen had better stats vs. when Smith cashed out. BUT Smith had multiple 20+ goal seasons vs Arvidsson's one 30 goal season. Arvidsson will be one year younger than Smith on the cash out year.

What's your guess?
Joey will be sitting pretty in the low 8's, anything below 8 and I'll be pretty impressed. He's gonna have to carry this team, and he's gonna want to get paid for it too. He knows it, Poile knows it. Shouldn't be a problem for either of them though, I'd think.

Arvy is the real question mark. I'm not entirely convinced he's gonna stay consistent, but I don't necessarily think he WON'T be able to either. I think he's somewhere around 4x2.

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07-16-2017, 09:53 PM
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6 years 8.25M AAV for Joey

2 years 4 Mil AAV for Arvy

Fisher signs for one year at 3 Mil

Watson signs for 3 years 1.25 AAV

Aberg signs for 1 year 900k 1 way.

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Old
07-16-2017, 10:14 PM
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NoNecksCurse
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Johansen signs 8x8

arvy 2 years 9 million and still RFA when deal is up

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07-16-2017, 10:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
Johansen signs 8x8

arvy 2 years 9 million and still RFA when deal is up
You do mean 9 mil total right? AAV of 4.5?

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Old
07-17-2017, 04:12 AM
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NoNecksCurse
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You do mean 9 mil total right? AAV of 4.5?
yeah. i could see it being 10 million, 5 AAV. hopeful for an AAV of 4.5

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Old
07-17-2017, 07:56 AM
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RyJo gets 8x8
Arvy gets 4x4.5
Fish retires

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07-17-2017, 08:01 AM
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I just don't see Poile only wanting to buy 2 years of UFA for Arvy. I think he tries hard for a 2 year bridge, then if Arvy is consistently 30ish, Rinnes money will be available for a long term deal

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07-17-2017, 09:00 AM
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Both parties knows how reasonable a bridge deal is. Whle Arvy has eventually been able to produce everywhere he's played, he's only had one truly productive season on men's leagues he's played (one in SHL, one in NHL). If it wasn't for his work ethics, I'd say 3.5-4M, but knowing the arbiter is going to count his impact on the team in his favor, up to 5M is reasonable.

2x4M? Poile can't invest on something he's not sure of (points), but awards him for what he's done for the team (this year's success + work ethic and it's impact on team).

Do we have any RFA comparables in terms of 30g scorers (first time)?

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Old
07-17-2017, 09:50 AM
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Joey - 8 years x 7.85 AAV
Arvy - 4 years x 4.25 AAV (just have a feeling he goes longer term)
Fisher - 1 year at 2.5 mil
Watson/Aberg - just sign and take what you can get

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Old
07-17-2017, 11:16 AM
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Arviddson is entering that Ville Leino territory. 1 good year and cash in. I just hope we aren't buying him out in 2 years...

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07-17-2017, 03:01 PM
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Joey 7 x 8.25 AAV. Doubt he'll want to go under 8.

Arvy 2 x 4.75 AAV.

Fisher 1 x 2 AAV.

Watson 3 x 1.2 AAV.

Aberg 1 x 1 AAV.

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07-17-2017, 03:48 PM
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Freddie G for 650k for 3 years.

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Old
07-17-2017, 05:47 PM
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No way RyJo is getting under 8. Why in the world would he take this mythical 'home town discount'? Remember that he loved playing for Columbus - and he had a nasty contract dispute with them. He is not taking less money here. Not gonna happen. 8x8 would be ideal - guessing it ends up 8x8.5 to 8.75.

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07-17-2017, 09:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Montross View Post
No way RyJo is getting under 8. Why in the world would he take this mythical 'home town discount'? Remember that he loved playing for Columbus - and he had a nasty contract dispute with them. He is not taking less money here. Not gonna happen. 8x8 would be ideal - guessing it ends up 8x8.5 to 8.75.
I referenced this many months ago and I'll say it again. I'm not surprised by this considering my friend who works in the athletic locker room business is buds with a guy who does it for the Preds. Before last season started he said Joey wants to be here long term but he won't go the discount route. He knows this is his one opportunity for the big payday and he wants it here but not for cheap. And here we are. More power to him but the more I think about it I do think it'll be in the 8.5 million range. A tad overpaid, maybe, but beggars can't be choosers and we've been begging for a legit young #1C since 98.

