HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > New York Rangers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Trading the pick down

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
06-16-2008, 06:21 PM
  #26
Beacon
Sent to HF Minors
 
Beacon's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 8,173
vCash: 500
The first part of what you said is true. The second part is grotesquely false.

Of course only 1 out of 3 or 4 second rounders work out.

But guess what, only 1 in 2 first rounders do either. Actually less in the second half of the round. So when you list one or two superstars per draft in the second half of the first round, make sure to list all those who never even made it to the NHL or became journeymen or easily replaceable third liners.

P.S. I am amazed at people's inability to read.

I never said let's trade #20 for #30, much less a second round pick. I'm saying that the 3 picks combined give us a better chance than 1 slightly higher pick.

I can see if we had a top-10 pick. But we have a #20. From 15 to 30, you are likely going to see only a couple impact players anyway. The odds are hugely against the #20 being a top-6 forward or top-3 dman.

The odds against the #20 being an All-Star are astronomical. Probably along the lines of 15-to-1.

The odds against #30 are maybe 18-1 or 20-1 at worst. Worse, but throw in a couple more picks and we now have better than 15 to 1 chances at a star player.




Quote:
Originally Posted by nyr7andcounting View Post
You forgot to mention the other 3 players we picked in the 2004 2nd round- Dane Byers, Darin Olver, Bruce Graham. It sure was a bummer getting those guys.

If we had traded down from the 1st round we would have passed on some of the late 1st rounders that year like Mike Green, Andrej Meszaros, Travis Zajac, Wojtek Wolski, Rob Schremp, Jeff Scultz.

And ended up with Byers or Olver and an extra 4th rounder? Ending up with Dubinsky and an extra 4th rounder would have been by far the best case scenario (Dubi was the best player picked in that years 2nd round) and even so I don't think Dubi is as good as some of the guys who went late 1st round that year.

So if you assume we had a late first rounder in 2004 and traded it down to the early 2nd round in order to pick up an extra mid rounder- there's a very good chance it would have been a bad deal.

I know that's just one draft, but if you want to bring up Dubinsky then might as well apply that situation to this thread.

But in the big picture I'd be more against trading down just because we have enough decent prospects with limited upside already. The guy we pick at #20 will have more upside and that's what we need. We can afford to pick a high risk guy with good upside.


Last edited by Beacon: 06-16-2008 at 06:33 PM.
Beacon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-16-2008, 06:45 PM
  #27
hlundqvist30*
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 7,520
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooklynHockey99 View Post
Please read before commenting and attacking. I specifically said that I'm just creating random numbers to illustrate a point.

#20 is better than #30. But #20 isn't always better than #30 and #60. Sometimes that's true, sometimes it's not. I was just illustrating how it's possible.
Making up statistics proves ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.

87% of the ozone layer is made up of cheese, so we should send up 8 tons of American cheese to the ozone layer then we will solve global warming.

Based on my statistic, does my solution make sense? Yes, but the point is my solution doesn't mean **** if my statistic is a bunch of crap.

So based on your ******** statistics that you pulled out of the air, sure it makes sense to make a trade, but your statistics are WRONG! I already told you that at the point in time last year somebody did an in depth study and concluded that around 25% of 1st round picks make it whereas only about 4.5% of 2nd round picks do.

But just to please you, let's look at past drafts:



1993 draft:
20th pick: Mike Wilson
30th pick: Nikolai Tsulygin
60th pick: Alexander Kerch

1995 draft:
20th pick: Dennis Gauthier
30th pick: Mike McBain
60th pick: Miroslav Guren


1996 draft:
20th pick: Marcus Nilson
30th pick: Josh Green
60th pick: Chris Allen

2000:
20th pick: Alexander Frolov
30th pick: Jeff Taffe
60th pick: Dan Ellis

2001:
20th pick: Marcel Goc
30th pick: Dave Steckel
60th pick:Viktor Uchevatov

2002:
20th pick: Daniel Paille
30th pick: Jim Slater
60th pick: Adam Henrich

2003:
20th pick: Brent Burns
30th pick: Shawne Belle
60th pick: Marc-Andre Bernier

2004:
20th pick: Travis Zajac
30th pick: Andy Rogers
60th pick: Brandon Dubinsky

And since 1993, only one 120th overall pick has even made the NHL: Tomas Surovy

The years I excluded generated absolutely nothing, so don't think I skipped those because they were against my arguement. It was just that in 94,96,97,98,and 99 nobody of note was picked.

So lets analyze these results. Out of the last 8 drafts that have generated notable talent at the 20th, 30th, or 60th spots, only 1 of them proves your argument, which would be the 2004 draft.


Last edited by hlundqvist30*: 06-16-2008 at 06:55 PM.
hlundqvist30* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-16-2008, 06:54 PM
  #28
SupersonicMonkey*
DROP THE PUCK
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: USA
Country: United States
Posts: 15,193
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooklynHockey99 View Post
I would never suggest that we draft a few "safer" prospects who will play on our third line.

I say go for high-risk, high-return ones. Some will be Zaborsky, Swanson, Ferraro or Dube. Others will wind up being Savard, Dubinsky, Dawes or Mike York.

Take 3 picks and throw them at three high-risk, high-return prospects. Hopefully you'll get a bullseye with one of them. We won't have much more depth, but we will improve ourselves greatly at the top.

