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NHL Draft - Prospects Discuss hockey prospects from all over the world and the NHL Draft.

Realistic potentials for your team's prospects

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Old
09-11-2017, 09:53 PM
  #126
MardyBum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetsetter View Post
My only disagreement with this list is: Tucker Poolman is a top 4 Dman
Could be, is also 24 and was coming off double shoulder surgery at the time. I mean he's older than Trouba, so a bottom pairing guy would be great.

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Old
09-11-2017, 09:58 PM
  #127
Aceboogie
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Originally Posted by Double Dion View Post
He overstated it, but Calgary has 3 guys who I think anyone would be foolish to bet against being NHL top 4 defensemen. Valimaki, Fox and Andersson are all surefire NHLers. Kylington is a wild card. Skates like Erik Karlsson with good size and the brain of a 2nd pairing beer leaguer. If he figures it out he's got a high ceiling, but odds are long on him figuring it out in my opinion.

I think Kulak will be a bottom pairing NHL defenseman too. We have no one outside of Jankowski that I think in a surefire NHLer in the forward ranks though. Even Jankowski is only a sure bet to play bottom 6 minutes with a 2nd line upside.
Key thing is they have upside potential to be NHLers (and good ones). I would never bet a prospect, specifically a 2nd round or later is a surefire NHLer. How many of these guys have been good to great in AHL or NCAA or Chl and flamed out. For instance Hickey and wotherspoon before him were surefire NHLers. Same with guys like Muslims or Tuebert. So no I wouldn't bet that from that crop there is a good NHLer but I wouldn't bet they will all be NHLers

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Old
09-12-2017, 02:19 AM
  #128
Double Dion
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Originally Posted by Aceboogie View Post
Key thing is they have upside potential to be NHLers (and good ones). I would never bet a prospect, specifically a 2nd round or later is a surefire NHLer. How many of these guys have been good to great in AHL or NCAA or Chl and flamed out. For instance Hickey and wotherspoon before him were surefire NHLers. Same with guys like Muslims or Tuebert. So no I wouldn't bet that from that crop there is a good NHLer but I wouldn't bet they will all be NHLers
I never thought Wotherspoon or Hickey were surefire bets to be NHLers. Don't know how you can do what Fox did to the NCAA as an 18 year and not play in the NHL. Don't know how you can do what Valimaki did in his draft year and not play in the NHL. Andersson is good enough in my opinion to play in the league right now and would be for a lot of teams. Best goal differential and shot metrics of any defenseman in the AHL as a rookie. Guys like Teubert, Wotherspoon and Hickey (assuming you mean Brandon) were never anywhere near these guys. Draft position is a silly way to assume the worth of players. Lots of defensemen taken in the 2nd round are surefire NHLers. Weber, Subban, Lidstrom ect all projected as surefire NHLers in their draft +1 seasons. None of Hickey, Wotherspoon or Teubert were great any season. Teubert had 23 points and couldn't play defense in his draft year. It was just a bad pick. In 3 NCAA seasons combined an older Hickey hasn't hit the point totals Fox did in one season at a younger age. Wotherspoon never projected as anything more than a bottom pairing/pk defender if that. He had 12 points his draft year, although he was sound defensively. Valimaki put up 61 points (over ppg) and is excellent defensively at the same age. Fox destroyed the NCAA scoring 1.2 PPG and leading his team in +/- as an 18 year old as a defenseman. Forwards rarely do that, even Gaudreau didn't at 18.

Kylington I can see busting. I actually think he will as he has zero hockey sense. But if he doesn't he has size and skates as well as anyone I've ever seen.


Last edited by Double Dion: 09-12-2017 at 02:32 AM.
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Old
09-12-2017, 12:53 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Randy Randerson View Post
again, I'll ask which of those aren't realistic ceilings?

and again I'll point out that in a thread where guys like Pavel Zacha and Logan Brown are being painted as having 70pt ceilings that you only called out Leaf fans are getting as being unrealistic while we are simultaneously painting our prospects in a more conservative light than other fanbases.

