I challenge you to find a team with a better draft record in the early rounds than Detroit. Players in the top 3 rounds are generally considered to be good bets to make the NHL and the rest are all longshots or projects.
Just for fun, let's make the same breakdown for Montréal. Not going back to 1998, but to 2001, because that's when André Savard / Trevor Timmins started to draft for us.
1/7 - Mike Komisarek : plays on our D's first pairing.
1/25 - Alexander Perezhogin : made his room on the 3rd line with potential to go higher before he decided to cash-in in Russia.
2/37 - Duncan Milroy : a former WHL star...not so much in the AHL, played 5 NHL games still.
3/71 - Tomas Plekanec : 1st/2nd center, 69 points last season, enough said.
1/14 - Chris Higgins : top 6 left winger with strong two-way play.
2/45 - Tomas Linhart : bust.
1/10 - Andreï Kostitsyn : top 6 winger, still untapped potential.
2/40 - Cory Urquhart : bust, had written "Eric Chouinard" on his forehead, never understood that pick.
2/61 - Maxim Lapierre : bottom 6 regular "agitator" type.
3/79 - Ryan O'Byrne : big stay-at-home defenseman, just became a NHL regular, has still room to improve.
1/18 - Kyle Chipchura : started last season in Montréal, should stay in the NHL this year and for years to come, two-way C with leadership.
3/84 - Alex Yemelin : locked in Russia and the Habs don't want to go the Malkin route, impressed many scouts over there with his physical play (I appeal to the Grigorenko exception).
1/5 - Carey Price : already almost established as our #1 goaltender.
2/45 - Guillaume Latendresse : became a NHL regular at 19, untapped power forward potential.
2006, 2007 and 2008 are too early to tell though Mathieu Carle (2006/2/53) already played one year in the AHL and should be joined by Ben Maxwell (2006/2/49) and Ryan White (2006/3/66) this upcoming season. David Fischer (2006/1/20) looks like the one with the longer path to the NHL though we knew it from Day 1. 2007 draftees all had a good 2007-2008 season and seem to be on the right track.
For 2001-2005, we have 10 NHL regulars out of 14 draftees in the first 3 rounds. That's 71%.
It climbs to 77% if you take Yemelin out of the equation. And all these players (but Perezhogin) will start the season in Montréal this fall !
Really, you can't deny that Savard & Timmins' success isn't on par with the Red Wings'. Though we obviously had higher picks in that time span.
Here's something else to consider. It's been mentioned that Detroit's average draft position was lower than Montreal's, but just how big of a difference was there?
Avg. DET Draft Position: 156.1 (5th pick in the 6th round) Avg. MTL Draft Position: 130.6 (9th pick in the 5th round)
So on average Montreal's players have been selected almost one round earlier than Detroit's. During the 1998-2007 time frame you listed, the lowest draft pick Detroit had was 19th overall. Montreal has had 9 players picked lower than that during that timespan, including 3 picks in the top 10. Detroit has drafted only 3 players in the first 30 picks (1st round) compared to 12 for Montreal. I think there is no debate that the average quality of player Montreal has had access to when drafting is far superior than the quality of player Detroit has access to.
That's true, though you have to take into account, their margin of success with late picks and Montreal is pretty close to Detroit.
I challenge you to find a team with a better draft record in the early rounds than Detroit. Players in the top 3 rounds are generally considered to be good bets to make the NHL and the rest are all longshots or projects. Here's Detroit's track record on picks in the top 90 (Rounds 1-3) during the time frame you mentioned (good picks in RED):
1998 Draft 1/30: D Jiri Fischer (retired early with a heart condition) 2/55: LW Ryan Barnes (2 NHL games) 2/56: LW Tomek Valtonen 3/84: G Jake McCracken
No picks in the top 90. First pick wasn't until the 4th round, 120th overall
2000 Draft 1/29: D Niklas Kronwall (top pair defenseman) 2/38: RW Tomas Kopecky (solid bottom 6 forward who can't stay healthy)
2001 Draft 2/62: RW Igor Grigorenko (called the best player not in the NHL prior to a near-fatal car accident that almost cost him his leg and required multiple surgical procedures to repair. It's a minor miracle that he's even able to play at all still)
2002 Draft 2/58: C Jiri Hudler (top 6 forward trapped on the 4th line in Detroit) 2/63: RW Tomas Fleischmann (traded to Washington where he's a regular) 3/95: C Valtteri Filppula (2nd line center)
2003 Draft 2/64: G Jimmy Howard (will compete for a backup job in Detroit but likely won't be on the team until next season, too early to call him a good/bad pick)
