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OT - Detroit drafting well a myth ??

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Old
07-10-2008, 09:52 AM
  #26
Bermy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by keyven View Post
I agree with that and they play hockey like all 30 teams should play it.
+1 they're really fun to watch

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Old
07-10-2008, 09:54 AM
  #27
gmalicoat
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Uhhh maybe you should check Detroit's average drafting position compared to Montreal's. Kinda left that part out of your expert analysis.
You sir, are a D*CK--and I LOVE it

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07-10-2008, 10:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Kostopoulos View Post
It is a myth and there is a lot of luck involved.
If they thought Zetterberg or Datsyuk would be superstars, they would have drafted them in the first or second round. Anything below those rounds is mainly luck.

Detroit is still overally the best managed organization.
thats just stupid. Why would Detroit want to draft unranked or 200 something ranked players in the first round and WASTE the pick when they can get them in the later rounds?

Detroit has yet to turn out a lot of first rounders because we dont keep many. Fischer would be a top 4 NHLer right now if he didnt get hurt. Just a FYI.

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07-10-2008, 10:12 AM
  #29
Dave Karp
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As mentioned, there are too many variables left out. The main thing in my opinion is Organizational Philosophy. At the trade deadline are they moving picks and prospects for guys to get them to the Cup? Are they signing older players during Free Agency or are they building within their system? Also drafting position is an obvious one. Number of draft picks in each draft, say having 10 draft picks in a strong year is much better than having 10 in a weak year. Trading away prospects to other teams is a factor as well, what if a player would've been stuck on the 4th line on the Wings but gets traded to a low feeder and ends up being successful? Is that because he also had the talent, or because he was given a chance and groomed into a role? There are too many different variables then to look at players drafted and points. I think most people in the hockey world would agree, however, that the Wings are the best drafting team and have been for awhile.

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07-10-2008, 10:15 AM
  #30
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As has been stated:

1) Detroit consistently drafts close to last each round
2) Detroit for years made a habit of trading away their top round picks

Quote:
Thats always been my thoughts as well. They fluked out on those late round gems. If they truly saw star potential in those players when they were drafted, they wouldnt have waited so long.
False. Datsyuk and Zetterberg especially were not on any one's radars. Andersson knew this. Zetterberg was playing in an obscure league and was only seen by chance.

A good scout has an idea of how much interest a player is generating from other scouts (through relationships with coaches, managers, etc...). Datsyuk and Zetterberg received none. It was very safe to draft them late.

From wikipedia:

Quote:
Datsyuk was first noticed by Red Wings Director of European Scouting Håkan Andersson in the winter of 1997-98. Andersson had made the trip to Moscow to scout Dmitri Kalinin but the one who caught his eye was Datsyuk, "this little guy on the other team". Andersson made another trip to see Datsyuk and would have gone a third time however his flight was cancelled due to a storm. A scout from St. Louis was on the plane as well, on his way to the same game, and as a result of that storm Andersson believes he is the only NHL scout to have seen Datsyuk play prior to the 1998 NHL Entry Draft, when the Wings drafted him 171st overall.[1][2] He played for the Ekaterinburg Dynamo for the 1997–1998 and 1999–2000 seasons before moving to the Russian Super League's Ak Bars Kazan for the 2000–2001 season. His numbers were not exceptionally impressive in the RSL, but the Red Wings saw enough in him to bring him to the NHL the next season.
Alex Edler would have been another one whom no one other than Andersson saw, but he let it slip to the coach he was coming to see him and the coach informed a Vancouver scout about it. Vancouver then traded up to take Edler.

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Old
07-10-2008, 10:24 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by gmalicoat View Post
You sir, are a D*CK--and I LOVE it
You love D*ck as we all can understand. I'm not homophobe and we all can have different taste.

I'm truly ok with that.

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07-10-2008, 10:27 AM
  #32
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I'd be more inclined to say that their player development programs and coaching throughout their systems are head and shoulders above the league as opposed to simply their drafting.

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07-10-2008, 10:28 AM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zetterberg40 View Post
thats just stupid. Why would Detroit want to draft unranked or 200 something ranked players in the first round and WASTE the pick when they can get them in the later rounds?

