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04-20-2008, 09:03 AM
  #126
Pukboy5kroner
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 39ontheline View Post
"Cohen's thesis is that hockey fans are being mislead by the current numbers. He calls plus/minus "worthless," because so many players are given a role that emphasizes defense over scoring. He thinks giveaways and takeaways are as much a subjective mess as the nebulous "hits" category. "

http://www.thefourthperiod.com/colum...ski061119.html

I tend to agree with the expert on this one. Especially on a board where panthers fans prefer nathan horton to eric staal

Also lest we forget the hockey immortals that have led the NHL in plus minus like Marek Malik and Michael Rozival.
I'm not saying Horton is a better player than Staal. He just brings something different to the game. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Ward win the MVP for the playoffs that year? Staal didn't single handedly take a crap team to the cup.

I would just rather have a Nathan Horton, or a Dustin Brown than an Eric Staal. If we could have both players great.

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04-20-2008, 09:50 AM
  #127
39ontheline
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Originally Posted by pukboy8 View Post
I'm not saying Horton is a better player than Staal. He just brings something different to the game. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Ward win the MVP for the playoffs that year? Staal didn't single handedly take a crap team to the cup.

I would just rather have a Nathan Horton, or a Dustin Brown than an Eric Staal. If we could have both players great.
What the heck does Horton bring that staal doesnt? inconsistency???

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04-20-2008, 10:21 AM
  #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 39ontheline View Post
What the heck does Horton bring that staal doesnt? inconsistency???
I gotta agree with 39 on this one. Until Nate brings his nastiness on a regular basis, Staal is the one i would go with at this point. Like Ive said, Nate has the ability to be a clone of Heatley, at least a 40 goal/season sniper. Maybe its immaturity, maybe its content, which i hope not, but he has to be at at least 35 next year in order for us to consider it an improvement.

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04-20-2008, 08:03 PM
  #129
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read that cohen article. i still disagree about +/- but i have to agree about giveaways and takeaways. i've looked carefully at those numbers after watching a game and jotting down notes and, well, they didn't coincide at all.

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04-20-2008, 08:29 PM
  #130
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Plus Minus matters, im my opinion with a good plus good things happen when your on the ice with a bad one, that means bad things happen when you stepped on the ice.


Last edited by Acadmus: 04-20-2008 at 08:39 PM. Reason: uncalled for, probably should be trolling
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Old
04-21-2008, 12:08 AM
  #131
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To me +/- matters in the context of the team, but player's +/- can't be compared to another's on a different team.

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04-21-2008, 07:45 AM
  #132
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+/- can be compared, but it has to be in context - it's a very misused stat.

You can compare players on different teams if you also look at their comparative teams. For instance, if a team has an average +/- of +10, and a particular player is a +1, it can actually say he's probably worse defensively than a guy that's -1 on a team with an average +/- of -5 who isn't known for scoring a lot.

You have to have the complete context of a player's +/- to be able to say anything about it. Does he play with guys that score a lot? Does he score a lot but his linemates are defensively solid two-way players? Does he typically line up with the best defensemen on his team? How many goals is the team in general scoring, and how many are they allowing? How much ice time is he getting?

Looking at just the Panthers, since Olli was the leading scorer and also had the team's worst +/- it can easily be speculated he's not playing a complete game...the exact reasons why his +/- is so bad can be debated. Greg Campbell, on the other hand, had a decent season offensively for a 4th liner, as did frequent linemate Montador, yet his +/- if I'm recalling correctly was tied for 2nd worst on the team...since he doesn't get a lot of icetime, is still putting up some points, and his linemate had I think a +1, it's very possible to conclude that Campbell is a less-than-effective checking line player. Really, I wonder if he should have been put on Jokinen's line to see if they would complement each other at all? Maybe Greg's got more offensive potential than he was given credit for? Just a thought.

At any rate, any discussion of +/- must include terms like "possibly" or "probably" or "might suggest" because it's a very inexact statistic, therefore conclusions from it must be conditioned upon the assumption of certain factors - it's a discussion of probability that a certain explanation for the statistic will be correct, and not a statement of absolute fact.

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Old
04-21-2008, 08:28 AM
  #133
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Plus-minus is a good stat for defenders only as thats a telling stat on whether they are in good position and are on the ice for those goals allowed. Thats my opinion because its harder to judge the stat for forwards who may or may not be expected to play certain roles that differ from other players.

That being said, Alan is right that you have to compare it to what is surrounding the players you're talking about. If a player is on a team with a higher goals for versus goals against, then that player should be possessing a positive plus-minus or close to even. For example, Carolina was a +3 as far as goals for versus goals against this season so you would expect a guy like Staal to have a good plus-minus. Whereas Florida was a -10 in that category so you could surmise that Horton will not have as high of a plus-minus along with most of the players on the team.

I'd also take TOI into consideration when discussing this stat because if you're playing 20 mins/game, you're most likely up against the top players of the opposing team and in those situations, you'd hope that your player is at least close to even. But if you're a guy only get 6-10 mins per game then you have less opportunity to stay in the plus category as you're role is generally more defensive. If those guys can stay in the plus side while playing such a low number of mins, then you can say they are better defensively.

Last thing you can take into account is really a percentage of their points being on the PP as well. Since scoring on the PP doesn't contribute to plus-minus at all, its significant that if they are a higher scoring player with a high plus-minus to know whether they are scoring those points at even strength to help that plus-minus. Guys who are PP specialists I wouldn't expect to have a high plus-minus in general.

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