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OT - Detroit drafting well a myth ??

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Old
07-11-2008, 02:01 AM
  #101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Helm1Crosby0 View Post
I'm an Oilers fan.
But you love a career potential 3rd liner on Detroit? Hoping they acquire him?

And Korneev is WAY overrated here and by the Russian team:S

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07-11-2008, 10:42 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by RabbinsDuck View Post
I was doing a direct comparison to post #52 (from a Canadiens' fan), which started with 2001. Calm down
And I was answering FissionFire, who was challenging us to find a drafting rate success of more than 70% for the first 3 rounds.

It happens André Savard, Trevor Timmins and the Habs drafting staff have had such success since they've had the job here.

And I'm very glad that the team I'm a fan of is going in the right direction, having now the same success at the draft table than the most successful NHL franchise in the past 15 years. And I hope we'll get in the future the same dividends you enjoyed : Stanley Cups !

It's in no way a pissing match. I think highly of the Detroit Red Wings organization and I'm really happy the Habs can be now compared to the Wings on the 1st step towards greatness : drafting success.

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07-11-2008, 10:48 AM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
But you love a career potential 3rd liner on Detroit? Hoping they acquire him?

And Korneev is WAY overrated here and by the Russian team:S
Yes.

I know Helm from before he played in the NHL. And I see him as more than a replacement for Draper. He has better hands, better wheels and is bigger. *cough* Not really, but his stats say he is.

He'll be good for probably 25ish goals per year and about 40+ helpers.

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07-11-2008, 10:48 AM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Bob Probert Owns You View Post
For now . . .
Quiet you.

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07-11-2008, 10:57 AM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Montreal and Detroit are without a doubt top 5 for the last decade (1998-2007)
Really, we should start in 2001, when Savard took over the drafting process (and Gillett bought the team)

1998 really looks like pure luck when you look at the whole Houle era picture (also known as "Molson doesn't want to lose money with this hockey team anymore" era). Though there's still Eric Chouinard to remind you.

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07-11-2008, 12:04 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by StanAjax View Post
Really, we should start in 2001, when Savard took over the drafting process (and Gillett bought the team)

1998 really looks like pure luck when you look at the whole Houle era picture (also known as "Molson doesn't want to lose money with this hockey team anymore" era). Though there's still Eric Chouinard to remind you.
Yeah, but as I've said before, imagine that draft if would'Ve picked Gagné instead... this would be one of the most succesfull draft by a single team in the history of the NHL... Gagné, Beauchemin Ribeiro, Markov, Ryder. I may be exagerating, but it would be for sure in the top 10 of NHL history.

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07-11-2008, 01:13 PM
  #107
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Let's look at our championship lineup

Datsuk Zetterberg Holmstrom Franzen Filppula Hudler Helm McCarty Samuelsson Maltby Draper Cleary

Lidstrom Kronwall Lebda Rafalski Stuart Lilja

Osgood Hasek

The Reds are Wings draft pick players. and except Rafalski and Stuart you can argue that rest were the players nobody wanted at the time of acquisition.

I'm not here to gloat or whatever, but IF it comes down to Habs' vs Wings' draft effectiveness for this season, I don't think there should be any further arguments. Though Habs are doing quite well lately.

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07-11-2008, 07:50 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Helm1Crosby0 View Post
Yes.

I know Helm from before he played in the NHL. And I see him as more than a replacement for Draper. He has better hands, better wheels and is bigger. *cough* Not really, but his stats say he is.

He'll be good for probably 25ish goals per year and about 40+ helpers.
Kris draper put up 24 goals.... once and he hit 40 points... once

Helm appears to be a player who can score and make a decent pass, so he'd probably do something like 10g, 10a-15g, 15a, with a career year at like 20ishg, 20ish a.

For him to score 25+ goals per year is pretty strong statement.

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07-11-2008, 10:09 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by keyven View Post
I did that for fun while I was surfing on hockeydb.com. I count out how many players, pts and games played that was recorded from Detroit and Montreal drafted players between 1998 and 2007.

