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Poll: Will Nylander sign this offseason?

View Poll Results: Will Nylander get the contract this offseason?
Yes, and it's the right move to lock him up ASAP. 38 33.04%
Yes, but it's a mistake and they should wait until next offseason. 3 2.61%
No, but it's better to sign all 3 at once anyway. 17 14.78%
No, and it's a mistake to not sign him now. 57 49.57%
Voters: 115. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
09-08-2017, 12:03 PM
  #126
SprDaVE
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"Hey, we want to re-sign you long-term. Ok?"

"Sounds good."

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09-08-2017, 12:05 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by SprDaVE View Post
"Hey, we want to re-sign you long-term. Ok?"

"Sounds good."
"Just sign here" lol.

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Old
09-08-2017, 12:05 PM
  #128
BlueBaron
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I'd like to see us lock him and Marner at 6Mil for 8 years but if I am Nylander I would not do an extension until after next season with the hopes of another bump in his numbers.

If we do get them both at 6 we will have thee flexibility to play with a lot of ideas. Keeping JVR, chasing a Doughty or Taveres.

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09-08-2017, 12:08 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Pheasant the peasant View Post
Bo Horvat - GP82 G16 A24 P40
Alex Wennberg - GP80 G13 A46 P59
Leon Draisaitl - GP82 G29 A48 P77

Horvat signed 6 years at 5.5 Million per year. Wennberg signed 6 years x 4.9 per year. Drai got 8 years at 8.5 per.

Nylander just put up GP81 G22 A39 P61. He's a whole lot closer to Horvat and Wennberg than to Draisaitl. Getting him at 5.5 or less is not going to happen, obviously. But he should be in the 6-6.5 million range, in my opinion. I trust Lou to get it done for the right number.
I think he's right there with drasaitl who the oilers over paid for.

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09-08-2017, 12:15 PM
  #130
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Originally Posted by Pheasant the peasant View Post
Bo Horvat - GP82 G16 A24 P40
Alex Wennberg - GP80 G13 A46 P59
Leon Draisaitl - GP82 G29 A48 P77

Horvat signed 6 years at 5.5 Million per year. Wennberg signed 6 years x 4.9 per year. Drai got 8 years at 8.5 per.

Nylander just put up GP81 G22 A39 P61. He's a whole lot closer to Horvat and Wennberg than to Draisaitl. Getting him at 5.5 or less is not going to happen, obviously. But he should be in the 6-6.5 million range, in my opinion. I trust Lou to get it done for the right number.
Those Wennberg and Horvat numbers aren't from their rookie seasons. Nylander's closer to Draisaitl than either of those guys though he should get a bit less than him.

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09-08-2017, 12:21 PM
  #131
Trapper
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Originally Posted by Menzinger View Post
Those Wennberg and Horvat numbers aren't from their rookie seasons. Nylander's closer to Draisaitl than either of those guys though he should get a bit less than him.
2 of those players play center exclusively. The other plays center but also wing with McDavid.
Horvat and Wennberg are 22, Nylander is now 21. So this year Willy be comparable to last year Horvat and Wennberg in terms of contract due. We will see how he performs. Also keeping in mind that he will most likely be performing exclusively as a winger. A repeat 60 point season leaves him closer to the Wennberg category.

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09-08-2017, 01:35 PM
  #132
Pheasant the peasant
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Originally Posted by Menzinger View Post
Those Wennberg and Horvat numbers aren't from their rookie seasons. Nylander's closer to Draisaitl than either of those guys though he should get a bit less than him.
Oh, I agree. There's never going to be a perfect comparable. But Horvat and Wennberg both signed recently, early 20s, 60~ish points, still under team controll, 6 year deals instead of a bridge. It's pretty close.

If he waits until next off-season to sign, and he gets 70-80 points, then maybe he gets a lot more. But if they're really negotiation a contract now, then I don't see how Nylander can expect 7 million. So somewhere above Horvat/Wennberg puts him at 6-6.5 pretty safely.

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09-08-2017, 01:40 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Pheasant the peasant View Post
Oh, I agree. There's never going to be a perfect comparable. But Horvat and Wennberg both signed recently, early 20s, 60~ish points, still under team controll, 6 year deals instead of a bridge. It's pretty close.

If he waits until next off-season to sign, and he gets 70-80 points, then maybe he gets a lot more. But if they're really negotiation a contract now, then I don't see how Nylander can expect 7 million. So somewhere above Horvat/Wennberg puts him at 6-6.5 pretty safely.
Again it depends on Nylander. Forget rookie season for a moment. Horvat and Wennberg are only 1 year older. If all 3 end up as 60 point players (not saying it wont change) then it doesn't matter if it took 1 year or 2 years to be a steady/yearly 60 point guy.
So if a 22 year old 60 point center is paid 4.9, what is the difference in salary for a 21 year old 60 point winger. If Nylander puts up 60 points again (just saying).
Is it 6.5?