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07-17-2017, 10:32 PM
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johansen is getting overrated around here imo in terms of what we should pay him. he has all the leverage so i guess we don't have a choice at this point. he doesn't deserve over 8 million a year. he's had a 60, 61, and 63 point season the past 4 years with one season of 71 points. he isn't a PPG player which is what you get when you talk about 8.5 AAV and up. if not a PPG player then they better have a cup on the resume. the playoff run gives him all the leverage but he shouldn't get over 8 million per year.

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07-17-2017, 11:14 PM
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8 million isn't a discount. It just looks that way because Mcdavids contract is pulling salaries of top end players up,significantly.

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07-18-2017, 12:30 AM
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Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
johansen is getting overrated around here imo in terms of what we should pay him. he has all the leverage so i guess we don't have a choice at this point. he doesn't deserve over 8 million a year. he's had a 60, 61, and 63 point season the past 4 years with one season of 71 points. he isn't a PPG player which is what you get when you talk about 8.5 AAV and up. if not a PPG player then they better have a cup on the resume. the playoff run gives him all the leverage but he shouldn't get over 8 million per year.
And your other option is what? You pay the man, that is your only choice. He is worth whatever he wants to us because we have no other option available. You aren't going to sign a #1 center in this league for cheap.

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07-18-2017, 06:46 AM
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"We want a number one C. Polile sucks because he never gets us a number one C."

Gets a number one C

"Why do we have to pay so much for a number one C?"

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07-18-2017, 07:52 AM
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Originally Posted by bdub24 View Post
"We want a number one C. Polile sucks because he never gets us a number one C."

Gets a number one C

"Why do we have to pay so much for a number one C?"
you people kill me. let's reply with a response instead of a silly attack on someone's credibility. respond why he is worth it. i never said poile sucks from recent memory and applauded majority of his moves. try contributing next time.

and to the reply above this meaningless one, agreed. we have no choice. my point is he isn't worth 8.5 million a year and up. 8 million max. I've seen zero from his play or analytics that would warrant a possible 8 year 72 million deal. it's not my money so i guess don't much care. it could matter when it comes to some of our better deals coming off the books though. josi, ekholm, and Ellis.

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07-18-2017, 08:10 AM
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kuznetsov is a pretty great comparable in all honesty. he signed for 8 years / 62,400,000 million .. 7.8 AAV ..similar in size. different leagues but 2 months apart in age. johansen is 2 months younger and has an extra season or 2 under his belt. points per game for kuznetsov is around 0.697 and johansen is 0.665 .. so merely upon that view point, kuznetsov is a more productive player on the score sheet. johansen's ability in the dot over weighs the slightly higher production kuznetsov has had the past 2 seasons though. which is why i come to 8 million as a fair deal but even then that is pushing it. we see a deal like mcdavid's and it changes our view point. let's look at production and what we are getting. johansen is what this franchise has been begging for. he is one of my favorite players on the team but that doesn't mean we aren't in a tough spot where he has all the leverage. I'll be happy with whatever it takes to get him signed. my point was simply he has zero cups and is not a point per game player. he doesn't deserve to get paid like it.

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07-18-2017, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
kuznetsov is a pretty great comparable in all honesty. similar in size. different leagues but 2 months apart in age. johansen is 2 months younger and has an extra season or 2 under his belt. points per game for kuznetsov is around 0.697 and johansen is 0.665 .. so merely upon a that view point, kuznetsov is a more productive player on the score sheet. johansen's ability in the dot over weigh the slightly higher production kuznetsov has had the past 2 seasons though. which is why i come to 8 million as a fair deal but even then that is pushing it. we see a deal like mcdavid's and it changes our view point. let's look at production and what we are getting. johansen is what this franchise has been begging for. he is one of my favorite players on the team but that doesn't mean we aren't in a tough spot where he has all the leverage. I'll be happy with whatever it takes to get him signed. my point was simply he has zero cups and is not a point per game player. he doesn't deserve to get paid like it.
If he had those things, he would be a 9.5-11M guy not 8-8.5. The way the salary cap is going up, higher skilled players are going to be adding .5M to 1.5M extra to their new salaries every 1-2 years.