Here's my result :

Detroit

82 drafted players
2243 games played
1172 pts
0,52 pts/game

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00005492.html

Montreal

88 drafted players
3671 games played
2139 pts
0,58 pts/game

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00006929.html

I know we didn't draft players like Datsyuk and Zetterberg but could we just stop saying that Detroit is good at the draft table ?

Argue !
What's the one equation you've somehow managed to miss here?

Uh, could it possibly be average draft position?

Do you think that might be a factor in this equation?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
That's pretty close in overall quality and quantity.

Can't wait to see what the comparison will look like in 5 years though.
Actually it's not.

If you think those two lists are "similar in quality" you're having great difficult seeing past your bias, because the Detroit group of players is unquestionably better then the Montreal group.

Datsyuk and Zetterberg are NHL superstars. Nobody on the Montreal list approaches that level. The best guy out of the Montreal group is Markov, beyond that, you're looking at a couple of good guys in Plekanec and Ribero, and some sold support players.

The rest of Detroit's list is all good guys.


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Old
07-11-2008, 10:16 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
Kris draper put up 24 goals.... once and he hit 40 points... once

Helm appears to be a player who can score and make a decent pass, so he'd probably do something like 10g, 10a-15g, 15a, with a career year at like 20ishg, 20ish a.

For him to score 25+ goals per year is pretty strong statement.
Yeah, but you're basing this on him playing in the NHL playoffs. His first year in the Dub he hit 24 points.

His second year he hit 80.

Helm needs to put on weight and he will be a force. I have no problem saying that Helm will score 20-30 goals. I can see him centering the 2nd line eventually. He has great hands and good vision.

He's going to prove a lot of people wrong, considering 4 years ago he was playing Jr B.

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07-12-2008, 12:27 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Helm1Crosby0 View Post
Yeah, but you're basing this on him playing in the NHL playoffs. His first year in the Dub he hit 24 points.

His second year he hit 80.

Helm needs to put on weight and he will be a force. I have no problem saying that Helm will score 20-30 goals. I can see him centering the 2nd line eventually. He has great hands and good vision.

He's going to prove a lot of people wrong, considering 4 years ago he was playing Jr B.
Based on playoffs, he's a determined kid who sticks to the game plan and isn't a concern on the ice for his team. ( as in making a mistake if I complicated things, I am tired and mess up my sentences) He chips in offensively, while playing good defensively. Maybe, in the East on a team more offensive minded (even though Detroit is consistently at the top for goals for) He'd have a better chance to reach his numbers, but as of right now, he won't ever get on the 2nd line in Detroit. The number jump in the dub is impressive, though.

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07-12-2008, 12:51 AM
  #112
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What does pts. per game prove? I think when people say they draft well it means that they are getting good deals out their oicks considering where they have been drafted. A team like montreal should have better drafts than detroit considering that the wings are usually select at the bottom of the rounds. Wings didn't have first a rounder in 97, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 99, 1st in 02, 1st in 03, 1st and 2nd in 04, 1st in 06, and 2nd in 07. So considering that in the last 10 or so years the wings have only had a first rounder about half the time, and the canadiens have had top 15 picks some years, I'd hope they do better. The fact that detroit makes the best of their few and low picks, makes them one of the best teams at drafting.

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07-12-2008, 12:51 AM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
Based on playoffs, he's a determined kid who sticks to the game plan and isn't a concern on the ice for his team. ( as in making a mistake if I complicated things, I am tired and mess up my sentences) He chips in offensively, while playing good defensively. Maybe, in the East on a team more offensive minded (even though Detroit is consistently at the top for goals for) He'd have a better chance to reach his numbers, but as of right now, he won't ever get on the 2nd line in Detroit. The number jump in the dub is impressive, though.
He is also 21.

Even if he plays 3rd line, it will be because of hte numbers problem, not because of lack of skill.

He's faster than Draper.
Has better hands than Draper.
Has better anticipation than Draper.
Has better moves than Draper.
He's learning to be a better FO man, he's learning his role on the team from Draper.

But I still say, he will be better than Draper ever was.