Detroit has yet to turn out a lot of first rounders because we dont keep many. Fischer would be a top 4 NHLer right now if he didnt get hurt. Just a FYI.
And I have to agree with that to some degree. Same reason why we heard that somebody in the Habs org. loved so much Sergei Kostitsyn that he wanted to pick in the 2nd or 3rd round but the rest of the org. thought that we could take the chance to get him later 'cause there was other names in there we would not ready to take the same chance.....

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Old
07-10-2008, 10:30 AM
  #34
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Detroit drafts from one particular country and stick with it. It seems to work.

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Old
07-10-2008, 10:36 AM
  #35
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Here's something else to consider. It's been mentioned that Detroit's average draft position was lower than Montreal's, but just how big of a difference was there?

Avg. DET Draft Position: 156.1 (5th pick in the 6th round)
Avg. MTL Draft Position: 130.6 (9th pick in the 5th round)

So on average Montreal's players have been selected almost one round earlier than Detroit's. During the 1998-2007 time frame you listed, the lowest draft pick Detroit had was 19th overall. Montreal has had 9 players picked lower than that during that timespan, including 3 picks in the top 10. Detroit has drafted only 3 players in the first 30 picks (1st round) compared to 12 for Montreal. I think there is no debate that the average quality of player Montreal has had access to when drafting is far superior than the quality of player Detroit has access to.

Quote:
Originally Posted by goliath5151 View Post
BUT what they do certainly have is a great development method. But you can also point out that their early round drafting hasnt been very good, and that they certainly dont grow a lot of players to the NHL level, only a few very good ones.
I challenge you to find a team with a better draft record in the early rounds than Detroit. Players in the top 3 rounds are generally considered to be good bets to make the NHL and the rest are all longshots or projects. Here's Detroit's track record on picks in the top 90 (Rounds 1-3) during the time frame you mentioned (good picks in RED):

1998 Draft
1/30: D Jiri Fischer (retired early with a heart condition)
2/55: LW Ryan Barnes (2 NHL games)
2/56: LW Tomek Valtonen
3/84: G Jake McCracken

1999 Draft
No picks in the top 90. First pick wasn't until the 4th round, 120th overall

2000 Draft
1/29: D Niklas Kronwall (top pair defenseman)
2/38: RW Tomas Kopecky (solid bottom 6 forward who can't stay healthy)

2001 Draft
2/62: RW Igor Grigorenko (called the best player not in the NHL prior to a near-fatal car accident that almost cost him his leg and required multiple surgical procedures to repair. It's a minor miracle that he's even able to play at all still)

2002 Draft
2/58: C Jiri Hudler (top 6 forward trapped on the 4th line in Detroit)
2/63: RW Tomas Fleischmann (traded to Washington where he's a regular)
3/95: C Valtteri Filppula (2nd line center)

2003 Draft
2/64: G Jimmy Howard (will compete for a backup job in Detroit but likely won't be on the team until next season, too early to call him a good/bad pick)

2004 Draft
3/97: C Johan Franzen (top 6 forward good for 20 goals minimum and may be poised for a breakout season)

2005 Draft
1/19: D Jakub Kindl (too early to evaluate)
2/42: LW Justin Abdelkader (played 2 games in Detroit last season; too early to evaluate)
3/80: C Christofer Lofberg (not offered a contract; family issues derailed his development)

2006 Draft
2/42: C Cory Emmerton (bout of mono cost him a WJC roster spot; too early to evaluate)
2/47: C Shawn Matthias (appears to be an impact player; too early to evaluate)
2/62: LW Dick Axelsson (already signed a contract; too early to evaulate)
3/92: G Daniel Larsson (won the SEL version of the Vezina last season; too early to evaulate)

2007 Draft
1/27: D Brendan Smith (injury-plagued freshman season at Wisconsin; too early to evaluate)
3/88: C Joakim Andersson (too early to evaluate)

