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Old
06-13-2008, 03:36 PM
  #26
s7ark
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Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
Just dont forget how many games we won in the shootout last year. That is unlikely to happen so I really cant see us being a better team.
Well, you also have to keep in mind how many leads we blew in order to get to OT in the first place. As we mature and gain experience, the number of times we blow leads should shrink.

And a big part of our SO success was that Garon was almost unbeatable. He's been good in that part of the game since it was brought in. I don't think he's suddenly going to become a sieve, so we should be at least decent in the SO again next year.

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06-13-2008, 03:41 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by s7ark View Post
Well, you also have to keep in mind how many leads we blew in order to get to OT in the first place. As we mature and gain experience, the number of times we blow leads should shrink.

And a big part of our SO success was that Garon was almost unbeatable. He's been good in that part of the game since it was brought in. I don't think he's suddenly going to become a sieve, so we should be at least decent in the SO again next year.
I recall Turco having the same sucess the first couple seasons. Players are smart...they will figure things out. You are right about the age and blowing leads.....but hasnt that always been Mact's forte

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06-13-2008, 04:03 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
I recall Turco having the same sucess the first couple seasons. Players are smart...they will figure things out. You are right about the age and blowing leads.....but hasnt that always been Mact's forte
Oilers players havn't been too smart in being able to figure Turco out in the shootout.

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Old
06-13-2008, 04:17 PM
  #29
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Let us remember it's been over TWENTY years since the Oilers last won a division title.

Will they be the team to beat in '09?

Sure, if they play with consistency and accountability every night and stop finishing months 2-11, 3-10-1 and feeling that that's okay.

I don't care who they sign, trade or draft as long as they play with some sense of urgency EVERY game.

Other teams do (for the most part). Why not us?

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Old
06-13-2008, 04:20 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
Oilers players havn't been too smart in being able to figure Turco out in the shootout.
Well maybe not the Oilers but teams have had more sucess than the first couple times. That is what I was trying to say.

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Old
06-13-2008, 04:28 PM
  #31
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Every team in the NW has a shot at winning the division next year.

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Old
06-13-2008, 05:05 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post

Oiler fan are basing their happiness upon the last 1/4 of the season

the 3/4 season seems to be forgotten
I think there is also some hoping that the hockey gods will go easy on us and we will not have a million injuries like the last 2 seasons. If we stay relatively healthy that should make us a little stronger over all. I think it is fair to say this is some of the best depth we have had in a while.

One would expect if either or both of Stoll and Torres are here they can only get better than last year.

On the flip side we are all counting on young guys fresh off of their rookie seasons to tear things up. Which has a chance of back firing on us but one would imagine some or most of Gilbert, Grebs, Nilsson, Gagner, Cogliano and Brodziak will continue to progress or at least hold their own. We are counting on the same level of goaltending from Garon (I think he can do it but that is just me) so that will be test to see if Mathieu has found his consistency over the long haul or not.

I have not forgotten the most of the first section of the year. Though I still find myself thinking the last quarter of the season was not exactly a fluke either. Working out some of the rookie mistakes and having them find their stride and confidence went a long way to turning things around. Not to mention getting back one of our top 2 IMO defensive forwards in Pisani helped settle things down a lot. As did Moreau eventual return to the line up even though it was short lived.

A big key for me is for us not to run into bad injury troubles again. It is about time our luck turned around in this area.


Last edited by Oilerdiehard: 06-13-2008 at 07:01 PM.
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Old
06-13-2008, 05:28 PM
  #33
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To me, this is the first year in a long time where th NW division could actually suck on the whole. Our bragging rights and excuses might not work if we can't rise above our division rivals.

No real judgment can be passed until acquisitions are finalized, though.

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06-13-2008, 05:49 PM
  #34
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I could see the Oil winning the division

I could also see them finishing dead last and missing the playoffs yet again...alot depends on who we pick up during the season, the injury factor, etc...

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Old
06-13-2008, 06:34 PM
  #35
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I think all the talk of using OT/SO and shots for and against for results for prediction are all bad math IMO.

I've only found GF/GA ratio to be a useful predictor for points and yes the Oilers overachieved last season with a poor GF/GA ratio.

NORTHWEST GP W L OTL PTS GF GA Pts/GameExpected PtsAdjusted Pts
Minnesota 82442810982232181.0283.8892.27
Colorado 8244317952312191.0586.4995.14
Calgary 82423010942292271.0182.7290.99
Edmonton 8241356882352510.9476.7784.45
Vancouver 82393310882132150.9981.2489.36

Adjusted Pts = Expected Pts * 1.1 (because 10% or so games become 3-point games - probably should be 15%)

We just had a brutal October/November digging a massive goal differential hole(-15) that we never recovered from. Those two months were also our worst in terms of points too.

If we play like we did from late November until early April we should be fine (borderline playoff team). One thing that needs improvement is our record within the NW division.

