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05-29-2008, 09:11 AM
  #26
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Originally Posted by Gaebriel View Post
You have evidence to back this up? I see this opinion being thrown around all the time, but never any evidence based justification. There are plenty of players throughout history that have made the jump and done well, and plenty who haven't. I'm not sure you could even find any evidence to support that claim as you'd have to somehow look into an alternate version of reality to see if a player did better in the other situation. Sounds like nothing more than another perpetuated sports myth. The only reasonable thing you could say is that it depends on the player, but ultimately that's somewhat of a uselessly obvious statement.

It's also amusing to me when the same people praise young players for playing in junior leagues way above their age. Wasn't Frolik one of those? Clearly his 'growth' was permanently stunted.
Usually unless they are phenoms(like Crosby & Ovechkin) a prospects development is really slowed if they are brought up to play on a team that is not playing well. They are counted on more and that really gets in their heads when they are counted on and don't produce. And I am talking about wins also and not just points.

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05-29-2008, 09:14 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by SPG View Post
No, Frolik was not an overager in junior last year.
Frolik was strongly hyped at the start of last season, then saw his stock fall after a mediocre season in the Czech Elite League. Loaded with talent and offensive creativity, the shifty, versatile Czech forward has incredible offensive upside, and has often seen his skill set compared favorably with Jaromir Jagr. Frolik decided to come to North America this fall, and he will suit up for the young, talented Rimouski Oceanic squad in the QMJHL. He will see quality minutes and be able to adapt to the North American game early in his career. He played as a boy amongst men for the past two seasons, and thus his experiences in the Czech league should help make for an easy transition with Rimouski. The sky is the limit for Frolik offensively, however one must be cautious not to over-hype him.

I'm not sure what that means, but at any rate it's unimportant to my original point.

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05-29-2008, 09:21 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Beezer View Post
Usually unless they are phenoms(like Crosby & Ovechkin) a prospects development is really slowed if they are brought up to play on a team that is not playing well. They are counted on more and that really gets in their heads when they are counted on and don't produce. And I am talking about wins also and not just points.
You're making 'a priori' assumptions, not analysis. Anecdotal evidence tainted by confirmation bias is not sufficient to prove your point. I'm not trying to be an ass, I'm just making a point.

I guess you could try and do a statistical analysis of all players who spent their first pro year in the AHL and their second in the NHL and contrast them with players who spent no time in the AHL, however even that would be prone to error because you would naturally expect players who spend no time in the AHL to be more talented. The whole idea of a prospect being 'ruined by being rushed' assumes that time spent in the AHL affects a player's talent. I would think that to make that statement you would have to prove that it's not the other way around; that a player's talent is a predictor of time spent in the AHL.

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05-29-2008, 09:58 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Gaebriel View Post
Frolik was strongly hyped at the start of last season, then saw his stock fall after a mediocre season in the Czech Elite League. Loaded with talent and offensive creativity, the shifty, versatile Czech forward has incredible offensive upside, and has often seen his skill set compared favorably with Jaromir Jagr. Frolik decided to come to North America this fall, and he will suit up for the young, talented Rimouski Oceanic squad in the QMJHL. He will see quality minutes and be able to adapt to the North American game early in his career. He played as a boy amongst men for the past two seasons, and thus his experiences in the Czech league should help make for an easy transition with Rimouski. The sky is the limit for Frolik offensively, however one must be cautious not to over-hype him.

I'm not sure what that means, but at any rate it's unimportant to my original point.
He played in the Men's Czech League before he was drafted is what the quote in bold meant. Playing with/against players his own age in major junior might be looked at as a step backwards, but everything in NA is different (more games, smaller rinks, more physical, different language), so I think it was a good decision to send him there to learn everything and gain confidence ala Radulov.

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05-29-2008, 10:10 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Race against NINE View Post
GP, GR's blog entry makes it very plain that it is his own speculation - not anything he's learned from Panthers' brass - that there will be buyouts in order to get these guys on the team. Since when is George Richards the team's GM? No offense meant to him, but his speculation isn't much of a step above that of any of us on this board. Weren't you contending these prospects wouldn't even get signed prior to this? Even I was nervous as the deadline approached, but it proved to be completely unfounded.
Well, in my post, I said "GR thinks", which means it was his speculation, not fact. The only reason I thought it note worthy is a lot of people say they don't believe something unless GR writes it, not one of the other writers, so that would carry extra weight with some people. And I never thought any of the unsigned prospects wouldn't get signed. The only signing I have said I have concerns about is Bouwmeester and that concern isn't because of the willingness of the Cats to spend the money but if Bouwmeester wants to remain with the franchise. If it comes down to money, I have no doubt that Bouw will remain a Panther.