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07-12-2008, 12:55 AM
  #114
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If the notion that the Red Wings draft well is a myth, they must be something great that all the other teams aren't doing. They've enjoyed quite a decade these past 10 years.

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07-12-2008, 01:11 AM
  #115
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Anybody post this quote from Ken Holland via The Hockey News?

"We obviously got lucky with Datsyuk and Zetterberg, They are superstars."

Regardless of luck, saying that Detriot drafting well is a myth is stupid... look at the amount of quality players they have picked (especially in the later rounds) in drafts. Its completely superior to the majority of the other teams in the league.

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07-12-2008, 01:17 AM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by keyven View Post
I did that for fun while I was surfing on hockeydb.com. I count out how many players, pts and games played that was recorded from Detroit and Montreal drafted players between 1998 and 2007.

Here's my result :

Detroit

82 drafted players
2243 games played
1172 pts
0,52 pts/game

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00005492.html

Montreal

88 drafted players
3671 games played
2139 pts
0,58 pts/game

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00006929.html

I know we didn't draft players like Datsyuk and Zetterberg but could we just stop saying that Detroit is good at the draft table ?

Argue !
Maybe both are good?

Ottawa is at 4368 GP and 1857 in that period BTW. Maybe multiple teams are good at drafting? And Ottawa and Montreal terrible at attracting free agents. Especially Ottawa who at the end of the season only had 3 players on the roster not brought in through trade or draft, Robitaille, Richardson and Gerber.

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07-12-2008, 01:47 AM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Guillemin View Post
Though they get crapped on a lot, look at the recent drafting history of the Leafs as well. When they keep their picks, they have a shocking record of first round success.

As for the Wings, I don't believe it's luck. You draft guys like Zets and Datsyuk late because they're potential home runs, but not as sure things as earlier rounds. Also, if you know you're the only team that recognizes their potential, then you can take them late with comfort.
Zetterberg was selected 210th overall. If Detroit actually believed he was a potential home run, surely they wouldn't have allowed other teams to get a chance at him 209 times.

Letting a guy slip to the second round, sure. But 210th? Come on.

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07-12-2008, 01:48 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by FerrisRox View Post
Actually it's not.

If you think those two lists are "similar in quality" you're having great difficult seeing past your bias, because the Detroit group of players is unquestionably better then the Montreal group.

Datsyuk and Zetterberg are NHL superstars. Nobody on the Montreal list approaches that level. The best guy out of the Montreal group is Markov, beyond that, you're looking at a couple of good guys in Plekanec and Ribero, and some sold support players.

The rest of Detroit's list is all good guys.
I think you have a great difficulty understanding what "close to in overall quality and quantity" implies. It doesn't imply that they are "similar in exact quality" nor in exact quantity, it rather implies that if you would calculate (if possible) an overall for each player and add them up altogether, the O-V-E-R-A-L-L would be close. The word overall is the key word here, as this adjective implies that the mix of quality AND quantity is close. Not that the quality is the same. Maybe you have great difficulty with critical text analysis or maybe I should've added the word 'ratio' although it seemed quite evident that it was implied. Also, notice the fact I said "close" not "similar", as similar implies that they are about the same. Close implies that the distance or difference is not far but that there is a difference. Nice try twisting my words, changing the implication of what I've said.

First off, if you don't consider Markov a superstar in this league (he wasn't chosen on the first all-star team for nothing right?), we should end this discussion right away and you should stop questioning my supposed bias.

Now, are you able to understand that NONE on Detroit's list OTHER THAN Zetterberg and Datsyuk are even close to what Markov, Ribeiro, Ryder and Plekanec are. Even Streit stands out from the others on the Detroit list. You could compare the others to what Latendresse and Kostitsyn are at the moment (and even Kostitsyn should be considered better than the other 5 in the list, but what you actually state in your comment is totally the opposite).

Also, I don't know if you realize but Ribeiro finished 13th overall for most points in the entire league this year, just 9 points less than Zets and 13 points less than Datsyuk. He should also be considered a NHL superstar/elite player, granted he doesn't play with Detroit, one of the best coaching system in the league, with THE best defenseman in the entire league, so no point of arguing about the team's achievments that are recorded individualy for the two Detroit players.