If you want to talk about Liljegren, he's a guy that came into the year as the likely contender with Nolan Patrick, if that prospect doesn't have it within his ceiling to be a top pairing defender then how did he fool most of the best amateur scouts on the planet into thinking he was going to be worthy of a pick that high 9 months before his draft day?

also, Mr. Hawthorne, the ceiling you've painted Makar with is higher than what I painted Liljegren with, yet he failed to go #1 in a draft that had an exceptionally weak top end...seems an awful lot like blatant hypocrisy to me
Kiril Kabanov and Brandon Gormley were also both seen as potention #1 picks in a year with Hall and Seguin. Angelo Esposito was seen to some as the best prospect since Crosby.

How a player was viewed 9 months before their draft means absolutely nothing.

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Old
09-12-2017, 02:36 PM
  #130
Dale Best Goalie
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Originally Posted by OvermanKingGainer View Post
Calgary
Tier 1)
1) Mark Jankowski - Mikko Koivu
2) Tyler Parsons - A better puckhandling Jonathan Quick
3) Oliver Kylington - A smaller, faster Roman Josi

Tier 2
4) Adam Fox - Ryan Ellis
5) Juuso Valimaki - Oscar Klefbom with better intangibles
6) David Rittich - Michal Neuvirth
7) Rasmus Andersson - Slava Voynov

Tier 3
8) Andrew Mangiapane - Cam Atkinson
9) Dillon Dube - Andrew Cogliano
10) Brett Kulak - Alec Martinez
11) Matthew Phillips - Artemi Panarin but he has to get a hundred times stronger
12) Jon Gillies - Scott Darling
13) Spencer Foo - Lee Stempniak
14) Emile Poirier - Leo Komarov
15) Morgan Klimchuk - Michael Frolik
16) Adam Ruzicka - ?
Almost everyone will be a full-time, quality NHLer? How realistic...

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Old
09-12-2017, 03:00 PM
  #131
Randy Randerson
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Originally Posted by nbwingsfan View Post
Kiril Kabanov and Brandon Gormley were also both seen as potention #1 picks in a year with Hall and Seguin. Angelo Esposito was seen to some as the best prospect since Crosby.

How a player was viewed 9 months before their draft means absolutely nothing.
I guess by that token, draft ranking or selection order of any kind means absolutely nothing right? Jamie Benn was a 5th rounder, MSL was undrafted and Yakupov went #1

the most recent comp in terms of pedigree, range of fall and expected upside is Chychrun, look how that has gone so far. We won't know if he's Esposito or Chychrun for a while yet

I'm not suggesting that Liljegren is some kind of a lock to be an impact NHL'er or an NHL'er at all, but to think his tools don't point to a high ceiling if he meets his potential is just silly.

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Old
09-12-2017, 03:27 PM
  #132
Mathew Barzal
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Canucks.

Horvat: Poor mans Bergeron.

Boeser: Thomas Vanek minus the insane peak.

Juolevi: Dan Hamhuis

Virtanen: Kyle Beach

Elias Pettersson: Nugent Hopkins

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Old
09-12-2017, 04:48 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Randy Randerson View Post
I guess by that token, draft ranking or selection order of any kind means absolutely nothing right? Jamie Benn was a 5th rounder, MSL was undrafted and Yakupov went #1

the most recent comp in terms of pedigree, range of fall and expected upside is Chychrun, look how that has gone so far. We won't know if he's Esposito or Chychrun for a while yet

I'm not suggesting that Liljegren is some kind of a lock to be an impact NHL'er or an NHL'er at all, but to think his tools don't point to a high ceiling if he meets his potential is just silly.



But that's the thing. On draft day, all the teams knew about Liljegren's upside, and 17 teams chose someone else. So obviously they think the guy they picked will be better. It certainly doesn't make them right, but that's what they think.

Reality is, draft day is 1 moment in time that teams are asked to project kids for their entire career. As we saw, 9 months earlier, the list would look different. And 9 months from now, it will look different again. ALL the kids now can throw draft rankings out the window and focus on getting better. Improve on their strengths and more importantly their weaknesses. Liljegren is no different.