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05-29-2008, 10:14 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Rattrick View Post
Weren't you the one saying it wouldn't get done and using the possibility that Frolik might not get signed as a reason to bash JM?
Second time I was accused of this. Someone please point out the post that I said anything close to that. Apology accepted in advance.

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05-29-2008, 10:17 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Georgia Panther View Post
Second time I was accused of this. Someone please point out the post that I said anything close to that. Apology accepted in advance.
Maybe you didn't, but you can't honestly expect any of us to keep track of your JM bashings. We'd need some sort of digital filing system for that.

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05-29-2008, 10:20 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Rattrick View Post
Maybe you didn't, but you can't honestly expect any of us to keep track of your JM bashings. We'd need some sort of digital filing system for that.
That's because JM's faults are so numerious and my bashings so justified.

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05-29-2008, 01:20 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaebriel View Post
You're making 'a priori' assumptions, not analysis. Anecdotal evidence tainted by confirmation bias is not sufficient to prove your point. I'm not trying to be an ass, I'm just making a point.

I guess you could try and do a statistical analysis of all players who spent their first pro year in the AHL and their second in the NHL and contrast them with players who spent no time in the AHL, however even that would be prone to error because you would naturally expect players who spend no time in the AHL to be more talented. The whole idea of a prospect being 'ruined by being rushed' assumes that time spent in the AHL affects a player's talent. I would think that to make that statement you would have to prove that it's not the other way around; that a player's talent is a predictor of time spent in the AHL.
If I am making an assumption then so are you. Where are your statistics that proves the players that are brought up right away won't hurt their development??? I guess we both can't prove a thing. Oh, And if a player didn't need to develop a bit before being brought up to the big club why even have minor leagues? For bust players. Players need developing, some just need more time then others. My point, if you bring someone up to soon it will hurt his development.

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05-29-2008, 03:19 PM
  #35
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Brainfart, I guess I completley missed this thread right in my face. Feel free to get rid of it mods!

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05-29-2008, 03:42 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Race against NINE View Post
Are you trying to make the argument that Taticek and Stewart should have gone straight to the NHL?

The minor leagues is where young players can learn what it takes to play as pros without compromising the talent of their NHL team - only rare talents are able to make the leap from amateur ranks to the top pro ranks. Others need time to develop their game at the minor league level. Stewart has been hampered by injuries and the apparent inability to realize he has to earn his place - yet he still had a decent season, even if not outstanding, in Rochester this season. Taticek was just a bad draft pick.
Stewart- AHL. , yes that was a good choice but he might have been a bad example to use

Taticek was drafted right around top 10 if I'm not mistaken. AHL. did him no good. AHL. is not the cure-all. Put one of Frolik/Matthias on the big club out of camp next year....then tell me in Dec. if you like the move or not. I think you will be pleasantly surprised. We are one of the weakest teams in the league with our top six forward depth, why not inject youth to that top line

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05-29-2008, 06:08 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beezer View Post
If I am making an assumption then so are you. Where are your statistics that proves the players that are brought up right away won't hurt their development??? I guess we both can't prove a thing. Oh, And if a player didn't need to develop a bit before being brought up to the big club why even have minor leagues? For bust players. Players need developing, some just need more time then others. My point, if you bring someone up to soon it will hurt his development.
That's fine, but I'm not the one making the claim. You are.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_...ogical_fallacy)

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05-29-2008, 06:37 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Gaebriel View Post
That's fine, but I'm not the one making the claim. You are.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_...ogical_fallacy)
I guess we will have to Continue to agree to disagree!

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05-29-2008, 06:40 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaebriel View Post
That's fine, but I'm not the one making the claim. You are.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_...ogical_fallacy)
But you are the one challenging an accepted truth. He doesn't have to prove anything, you must disprove it.

