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The Curse of the Centennial

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Old
07-02-2008, 03:40 AM
  #1
Coach Parker
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The Curse of the Centennial

Hear me out Habs fans...

I have listened all year as the season progressed about the young talent and future that this team has, and that the future is bright for this team...

Next year the Habs have 8 UFAS including: Tanguay, Kovalev, Koivu, Begin, Kostopoulos, Boullion, Dandenault, and Komisarek...

They also have 4 RFA's which include: Higgins, Plekanac, Chipchura, and Latendresse.

If the talent pool is so young and has so much potential, and a lot of the UFA's next year are the core, then don't you find it a little scary to have Montreal potentially signing Hossa to 6+ years at 9 million?

I was wondering also if it scares any fans that for the first time in a decade Habs fans are very optimistic about their youth movement, and the potential centennial might force management to make some acquisitions that will cost them youth in the near future? (no cap room to sign them all when the time comes)

When I hear about Hossa, Sundin, and Bertuzzi coming to Montreal it seems to be very contradictory of the current roster...

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Old
07-02-2008, 03:44 AM
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as long as we don't trade players, short term contracts can't hurt too much

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Old
07-02-2008, 04:01 AM
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Kimota
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Parker View Post
Hear me out Habs fans...

I have listened all year as the season progressed about the young talent and future that this team has, and that the future is bright for this team...

Next year the Habs have 8 UFAS including: Tanguay, Kovalev, Koivu, Begin, Kostopoulos, Boullion, Dandenault, and Komisarek...

They also have 4 RFA's which include: Higgins, Plekanac, Chipchura, and Latendresse.

If the talent pool is so young and has so much potential, and a lot of the UFA's next year are the core, then don't you find it a little scary to have Montreal potentially signing Hossa to 6+ years at 9 million?

I was wondering also if it scares any fans that for the first time in a decade Habs fans are very optimistic about their youth movement, and the potential centennial might force management to make some acquisitions that will cost them youth in the near future? (no cap room to sign them all when the time comes)

When I hear about Hossa, Sundin, and Bertuzzi coming to Montreal it seems to be very contradictory of the current roster...
It doesn't scare me because I don't expect/or want most these guys to come back.

Let's break down your list of players:

First I still think Dandy will be bought out and won't play for us this year. Second, guys like Bouillon and Begin will already be old this year; I figure they won't be signed next year. I wouldn't surprised if there's a great offer, Higgins gets traded before or during the season THIS year.

Finaly in 2009 you have an old Saku and an old Kovy pretty much near their last contract with the club. I don't think Bob will give them the klondike. It would be ridiculous to do so.

All in all, the Habs would only have to worry about signing Komi, Plek and Tanguay.

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07-02-2008, 05:34 AM
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I trust the management that is in place to not make wild mistakes that would screw the future. Gainey is fairly conservative and would not do something so stupid that would mess the work he has already done.

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Old
07-02-2008, 05:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Parker View Post
Hear me out Habs fans...

I have listened all year as the season progressed about the young talent and future that this team has, and that the future is bright for this team...

Next year the Habs have 8 UFAS including: Tanguay, Kovalev, Koivu, Begin, Kostopoulos, Boullion, Dandenault, and Komisarek...

They also have 4 RFA's which include: Higgins, Plekanac, Chipchura, and Latendresse.

If the talent pool is so young and has so much potential, and a lot of the UFA's next year are the core, then don't you find it a little scary to have Montreal potentially signing Hossa to 6+ years at 9 million?

I was wondering also if it scares any fans that for the first time in a decade Habs fans are very optimistic about their youth movement, and the potential centennial might force management to make some acquisitions that will cost them youth in the near future? (no cap room to sign them all when the time comes)

When I hear about Hossa, Sundin, and Bertuzzi coming to Montreal it seems to be very contradictory of the current roster...

Being wary of acquiring good players for fear of potentially losing good players down the road is probably akin to not wanting to have kids out of fear they may move out of the house some day.

I don't think there's centennial pressure, if there's pressure it comes from the fact that Montreal are in a window where they have a good mix of players that can compete for championships, and to earn his money Gainey has to get them over the top. Gainey's job gets relatively difficult now.

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Old
07-02-2008, 06:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Parker View Post
Hear me out Habs fans...

I have listened all year as the season progressed about the young talent and future that this team has, and that the future is bright for this team...

Next year the Habs have 8 UFAS including: Tanguay, Kovalev, Koivu, Begin, Kostopoulos, Boullion, Dandenault, and Komisarek...

They also have 4 RFA's which include: Higgins, Plekanac, Chipchura, and Latendresse.

If the talent pool is so young and has so much potential, and a lot of the UFA's next year are the core, then don't you find it a little scary to have Montreal potentially signing Hossa to 6+ years at 9 million?

I was wondering also if it scares any fans that for the first time in a decade Habs fans are very optimistic about their youth movement, and the potential centennial might force management to make some acquisitions that will cost them youth in the near future? (no cap room to sign them all when the time comes)

When I hear about Hossa, Sundin, and Bertuzzi coming to Montreal it seems to be very contradictory of the current roster...
I heard you out, but I did the math and don't see the same danger.