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07-18-2017, 08:26 AM
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If he had those things, he would be a 9.5-11M guy not 8-8.5. The way the salary cap is going up, higher skilled players are going to be adding .5M to 1.5M extra to their new salaries every 1-2 years.
agreed about salaries going up and they have. toews, Kane, and kopitar signed for 10 million or up and we see what it did to those franchises. kane is only one worth the money. kopitar was gonna get whatever he wanted after the cup wins. ovechkin gets around 9.5 million and has been the best goal scorer in the league since his rookie year. then you have jamie benn, crosby and malkin at 8.7, Perry and stamkos around 8.5 and getzlaf at 8.2. vorachek and giroux signed for 8.2.

there are 11 forwards that make above 8 million in cap hit in 2017-2018. kane, toews, kopitar, crosby, malkin, perry, getzlaf, ovechkin, and benn are 9 of the 11. all have won cups, dominated the league at some point, or won major awards. giroux has scored at 0.88 points per game. significantly more productive. voracek got paid off a career year 2 years ago where he registered 81 points.

i just don't see where johansen measures up even with the salaries going up. again 8 million a year is a very fair deal for johansen and i think that's what he ultimately gets.

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07-18-2017, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
kuznetsov is a pretty great comparable in all honesty. he signed for 8 years / 62,400,000 million .. 7.8 AAV ..similar in size. different leagues but 2 months apart in age. johansen is 2 months younger and has an extra season or 2 under his belt. points per game for kuznetsov is around 0.697 and johansen is 0.665 .. so merely upon that view point, kuznetsov is a more productive player on the score sheet. johansen's ability in the dot over weighs the slightly higher production kuznetsov has had the past 2 seasons though. which is why i come to 8 million as a fair deal but even then that is pushing it. we see a deal like mcdavid's and it changes our view point. let's look at production and what we are getting. johansen is what this franchise has been begging for. he is one of my favorite players on the team but that doesn't mean we aren't in a tough spot where he has all the leverage. I'll be happy with whatever it takes to get him signed. my point was simply he has zero cups and is not a point per game player. he doesn't deserve to get paid like it.
Contracts are about more than just stats, if they weren't then signing players would just be a spreadsheet.

Fact is we have no other option, we will pay for that. He just came off a very good playoff run and helped us get to the SCF, we will pay for that. He is playing the most expensive position in the league, once again we will pay for that.

He is asking for roughly 4 million a season less than the highest paid at his position. He is asking for several million per season less than guys like Toews and Crosby. Right now he is essentially a 2nd tier 1C, and basically that is what he is asking to be paid as.

You don't pay him, he signs his tender, play a out the season and then finds somewhere that will pay him. Based on his play, combined with our depth 8.5 million isn't a steal, but it ain't getting bent over either.

And yes he has all the leverage.

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Old
07-18-2017, 08:51 AM
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Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse View Post
you people kill me. let's reply with a response instead of a silly attack on someone's credibility. respond why he is worth it. i never said poile sucks from recent memory and applauded majority of his moves. try contributing next time.

and to the reply above this meaningless one, agreed. we have no choice. my point is he isn't worth 8.5 million a year and up. 8 million max. I've seen zero from his play or analytics that would warrant a possible 8 year 72 million deal. it's not my money so i guess don't much care. it could matter when it comes to some of our better deals coming off the books though. josi, ekholm, and Ellis.
when you try to make a point like this, the question becomes, are you willing to lose him for that extra 0.5 mil per year? Because the market doesn't give a flip about analytics, the market is determined by what someone is willing to pay.

If negotiations break down and someone offer sheets him at an AAV of 8.5 or even 9, do you walk and take the draft picks? Of course not, you cant set the franchise back that much over 0.5 to 1 million AAV.

so all your analytics mean squat. Whats going to determine what Johansen signs for is what number he is willing to take and what number Poile is willing to walk away from

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