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05-29-2008, 08:14 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by RoadDoggFL View Post
But you are the one challenging an accepted truth. He doesn't have to prove anything, you must disprove it.
I have to agree here. It's well known across the NHL that not every prospect is ready and rushing them in isn't good for their development. Weiss, Horton, and Olesz alone are proof of this. Kane, Toews, Crosby, and Ovechkin are amazing players who are exceptions to the well known norm.

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05-30-2008, 08:41 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by RoadDoggFL View Post
But you are the one challenging an accepted truth. He doesn't have to prove anything, you must disprove it.
No, that's not how the burden of proof works. The default position is always neutrality. The claim was made that bringing a player up to the NHL quickly, degrades their talent. It doesn't matter how many people accept it as truth, there must be some underlying factual support for that assertion. Wanting something to be true doesn't make it so.

I merely asked whether or not anyone could back up that statement, apparently nobody can without offering anecdotes like this...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laus723
I have to agree here. It's well known across the NHL that not every prospect is ready and rushing them in isn't good for their development. Weiss, Horton, and Olesz alone are proof of this. Kane, Toews, Crosby, and Ovechkin are amazing players who are exceptions to the well known norm.
This statement is virtually meaningless. How do you know Weiss, Horton and Olesz would be better right now if they had spent more time in the AHL? You dont. How do you know Kane, Toews, Crosby, and Ovechkin wouldn't be even better than they are now, had they spent some time in the AHL? You dont.

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05-30-2008, 08:58 AM
  #42
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Ok, this argument about who needs to prove what is carrying this thread off topic - if it continues, I close the thread.

Ultimately this message board is a place for people to express opinions and discuss hockey. Any attempts to say people have no standing or right to express their opinion will be dealt with in my usual nazi-mod manner. You may think your opinion counts more, but that doesn't really matter here. People like to discuss hockey, and that's what this board is for. Elitism isn't welcome.

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05-30-2008, 09:20 AM
  #43
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This is why we have training camp. If Frolik and Matthias perform well, they make the team. If they don't, back to the AHL. Simple.

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05-30-2008, 10:43 AM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Haj View Post
This is why we have training camp. If Frolik and Matthias perform well, they make the team. If they don't, back to the AHL. Simple.
I agree. Our team is managed differently than we were in the past. If they are going to make the team, it's because they earned the spot, not because they were given it. Hell, both of them making the team is a great problem for us because that means they must have really impressed.

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05-30-2008, 12:34 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Rattrick View Post
I agree. Our team is managed differently than we were in the past. If they are going to make the team, it's because they earned the spot, not because they were given it. Hell, both of them making the team is a great problem for us because that means they must have really impressed.
I dont think anyone was "given" a spot in the past. The kids that were playing in the NHL were better than the guys already here and lest we forget weiss at one time was sent back to juniors. Also as a random aside, I love how people post here saying that the AHL would have helped guys like olesz,horton, bouwmeester.... All of them are productive NHL players, Bouwmeester is a franchise player, Horton has scored 30 goals twice I believe and olesz is playing to his potential as a plus defender with limited offensive upside. This isnt EHM, players dont magically become better just by playing on the farm. I dont like horton's laziness would have been solved in the AHL or Olesz would magically learn to score. Bouwmeester is fine as is so what would the point of the AHL have been?

Sorry for the rant.


Last edited by Acadmus: 05-31-2008 at 03:34 AM. Reason: removing broad flame
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05-30-2008, 01:58 PM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haj View Post
This is why we have training camp. If Frolik and Matthias perform well, they make the team. If they don't, back to the AHL. Simple.
Which is what you should come to expect. But that may not be a possibility for one particular reason:

If they plan on buying out anyone currently with a contract, that must be done within a small window starting in a few days IIRC (June 1st till June 15th). So they may have to make a commitment to one of them making the roster if they do buy out contracts of guys like Stumpel, Peltonen, Kilger, Dvorak, etc. With the team already using one of its 3 available buyouts before the CBA is renewed (on Sean Hill), they may be reluctant to use more than 1 of those also (at least the way I understand the way the CBA reads but I could be wrong).

Still, I'm not sure there are enough spots at this point to say they'll make the roster without several moves being made (buyouts, waivers, and trades). So it may be a moot point even if they play well enough to make the big club.