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Old
06-13-2008, 06:37 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by voxel View Post
I think all the talk of using OT/SO and shots for and against for results for prediction are all bad math IMO.

I've only found GF/GA ratio to be a useful predictor for points and yes the Oilers overachieved last season with a poor GF/GA ratio.

NORTHWEST GP W L OTL PTS GF GA Pts/GameExpected PtsAdjusted Pts
Minnesota 82442810982232181.0283.8892.27
Colorado 8244317952312191.0586.4995.14
Calgary 82423010942292271.0182.7290.99
Edmonton 8241356882352510.9476.7784.45
Vancouver 82393310882132150.9981.2489.36

Adjusted Pts = Expected Pts * 1.1 (because 10% or so games become 3-point games - probably should be 15%)

We just had a brutal October/November digging a massive goal differential hole(-15) that we never recovered from. Those two months were also our worst in terms of points too.

If we play like we did from late November until early April we should be fine (borderline playoff team). One thing that needs improvement is our record within the NW division.
It's hard to gauge anything from last year.

We were effectively (with the injuries) the youngest team in the NHL. A lot of the GA were a result of a lot of guys wetting the bed ... which is a process every rookie/young player has to go through.

I think we got a lot of the "hard" part of development out of the way last year. The team is still young but it won't be nearly as green as it was last year.

On top of that we didn't even get to field a fully healthy roster for even one game last year. I expect us to be better defensively next year even with no new additions simply because of having the experience of all that ice time last year.

People bring up the shootout for instance, but really in a lot of those shootout wins we were leading in the 3rd period and made mistakes that cost us the lead. Winning the shootout was merely getting the point back that we should have had in regulation.

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Old
06-13-2008, 07:17 PM
  #37
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I expect us to be better defensively next year even with no new additions simply because of having the experience of all that ice time last year.
Yes this is true IMO. It is not like we have a lot of vets on the back end. Yet at the same time most of us having been wringing our hands in worry over how young and grossly inexperienced our D corps is. While we have been doing that Matt Greene has put in 3 years in the NHL, despite being only 22 years old Smid is entering his 3rd year in the NHL, neither Grebs or Gilbert are that young and had strong years to finish things off. Then of course we have grizzled vets like Staios, Souray and yes Pitkanen who is young but entering his 5th year in the NHL. We are beginning to look a little less green around the gills.

Up front if all of Moreau, Pisani, Horcoff etc... can stay healthy we should be stronger defensively than last years club. Brodziak, Cogliano, Nilsson all showed strikes as the year wore on on the defensive side of the puck. We had a lot of close games last year. With a slight improvement to the offense and a slight improvement to the defense. I could see us winning a few more close ones and have less of them go to overtime and instead closing the deal in regulation.

Personally I could see us grabbing one of the last 2 or 3 playoff spots in the conference.

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Old
06-13-2008, 09:08 PM
  #38
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Rumours have Krutov coming out of retirement to revive a sputtering Vancouver offence. If this is true, I say that they win the division in a landslide. Either that, or concession sales triple.

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Old
06-13-2008, 09:44 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMofOilers View Post
Just dont forget how many games we won in the shootout last year. That is unlikely to happen so I really cant see us being a better team.
We did win a number of SO's, but the fact that we hardly got any loser-points (tied for last in the league) offsets some of this.

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Old
06-14-2008, 11:38 AM
  #40
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Nice to see the usual "negative Nancy's" are already writing off the Oilers this year.

I see a big improvement barring significant injuries this year simply due to the fact we will have our best players playing and healthy, and our young'n's will have a year's more experience.

I don't think the division title is out of the question this year. I honestly believe it, though I admit I am overly optimistic about the Oilers.

I would much rather be excited and optimistic about my favorite team, than expecting doom and gloom year after year. I don't know how someone can enjoy that.

Of course, no one can make an accurate judgement of the teams till we see who signs where.

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Old
06-15-2008, 11:29 PM
  #41
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COL: Lots of cap space but to keep that team together, it'll cost them. No way Brunette, Wolski and Svatos are re-signed at their current salaries. The cap space will disappear rather quickly. Sakic will probably be back, but truth is they either won't have any offensive Dmen or a goalie, maybe neither. Judging from the Dmen or goalies UFA pool, it'll cost them an arm and leg to improve on either.

MIN: It's hard to think they'll improve. They will likely lose Dimitra and/or Rolston with little way in the UFAs to replace them.

CGY: They technically will get weaker but they've pretty much underperformed for the past few years. Might be the same or worst. They will surely lose one of Huselius (I can see ATL wanting him to center Kovalchuk) or Langkow. This will hurt both scoring and depth.

VCR: They sure have cap room, but short of Hossa, little to improve unless they trade their solid D for scoring F. Lateral. But I think they too underperformed last year. They also need to keep cap space for the twins next year, with the cap unlikely to rise as much as it has, they'll need to play safe with that and aim at rentals at some point in the season.