And if I was a Leaf fan, I would be happy to have grabbed a RHD with upside. It doesn't mean he is a steal. Time will tell what he becomes. But given their needs, he was a perfect guy to be available. He will have a few years to work on his deficiencies and Leafs Mgt won't rush him which I think will help him the most. Him being able to spend a few years in the AHL with lots of close eyes on him will help him. He will get lots of feedback from professional coaches as opposed to CHL guys.

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Old
09-12-2017, 05:24 PM
  #134
Randy Randerson
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Originally Posted by Tripod View Post
[/B]

But that's the thing. On draft day, all the teams knew about Liljegren's upside, and 17 teams chose someone else. So obviously they think the guy they picked will be better. It certainly doesn't make them right, but that's what they think.

Reality is, draft day is 1 moment in time that teams are asked to project kids for their entire career. As we saw, 9 months earlier, the list would look different. And 9 months from now, it will look different again. ALL the kids now can throw draft rankings out the window and focus on getting better. Improve on their strengths and more importantly their weaknesses. Liljegren is no different.

And if I was a Leaf fan, I would be happy to have grabbed a RHD with upside. It doesn't mean he is a steal. Time will tell what he becomes. But given their needs, he was a perfect guy to be available. He will have a few years to work on his deficiencies and Leafs Mgt won't rush him which I think will help him the most. Him being able to spend a few years in the AHL with lots of close eyes on him will help him. He will get lots of feedback from professional coaches as opposed to CHL guys.
I won't disagree that Liljegren didn't keep the hype train rolling in his draft year or he would have gone much higher, probably #1 if he trended as expected with Patrick having a bad year and still managing to go #2.

I think he probably has a higher risk to be a 3rd pairing dman than guy like Valimaki and Brannstrom if he doesn't stop making the "low IQ" plays in his own end, but I think he also has more upside than that tier if he puts it all together - and both of those guys in their respective prospect threads have been touted as having first pairing/#1 upside so I don't see what the issue is in thinking that Liljegren has that same kind of upside. The Cal Foote pick ahead of him is a bit perplexing to me, even though he's a really smart player his skating could mean that he's never an NHL'er where Liljegren's skating might be the reason he makes the NHL even if he doesn't put the mental game together

I'm very happy that he was available where we got him, even if he busts, because of the position of need and potential ceiling. I do think there will be some regret from teams that passed on him if he has a big year in the AHL and that he could move way up the prospect rankings, that series of events would support the idea that the mono had a big effect on him last year. And if not, still a good player to have in the system as a project

I hope that he proves to be coachable, seems like the "low IQ" is a bit of a mislabelling to me and should more aptly be "poor decision making" or "high risk, low reward decisions in his own end" - if those decisions are conscious ones where he sees the less risky option, you'd think that they're correctable

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Old
09-12-2017, 06:09 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Randy Randerson View Post
I hope that he proves to be coachable, seems like the "low IQ" is a bit of a mislabelling to me and should more aptly be "poor decision making" or "high risk, low reward decisions in his own end" - if those decisions are conscious ones where he sees the less risky option, you'd think that they're correctable
His low-IQ plays, at least on NA ice, scream jitters/adaptation to me more than anything. Like gambling for a 50/50 loose puck in his own end- when he should just gave it up and played the body. Or on occasion, misjudging his time and space on the small-ice- really, he's looked far better exiting the zone with his skating and short passes but at our level of expectation, he should be making the correct exit every-time on the small-ice.

Basically fits the bill of a high-event, high-risk D-man. He can make some highlight reel plays and showcase his tools or he can make a mental error and look equally bad.

What this means is, like any prospect, he is fallible. But I still think as highly of him as before the Leafs drafted him. His tools are just extremely high-end to me for a D prospect (people overlook things like how much of a plus slap/snap/wrist point shot he has even with little time/space...or how crafty he is with his shot-fake...or his ability to make short, saucer passes under pressure, among other facets).