So discounting players from 2005 and onward since it's too soon to evaluate them as good picks or busts, the Wings have taken 12 players in the first 90 picks (rounds 1-3) from 1998-2004 and of them the only "busts" were Ryan Barnes (1997), Tomek Valtonen (1997), Jake McCracken (1997), Igor Grigorenko (2001), and Jimmy Howard (2003). Now I'd contend that you can't call Jimmy Howard a "bust" yet mainly because of Detroit's notoriously long development period for players so take him out of the equation. I'd also say it's unfair to label Grigorenko a "bust" since he viewed not only by the Wings but by the hockey world in general as a top line impact NHL player before nearly getting killed and losing his leg in the car accident. If you re-evaulate it based on that, the only "bust" picks Detroit has made in that time frame were in 1997. That means from 1997-2004 (discounting Howard and Grigorenko) the Wings have had a 70% success rate on drafting quality NHL players in the first 90 picks (rounds 1-3). Show me another team with a better track record than that, because there isn't one.


Last edited by FissionFire: 07-10-2008 at 10:46 AM.
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Old
07-10-2008, 10:38 AM
  #36
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Darren Helm says "Hi retards."

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07-10-2008, 10:44 AM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Helm1Crosby0 View Post
Darren Helm says "Hi retards."
hahaha.

And the OP is comparing late round picks, looks like 2nd and on, not overall drafting. Want to include Tomas Fleischmann? Then we get to add Beauchemin ?

The later rounds of the draft are close, but with players like Datsyuk and Zetterberg, Detroit wins.

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Old
07-10-2008, 10:45 AM
  #38
FissionFire
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CacaLauncher23 View Post
Detroit drafts from one particular country and stick with it. It seems to work.
Not true at all. Of the players drafted in round 1-3 by Detroit from 1998-2007, the distribution breaks down as:

Canada: 5 (Barnes, Emmerton, Matthias, McCracken, Smith)
Czech Republic: 5 (Fischer, Fleischmann, Hudler, Kindl, Kopecky)
Finland: 1 (Filppula)
Poland: 1 (Valtonen)
Russia: 1 (Grigorenko)
Sweden: 6 (Andersson, Axelsson, Franzen, Kronwall, Larssen, Lofberg)
United States: 2 (Abdelkader, Howard)

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07-10-2008, 10:49 AM
  #39
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FissionFire, you know we drafted another centre in '05 right?

And in five days he's partying with the Cup...you know that...RIGHT?!

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Old
07-10-2008, 10:55 AM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Helm1Crosby0 View Post
FissionFire, you know we drafted another centre in '05 right?

And in five days he's partying with the Cup...you know that...RIGHT?!
He was a fifth round pick no?

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Old
07-10-2008, 10:59 AM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Helm1Crosby0 View Post
Darren Helm says "Hi retards."
Then Darren Helm sure is one mature cat.

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Old
07-10-2008, 11:01 AM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Then Darren Helm sure is one mature cat.
I'm paraphrasing. He's currently indisposed.

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Old
07-10-2008, 11:01 AM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garo View Post
He was a fifth round pick no?
He was.

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Old
07-10-2008, 11:11 AM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
hahaha.

And the OP is comparing late round picks, looks like 2nd and on, not overall drafting. Want to include Tomas Fleischmann? Then we get to add Beauchemin ?

The later rounds of the draft are close, but with players like Datsyuk and Zetterberg, Detroit wins.
Calling the 2nd round a "later round" seems kinda sketchy. I'd consider anything from the 4th round on to be a "later round". Here's Detroit's track record with picks 91+ (rounds 4+) in the time frame mentioned (players still with Detroit who have played in the NHL or will compete for a roster spot this season):

1998: C Pavel Datsyuk (6/171)
1999: LW Henrik Zetterberg (7/210)
2000: Nothing
2001: D Dmitry Bykov (8/258) - 1st pairing with Lidstrom as a rookie before getting homesick and returning to Russia for the rest of his career)
2002: D Derek Meech (7/229), D Jonathan Ericsson (9/291)
2003: D Kyle Quincey (4/132)
2004: Nothing
2005: C Darren Helm (5/132)
2006: D Logan Pyett (7/212)