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09-08-2017, 02:45 PM
  #134
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Nylander has nothing to gain by signing now. It would only benefit the Leafs.

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09-08-2017, 02:58 PM
  #135
Menzinger
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Originally Posted by Trapper View Post
Again it depends on Nylander. Forget rookie season for a moment. Horvat and Wennberg are only 1 year older. If all 3 end up as 60 point players (not saying it wont change) then it doesn't matter if it took 1 year or 2 years to be a steady/yearly 60 point guy.
So if a 22 year old 60 point center is paid 4.9, what is the difference in salary for a 21 year old 60 point winger. If Nylander puts up 60 points again (just saying).
Is it 6.5?
The thing is though, 7ish million is more in the range of what a consistent 60ish point player is than 5ish million. I think there's a lot more question marks about Wennbergs ability to repeat that type of production than Nylander is too.

The post ELC salary deal is based off more potential and likelihood of reaching that potential than what they've proven so far anyways.

I'll be very happy if he signs for around 6.5 but I'm not holding my breath. Especially when you've got guys like Tarasenko getting huge deals based on potential too.

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09-08-2017, 03:01 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by Pheasant the peasant View Post
Oh, I agree. There's never going to be a perfect comparable. But Horvat and Wennberg both signed recently, early 20s, 60~ish points, still under team controll, 6 year deals instead of a bridge. It's pretty close.

If he waits until next off-season to sign, and he gets 70-80 points, then maybe he gets a lot more. But if they're really negotiation a contract now, then I don't see how Nylander can expect 7 million. So somewhere above Horvat/Wennberg puts him at 6-6.5 pretty safely.
Agreed.

This summer's overpriced contracts off ELC (Draisaitl & Johnsen at 8.5 & 8M) have us CAP nuts concerned. IMO Horvat will become #C and captain over the next year or so.
6x5.5 is a steal IMO.

Lets hope we can lock Nylander and Marner for under 7M for the long term!

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09-08-2017, 04:06 PM
  #137
nuck
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Originally Posted by Trapper View Post
2 of those players play center exclusively. The other plays center but also wing with McDavid.
Horvat and Wennberg are 22, Nylander is now 21. So this year Willy be comparable to last year Horvat and Wennberg in terms of contract due. We will see how he performs. Also keeping in mind that he will most likely be performing exclusively as a winger. A repeat 60 point season leaves him closer to the Wennberg category.
His direct comp is likely Forsberg but with a 10-15% inflationary bump.

I disagree those who say that Willy is better off signing in a year. Its as common as not to stall for a season, like Forsberg or Pat Kane. Seguin's year 3 was actually worse than year 2 by a bit. So 50-50 chance he simply doesn't get better, with the possibility of an injury or a bad season that actually reduces his leverage. If they are willing to pay $6.5M+ how much does he have to improve the make that a crappy deal? Ehlers and Pastrnak may hurt his position if they sign too far under Drai.

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09-08-2017, 04:17 PM
  #138
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Did not vote because the obvious answer is "No because Nylander will want to earn an even better deal".

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09-08-2017, 04:33 PM
  #139
Stephen
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Originally Posted by Volcanologist View Post
Nylander has nothing to gain by signing now. It would only benefit the Leafs.
Not entirely. He could (knock on wood) get hurt or have a big down year also.

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09-08-2017, 04:57 PM
  #140
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Not entirely. He could (knock on wood) get hurt or have a big down year also.
He, his agent, father, fathers friends etc know how good he is. If you think he is unaware of his ability you haven't heard him talk. He probably believes he could be some teams franchise player, and tbh, he probably has more of a chance than Mitch that way.

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09-08-2017, 05:03 PM
  #141
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If the Leafs were smart they would move Willie to #3C behind Matthews and Kadri and play him his 16 minutes a night.

He would put up (Bozak like points) 55ish based on TOI/g and opportunity (linemates) and then the Leafs would sign him based on his position and production on the depth chart accordingly for the rate of pay of a #3C.

If they however play him on the wing riding shotgun with Matthews then he will be able to pile up the points and want to get paid for his production as a winger before changing positions and roles thereafter.

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09-08-2017, 05:14 PM
  #142
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If the Leafs were smart they would move Willie to #3C behind Matthews and Kadri and play him his 16 minutes a night.

He would put up (Bozak like points) 55ish based on TOI/g and opportunity (linemates) and then the Leafs would sign him based on his position and production on the depth chart accordingly for the rate of pay of a #3C.

