If Pitkanen gets offered sheeted, I'd rather just turn around and put $7.5 million on the table for a Bouweemester OS. If you're going to spend money, you might as well get a player you know will be worth it.
Since neither of them has been signed yet, IMHO, it looks like Lowe is waiting for offer sheets on both of them.
I don't think that follows at all. Every year, many RFAs get qualifying offers and remain unsigned, often until right before training camp, or even after in the case of holdouts. 99% of those never get offer sheets. Most teams have many RFAs still unsigned, and 99% of those won't get offer sheets. IMO, it's simply business as usual in the NHL, and doesn't really mean anything.
I don't think that follows at all. Every year, many RFAs get qualifying offers and remain unsigned, often until right before training camp, or even after in the case of holdouts. 99% of those never get offer sheets. Most teams have many RFAs still unsigned, and 99% of those won't get offer sheets. IMO, it's simply business as usual in the NHL, and doesn't really mean anything.
I tend to agree with you on this, it doesn't really say anything at all to me other than Lowe is running an NHL team.
Although I do have a question, what exactly does a qualifiying offer entail? Can anybody fully explain?
I tend to agree with you on this, it doesn't really say anything at all to me other than Lowe is running an NHL team.
Although I do have a question, what exactly does a qualifiying offer entail? Can anybody fully explain?
Basically you just have to make an initial, formal offer to the RFA in order to keep their rights. If you don't, you lose their rights and they become a UFA. I believe that, under the CBA, your initial offer must be a certain % raise over their previous salary, though I'm not entirely sure what that number is... for some reason 5% rings a bell but maybe someone can tell us the correct number. I think things get tricky though when players are promoted to one-way contracts from two way. For example, if Pouliot signed a one-way deal, he could potentially sign for much less than his two way deal... so if his NHL salary was 900K this past season on a two way deal, I *think* the Oilers could sign him to a one way deal worth less than that.
If someone offers us 2-1sts, 1-2md, and 1-3rd for Pitkanen you take it as we have Chorney, Petry, Wild, and Bisaillon coming down the pipe and we can take a run at Redden if need be.
If someone offers us anything more than a 2nd round pick for Stoll, IMO you take that and run with it as well. IMO a singular 2nd rounder is a bit lean in terms of his worth, but it depends on the salary that he gets offered.
We could end up with a pile of picks, sign Redden, and not skip much of a beat. That would be tremendous asset management IMO.
Exactly my thoughts. If the OS offered is at the upper echelon for only a 2nd rounder, i'd still do it. We have no need to sign more contracts. Id rather have the picks. Stoll is done, at least as an Oiler. He could probably rebound but not with us. we are too deep in our positions to offer a spot that can showcase him much more.
What I dont get is why our fans insistent claim that he si worth a first rounder. He WAS worth one, but no more. 2nd rounder at best, imo.
I'm not entirely against Redden, but I don't see why some people would take him at $5mil+ over Pitkanen at aproximately the same price. Pits is younger and on the upswing, Redden seems to be moving backwards. Not to say he won't rebound in a different city, but it seems to me if we are paying a Dman around 5 million long term, it might as well be one who is in the core age group of the team
I'm not entirely against Redden, but I don't see why some people would take him at $5mil+ over Pitkanen at aproximately the same price. Pits is younger and on the upswing, Redden seems to be moving backwards. Not to say he won't rebound in a different city, but it seems to me if we are paying a Dman around 5 million long term, it might as well be one who is in the core age group of the team
Touche, but he's still, defensively, our best player. And surely he has, simply due to age, a better chance of coming back to score points than Redden does?
Touche, but he's still, defensively, our best player. And surely he has, simply due to age, a better chance of coming back to score points than Redden does?
Depends on the price. At least with Redden you know what you're getting. Joni...not so much.
Exactly my thoughts. If the OS offered is at the upper echelon for only a 2nd rounder, i'd still do it. We have no need to sign more contracts. Id rather have the picks. Stoll is done, at least as an Oiler. He could probably rebound but not with us. we are too deep in our positions to offer a spot that can showcase him much more.
What I dont get is why our fans insistent claim that he si worth a first rounder. He WAS worth one, but no more. 2nd rounder at best, imo.
I think if Lowe's priority was to trade Stoll for a 2nd round pick, that would have been done prior to the draft.
I think Lowe wants to keep Stoll, but at a low salary.
And Stoll probably does not want to sign a longterm deal at the rate Lowe is comfortable with. So Lowe simply decided to sit and wait. If Stoll gets OSed and signs a multiple year deal at a good rate, he matches. If not, he takes picks--whether it is a 2nd, or 1st and 3d remains to be seen.