When you are going for a home run, you better off having 3 swings at it than having one that is slightly better than any of those 3.

Take the three and try it grab a potential star.
How is Zaborsky anything like the guys you mentioned?

SupersonicMonkey* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-16-2008, 07:01 PM
  #29
NYR Viper
Moderator
 
NYR Viper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: PA
Country: United States
Posts: 28,214
vCash: 500
i still think someone will drop, and i hope its teubert or beech as i like them both...although i like carlson as well

NYR Viper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-16-2008, 07:12 PM
  #30
I Eat Crow
Fear The Mullet
 
I Eat Crow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Country: United States
Posts: 6,076
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyviper87 View Post
i still think someone will drop, and i hope its teubert or beech as i like them both...although i like carlson as well
I also see a guy like Dalpe or Tedenby dropping, the former being the more likely.

I Eat Crow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-16-2008, 10:39 PM
  #31
nyr7andcounting
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 1,919
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooklynHockey99 View Post
The first part of what you said is true. The second part is grotesquely false.

Of course only 1 out of 3 or 4 second rounders work out.

But guess what, only 1 in 2 first rounders do either. Actually less in the second half of the round. So when you list one or two superstars per draft in the second half of the first round, make sure to list all those who never even made it to the NHL or became journeymen or easily replaceable third liners.
I listed more than half of the players picked 20-30 that year. If you want the full list:
Travis Zajac
Wojtek Wolski
Lukas Kaspar
Andrej Meszaros
Kris Chucko
Robbie Schremp
Cory Schneider
Jeff Schultz
Mark Fistric
Mike Green
Andy Rogers.

Those are the 10 players taken between 20-30 in 2004. 5 of them are solidified NHL players with potential to be very good. 1 of them made his NHL debut last season. 1 hasn't played much but will because he might be the most talented of them all (Schremp). Then there's 3 busts.

Out of 30 2nd round picks that year only 5 have played more than half a season- Dubinsky, Blake Comeau, David Booth, David Krejci, Nicklas Grossman. Maybe 2-5 more will play in the NHL for more than a season at some point. That's not a very good rate and the best player from that round might be Dubinsky, who I don't think has as much potential as half the players picked 20-30.

And I'm able to read what your proposing. I just don't think the exact picks matter because that all depends on which team wants to move up. The decision to trade down or not comes first. If you decide to trade down then you take the best offer. But I don't think we should decide to trade down so I don't care what we could possibly get. Obviously if some team has picks #27 and #35 and offers both for #20 anybody would take that. But it's unlikely one team would own enough picks to overpay like that.

nyr7andcounting is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-16-2008, 11:54 PM
  #32
Draft Guru
The Wizard of Özil
 
Draft Guru's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Long Island
Country: United States
Posts: 6,631
vCash: 500
We have enough "depth" prospects in our system. We need to stick at #20 and take a risk on a potential impact player, or trade up for one. We have enough 2nd/3rd/4th liners in our system...we need to take another chance on a potential 1st line forward or top 4 D-Man

I'd be willing to give up a lot to get our hands on one of the big 4 defensemen this year.

Draft Guru is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-17-2008, 07:57 AM
  #33
MikeyLikesHockey
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 603
vCash: 500
phooey

Phooey to this thread.

Let everyone who's contract has expired just go away, fill the team with the youngens take one or two seasons to rebuild and go dy-nasty mode.

Bring up Jess, Korpedo, Ani, Bobby S, Alex Bourret and let em play....

MikeyLikesHockey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-18-2008, 02:35 PM
  #34
Ace2008
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Country:
Posts: 364
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyviper87 View Post
i still think someone will drop, and i hope its teubert or beech as i like them both...although i like carlson as well
if the blueshirts can get John Carlson they should consider themselves lucky

just understand that hes 6'4 /216 lbs... and that he can improve his skating and def zone coverage under the Renney Regime easily within 3 or 4 yrs...good pick for any org. character guy.

Another guy that could be brought in is Y. Sauve 6'2/209 not much scoring flash...but hits and skates well for a big guy.

Realize that scouts oozed over C.Philips who went 1st overall in 96
and a dozen years later we see a solid #2 dman who does everything well

but if you look at the big 6 dmen of this draft...it could easily be a very different group of big 6 or even big 16 that scouts will be talking about 5-7 years from now....give the kids time to fill out...many of the top picks are small / thin by NHL standards...

excusable for forwards in the D.Briere/ P.Datsyuk mold if your coaching supports it

definitely not excusable for Defenders unless the team has only 1 of them amongst a large and mobile top 8

this draft has about 18 quality defenders outside of Doughty and such

a very different picture amongst wingers where there are about 9 quality guys of which quite a few have the Euro-no Xfer agreement tag applied to them.

But for Centermen its an excellent draft

Ace2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-18-2008, 04:20 PM
  #35
AJ1982
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: New York
Posts: 1,812
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to AJ1982
Wow, trade down? No way. At a minimum keep 20. This draft is loaded with potential stud defensemen, even outside the top 5 dmen. Really, we should try to trade up in the draft. Package our 1st and 2nd and Pru or something to move up a few spaces if (when!) someone falls in the draft.

AJ1982 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:17 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.