I think, fundamentally, his tools are all there. His mental game and reads just have to catch up, like any d-man prospect. Every d-man has to learn to adjust to the NA ice, speed and pace of the NHL, it's not unique to Liljegren.

I'd be more worried if there were fundamental issues with his skillset/tools. Which I don't see- similar to Sergachev in his preseason affair last year. Everyone who hated the Habs were calling him a bust because he mistimed some reads or closed the gap defensively too slow/quickly.

There are/is revered d-men prospects that I've seen, in the last week alone in their rookie tournaments that scream more red flag to me- but I won't name any names. Fundamental issues in their tools (skating, movement, pivoting, etc.) that go beyond hockey IQ. But you wouldn't know if you didn't watch the full game or only read this section of the board. In comparison, Liljegren is under a microscope and you have a large subset of people over-analyzing every facet of his game- both on the extreme optimistic and pessimistic end.

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Old
09-12-2017, 07:29 PM
  #136
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Canucks:

Elias Pettersson: Major boom or bust candidate. Will predict Sedin-like career of taking several years to move up the lineup and then being one of the better players in the league for a short peak, then slowing down.

Brock Boeser: Consistent 20 goal scorer with possible peak at 30, probably not a lot more than 50 points a season.

Bo Horvat: 1C who progressively gets better, Bertuzzi-esque power forward, won't lead the league in points or probably ever be top 15 but will be solid top liner.

Olli Juolevi: Edler-esque minute muncher and decent D, #1 or 2 on a bad team but ideally a 2 or 3.

Thatcher Demko: Also boom or bust here. Could be like how Markstrom has turned out, struggling to hold a starting goalie job, might have a few okay years but not one of the league's best.

Jake Virtanen: 3rd or 4th line forward.

- Genius out

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Old
09-12-2017, 09:00 PM
  #137
Randy Randerson
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Originally Posted by firstemperor View Post
His low-IQ plays, at least on NA ice, scream jitters/adaptation to me more than anything. Like gambling for a 50/50 loose puck in his own end- when he should just gave it up and played the body. Or on occasion, misjudging his time and space on the small-ice- really, he's looked far better exiting the zone with his skating and short passes but at our level of expectation, he should be making the correct exit every-time on the small-ice.

Basically fits the bill of a high-event, high-risk D-man. He can make some highlight reel plays and showcase his tools or he can make a mental error and look equally bad.

What this means is, like any prospect, he is fallible. But I still think as highly of him as before the Leafs drafted him. His tools are just extremely high-end to me for a D prospect (people overlook things like how much of a plus slap/snap/wrist point shot he has even with little time/space...or how crafty he is with his shot-fake...or his ability to make short, saucer passes under pressure, among other facets).

I think, fundamentally, his tools are all there. His mental game and reads just have to catch up, like any d-man prospect. Every d-man has to learn to adjust to the NA ice, speed and pace of the NHL, it's not unique to Liljegren.

I'd be more worried if there were fundamental issues with his skillset/tools. Which I don't see- similar to Sergachev in his preseason affair last year. Everyone who hated the Habs were calling him a bust because he mistimed some reads or closed the gap defensively too slow/quickly.

There are/is revered d-men prospects that I've seen, in the last week alone in their rookie tournaments that scream more red flag to me- but I won't name any names. Fundamental issues in their tools (skating, movement, pivoting, etc.) that go beyond hockey IQ. But you wouldn't know if you didn't watch the full game or only read this section of the board. In comparison, Liljegren is under a microscope and you have a large subset of people over-analyzing every facet of his game- both on the extreme optimistic and pessimistic end.
yep, I don't disagree. I would have said the same about Gardiner and he really hasn't been able to get rid of all the bad decisions, but he's turned into a pretty good player even with the warts. I still think that most of Gardiner's mistakes in his own end should be so easy to avoid but he seems to fall into the same pits all the time...hope that Liljegren is more easily coached into where to take risks and where to make safer plays and where to try his luck, could be a really useful player in a huge area of need for us

I do think this management regime is better equipped to keep the media pressure away from the prospects, so hopefully he doesn't feel the microscope

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Old
09-12-2017, 09:34 PM
  #138
Lays
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Originally Posted by Dale Best Goalie View Post
Almost everyone will be a full-time, quality NHLer? How realistic...
I hope that was a stylistic comparison because if not...