I think the worst thing that can happen from Lowe's perspective at this point is Stoll getting no OS. Then Lowe would basially have to either trade Stoll while his value is at its lowest or sign him to a one year deal and then lose him for nothing next season.
OS might give him an opportuity to ink Stoll long-term, and if e bounces back (which I think he will), he can trade him for something nice next off-season, or perhaps even keep him over Horcoff (if Gagner is ready to challege for #1 job and Stoll is signed for something like 4*2.8M.)
Basically you just have to make an initial, formal offer to the RFA in order to keep their rights. If you don't, you lose their rights and they become a UFA. I believe that, under the CBA, your initial offer must be a certain % raise over their previous salary, though I'm not entirely sure what that number is... for some reason 5% rings a bell but maybe someone can tell us the correct number. I think things get tricky though when players are promoted to one-way contracts from two way. For example, if Pouliot signed a one-way deal, he could potentially sign for much less than his two way deal... so if his NHL salary was 900K this past season on a two way deal, I *think* the Oilers could sign him to a one way deal worth less than that.
Depends on the price. At least with Redden you know what you're getting. Joni...not so much.
Agreed. Although there are question marks around Redden too, but he's the better defenseman right now. If Joni signs a big money contract, it'll be based on the player we hope he becomes. If Redden does, it'll be based on the player he is (or was).
Paying for potential is fine, but only if it works out.
Redden is a safer bet and if it's a situation where we must choose between the two (assuming that a> we can sign Redden and b> that means we can't keep Pitkanen), I'd go for Redden at a similar or slightly higher price.
I think if Lowe's priority was to trade Stoll for a 2nd round pick, that would have been done prior to the draft.
I think Lowe wants to keep Stoll, but at a low salary.
And Stoll probably does not want to sign a longterm deal at the rate Lowe is comfortable with. So Lowe simply decided to sit and wait. If Stoll gets OSed and signs a multiple year deal at a good rate, he matches. If not, he takes picks--whether it is a 2nd, or 1st and 3d remains to be seen.
I think the worst thing that can happen from Lowe's perspective at this point is Stoll getting no OS. Then Lowe would basially have to either trade Stoll while his value is at its lowest or sign him to a one year deal and then lose him for nothing next season.
OS might give him an opportuity to ink Stoll long-term, and if e bounces back (which I think he will), he can trade him for something nice next off-season, or perhaps even keep him over Horcoff (if Gagner is ready to challege for #1 job and Stoll is signed for something like 4*2.8M.)
Same with Pitkanen.
I disagree, or at least if this is what Lowe wanted to do with Stoll, he should have taken him to arbitration in lieu of qualifying him. Stoll does not have good stats for arbitration purposes right now, and by qualifying and/or only leaving open the opportunity of an arbitration at or above his present salary, Lowe has taken a poorer route to get to his lowest price. That leads me to believe that he's looking for the offer sheet route to clear out his cap hit and get at least a 2nd back. Another thing that leads me to think that Lowe is serving Stoll up is that if he matches an offer sheet, Lowe can't trade Stoll for a year, which I don't think he wants either, since Stoll is a UFA at the end of his next contract. So if Stoll matched an offer sheet, he'd have no way of trading him for anything at the deadline.
The better way to go, IMO, would have been to take him to arbitration, settle at the church steps, and send him away to a team needing a faceoff man for a playoff run at the deadline. Lamentably, however, I think he's gone in the next few days and for a pick or picks. Yuck.
I disagree, or at least if this is what Lowe wanted to do with Stoll, he should have taken him to arbitration in lieu of qualifying him.
Maybe. I'd be really hesitant about taking Stoll to arbitration.
It would put him on a short-term UFA contract. PLUS, teams can only take a certain number of players to arbitration over a certain amount of time. I think it's twice in a three-year period.
That may be a card that's better played in the future, on different players. While Arbitration might be a good solution if we wanted to cut Stoll's salary a bit, I don't know how hard it would be to actually sign him to a 1 or 2 season deal at his current price - the most likely outcome of an Arbitration hearing.
If I were mapping the strategy, I'd leave Stoll unprotected as I worked on signing him to a longer-term contract along the lines of the one signed by Stephen Weiss. Maybe a bit shorter, 3-4 years, with less money - 2.5-3m. And if someone swoops in and signs him as an RFA, perhaps with revenge in mind, the compensation picks are probably market value, so it's not that big of a loss should I choose not to match.
