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Orpik vs. Commodore: who would you pay more?

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Old
05-28-2008, 10:53 AM
  #26
TOML
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► Commodore is an effective 1st pairing physical d-man with some offensive upside who's won a cup. 3-4mil

► Orpik is an effective 3rd pairing physical d-man with no offensive upside who hasn't won anything. 1.5-2mil

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05-28-2008, 11:59 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
I just get scared that Orpik is playing top notch because it's a contract year. I know it can be argued that Commodore may have been doing the same, but I think we've seen Commodore play better for a longer time period compared to Orpik. More of a "you know what you're going to get"...

.. either way, I want one or both on the Sabres
I wouldn't be. Orpik's entire career has been a slow, but steady progression with only one real hiccup - when he chose not to play hockey during the lockout and had a bit of trouble getting back on track developmentally. This is the player everybody knew he could become when he was drafted. Anybody saying they've never been impressed by Orpik, as someone in this thread already has, hasn't watch a single Pens playoff game.

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05-28-2008, 12:00 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TOMapleLaughs View Post
► Commodore is an effective 1st pairing physical d-man with some offensive upside who's won a cup. 3-4mil

► Orpik is an effective 3rd pairing physical d-man with no offensive upside who hasn't won anything. 1.5-2mil


Commodore a first pairing defenseman? Haha, where? In the SEL? Orpik a 3rd pairing defenseman? Where, on the US National team?

Neither guy is a first pairing defenseman but Orpik is the only one who may have a chance to play that role given his development curve.


Last edited by Chainshot: 05-28-2008 at 02:02 PM. Reason: No reason to get personal
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05-28-2008, 01:50 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fyug View Post
...but Orpik is the only one who may have a chance to play that role given his development curve.
What? Outside of both players becoming better defensively via experience (as all defensemen seem to get better with age), I don't think they'll be vastly improved over what they are now when it comes to who they are as NHL'ers.

Hard to tell. Seems like people have been over-rating Orpik lately. Commodore can be added to any team at a cheap price and would be able to fit in most team's situations. I'm still down on Commodore's durability as he seems to get injured often. It would explain his down play at time's this past season.

I can't say the same about Orpik, something bugs me. Oh, yeah, whatever team Erik Cole plays on.....I don't think Orpik will be there. He's not quite over that.

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05-28-2008, 02:01 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TOMapleLaughs View Post
► Commodore is an effective 1st pairing physical d-man with some offensive upside who's won a cup. 3-4mil

► Orpik is an effective 3rd pairing physical d-man with no offensive upside who hasn't won anything. 1.5-2mil
Nope...I don't think so...

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05-28-2008, 02:16 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TOMapleLaughs View Post
► Commodore is an effective 1st pairing physical d-man with some offensive upside who's won a cup. 3-4mil
Commodore wasn't even a first pairing defenseman on the Hurricanes, one of the worst defensive teams in the league. I doubt he's a first pairing defenseman on any team in the league that wishes to accomplish anything.

Won a Cup? Frantisek Kaberle won a Cup. If only he had a big red afro, maybe someone would give us a 1st rounder for him. It's no more ridiculous than paying Mike Commodore $4M a year.

What outside of some fluky points two years ago indicates Commodore has "offensive upside"? He has posted 13 and 14 points two of the last three seasons. Commodore's "puck-moving" consists of rimming it around the boards or banking it off the glass. His offensive zone time involves wristing weak wrist shots at defenders' legs and dumping the puck along the boards. The Hurricanes desperately needed an offensive defenseman and Commodore didn't even sniff the powerplay, despite being a RH shot (Laviolette always plays a RH shot at the right point).


Last edited by semin4captain: 05-28-2008 at 02:38 PM.
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05-28-2008, 02:54 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Storminator16 View Post
What? Outside of both players becoming better defensively via experience (as all defensemen seem to get better with age), I don't think they'll be vastly improved over what they are now when it comes to who they are as NHL'ers.

Hard to tell. Seems like people have been over-rating Orpik lately. Commodore can be added to any team at a cheap price and would be able to fit in most team's situations. I'm still down on Commodore's durability as he seems to get injured often. It would explain his down play at time's this past season.

I can't say the same about Orpik, something bugs me. Oh, yeah, whatever team Erik Cole plays on.....I don't think Orpik will be there. He's not quite over that.
Do you have any idea the strides Orpik's made this season? He's been our best defenseman in the playoffs, he's manhandled every forward he's gone up against and he's actually contributed a bit of offense here and there. He was the 18th overall pick for a reason and I don't think his development is about to suddenly stop at age 27.

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05-28-2008, 04:27 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by fyug View Post
Do you have any idea the strides Orpik's made this season? He's been our best defenseman in the playoffs, he's manhandled every forward he's gone up against and he's actually contributed a bit of offense here and there. He was the 18th overall pick for a reason and I don't think his development is about to suddenly stop at age 27.
I'd argue Gonchar, but Orpik's a solid choice for #2.