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Old
09-12-2017, 09:37 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by HockeyAnalystGenius View Post
Canucks:

Elias Pettersson: Major boom or bust candidate. Will predict Sedin-like career of taking several years to move up the lineup and then being one of the better players in the league for a short peak, then slowing down.

Brock Boeser: Consistent 20 goal scorer with possible peak at 30, probably not a lot more than 50 points a season.

Bo Horvat: 1C who progressively gets better, Bertuzzi-esque power forward, won't lead the league in points or probably ever be top 15 but will be solid top liner.

Olli Juolevi: Edler-esque minute muncher and decent D, #1 or 2 on a bad team but ideally a 2 or 3.

Thatcher Demko: Also boom or bust here. Could be like how Markstrom has turned out, struggling to hold a starting goalie job, might have a few okay years but not one of the league's best.

Jake Virtanen: 3rd or 4th line forward.

- Genius out
I actually like this one.

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Old
09-12-2017, 09:48 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by HockeyAnalystGenius View Post
Canucks:

Elias Pettersson: Major boom or bust candidate. Will predict Sedin-like career of taking several years to move up the lineup and then being one of the better players in the league for a short peak, then slowing down.

Brock Boeser: Consistent 20 goal scorer with possible peak at 30, probably not a lot more than 50 points a season.

Bo Horvat: 1C who progressively gets better, Bertuzzi-esque power forward, won't lead the league in points or probably ever be top 15 but will be solid top liner.

Olli Juolevi: Edler-esque minute muncher and decent D, #1 or 2 on a bad team but ideally a 2 or 3.

Thatcher Demko: Also boom or bust here. Could be like how Markstrom has turned out, struggling to hold a starting goalie job, might have a few okay years but not one of the league's best.

Jake Virtanen: 3rd or 4th line forward.

- Genius out

Bertuzzi was 6'2 240lbs of unmovable muscle at his peak. Bo is 6'0 215.

but pretty decent list. Can't really disagree. any prospect is a boom or bust.

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Old
09-12-2017, 09:54 PM
  #141
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Man, there is going to be so many top line and top pair g dmen then soon every line will be full of first liners

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09-12-2017, 11:15 PM
  #142
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Man, there is going to be so many top line and top pair g dmen then soon every line will be full of first liners
The NHL better look out for the Flames over the next 12 years

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09-12-2017, 11:25 PM
  #143
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I'll take a stab at this.



Dermott: Top 4 dman. I think he has potential to be more, but at this point in time I think he's a safe bet to be a steady two way top 4 guy.

Liljegren: Again, I think it's reasonable to project Timothy as a top 4 dman when/if he makes the jump. Kind of a wildcard for me in that I could see him falling anywhere between a bottom pairing pp specialist, to a potential top pairing #2D.

Kapanen: I see kapanen as a middle 6 winger, of a similar ilk to Connor brown but more dynamic. I don't think a 20-20 two way winger would be out of reach for him if he's given the minutes.

Grundstrom: Grundstrom is a 3rd line grinder in the making, but he's got a bit of a scoring touch to go along with his high energy. Definitely see a future in the league for him in a bottom 6 capacity.

Got lazy so only did 4. Will do more later lol.

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Old
09-12-2017, 11:58 PM
  #144
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Realistic projections -> Logan Brown 1C ... >.> .. ok.

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Old
09-13-2017, 06:11 AM
  #145
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Hmm not sure why you say such a little chance of Spring hitting 35-30. Kid oozes talent and those numbers aren't far-fetched at all.
35-30 is not a small number. Just this year only 5 players managed to do it. For example, Filip Forsberg have never reached it, Tavares reached it once. Kessel known for his shot, reached it twice. Kane, reached it once.

Its not realistic to believe that he will produce like the best wingers/players in the league.