2004 Draft 3/97: C Johan Franzen (top 6 forward good for 20 goals minimum and may be poised for a breakout season).
2005 Draft 1/19: D Jakub Kindl (too early to evaluate) 2/42: LW Justin Abdelkader (played 2 games in Detroit last season; too early to evaluate) 3/80: C Christofer Lofberg (not offered a contract; family issues derailed his development)
2006 Draft 2/42: C Cory Emmerton (bout of mono cost him a WJC roster spot; too early to evaluate) 2/47: C Shawn Matthias (appears to be an impact player; too early to evaluate) 2/62: LW Dick Axelsson (already signed a contract; too early to evaulate) 3/92: G Daniel Larsson (won the SEL version of the Vezina last season; too early to evaulate)
2007 Draft 1/27: D Brendan Smith (injury-plagued freshman season at Wisconsin; too early to evaluate) 3/88: C Joakim Andersson (too early to evaluate)
So discounting players from 2005 and onward since it's too soon to evaluate them as good picks or busts, the Wings have taken 12 players in the first 90 picks (rounds 1-3) from 1998-2004 and of them the only "busts" were Ryan Barnes (1997), Tomek Valtonen (1997), Jake McCracken (1997), Igor Grigorenko (2001), and Jimmy Howard (2003). Now I'd contend that you can't call Jimmy Howard a "bust" yet mainly because of Detroit's notoriously long development period for players so take him out of the equation. I'd also say it's unfair to label Grigorenko a "bust" since he viewed not only by the Wings but by the hockey world in general as a top line impact NHL player before nearly getting killed and losing his leg in the car accident. If you re-evaulate it based on that, the only "bust" picks Detroit has made in that time frame were in 1997. That means from 1997-2004 (discounting Howard and Grigorenko) the Wings have had a 70% success rate on drafting quality NHL players in the first 90 picks (rounds 1-3). Show me another team with a better track record than that, because there isn't one.
You could at least make the same exercise with the Habs for % rate. Also, you make up excuses for certain picks, you should actually count the entire number without relying on excuses. There are risks that pay off and you can't discount that every team could have the bad luck of a player being hit by a disease or accident. For example, Andrei Kostitsyn is epileptic, if he wouldn't have made the league because of this, I would still count him as he is a pîck and any pick is a risk. Success rate is counted by the number of picks who do make the league compared to the total number of picks. Also, most players from the 2005 draft are now playing in the NHL (those who could make it), we might not be able to say if the others are busts, but it can certainly show the success rate as it was already 3 years ago. You take out that year because it fits your purpose, I could say the same of 2004 as some Habs pick like Emelin from that draft are still not here and expected to come and it's only been 4 years since this draft, as most say it takes 5 years to fully analyse a draft. So Detroit's %rate in this matter is rather 7/15, 47%.
Now the Habs
1st - Eric Chouinard
2nd - Mike Ribeiro (Top 6 forward)
3rd - François Beauchemin (Top 4 dman)
2nd - Alexander Buturlin
2nd - Matt Carkner
1st - Ron Hainsey (Top 4 dman)
1st - Marcel Hossa
3rd - Jozef Balej
3rd - Tyler Hanchuck
1st - Mike Komisarek (Top 2 dman)
1st - Alexander Perezhogin (won't count him even if he played two seasons)
2nd - Duncan Milroy
3rd - Tomas Plekanec (Top 6 forward)
1st - Chris Higgins (Top 6 forward)
2nd - Tomas Linhart
1st - Andrei Kostitsyn (Top 6 forward)
2nd - Cory Urquhart
2nd - Maxim Lapierre (3rd line forward)
3rd - Ryan O'Byrne (Top 4/Top 6 Dman)
1st - Kyle Chipchura (played very well in his rookie season - 3rd & 4th line forward)
3rd - Alexei Yemelin
We can play the "include this, don't include that" game to modify the whole process, it's quite easy to do that. My personal opinion remains that the Habs are pretty close to Detroit when it comes to drafting, especially since 2001 if we include the late round picks.
Detroit has a lot of misses, but when they get it right, they usually hit the jackpot. Lots of high impact players as opposed to the standard cup of coffee players that might inflate the games played numbers for a lot of teams.
For my money though, Colorado is the best drafting team in the NHL, 1998-2008
What????? They had Lidstrom, Yzerman, Fedorov and those draft picks were made waaaaay before the present period (last ten years)... They also were able to trade picks for players and sign major UFAs...
You had to think real hard to come up with that one
70% of your successful picks came before the wings even had a pick those years. We are not comparing apples to apples here.
I was really hoping the Wings might luck out that year in a similar way -- though #19 is the best pick they've had in a LONG time.
So waste a first round pick on someone no other scouts in the league have even seen?
70%??? Did you take that number out of where the sun don't shine?
Between 1998 and 2005, AFTER Detroit could pick, the Habs picked Ribeiro, Beauchemin, Markov, Ryder, Plekanec, O'Byrne, Halak, Grabovski, Streit, Latendresse, (S) Kostitsyn
Those who were picked before Detroit had a pick were Hainsey, Komisarek, Perezhogin, Higgins, (A) Kostitsyn, Lapierre and Price.
7 out of 18 of our succesfull picks were picked before Detroit had a pick. This means 61% of our succesfull picks came after Detroit had a pick. Quite the opposite of what you tried to portray and let's not talk about Perezhogin who's considered a bust around these parts.. this would put our rate close to 70% of succesfull picks AFTER Detroit had a pick.
You're really good at inventing facts to support your feeble arguments.
If you can't be honest and want to invent statistics, do yourself a favor and go back to your board
Sure I think that Montreal has been drafting well in the last 7-8 years...but comparing Montreal to Detroit, saying how Montreal is a better drafting team...Lets wait until Montreal is a perennial contender for both the President's cup and the Stanley cup with minimal trades and free agent signings (relatively speaking) before we start comparing ourselves with Detroit.
I think Montreal is a good team, that they're a contender and have the potential to reach Detroit's level in the near future. But right now we're not there, and its not 4-5 good years of drafting that's going to prove that. Because even if we compare from 1998-now we're still forgetting that that Detroit has been competitive since before then. If we were to extend that timeline a bit, Detroit's dominace in the draft would come out much more clearly.