I disagree, or at least if this is what Lowe wanted to do with Stoll, he should have taken him to arbitration in lieu of qualifying him. Stoll does not have good stats for arbitration purposes right now, and by qualifying and/or only leaving open the opportunity of an arbitration at or above his present salary, Lowe has taken a poorer route to get to his lowest price. That leads me to believe that he's looking for the offer sheet route to clear out his cap hit and get at least a 2nd back. Another thing that leads me to think that Lowe is serving Stoll up is that if he matches an offer sheet, Lowe can't trade Stoll for a year, which I don't think he wants either, since Stoll is a UFA at the end of his next contract. So if Stoll matched an offer sheet, he'd have no way of trading him for anything at the deadline.
The better way to go, IMO, would have been to take him to arbitration, settle at the church steps, and send him away to a team needing a faceoff man for a playoff run at the deadline. Lamentably, however, I think he's gone in the next few days and for a pick or picks. Yuck.
You did not read my post carfully enough.
Arbitration will give you only one year contract. I think Lowe can negotiate a low price one year deal with Stoll without going to arbitration, but that's not going to solve the main problem. Stoll is UFA next year.
I think ideally we want Stoll signed long-term in the range of 2.5-3M. This way if he bounces back to being the player he was prior to the injury, Oilers have a solid #2 center nearing his prime at a bargain contract. If he does not bounce all the way back that's still a good value for a 3d line center, PK and face-off specialist, who can also contribute on the PP.
If you so will, you can trade him next off-season, perhaps for more than a 2nd round pick.
Having Stoll locked at a good rate also gives Lowe a lot more flexibility when the time comes to deal with Horcoff. What if Stoll has a good season and Horcoff struggles (the situation from 2006/07). What if Gagner looks like he can challenge Horcoff for #1 by next off-season. Would you still pay Horcoff 5-6M, or would it be better to have Cogliano and Stoll as your 2a and 2b options.
By taking Stoll to arbitration or allowing him to become UFA next summer, you are basically guranteed that he will be gone, as his asking price might make him unaffordable at that point.
Pitkanen might be a bit different, because he's still RFA next summer.
Maybe. I'd be really hesitant about taking Stoll to arbitration.
It would put him on a short-term UFA contract. PLUS, teams can only take a certain number of players to arbitration over a certain amount of time. I think it's twice in a three-year period.
That may be a card that's better played in the future, on different players. While Arbitration might be a good solution if we wanted to cut Stoll's salary a bit, I don't know how hard it would be to actually sign him to a 1 or 2 season deal at his current price - the most likely outcome of an Arbitration hearing.
If I were mapping the strategy, I'd leave Stoll unprotected as I worked on signing him to a longer-term contract along the lines of the one signed by Stephen Weiss. Maybe a bit shorter, 3-4 years, with less money - 2.5-3m. And if someone swoops in and signs him as an RFA, perhaps with revenge in mind, the compensation picks are probably market value, so it's not that big of a loss should I choose not to match.
IMO, taking Stoll to arbitration prior to the "2nd chance" arbitration that happens only after other teams have had a chance to talk to Stoll and possibly making him an offer was the only viable strategy for keeping Stoll for this year as a "normal" or "unencumbered" asset at a reasonable price. Conversely, now that Stoll will be exposed during the July 1 to July 5 period at least, any offer sheet he accepts will become the floor price, and once there's an offer Lowe can't trade him. Lowe also can't trade him for a year if he matches, which means that any 1 year offer will mean that Lowe will not be able to get anything for him unless and until he signs him next summer as a UFA.
To me, the signs don't point to Lowe wanting to keep him. Instead, the signs point to Lowe wanting use the offer sheet process as a floor (with potential upside) to get at least a 2009 second for him, which was his original cost. Looks like its been a good run, but I think the die's been cast here. Can Pouliot win faceoffs?
To me, the signs don't point to Lowe wanting to keep him. Instead, the signs point to Lowe wanting use the offer sheet process as a floor (with potential upside) to get at least a 2009 second for him, which was his original cost. Looks like its been a good run, but I think the die's been cast here. Can Pouliot win faceoffs?
If that was the case, why not simply trade Stoll for a 2nd round draft pick?
C'mon, the useless turn-over machine named Bergeron recenly delivered a 3rd round pick. TB just traded a 3d for the rights to talk to Malone.
You would think that a young NHLer of Stoll's caliber will easily deliver a 2nd. How many players drafted in the 2nd round actually turn into players Stoll already is?
You did not read my post carfully enough.
Arbitration will give you only one year contract. I think Lowe can negotiate a low price one year deal with Stoll without going to arbitration, but that's not going to solve the main problem. Stoll is UFA next year.
I think ideally we want Stoll signed long-term in the range of 2.5-3M. This way if he bounces back to being the player he was prior to the injury, Oilers have a solid #2 center nearing his prime at a bargain contract. If he does not bounce all the way back that's still a good value for a 3d line center, PK and face-off specialist, who can also contribute on the PP.