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Old
09-13-2017, 09:16 AM
  #146
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If Kapenen is the two way player he's built up to be, putting up those kind of numbers would make him a first line talent. I personally don't see many 30 goal seasons in his future but who knows.
30G might be a reasonable peak for him, but not every season. His skating and shot are some of the best parts of his game though, and he should score quite a few goals with those tools

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09-13-2017, 09:19 AM
  #147
BetterOffWithFedorov
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Originally Posted by OvermanKingGainer View Post
Calgary
Tier 1)
1) Mark Jankowski - Mikko Koivu
2) Tyler Parsons - A better puckhandling Jonathan Quick
3) Oliver Kylington - A smaller, faster Roman Josi

Tier 2
4) Adam Fox - Ryan Ellis
5) Juuso Valimaki - Oscar Klefbom with better intangibles
6) David Rittich - Michal Neuvirth
7) Rasmus Andersson - Slava Voynov

Tier 3
8) Andrew Mangiapane - Cam Atkinson
9) Dillon Dube - Andrew Cogliano
10) Brett Kulak - Alec Martinez
11) Matthew Phillips - Artemi Panarin but he has to get a hundred times stronger
12) Jon Gillies - Scott Darling
13) Spencer Foo - Lee Stempniak
14) Emile Poirier - Leo Komarov
15) Morgan Klimchuk - Michael Frolik
16) Adam Ruzicka - ?
Pretty reasonable, but you forgot to mention how Jankowski and others will be better than their counterparts. It's underrating Fox to the point of being unrealistic to say he's not Ellis but better in every way

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Old
09-13-2017, 10:51 AM
  #148
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Calgary
Tier 1)
1) Mark Jankowski - Mikko Koivu LOL (I sure hope so, but doubt it.)
2) Tyler Parsons - A better puckhandling Jonathan Quick ( Actually spot on, high hopes for him)
3) Oliver Kylington - A smaller, faster Josi ( Lucky if he is 3rd pairing NHL'r imo.)

Tier 2
4) Adam Fox - Ryan Ellis ( again we can hope, but I doubt it)
5) Juuso Valimaki - Oscar Klefbom with better intangibles (Great comparison, out of everyone on list, he has highest ceiling)
6) David Rittich - Michal Neuvirth( Aiming high here, AHL lifer imo.)
7) Rasmus Andersson - Slava Voynov ( Again aiming high, number 5 nhl d man one day imo)

Tier 3
8) Andrew Mangiapane - Cam Atkinson ( Something about this kid does remind me of Atkinson, so let's hope.
9) Dillon Dube - Andrew Cogliano ( Absolute ceiling on him is Cogliano )
10) Brett Kulak - Alec Martinez ( Blah, no way, AHL lifer )
11) Matthew Phillips - Artemi Panarin but he has to get a hundred times stronger (See him playing overseas, no way he ever get's to Panarin level imo)
12) Jon Gillies - Scott Darling ( YEP, I agree )
13) Spencer Foo - Lee Stempniak( Jury still out wether he can make impact in NHL, time will tell.)
14) Emile Poirier - Leo Komarov ( AHL lifer )
15) Morgan Klimchuk - Michael Frolik ( AHL lifer )
16) Adam Ruzicka - ? ( AHL lifer )
How many flames do you think will be at the NHL all-star game in 2023?

Gaudreau
Monny
Tkachuk
Parsons
Fox
Valimaki
Kylington
Hamilton
...any more?

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09-13-2017, 11:28 AM
  #149
Randy Randerson
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Originally Posted by my name is Bob View Post
How many flames do you think will be at the NHL all-star game in 2023?

Gaudreau
Monny
Tkachuk
Parsons
Fox
Valimaki
Kylington
Hamilton
...any more?
MonahanFan copied and pasted another CGY fan's post, only what's in the brackets at the end of each line is MonahanFan's response

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Old
09-13-2017, 11:49 AM
  #150
my name is Bob
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Originally Posted by Randy Randerson View Post
MonahanFan copied and pasted another CGY fan's post, only what's in the brackets at the end of each line is MonahanFan's response
Apologies. Not sure how to edit that on mobile.

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