Of the three you mention, it is Hossa that has the potential to clog the cap space. As long as Sundin's contract is for only one year, even 11 million doesn't hurt at all in the short OR medium OR long run.

Bertuzzi, while a surprising name, won't hurt either if he comes on a Smolinski type contract.

Assume for a moment that it's Sundin, and that next year's cap goes up by just $4M.

Then if he does not re-sign, we will have $15.1M of space going in. Add the expiring contracts of Dandenault, Bouillon, Begin and Kostopoulos and the end of the Chicago trade buyouts, and we are up to $21.5M of space. Put in five youngsters at 0.75M each to replace the five players above, and we are back at $17.8M of space, to give raises, and leave some more money for a new short-term deal.

Now, give out the following raises:

Komisarek 4.0 (to 5.7M)
Kovalev 3.5 (to 8.0M 1 yr - assuming he EARNS it)
Plekanec 2.0 (RFA to 3.6M)
Higgins 1.5 (RFA to 3.2M)
Tanguay 0.3 (to 5.5M - assuming he EARNS it)
Koivu 0.3 (to 5.0M 1 yr - assuming he can still put up 45-50 points)
Chipchura 0.1 (RFA to 1.0)

Total ..... 11.7

Balance still remaining 6.1M which is plenty and gives us an EXCELLENT roster!!. This assumes that Kovy and Koivu and Tanguay are all still playing well; but if not, we will have the money to REPLACE them!!

If we lock up Hossa instead of hiring Sundin for 1 year, then Hossa will simply replace one out of the three players Kovalev/Koivu/Tanguay and we will have a bit less room for a new rental..... but we won't need one because we will still have THREE impact forwards.

I'm not worried, as long as we don't take on a 14 goal scorer with a 3 year $12M contract or hire a 35 year old centreman with declining offense for FOUR years at $5M each.

Cool?

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Old
07-02-2008, 06:51 AM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kimota View Post
It doesn't scare me because I don't expect/or want most these guys to come back.

Let's break down your list of players:

First I still think Dandy will be bought out and won't play for us this year.
FWIW, the buyout period is over, right? We don't have anybody going to arbitration, do we? I could see Dandenault waived and/or McGillisized if we end up needing the cap room, but he won't be bought out.
Quote:
Second, guys like Bouillon and Begin will already be old this year; I figure they won't be signed next year. I wouldn't surprised if there's a great offer, Higgins gets traded before or during the season THIS year.
Having the contracts of Begin, Bouillon, Dandenault, and Kostopolous expire will free up a little cash. But... we have tens of millions to spend if we want to retain our core guys, so that's a drop in the bucket, relatively speaking.

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Old
07-02-2008, 06:58 AM
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Komisarek 6 mill
Kovalev 5.5 mill
Plekanec 5 mill
Higgins 4.5 mill
Tanguay 4 mill
Koivu 4 mill
Chip 1 mill

that's about 30 million right there...let's not kid ourselves, we'll most likely lose at least 2 of these players...

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Old
07-02-2008, 07:07 AM
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Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
I heard you out, but I did the math and don't see the same danger.

Of the three you mention, it is Hossa that has the potential to clog the cap space. As long as Sundin's contract is for only one year, even 11 million doesn't hurt at all in the short OR medium OR long run.

Bertuzzi, while a surprising name, won't hurt either if he comes on a Smolinski type contract.

Assume for a moment that it's Sundin, and that next year's cap goes up by just $4M.

Then if he does not re-sign, we will have $15.1M of space going in. Add the expiring contracts of Dandenault, Bouillon, Begin and Kostopoulos and the end of the Chicago trade buyouts, and we are up to $21.5M of space. Put in five youngsters at 0.75M each to replace the five players above, and we are back at $17.8M of space, to give raises, and leave some more money for a new short-term deal.

Now, give out the following raises:

Komisarek 4.0 (to 5.7M)
Kovalev 3.5 (to 8.0M 1 yr - assuming he EARNS it)
Plekanec 2.0 (RFA to 3.6M)
Higgins 1.5 (RFA to 3.2M)
Tanguay 0.3 (to 5.5M - assuming he EARNS it)
Koivu 0.3 (to 5.0M 1 yr - assuming he can still put up 45-50 points)
Chipchura 0.1 (RFA to 1.0)

Total ..... 11.7

Balance still remaining 6.1M which is plenty and gives us an EXCELLENT roster!!. This assumes that Kovy and Koivu and Tanguay are all still playing well; but if not, we will have the money to REPLACE them!!

If we lock up Hossa instead of hiring Sundin for 1 year, then Hossa will simply replace one out of the three players Kovalev/Koivu/Tanguay and we will have a bit less room for a new rental..... but we won't need one because we will still have THREE impact forwards.

I'm not worried, as long as we don't take on a 14 goal scorer with a 3 year $12M contract or hire a 35 year old centreman with declining offense for FOUR years at $5M each.