EDM: The god awful 4% PP at the beginning last year is never going to happen again (I hope) and that's a big difference. The PK will be as good. There should be a balance of under performing players and over performing rookies (or were they?), this team is looking quite ok. The fewest roster question marks in NW. Shootout success is no big deal really, they also gave away free points, looks like a lot more Ws but point-wise it doesn't make a world of difference.

NW is up for grabs. With more games outside of the division, there will probably be even less difference between the top and last team of the division, but less divisional games probably favors the Oilers who usually sucks vs NW, unless those games are against Nashville or something.

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Old
06-16-2008, 02:03 AM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
Every team in the NW has a shot at winning the division next year.
EDM - very unlikely IMO.
COL, CGY, MIN - very possible
VAN - if Luongo plays like he did in 06-07, then I'll say yes, otherwise they need to make upgrades up front.

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Old
06-16-2008, 03:52 AM
  #43
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
Oiler fan are basing their happiness upon the last 1/4 of the season

the 3/4 season seems to be forgotten
So true... We're extremely young, and have a below average core of vets. I fail to see how we're an "improved" team. I think it's safe to say we'll be a healthier team.. but beyond that we'll be lucky to make the playoffs. 4th in the division is my prediction.

We're weak on the back end. Gilbert, Staios, Souray are all huge question marks imo. Gilbert's being getting paid like a top pairing defenseman, and will have to perform like one. I personally think he'll be exposed this year, and won't be shocked one bit, once people start calling out Lowe for the bad Gilbert contract. Wait until that first injury hits him... Pitkanen post major injury is still a better player than Gilbert at the same age. Pre major injury Pitkanen was twice the player Gilbert is.

Anyone who hasn't forgotten the first 3/4 of the season will remember how bad Steve Staios can be. Not only is he a turnover machine, who takes unneeded penalties, but he'll drag down this partner at the same time. The faster we can deal this guy the better, he's not going to have value for much longer.

We need Souray and Pitkanen to play 70+ games each.

Smid/Greene can't take a step back.


Colorado/Minny
Calgary/Edmonton
Vancouver

2 of Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver will miss the playoffs.

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Old
06-16-2008, 06:20 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by jiggyman View Post
So true... We're extremely young, and have a below average core of vets. I fail to see how we're an "improved" team. I think it's safe to say we'll be a healthier team.. but beyond that we'll be lucky to make the playoffs. 4th in the division is my prediction.

We're weak on the back end. Gilbert, Staios, Souray are all huge question marks imo. Gilbert's being getting paid like a top pairing defenseman, and will have to perform like one. I personally think he'll be exposed this year, and won't be shocked one bit, once people start calling out Lowe for the bad Gilbert contract. Wait until that first injury hits him... Pitkanen post major injury is still a better player than Gilbert at the same age. Pre major injury Pitkanen was twice the player Gilbert is.

Anyone who hasn't forgotten the first 3/4 of the season will remember how bad Steve Staios can be. Not only is he a turnover machine, who takes unneeded penalties, but he'll drag down this partner at the same time. The faster we can deal this guy the better, he's not going to have value for much longer.

We need Souray and Pitkanen to play 70+ games each.

Smid/Greene can't take a step back.


Colorado/Minny
Calgary/Edmonton
Vancouver

2 of Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver will miss the playoffs.
In reference as to how we could be a improved team.....We were the 2nd youngest team in the league and almost all of the young players had outstanding seasons. Chances are one or 2 might have a sophmore slump, but if the last half of the year was any indication then theres no reason why we can't see improvement in most of them.

Add a healthy Horcoff, Torres (if hes still here), Moreau, and Souray and were a improved team on paper without question.

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Old
06-16-2008, 06:27 PM
  #45
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In reference as to how we could be a improved team.....We were the 2nd youngest team in the league and almost all of the young players had outstanding seasons. Chances are one or 2 might have a sophmore slump, but if the last half of the year was any indication then theres no reason why we can't see improvement in most of them.

Add a healthy Horcoff, Torres (if hes still here), Moreau, and Souray and were a improved team on paper without question.
Don't forget about Hemsky. That injured wrist didn't do him any favors, although he played like a hero in spite of it. A healthy oilers team looks deadly.

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Old
06-16-2008, 06:30 PM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
Minny and col are underestimated

vancouver is in Flux

calgary sucks, will always sucks and I bequest a plague amonst their hords of heathens

Oiler fan are basing their happiness upon the last 1/4 of the season

the 3/4 season seems to be forgotten
I'd say it's more 2007.

2007
16-20-3
9 shootout wins
39 games
On pace for a 74 point season

2008
25-15-3
5 shootout wins
42 games
On pace for a 104 point season.


Last edited by Wheatking: 06-16-2008 at 06:36 PM.
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