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05-28-2008, 04:44 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by doctordark View Post
I'd argue Gonchar, but Orpik's a solid choice for #2.
If Gonchar were played as a stay-at-home defenseman, I think he'd be the #1. However, the Pens have had Gonchar cheating like mad for the past month or so and Orpik has saved his butt countless times on rushes / turnovers.

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05-28-2008, 08:46 PM
  #35
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orpik(3.5)
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05-29-2008, 08:18 AM
  #36
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Did anyone see the massacre that Brooks Orpik put on last night? 4 pancake hits in 25 seconds.

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05-29-2008, 08:55 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by KenAF View Post
If Gonchar were played as a stay-at-home defenseman, I think he'd be the #1. However, the Pens have had Gonchar cheating like mad for the past month or so and Orpik has saved his butt countless times on rushes / turnovers.
No he hasn't. Gonchar's been very solid in his own end all year.

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05-29-2008, 09:27 AM
  #38
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05-29-2008, 09:29 AM
  #39
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I'd rather pay more for Orpik..

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05-29-2008, 09:34 AM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fyug View Post
Do you have any idea the strides Orpik's made this season? He's been our best defenseman in the playoffs, he's manhandled every forward he's gone up against and he's actually contributed a bit of offense here and there. He was the 18th overall pick for a reason and I don't think his development is about to suddenly stop at age 27.
You're entitled to your opinion, just as 46,846+ other members of HF are entitled to theirs. I've seen enough hockey to know "don't count your chickens before they hatch, XXX fan of team XXX". He'll get better defensively through experience, but if some team want to break the bank on him then they are fools. What's he suppose to do, become a massively better hitter than he is now? What is his major upside that I don't see?

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05-29-2008, 10:29 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Storminator16 View Post
You're entitled to your opinion, just as 46,846+ other members of HF are entitled to theirs. I've seen enough hockey to know "don't count your chickens before they hatch, XXX fan of team XXX". He'll get better defensively through experience, but if some team want to break the bank on him then they are fools. What's he suppose to do, become a massively better hitter than he is now? What is his major upside that I don't see?
I think it boils down to what's a premium in free agency?

Typically you'll see top 6 forwards and defensive defenseman get "overpaid" in the open market, because those types of players are in high demand.

Is Oprik worth $4-5 million a season? Probably not...will someone give it to him...maybe. Scott Hannan signed a four year deal at $4.5 million per last season...although he has an edge in experience and can chip in offensively a lot more than the Chiropractor. But that's the type of deal he could be looking for if he makes it to July 1st.

The biggest factor is for determining how much a free agent is worth is comparing him to the other options available. Orpik and Commodore might be the top defensive defenseman available this summer, so teams will have less options and someone will be forced to overpay. It happened last year with Roman Hamrlik, who is a really good fit in Montreal but eats up a lot cap space with his 4 year/ $22 million contract.

For the Pens, Orpik isn't worth $4 million a season (not unless they can move Ryan Whitney), but to a team with cap space and a glaring need...he easily could be.

Supply and demand at work.

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05-29-2008, 04:47 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Storminator16 View Post
You're entitled to your opinion, just as 46,846+ other members of HF are entitled to theirs. I've seen enough hockey to know "don't count your chickens before they hatch, XXX fan of team XXX". He'll get better defensively through experience, but if some team want to break the bank on him then they are fools. What's he suppose to do, become a massively better hitter than he is now? What is his major upside that I don't see?
Not all opinions are created equally. I've seen every professional game Orpik has ever played. A slow and steady growth rate which suddenly explodes into major strides at age 27 is a pretty good indication he's got room yet to grow. He'll never be a powerplay QB but I think he has a bit of offensive upside depending on the team he plays for next year. He's not Mattias Norstrom. As for other areas I expect improvement, any defenseman can get better. Hitting is really only one part of Orpik's game. As he's gotten better, he's actually hit less but his timing and sense of when to throw a check has improved tenfold. He's simply playing smarter than he has before and he still has the same physical gifts as always.

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05-30-2008, 06:07 AM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fyug View Post
Not all opinions are created equally. I've seen every professional game Orpik has ever played. A slow and steady growth rate which suddenly explodes into major strides at age 27 is a pretty good indication he's got room yet to grow.
Right, but my opinion of that is that it's a pretty good indication it's contract year.

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05-30-2008, 08:49 AM
  #44
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meh, they both play hard, they bring similar assets. Commodore is a proven winner, orpik is on his way within the next few years. They both get the job done.

The only reason I dont like orpik is because I think he crosses the line at times... but I'm pretty sure the fans dont mind as long as he is playing for your fav team.

