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Draft is the way to go

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Old
06-16-2008, 12:44 PM
  #1
Stoneman89
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Draft is the way to go

I note that there are a lot of comments on which UFA's we should sign etc, and I would like to point out that, although a good UFA signing is important to improve a team, drafting it is still the best and most economical way to get it done. Teams that sign UFA's a their bread and butter tend to reap short term results IMO. The Rangers are a very good example, and even the Leafs have had their fleeting days in the sun with this method. I just wanted to post SC champion and perrenial Presidents Trophy winner Detroit as an example of how the draft is used correctly. Here are those players and where they were drafted.

Nicklas Lidstrom - drafted in the 3rd round/53rd overall in 1989
Tomas Holmstrom - drafted in the 10th round/257th overall in 1994
Henrik Zetterberg - drafted in the 7th round/210th overall in 1999
Pavel Datsuyk - drafted in the 6th round/171st overall in 1998
Johan Franzen - drafted in the 3rd round/97th overall in 2004
Valtteri Fillpula - drafted in the 3rd round/95th overall in 2002
Darren McCarty - drafted in the 2nd round/46th overall in 1992
Jiri Hudler - drafted in the 2nd round/58th overall in 2002
Chris Osgood - drafted in the 3rd round/54th overall in 1991
Niklas Kronwall - drafted in the 1st round/29th overall in 2000

What is amazing to me, is that only one guy was in the first round, and even that was at the tail-end of it. I think too many teams put most of their emphasis on the so-called "slam-dunk" top 10 picks and not enough scouting effort into the players in later rounds. Signing lots of UFA's gets you immediate results (sometimes), if you hit it lucky, but I'm not sure that method is sutainable for long term success. The Wings have proven they have the blueprint for PERRENIAL success with the drafting method, and use ALL the rounds for their benefit. With no cap limit on scouting methods, there really is no excuse why more teams can't do this. But, of course, it is a longer process, and takes time to build up, and most fans, ownership , and management do not have the patience for time it would take, as opposed to the quick fix of getting UFA's. This is not to say that UFA signings and trades ar not important. Brian Rafalski was a smart signing and well worth the dough, and Dan Cleary was an excellent trade as well, to name 2, but they were complimentary pieces to an already solid core. As well, having a sound scouting system (unlike the Oilers prior "Mexican model") and a consistent winner has the added benefit of players taking the famous "hometown discount" at times to have the ability to stay in a winning environment, as well as mediocre players becoming much better players just by being on a good team. I hope the Katz will try to mimic this model when he becomes owner, and spend not just to the cap on player salaries, but also for all the other things that will make it attractive and successful to play here, like infrastructure, and scouting and drafting. As this June's draft approaches, it may be wise to keep in mind that our 22nd pick, and those 4th and 5th rounders may turn out to be the best picks ever made if they are done right, and a little luck.

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06-16-2008, 05:02 PM
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oiletsky
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Well they're Detroit man.... plus Detroit has many intangibles such as:
-Scotty Bowman
-Steve Yzerman
-Coaching staff
-guys like Chelios and Lidstrom are willing to take pay discounts.

Teams like Detroit and Buffalo have amazing scouting and player development. Oilers just don't... I think its goingto change with a stable AHL affliate.

Most of those guys were from Europe and see thread:
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=88121
about how oilers euro scouts are kinda ignored. I think Frank Musil is their European Scout?

I think after busts like Jesse Niminaki, Mihknov, Jani Rita they're sticking to mostly North America. They have been successful in the US with Greene, Chorney, Gilbert and Petry.

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06-16-2008, 05:07 PM
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Reimer
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Yep same old song and dance. If the world were like the red wings, it would be like chocolate cake and ice cream.

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06-16-2008, 05:22 PM
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Scrodo Baggins
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I'm curious as to how the expiration of the IIHF and NHL transfer agreement is going to change the draft.....

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06-16-2008, 05:23 PM
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Stoneman89
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I'm not convinced they have to concentrate their scouting on the exact same areas as the Wings necessarily, or any other team for that matter. They need to find a niche, or niches, and go from there. You can't be all things to everyone. Right now, it seems the Oilers have been having some success at the US collegiate level. Fine, continue there and build on it. Saying that, I also think they need to have more comprehensive European scouting, which countrys I don't know where, but they can figure it out.

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06-16-2008, 05:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oiletsky View Post
Well they're Detroit man.... plus Detroit has many intangibles such as:
-Scotty Bowman
-Steve Yzerman
-Coaching staff
-guys like Chelios and Lidstrom are willing to take pay discounts.

Teams like Detroit and Buffalo have amazing scouting and player development. Oilers just don't... I think its goingto change with a stable AHL affliate.