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05-30-2008, 03:44 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by 39ontheline View Post
I dont think anyone was "given" a spot in the past. The kids that were playing in the NHL were better than the guys already here and lest we forget weiss at one time was sent back to juniors. Also as a random aside, I love how people post here saying that the AHL would have helped guys like olesz,horton, bouwmeester.... . All of them are productive NHL players, Bouwmeester is a franchise player, Horton has scored 30 goals twice I believe and olesz is playing to his potential as a plus defender with limited offensive upside. This isnt EHM, players dont magically become better just by playing on the farm. I dont like horton's laziness would have been solved in the AHL or Olesz would magically learn to score. Bouwmeester is fine as is so what would the point of the AHL have been?

Sorry for the rant.
AHL allows players to develop certain aspects of their games. It's much harder to develop your game at the NHL level when all the players are so good that you have to focus on just playing defensively (in Bouw's case). Had he been in the AHL and worked on his offense, i.e. PPQB who steps into a big slapshot, and developed confidence from that experience, he could have brought it to the NHL rather than trying to learn things like that in the bigs. Olesz could have also worked on his offensive abilities. If you play 3rd or 4th line in a league and are relied on to produce defensively only, your offensive game will stagnate. If you go to another level and are relied on as an offensive contributor, with the coach showing confidence in you, it can drastically change your own confidence and help your game tremendously. There's a reason top NHL teams like Detroit send players like Hudler, Fillpula, Kronvall, etc.... to the AHL even if they could stick it out in the NHL and be semi-productive. They want those players to be difference makers, which allows them to have the mindset that they are capable of producing at high levels. Personally, I was on a travel team once where I was playing only penalty kill and not counted on to score goals, but at the same time, I played on a lower level team (highschool) where I was counted on to be the main scorer. I developed much more offense in the lower level and ended up leading the travel league in scoring the next year. I was allowed to take risks offensively in the highschool league that I didn't do in the travel league. The next year, I brought some of those moves into a higher level, and gained enough confidence that I became a top player. It make a huge difference as a player, and it definitely applies to the pro levels as well.


Last edited by Acadmus: 05-31-2008 at 03:34 AM. Reason: q-d-content
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Old
05-30-2008, 05:05 PM
  #48
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In my opinion the best use of the AHL is when you've got a forward with top 6 potential or a defenseman with top 4 potential and either there's no room in the pro team's top 6 or top 4 or they are not ready you send them to the AHL. They get the 20 minutes a night playing on the top line or top pairing instead of being the 7th D or a scoring forward playing on the 4th line. But if they have the skill to play with the big boys they should, worst case scenario you send them to the AHL for more seasoning if it doesn't work.

I also think Matthias will be a lock, but Frolik might need some time in Rochester though.

Glad we won't be sharing a farm team.

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05-30-2008, 05:08 PM
  #49
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For fear of being censored by our Fascist Nazi-mod (j/k "race against nine") but I always thought it was common knowledge that it is best for young talent to develop in a minor league before stepping into the top league, and that it goes for any sport.

I mean, how can anyone really refute this? If you send an 18 year old who isn't ready to play in the top league in the world, he certainly will struggle. If you allow him to develop slowly in juniors and then in a minor-pro league like the ECHL, the AHL, or even certain European elite leagues then he will have a chance to round out his game and develop his skillset.

Think of it as a ladder, literally. You plant one foot on the bottom rung, and then you put your other foot on the rung above it. You don't jump all the way to the top from just the first or second rung. I hate to use such a simple analogy, but there it is. You take it one step at a time, or you fall on your back.

Some players like Crosby, et al are able to make that jump, but like it has been said before, those guys are the exception to the rule and are already talented and "ready" enough to make the jump.

If you argue that this isn't the case, then why do players play in junior leagues at all... why don't they just start playing in the NHL from birth?

It's because they aren't READY to play in such a skilled environment. Of course, not every player is the same, and every person responds differently to different situations but the wise strategy is to let your talent develop SLOWLY if you can instead of throwing them into a trial by fire. Which is what we did to Weiss, Olesz, Bouwmeester, and even Horton. I just hope we don't do it to Frolik, Ellerby, Repik and Matthias.

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05-30-2008, 05:25 PM
  #50
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Even if they only have room for one of the players, its not like we wont have ANY injuries. I doubt there is a point in time during the season that one or two spaces wont be open due to injuries. At one point last season there were 9 openings compared to the spots available coming out of training camp.

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