As for Plekanec he finished 41st pointer of the entire league, that makes him an obvious star in this league. Luckily for you, we aren't 2-3 years into the future as I'm convinced Pleks will still improve, as Datsyuk and Zetterberg also did with time, as I hope you also realize that both of them didn't dominate from the get-go as they do now. Also in the sake of talking about future progression, S Kostitsyn (0.52ppg) has shown as much as both Detroit players (HZ 0.56 ppg PD 0.50 ppg) did in their rookie seasons and also SKost did it at a younger age, but I will still leave him out and not consider him as only the future will tell of his progression, but it is safe to say he can easily be compared to Franzen in terms of production (at a much younger age as Franzen didn't show as much in his rookie season and came into the league in his mid-twenties) and should be (Skost) considered as higher stock than that Detroit player.

Maybe a quick rundown will make you better understand what I mean by overall quality and quantity. We will give the players an overall that should be relatively close to what they are. Now I will base this on what the players have accomplised, their talent, and the age they made their accomplishments (if close) to the others. I will try to this similarly to what hockey games do with the overalls (from 0 to 100). Keep in mind that this is based on my personal opinion and that I try to be partial as much as one can be, so don't come crying bias like someone who lacks substance to create an argument, because if you would've done this same process by yourself, the results would be close, unless you have a marked bias (as I presume, because you've completely ignored the difference between Ribeiro, Plekanec, Streit and Ryder compared to the rest of the Detroit bunch outside of Zets and Dats, and the difference in accomplishment and talent is very notable).

Datsyuk 97
Zetterberg 97
Markov 92
Ribeiro 90
Plekanec 85
Streit 80
Kostitsyn 78
Ryder 75 (note that Ryder has accomplished much more personaly than Franzen at a much younger age, and more than Hudler at this point)
Hudler 75
Franzen 74
Filppula 70
Latendresse 68
Fleischmann 65
Kopecky 65
Halak 60 (even tho he shows great potential)

So we have an overall average of 78,5 for the Habs and an average of 77,6 for Detroit.

Note that I don't think this makes it better for Montreal, because Detroit does have Zetterberg and Datsyuk, but to say that the ""Detroit group of players is unquestionably better then the Montreal group"" is pure non-sense and shows your own bias, as your assertion implies that the likes of Ribeiro, Markov, Plekanec, Streit, Kostitsyn and even Ryder don't have an impact on their own team and relegate them to the same level as the lesser players in Detroit's group, which in fact is complete lunacy as they've accomplished much much more than the Franzen, Hudler, Filppula, Kopecky and Fleishmman.

I can actually state this as certainty, that you made this biased, ridiculous assertion, when you said and I quote :

Quote:
""The best guy out of the Montreal group is Markov, beyond that, you're looking at a couple of good guys in Plekanec and Ribero""
Quote:
""and some sold support players."
Which would imply that this includes Ryder, Kostitsyn, Streit, Latendresse and Halak.

And you went on and said :

Quote:
""The rest of Detroit's list is all good guys""
meaning outside of Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

So from this, we should correctly understand that (the first line I actually agree on) :

Zetterberg Datsyuk > Markov >

The previous are better than the next (as the next are "good guys") :

Plekanec Ribeiro = Franzen, Hudler, Filppula, Kopecky and Fleishmman

The previous are better than (as the next are "sold support players" :

Ryder, Kostitsyn, Streit, Latendresse and Halak

This is absolutely ridiculous and screams of bias. Maybe you are just piss poor at analysis, but please next time don't say I have "great difficult seeing past my bias".

You are truly unable to differentiate degrees of talent and accomplishment, ergo unable to fully formulate a comparison between the two groups.