Most of those guys were from Europe and see thread:
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=88121
about how oilers euro scouts are kinda ignored. I think Frank Musil is their European Scout?

I think after busts like Jesse Niminaki, Mihknov, Jani Rita they're sticking to mostly North America. They have been successful in the US with Greene, Chorney, Gilbert and Petry.

Trust me bud, Lidstrom is one guy that is NOT taking a discount. He's on the tail-end of a long term deal that pays him 7.6 million/year. It may be slightly low now, but when he signed it, it was a kings ransom.

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06-16-2008, 05:31 PM
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Scrodo Baggins
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
I'm not convinced they have to concentrate their scouting on the exact same areas as the Wings necessarily, or any other team for that matter. They need to find a niche, or niches, and go from there. You can't be all things to everyone. Right now, it seems the Oilers have been having some success at the US collegiate level. Fine, continue there and build on it. Saying that, I also think they need to have more comprehensive European scouting, which countrys I don't know where, but they can figure it out.
I agree and disagree with this. I agree that scouting 'niche' players is important but the Oilers had already been doing it for years and had failed miserably. Just look at how many times they tried to draft a power forward. It took an offer sheet to cookie monster to finally put that to bed. Now they can trade Mihknov and Jacques and move on to the next niche.

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06-16-2008, 06:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oiletsky View Post
Well they're Detroit man.... plus Detroit has many intangibles such as:
-Scotty Bowman
-Steve Yzerman
-Coaching staff
-guys like Chelios and Lidstrom are willing to take pay discounts.

Teams like Detroit and Buffalo have amazing scouting and player development. Oilers just don't... I think its goingto change with a stable AHL affliate.

Most of those guys were from Europe and see thread:
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=88121
about how oilers euro scouts are kinda ignored. I think Frank Musil is their European Scout?


I think after busts like Jesse Niminaki, Mihknov, Jani Rita they're sticking to mostly North America. They have been successful in the US with Greene, Chorney, Gilbert and Petry.
A lot has changed since 2004 when that thread was made. Last year, for example, half of our draft picks were European, and we didn't draft any coke machines. The draft philosophy has changed.

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06-16-2008, 06:24 PM
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Stoneman89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrodo Baggins View Post
I agree and disagree with this. I agree that scouting 'niche' players is important but the Oilers had already been doing it for years and had failed miserably. Just look at how many times they tried to draft a power forward. It took an offer sheet to cookie monster to finally put that to bed. Now they can trade Mihknov and Jacques and move on to the next niche.
You misunderstand me. I'm not talking about a TYPE of player for a niche. Rather than certain AREAS as to where to look for players..i.e Sweden, Russia, US colleges, China, wherever.

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06-16-2008, 06:57 PM
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Last year it was big physical North American players, signing college FA (Penner, McDonald, Kunitz, etc.) and trading for + signing high end elite players (Pronger, Scotty)... that was the recipe for success.

Next year it will be small forwards, value players, rotating goaltenders, and defenseman you can't pronounce.

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06-16-2008, 07:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
Trust me bud, Lidstrom is one guy that is NOT taking a discount. He's on the tail-end of a long term deal that pays him 7.6 million/year. It may be slightly low now, but when he signed it, it was a kings ransom.
You mean the two year extension he signed paying him $7.45 mil per season in 08-09 and 09-10 in December of 2007? Because based on the fact he has been the singlemost dominant defenceman in the NHL for the better part of a decade and just won his 6th Norris in 7 seasons... that seems like a discount.

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06-16-2008, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
Trust me bud, Lidstrom is one guy that is NOT taking a discount. He's on the tail-end of a long term deal that pays him 7.6 million/year. It may be slightly low now, but when he signed it, it was a kings ransom.
It was a discount because 25+ other teams would have given him more on the open market. Not saying the guy isn't well compensated, but his deal is a bargain for the Wings for what he does.

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06-16-2008, 07:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Stoneman89 View Post
You misunderstand me. I'm not talking about a TYPE of player for a niche. Rather than certain AREAS as to where to look for players..i.e Sweden, Russia, US colleges, China, wherever.
That's a good idea. It seems that Detroit has a niche in finding the skilled, undervalued players overseas. When was the last time they drafted an impact player from North America? They draft skill and find the muckers and team players through the CHL and college.

I think our niche has been college. Horcoff, Pisani, Poti, Comrie, Cogliano, Greene plus the guys coming up through our system. The NCAA has been good to the Oilers.

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06-16-2008, 07:44 PM
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I always wonder how many scouts are allowed per team. I think the problem with the Oil is, yea, focus too much on the 'slam dunk' (or near that) and don't really think about the others too much.