If they however play him on the wing riding shotgun with Matthews then he will be able to pile up the points and want to get paid for his production as a winger before changing positions and roles thereafter.
This will force a bridge deal situation rather than locking him up 8yrs. Pros and cons. At the end of the day, you just want to develop the player the best you can rather than squander a year by giving a player less optimal minutes who may do well with more. The dollars will work out in the end for the better or worse.

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09-08-2017, 05:25 PM
  #143
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Originally Posted by MrVisser View Post
This will force a bridge deal situation rather than locking him up 8yrs. Pros and cons. At the end of the day, you just want to develop the player the best you can rather than squander a year by giving a player less optimal minutes who may do well with more. The dollars will work out in the end for the better or worse.
Depending on the player it gets done all the time. Kadri just had it happen. You're right though, you want the best outcome for the team. Kadri is an awesome player, Nylander looks that and beyond

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09-08-2017, 05:53 PM
  #144
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I think he's right there with drasaitl who the oilers over paid for.
Agree.

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09-08-2017, 06:11 PM
  #145
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
If the Leafs were smart they would move Willie to #3C behind Matthews and Kadri and play him his 16 minutes a night.

He would put up (Bozak like points) 55ish based on TOI/g and opportunity (linemates) and then the Leafs would sign him based on his position and production on the depth chart accordingly for the rate of pay of a #3C.

If they however play him on the wing riding shotgun with Matthews then he will be able to pile up the points and want to get paid for his production as a winger before changing positions and roles thereafter.
Hey lets put Matthews on the fourth line too. Clearly that's even smarter.

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09-08-2017, 07:02 PM
  #146
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
If the Leafs were smart they would move Willie to #3C behind Matthews and Kadri and play him his 16 minutes a night.

He would put up (Bozak like points) 55ish based on TOI/g and opportunity (linemates) and then the Leafs would sign him based on his position and production on the depth chart accordingly for the rate of pay of a #3C.

If they however play him on the wing riding shotgun with Matthews then he will be able to pile up the points and want to get paid for his production as a winger before changing positions and roles thereafter.
Not quite, Nylander's skill level is well above Bozaks.

If he was given similar usage he may even increase his scoring considering the Bozak line got the most sheltered (ie offensive) icetime of the top three lines under Babcock. I think you're being more than a little bit disingenuous suggesting Nylander was the product of Matthews in terms of production. Marner got similar usage to Bozak, yet produced more - as did JVR.

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09-08-2017, 07:05 PM
  #147
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I think he's right there with drasaitl who the oilers over paid for.
Agreed, why did the Oilers feel the need to break the market trend and go so high on McDavid and Drai?

They set a new bar for all other young guys to point to when their first two years are up, and it's just a kick in the balls to the other teams with young guys to lock up. They did this already with the RNH, Eberle, Hall contracts too.

I guess they know they have to overpay to keep their players in the Siberia of Canada

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09-09-2017, 06:42 PM
  #148
Stephen
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He, his agent, father, fathers friends etc know how good he is. If you think he is unaware of his ability you haven't heard him talk. He probably believes he could be some teams franchise player, and tbh, he probably has more of a chance than Mitch that way.
I'm counting on him being a franchise player for the Leafs anyway but there's just always going to be risk.

For the record, I've always thought Nylander will end up better than Marner, not that it really matters when we have both.

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09-09-2017, 06:44 PM
  #149
Stephen
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
If the Leafs were smart they would move Willie to #3C behind Matthews and Kadri and play him his 16 minutes a night.

He would put up (Bozak like points) 55ish based on TOI/g and opportunity (linemates) and then the Leafs would sign him based on his position and production on the depth chart accordingly for the rate of pay of a #3C.

If they however play him on the wing riding shotgun with Matthews then he will be able to pile up the points and want to get paid for his production as a winger before changing positions and roles thereafter.
I fail to see how any of that is smart when Nylander looks like he could be poised to be a better center than Kadri as of this fall. Kadri falling to third in Bozak's spot would be ideal, allowing us to graduate more wing prospects to fill the gaps.

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09-09-2017, 07:00 PM
  #150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
If the Leafs were smart they would move Willie to #3C behind Matthews and Kadri and play him his 16 minutes a night.

He would put up (Bozak like points) 55ish based on TOI/g and opportunity (linemates) and then the Leafs would sign him based on his position and production on the depth chart accordingly for the rate of pay of a #3C.

If they however play him on the wing riding shotgun with Matthews then he will be able to pile up the points and want to get paid for his production as a winger before changing positions and roles thereafter.
Sorry but this belongs in the unpopular opinions thread.

So we don't want to see Willie pile up points? lol

I'm sure the Leafs however smart they are would never do it. If they did, I could see Nylander asking for a trade in the mid-season for this insult plan.

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