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First round picks over the last 10 years
I personally think some of the users of this board drastically overrate the value and potential and likelyhood of prospects becoming NHLers of any worth. While I understand that this a Hockeysfuture and therefore the people that gravitate here tend to be overly fond of prospects and picks I figured some cold hard statistics might help temper the enthusiasm of many posters here as it pertains to prospects. So I figured I'd put some of this in statistical perspective: From the years 1990  1999, the last draft for which you can determine the development of the kids drafted, since it's 5 years later, I figured I'd look at the total number of first round picks and what percentage of them become legitimate NHLers.
By the way the precursor to this excercise was posted years ago at this very site by a very informed Bruins fan for whom I have a great respect but have since forgotten his username at the time. It was a great post the depth of which I will not attempt to duplicate.... So, here we go:

Year: 1990
Number of players drafted in 1stRd: 21
# of All Stars: 6 (Brodeur, Primeau, Jagr, Tkachuk, Nolan, D.Hatcher)
# of flops/busts: 12
# of decent/solid/good players: 4 (Nedved, Ricci, Sydor, Smolinski)
Percentages: Overall not so bad, of the 21 players drafted in the first round almost half have had solid NHL careers. 6 of which have been all stars on more than one occasion, one of which ranks among the top 3 at his position, all time (Brodeur) and one which could have if his head was screwed on straight (Jagr).
Biggest flops: 17th overall, Edmonton took Scott Allison. At 13 NY Rangers took Michael Stewart. Neither player ever played at the NHL level.

Year: 1991
# of players drafted in first Rd: 22
# of All Stars: 5 (Lindros, Niedermayer, Forsberg, Kovalev, Naslund)
# of flops/busts: 10
# of decent/solid/good players: 7 (Glen Murray, Martin Lapointe, Brian Rolston, Martin Rucinsky, Philippe Boucher, Dean McAmmond)
Biggest flop: At 17 Mtl. Canadiens took Brent Bilodeau. He has never played at the NHL level.
Percentages: Out of 22 players drafted 5 were "great" at one point or another. 10 were flops. The remainder were average (McAmmond) to better than average but not great (Glen Murray).

Year: 1992
# of players drafted in first Rd: 24
# of All Stars: 4
# of flops/busts: 16
# of decent/solid/good players: 5
Biggest flop: Many. Philly wins by picking the wasting the lowest (7th overall pick) on a total flop, Ryan Sittler. Vancouver (Polasek) and Detroit (Bowen) also drafted guys that never played in the NHL.
Percentages: Terrible first round. Of the 24 drafdted only 9 were worthwhile NHLers. 16 flops in the first round is brutal.

Year: 1993
# of players drafted in first Rd: 26
# of All Stars: 5 (give or take a couple of 'marginal' AS's like Kenny Jonsson, Jason Arnott. I counted Jason Allison, by the way.)
# of flops/busts: 14
# of decent/solid/good players: 7
Biggest flop: At 18 Calgary Jesper Mattsson.
Percentages: 14 of the 26 players taken in the first round were pretty much flops or mediocrities.

Year: 1994
# of players drafted in first Rd: 26
# of All Stars: 4
# of flops/busts: 18
# of decent/solid/good players: 4
Biggest flop: Geeez, where to start? Edmonton (Sather again) picked Jason Bonsignore at 4th overall. He sucked.
Percentages: From the 14th pick overall to Cloutier at 26th, each of the players selected were total flops at the NHL level. A terrible first round. 18 of 26 were nonfactors at the NHL level.

Year: 1995
# of players drafted in first Rd: 26
# of All Stars: 7 (some questionable)
# of flops/busts: 12
# of decent/solid/good players: 7, give or take.
Biggest flop: What is with Edmonton? Anyway, at 6 overall Edmonton picked Steve Kelly. Great choice, Glen....
Percentages: Again, about half the players chosen turned out to be useless NHLers. This is the pattern that's emerging.

Year: 1996
# of players drafted in first Rd: 26
# of All Stars: 0
# of flops/busts: Geez.. just about all of them. At best 1996 offered some decent players in the first round, but no true All Stars. Guys like Zubrus, Marty Reasoner and, as close as we get to an All Star in this 1st rd draft, Derek Morris.
# of decent/solid/good players: Couple here and there. Morris, Reasoner, Zubrus, Marco Sturm (yes, I know, he's vastly underrated and an excellent support player...)
Biggest flop: Geez... At 4 Washington's Alexandre Volchkov apperas to be a total flop.
Percentages: Brutal a whopping 0% of these players became all stars. Terrible 1st rd.

Year: 1997
# of players drafted in first Rd: 26
# of All Stars: Oh, how about... 6 or 7. Hannan is still developing nicely as is Boynton.
# of flops/busts: 11
# of decent/solid/good players: 8 or so.
Biggest flop: At 6 Calgary selected Daniel Tkaczuk
Percentages: Again, about half the players selected where of little to no impact at the NHL level.

Year: 1998
# of players drafted in first Rd: 27
# of All Stars: 6 or so.
# of flops/busts: 7ish
# of decent/solid/good players: 14 or so. Excellent first round.
Biggest flop: Stop me if you've heard this one before... Edmonton took Michael Henrich 13th overall. At least Rico Fata has played at the NHL level, same with Jeff Heerema.
Percentages: Unusually sucessful first round. The best of the lot so far. 19 of the 27 players taken have had an impact at the NHL level or are beginning to.

Year: 1999
# of players drafted in first Rd: 28
# of All Stars: It's still early but it looks like only about 4 all stars from this class of first rounders: Jackman, Havlat and potentially Boynton and Ouellet but those are projected. You could argue the Jeff Jillson could still develop further and reach another level but... it's a stretch. Jackman and Havlat are clear all stars or at the All Star level in Jackman's case. As he's a defensive dman he's not likely to get voted to an All Star team but he'll perform at that level if his rookie year is any indication. Regardless....
# of flops/busts: Again, it's still a tad early to write off any of the players completely but a case can be made for the following players never becoming effective NHLers or what you'd expect from a first round pick: Tim Connolly, Pavel Brendl, Denis Shvidki, Jamie Lundmark, Scott Kelman, Luca Cereda, Mikhail Kuleshov, Barrett Heisten... some others qualify if those guys do, as well. Some are arguable, such as Connolly due to injuries.
# of decent/solid/good players: 8 or so.
Biggest flop: At 15 Phoenix selected Scott Kelman. You have chosen poorly.
Percentages: A pretty average overall draft although, again, it's still sort of early. Overall very few of the guys taken in the first round have proven to be what you'd desire from your first round picks. Only 2 of the players drafted in the first round that year have even sniffed All Star level competition, where they could have been named or played at that level, Jackman and Havlat. The rest are shaping up to be mediocre in most cases or are more questionable than probable. Rather ugly actually.

Analysis: What this all adds up to is that half of the teams in this draft will walk away with total duds. In 4 or 5 years if the world as we know it and the NHL in particular are still around, we'll look back at this draft class and talk about the guys who didn't play a single NHL game and the 4th rounders that turned into All Stars.... to me, if I was a GM, I'd certainly not be inclined to give up a proven NHLer (I'm using Demitra as a test case) for a first round pick unless you had to for salary purposes.
Anyway, draw your own conclusions....