Cool?
Great Calcuations

I feel that instead of going for the final impact player, we go for some smaller touch ups

sign Demitra to a 2 year, 8 million dollar contract
sign Bertuzzi to a 2 year, 5 million dollar contract

that way we still have about 3.5 million left in cap space to potentially use for a deadline deal.

when the cap raises next year, we'll have enough to resign everyone we need.

If we sign Hossa though, I pick hime over Tanguay though

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Old
07-02-2008, 09:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAntiprice View Post
Komisarek 6 mill
Kovalev 5.5 mill
Plekanec 5 mill
Higgins 4.5 mill
Tanguay 4 mill
Koivu 4 mill

Chip 1 mill

that's about 30 million right there...let's not kid ourselves, we'll most likely lose at least 2 of these players...
Komisarek will get 6???
and Koivu and Tanguay take paycuts??
You on some bad green mon ami

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Old
07-02-2008, 09:15 AM
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Komi deserves 3.5.....IMO

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Old
07-02-2008, 09:26 AM
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Komi deserves 3.5.....IMO
He will get more than that on the open market so in my estimation it will take at least 5m to keep him here long term. Komi is on his way (if not already) to be a premium defensive defensemen in the league and a lot of teams wish they could have a guy who hit like a train , block shots and lead like he does.

Ideally we should try to sign him to an extention before he becomes a UFA because otherwise i think that he's going to be a huge target and we should try to avoid a bidding war at any costs (literally).

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Old
07-02-2008, 09:29 AM
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I trust the management that is in place to not make wild mistakes that would screw the future. Gainey is fairly conservative and would not do something so stupid that would mess the work he has already done.
Being conservative is better than screwing a team for years to come

Example: Houle, Milbury, Ferguson Jr.

Just relax and let Gainey and Timmins and the crew work carefully and patiently with what they have.

(Not that anyone needs advice they didn't ask for)

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Old
07-02-2008, 09:30 AM
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Originally Posted by TheAntiprice View Post
Komisarek 6 mill
Kovalev 5.5 mill
Plekanec 5 mill
Higgins 4.5 mill
Tanguay 4 mill
Koivu 4 mill
Chip 1 mill

that's about 30 million right there...let's not kid ourselves, we'll most likely lose at least 2 of these players...
Why? Without quibbling about $1M plus or minus on the above names, I will agree for argument's sake that the first five will cost $29M.

Those five players, plus Markov, Hamrlik, AKost, SKost and Price, are the CORE of the team.

The CORE will cost 46.5.

The balance of the players, 10 plus 3 spares, will average under $1M each.

No problem-o.

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Old
07-02-2008, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheAntiprice View Post
Komisarek 6 mill
Kovalev 5.5 mill
Plekanec 5 mill
Higgins 4.5 mill
Tanguay 4 mill
Koivu 4 mill
Chip 1 mill

that's about 30 million right there...let's not kid ourselves, we'll most likely lose at least 2 of these players...
You're dreaming big time if you believe Komi will get 6 mil.... max 4,5.... he doesn't produce as much as all the Dmen who get 5-6 mil.... land back on earth.

An aging player like Kovalev who would want to stay here will either resign for the same amount or less or go away, not 5,5 mil.

Higgins won't get 4,5 mil... make that a mil less.

And Koivu would be in the same situation as Kovy, So I think that the 4 mil you gave is an absolute MAX for Koivu.

Tanguay would still probably ask for at least 5 mil as he's in his prime.

So that makes what 29 mil?? And let's see what they will cost this year compared to your next year estimate...

Komi (1,7) Koivu (4,75) Kovalev (4,5) Tanguay (5,25) Plekanec (1,6) Higgins (1,7) Chips (1,0) =
20,5....

So what??? it would be an increase of 8,5 millions on the cap, but that's not counting the rebate we would get by letting go Dandy, Bouillon, Begin and Kosto (or resigning them for less) and replacing them with youth. This would give an additional 3 mil of space on the cap... so what's left to add? (8,5 minus 3,0 mil = 5,5 mil)

If the cap rises, their is no problem resigning all of our players. If the cap stays the same, we'll have to let go ONE player of either Kovalev, Koivu or Tanguay to compensate for this rise of 5,5 mil on the cap.
And that's if we DO sign Sundin or Hossa, meaning we would still have that player, and the lost of either one of Kovy, Koivu or Tanguay won't be so bad...


Last edited by Ozymandias: 07-02-2008 at 09:45 AM.
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Old
07-02-2008, 09:57 AM
  #16
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the number of free agents next yr is worrisome. i for one would not be looking to sign a UFA for 8+million right now!

Aquiring Tanguay was enough for me, and i think that he will have a nice impact on the team.

in terms of contract, i beleive it is possible to bring back all these guys, as long as hossa does not sign for 12million with the habs, which imo is REdiculous

these would be more reasonable estimates, that is of course if each of these players wishes to return. it will depend on their success this season

Tanguay 5.5 mil
Kovalev 5.5 mil
Koivu 5 mill
Komisarek 4.8 mil
Plekanec 4.5 mil
Higgins 4.5 mil
total:29.8mil for 6 players

better than 29mil for 3 players like some teams have

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