My biggest issue with the Oil is we always overlook the Europeans (or most of them anyways), especially Russians. Always the 'good ol Canadian boy'. Sometimes it just pisses me off. We should, especially this year, go with the BPA, regardless since our draft pick is low. One poster pointed out the best: Drafting based on need (unless its in the top 5) is futile when your pick is low since those picks are never guaranteed (though neither are the top 5, but they are better chance than a mid 20s pick) and if it doesnt work out, it might just set us back to mediocrity....well, something like that

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06-16-2008, 08:08 PM
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A few thoughts:

-Detroit doesn't outspend teams in scouting. Hakan Andersson makes the most of any scout at $200-300K which elevates their budget slightly, but the rest of the crew makes in the $60-120K range like any other team. They also don't have more scouts, or more scouts in certain areas. They have a textbook setup but it works because of their personnel.

-Every team does their homework for every round. The difference is in how they do it and where they go. The Lightning, for example, do do their homework. But they target a certain type or types of player that hasn't yielded the best results. Every team has biases that limit their effectiveness.

-You're missing one of the biggest pieces of the Detroit model: development. Datsyuk learned a lot from Yzerman, Kronwall from Lidstrom. I think this is something you can do in free agency, as we did with Oates, who taught Stoll how to become a master faceoff artist.

-Ironically, it's this mentality of the homerun that I think hurts teams and pulls them further away from the Detroit model. They value character and defensive awareness over the things other teams trip over themselves to draft- IE coke machines. Andersson drafted Franzen with the thinking he would be a sound defensive center; Datsyuk impressed him because he scored while killing a 5-on-3. Zetterberg was a top defensive forward for Timra at a young age.

-Edmonton's scouting staff is starting to get it. It's a learning process; Detroit's staff has been together almost 15 years, Jersey's that long. Parise was a classic case of the Oilers getting out-played by a more experienced scouting staff. They learned from the experience, taking Gagner last summer.

-Edmonton has a niche, as was said: college. But I think they also have a bigger one, and that's pedigree. Nilsson, Gags and Chorney have a leg up on other prospects because, as an article in THN's draft preview said, when they hit a wall, they can ask dad for advice.

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06-16-2008, 08:31 PM
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Well written Mr.Bugg. All of it is bang on. On the flip side of it all Europe has been a barren wasteland for the Oilers for the last 10 years. I wonder if in the future they'll tend to shy away from there.

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06-16-2008, 10:10 PM
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Stoneman89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by serum114 View Post
You mean the two year extension he signed paying him $7.45 mil per season in 08-09 and 09-10 in December of 2007? Because based on the fact he has been the singlemost dominant defenceman in the NHL for the better part of a decade and just won his 6th Norris in 7 seasons... that seems like a discount.


Not to belabour this, but 7.5 is still not far off a ceiling for Lidstrom. The top cap hit now is Ovechkin at 9.5 mill, and that was just signed this year. He has his best years in front of him by lots. Crosby is next at 8.5 mill, same comparison. 7.5 mill/year for a 38 year old defenceman, albeit arguably the best, is not chump change. I'm not sure if there are any defencemen making more in terms of cap hit. My point is, if he signed elsewhere, at this stage in his career and his age (closing in on 40 with a lot of miles on him), I'm not sure many teams would shell out 9 million a year for him.

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06-17-2008, 12:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CanmoreMike View Post
That's a good idea. It seems that Detroit has a niche in finding the skilled, undervalued players overseas.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
A few thoughts:

-You're missing one of the biggest pieces of the Detroit model: development. Datsyuk learned a lot from Yzerman, Kronwall from Lidstrom. I think this is something you can do in free agency, as we did with Oates, who taught Stoll how to become a master faceoff artist.

-Ironically, it's this mentality of the homerun that I think hurts teams and pulls them further away from the Detroit model. They value character and defensive awareness over the things other teams trip over themselves to draft- IE coke machines. Andersson drafted Franzen with the thinking he would be a sound defensive center; Datsyuk impressed him because he scored while killing a 5-on-3. Zetterberg was a top defensive forward for Timra at a young age.
Messier learned so much playing with Gretzky...... Messier would have been just a Bertuzzi if never given that opportunity...... Our "fire hydrant" got his big Vancouver paycheck thanks to Wayne... Whoever plays with Crosby & Malkin will get training "to die for"...

Other than that, it is development - Detroit has the depth to bring their players along slowly while being trained by the best in the world...

That is the model we should follow..............

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06-17-2008, 11:13 AM
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Stoneman89
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Messier learned so much playing with Gretzky...... Messier would have been just a Bertuzzi if never given that opportunity...... Our "fire hydrant" got his big Vancouver paycheck thanks to Wayne... Whoever plays with Crosby & Malkin will get training "to die for"...

Other than that, it is development - Detroit has the depth to bring their players along slowly while being trained by the best in the world...

That is the model we should follow..............


Exactly....and how do you get depth? By investing in drafting....

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