If you so will, you can trade him next off-season, perhaps for more than a 2nd round pick.
Having Stoll locked at a good rate also gives Lowe a lot more flexibility when the time comes to deal with Horcoff. What if Stoll has a good season and Horcoff struggles (the situation from 2006/07). What if Gagner looks like he can challenge Horcoff for #1 by next off-season. Would you still pay Horcoff 5-6M, or would it be better to have Cogliano and Stoll as your 2a and 2b options.
By taking Stoll to arbitration or allowing him to become UFA next summer, you are basically guranteed that he will be gone, as his asking price might make him unaffordable at that point.
Pitkanen might be a bit different, because he's still RFA next summer.
With respect, I think I got your gist, but I think we're starting from different premises. My premise, which I have not articulated, is that Lowe does not have any comfort right now that Stoll is someone he wants to lock up long term at between 2.5-3 million dollars. If he did, the best way to do that would have been to negotiate with him from the end of the season to try and get that contract. Instead, what little news about Stoll's contract situation there's been this spring is that virtually no negotiations have taken place, which has apparently been disconcerting to Stoll.
Instead, now that Stoll has been qualified, other teams are starting to talk to him. If I'm Lowe, and I want somebody cheap, the last thing I do is to let competitors wisper in his ear first. I just don't think the signs are there that he's coming back. That's just me. If we disagree, so be it. We'll see shortly.
With respect, I think I got your gist, but I think we're starting from different premises. My premise, which I have not articulated, is that Lowe does not have any comfort right now that Stoll is someone he wants to lock up long term at between 2.5-3 million dollars. If he did, the best way to do that would have been to negotiate with him from the end of the season to try and get that contract. Instead, what little news about Stoll's contract situation there's been this spring is that virtually no negotiations have taken place, which has apparently been disconcerting to Stoll.
Instead, now that Stoll has been qualified, other teams are starting to talk to him. If I'm Lowe, and I want somebody cheap, the last thing I do is to let competitors wisper in his ear first. I just don't think the signs are there that he's coming back. That's just me. If we disagree, so be it. We'll see shortly.
Has anybody heard at what number Lowe qualified Pitkanen or Stoll? It seems to me that he can go as low as 85% of the last year of the last contract. Is that right or am I confused as usual?
If that was the case, why not simply trade Stoll for a 2nd round draft pick?
C'mon, the useless turn-over machine named Bergeron recenly delivered a 3rd round pick. TB just traded a 3d for the rights to talk to Malone.
You would think that a young NHLer of Stoll's caliber will easily deliver a 2nd. How many players drafted in the 2nd round actually turn into players Stoll already is?
I'll turn that back around. If Lowe wanted Stoll long term, why not just sign him. There is no jungle telegraph telling us that Lowe's made an offer, Stoll's side has countered, and the parties are at impasse. Instead, the only thing we've heard is that essentially no serious discussions have taken place.
If I'm an interloper team right now, the pitch I make to Stoll is to sign a one year offer sheet at a dollar below the 1st and 3rd level. That way, if Lowe matches, he can't trade him before his last RFA year expires and Stoll has to hit the market. So if Stoll has his rebound year, the potential of which his side has to be selling hugely given that his recent track record is poor right now, he'll hit the big payday after July 1 next year. I think the only way we're looking at more than a 2nd back is if there is a bidding war of other teams wanting to give offer sheets to Stoll.
Last edited by hillbillypriest: 06-29-2008 at 09:05 PM.
Reason: punctuation.
I'll turn that back around. If Lowe wanted Stoll long term, why not just sign him. There is no jungle telegraph telling us that Lowe's made an offer, Stoll's side has countered, and the parties are at impasse. Instead, the only thing we've heard is that essentially no serious discussions have taken place.
If I'm an interloper team right now, the pitch I make to Stoll is to sign a one year offer sheet at a dollar below the 1st and 3rd level. That way, if Lowe matches, he can't trade him before his last RFA year expires and Stoll has to hit the market. So if Stoll has his rebound year, the potential of which his side has to be selling hugely given that his recent track record is poor right now, he'll hit the big payday after July 1 next year. I think the only way we're looking at more than a 2nd back is if there is a bidding war of other teams wanting to give offer sheets to Stoll.
That still works for Lowe, because it seems like he couldn't even get a 2nd rounder for Stoll right now, so he makes a rental trade to the other team with probably higher trade value through OS. Besides, if there is indeed a bidding war, Lowe wins with either higher compensation or a long term offer, which Lowe can still match if he deems it reasonable.
Anything around Stoll right now is a gamble anyways, no matter how you look at it...