An actual assesment with one's head not up his arse would give this :

Top 1% of the league :
Zetterberg and Datsyuk
Top 2-3% of the league :
Ribeiro and Markov
Top 6-7% of the league :
Plekanec
Top 10-15% of the league :
Streit
Top 15-20% of the league :
Kostitsyn, Hudler
Top 20-25% of the league :
Ryder, Franzen, Filppula
Top 25-50% of the league :
Latendresse, Fleishmman, Kopecky, Halak

Montreal as many more above-average players in their group, while Detroit, aside from the 2 top 1%, have players that are in the average of the league in this present group.

That's why I say the OVERALL quality and quantity is close.

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07-12-2008, 01:59 AM
  #119
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thats just stupid. Why would Detroit want to draft unranked or 200 something ranked players in the first round and WASTE the pick when they can get them in the later rounds?
Oh, I don't know... maybe because he's become a superstar franchise player and it's idiotic to risk losing out on him 209 times. If they thought the guy was any good, they would have drafted him in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th rounds.

Detroit's scouts saw all this "upside" and yet they didn't even bother taking him as their 6th round pick? You're lucky if you can get somebody who knows how to tie their own skates in the 6th round.

A total fluke pick.

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07-12-2008, 03:00 AM
  #120
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Originally Posted by LeafRefereeeeeees View Post
Would like to see the split analysis because I consider 97, 98 and 01 as bought Cups in an uneven NHL
Then, your consideration is worthless.

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07-12-2008, 07:41 AM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Guillemin View Post
Though they get crapped on a lot, look at the recent drafting history of the Leafs as well. When they keep their picks, they have a shocking record of first round success.

As for the Wings, I don't believe it's luck. You draft guys like Zets and Datsyuk late because they're potential home runs, but not as sure things as earlier rounds. Also, if you know you're the only team that recognizes their potential, then you can take them late with comfort.
I agree. To use Valentenko as an example, supposedly the Russian scout was insisting that BG and TT to take him in the 2nd round. They knew he was going to be around much later. For all we know, Valentenko was ranked on their list where you would normally expect a 2nd round pick to go. It could easily have been the same with Datsyuk and Zetterberg, which would actually show great scouting and great draft management.

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07-12-2008, 10:37 AM
  #122
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
What????? They had Lidstrom, Yzerman, Fedorov and those draft picks were made waaaaay before the present period (last ten years)... They also were able to trade picks for players and sign major UFAs...

You had to think real hard to come up with that one
Regardless, these 3 players that you just mentioned there were the core of the team, and they were DRAFTED by the team, no bought cups imo.

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07-12-2008, 11:20 AM
  #123
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Regardless, these 3 players that you just mentioned there were the core of the team, and they were DRAFTED by the team, no bought cups imo.
But they were drafted way before the period this present thread is questioning.

I do agree that they didn't buy cups, but at this rate, we can't see the Habs future with good prospects they started drafting not long ago, it might end-up the same.

Also the Wings did trade a lot of picks to get players at the deadlines for their cup runs and they did acquire many UFAs. That is without a question. They haven't won their cups solely based on their drafting (especially the drafting of the last several years) that was my argument. Cup winners are built by doing great drafting, timely UFA signins and good trades, not drafting alone.

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07-12-2008, 11:43 AM
  #124
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
But they were drafted way before the period this present thread is questioning.

I do agree that they didn't buy cups, but at this rate, we can't see the Habs future with good prospects they started drafting not long ago, it might end-up the same.

Also the Wings did trade a lot of picks to get players at the deadlines for their cup runs and they did acquire many UFAs. That is without a question. They haven't won their cups solely based on their drafting (especially the drafting of the last several years) that was my argument. Cup winners are built by doing great drafting, timely UFA signins and good trades, not drafting alone.
Well there's no team out there that won cups on drafting alone, of course smart trades and ufa signings are involved.

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07-12-2008, 12:02 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Yeah, but as I've said before, imagine that draft if would'Ve picked Gagné instead... this would be one of the most succesfull draft by a single team in the history of the NHL... Gagné, Beauchemin Ribeiro, Markov, Ryder. I may be exagerating, but it would be for sure in the top 10 of NHL history.
If quality (and reality) is the prime criterion, I would select 1971, when the Habs actually picked Lafleur and Robinson.

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