I left out 2007 since those players haven't reached the signing deadline yet. This is just a partial list as well. There are some other players still in the Detroit system or elsewhere in the NHL that were drafted late or its still too soon to evaluate. These players would be RW Andreas Jamtin (5/157, 2001 - signed by NYR), LW Ryan Oulahen (5/164, 2003 - in our system), C Evan McGrath (4/128, 2004 - in our system), D Sergei Kolosov (5/151, 2004 - just signed last month), LW Mattias Ritola (4/103 - played 2 NHL games last year in Detroit), LW Johan Ryno (5/137 - developing in Sweden), and LW Jan Mursak (6/182, 2006 - impact player last year in Belleville).

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Old
07-10-2008, 11:12 AM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by keyven View Post
I did that for fun while I was surfing on hockeydb.com. I count out how many players, pts and games played that was recorded from Detroit and Montreal drafted players between 1998 and 2007.

Here's my result :

Detroit

82 drafted players
2243 games played
1172 pts
0,52 pts/game

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00005492.html

Montreal

88 drafted players
3671 games played
2139 pts
0,58 pts/game

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00006929.html

I know we didn't draft players like Datsyuk and Zetterberg but could we just stop saying that Detroit is good at the draft table ?

Argue !
You can't compare pts and GP. Detroit has always finished close to 1st of the league, while Habs missed the POs quite a number of times.

Also, as soon as Savard came in as the scout, we started drafting much better. Timmins did an even better job so far.

So, Detroit drafts extremely well considering their position year after year. Montreal also made some great picks in later rounds.

Detroit and Mtl can be considered to be the best drafting teams today.

Michel Bergeron would agree with you in a second, seeing he keeps repeation on 110% that he'd fire the guy who drafted Datsyuk/Zetterberg, because he says ''he drafted them too late''..even though Detroit still got them, and that 29other teams didn't even have them on their list.

It's not a myth, a bit of luck is always needed, but they've been drafting very well. Montreal has been drafting great for a number of years now also

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Old
07-10-2008, 11:17 AM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Falconer View Post
You're not taking into account draft position.
If you use an "expected success rate per pick" then they become much more impressive.
In late rounds the expected success rate per pick is sufficiently low that the difference between picks is likely very small at best, and negligible at worst.

From the list of player Keyven put in another post, all but two players are 3rd round and later.

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Old
07-10-2008, 11:18 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Helm1Crosby0 View Post
I'm paraphrasing. He's currently indisposed.
Yeah, it wasn't really Helm I was referring to anyway.

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Old
07-10-2008, 11:21 AM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Yeah, it wasn't really Helm I was referring to anyway.
Meh.

And I was referring more to FissionFire.

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Old
07-10-2008, 11:22 AM
  #49
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Another variable not talked about is starting point. 1998 is pretty random. Detroit had already drafted and developed several players even by that time, including a fella named Lidstrom. And they had plenty of success the previous five years, so their draft position wasn't all that good in the 90's either. We, of course, were not in a great position by 1998 and had no drafted stars on the roster.

Not to mention the competitive atmosphere of the Detroit organization, and the talent level and leadership the young players had around them breaking in. That's GOTTA help with development.

And Franzen needs to be added to the Zetter/Datsyuk marvelling when it comes to late picks. He's exactly the player everyone needs. Kronwall too. That's four core players drawn from late picks. Pretty impressive.

They've out Euro-scouted everyone. Not sure about their North American track record though. Would like to see the split analysis because I consider 97, 98 and 01 as bought Cups in an uneven NHL, and the last one as long-time-coming (as was 97). Of course, that's been argued about some of our Cups as well (though we all know that story).

When I think that Bowman could have brought his people to Toronto, it just makes me feel sorry for Leaf fans about what could have been. Bowman still doesn't get enough credit for what he did in Pittsburgh as well, not to mention St. Louis, etc.


Last edited by tinyzombies: 07-10-2008 at 11:34 AM.
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Old
07-10-2008, 11:39 AM
  #50
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Years without a 1st round pick for DET during that span:

1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006

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