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05-30-2008, 08:56 AM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TOMapleLaughs View Post
► Commodore is an effective 1st pairing physical d-man with some offensive upside who's won a cup. 3-4mil

► Orpik is an effective 3rd pairing physical d-man with no offensive upside who hasn't won anything. 1.5-2mil
i wish you were right, but there's no way on earth that the pens can re-sign orpik for 2 million. if he hits the open market someone will give him over 4 million. i'm really hoping shero can ink him long term at around 3-3.5 million.

he was a 2000 1st round pick and he's been getting better every year. he's been awesome in the playoffs. super physical and can skate like the wind.

they're both UFA's, and for the pens there's no doubt i'd rather have orpik. i value team speed and commodore is just slow. we already have gill(who's been great mind you) and to add commodore would be terrible. orpik's in his late 20s now and his best is yet to come.

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05-30-2008, 10:13 AM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fyug View Post
I've seen every professional game Orpik has ever played. A slow and steady growth rate which suddenly explodes into major strides at age 27 is a pretty good indication he's got room yet to grow.
I'd rank Orpik significantly higher than Commodore but making major strides in part of a season doesn't necessarily mean there is still growth.

In fact the same thing happened with Commodore in the Canes' Cup year but he has leveled back off and even regressed since then. But there are interesting parallels with Commodore and Orpik.

In your analysis of Orpik's play you failed to mention a stretch where he was a semi-regular healthy scratch and not exactly on a loaded blueline. The same thing happened with Commodore. Then Orpik gets a break when their is an injury and seems to hit his stride while being paired with Gonchar. Again, Commodore really only elevated his play when playing with the speedy Bret Hedican.

Maybe Orpik continues to improve but your linear growth suggestion isn't really correct and only time will tell whether he has fully turned a corner with his game or if it's a temporary blip. As stated though, all things considered I'd take Orpik but I wouldn't break the bank to sign him.

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05-30-2008, 10:57 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
We're talking about this on the Sabres board. Both are physical defenseman that are still relatively young and UFA's to be.

Commodore and Orpik are both 228 lbs., while Orpik is 6'2 and Commodore is 6'4. Commodore is 29, Orpik 28, and both can play gritty, mean, and physical. I'd call Commodore the more well-rounded of the two, but Orpik is a bit more intimidating physically IMO.

So your team needs physicality in the form of a guy who can play in the top-4. Which of the two would you pay more for their services? How much do you think they'll each receive? Who do you think is the better player for such a role?
Orpik will most likely command more $$$$ because of the Pens playoff run this year. If it were me I would probably also go with Orpik.

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05-30-2008, 01:14 PM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StormCast View Post
In your analysis of Orpik's play you failed to mention a stretch where he was a semi-regular healthy scratch and not exactly on a loaded blueline. The same thing happened with Commodore. Then Orpik gets a break when their is an injury and seems to hit his stride while being paired with Gonchar. Again, Commodore really only elevated his play when playing with the speedy Bret Hedican.
It's not relevant because of Therrien and his grudges. In this case, I will say that it appeared to be a good decision as it motivated Orpik. By no means did his play warrant being a healthy scratch, though.

You're also wrong about the Gonchar/Orpik thing. Last year, Orpik was on a pairing with Whitney and played fabulously, elevating Whitney's play along with playing quite well himself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by StormCast View Post
Maybe Orpik continues to improve but your linear growth suggestion isn't really correct and only time will tell whether he has fully turned a corner with his game or if it's a temporary blip. As stated though, all things considered I'd take Orpik but I wouldn't break the bank to sign him.
You just contradicted yourself. If he continues to improve, my linear growth suggestion is correct. In fact, even if he doesn't, I'm still correct, I would have just overestimated the upside he had remaining.

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05-30-2008, 01:56 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by fyug View Post
It's not relevant because of Therrien and his grudges. In this case, I will say that it appeared to be a good decision as it motivated Orpik. By no means did his play warrant being a healthy scratch, though.

You're also wrong about the Gonchar/Orpik thing. Last year, Orpik was on a pairing with Whitney and played fabulously, elevating Whitney's play along with playing quite well himself.

You just contradicted yourself. If he continues to improve, my linear growth suggestion is correct. In fact, even if he doesn't, I'm still correct, I would have just overestimated the upside he had remaining.
You seem to be looking at things selectively with the altered view of an Orpik fan. So it's irrelevant that he was a healthy scratch and you want to chalk it up to a grudge? Come on, he only got back in because Scuderi was hurt and your premise bascially is that Therrien's grudge comes and goes?

So since when does this slow, steady progress you describe include taking a step back by heading to the press box for a stretch of games? That is not linear progress because it includes his stock falling for a time and when a D is played at forward at times, as Orpik, was it's because he isn't getting it done on the blueline. It's great you are a fan but you are ignoring facts.

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