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Looking Ahead to the 2009-2010 Cap Situation

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07-13-2008, 12:40 PM
  #1
HABitual Fan
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Looking Ahead to the 2009-2010 Cap Situation

I was glancing at the cap situation for the Habs and all the other teams for 2009-2010 and it is clear that Gainey has made the right moves for the club both currently, and heading forward, unlike many other GM's in the league. The situation for Montreal is 9 players signed for a cap hit of about 21.6M

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=MON

There are 4 UFA's who are key players Koivu, Kovalev, Komisarek,and Tanguay

There are 4 UFA's who are replaceable at a cheaper price in Dandenault,Begin,Kostopoulos, and Bouillon

There are 2 RFA's who are arbitration eligible in Higgins and Plekanec

There are 2 RFA's G Latendresse and Chipchura

The signed players are Laraque, A Kostitsyn, S Kostitsyn, Lapierre, Markov, Hamrlik, Gorges, Price and Halak

With both of the attractive RFA's being arbitration eligible, the club need not worry about an offer sheet for them, if a new deal has not been agreed upon before July 1, the club announces they are taking them to arbitration, and then it is only a question of reaching a deal or carrying out with the arbitration. Needing to match an inflated offer sheet is not a part of the equation.

Of the players under contract for this year the only one who cannot be moved is Koivu, the others Gainey did a good job of allowing him options if things didn't work out or a great deal comes along.

Roman Hamrlik, MTL - NTC [full NTC until 2/1/09; partial NTC from 2/1/09 to 2/1/11; no NTC from 2/1/11 after]
Alexei Kovalev, MTL - NTC [can't be traded to any Western Conference team prior to 1/31/09 without his consent]
Saku Koivu, MTL - NTC
Georges Laraque, MTL - NTC [limited; details pending]
Andrei Markov, MTL - NTC [limited; can only be traded to pre-specified teams]

All in all even if the cap doesn't go up for the 2009-10 season, Gainey should have about 35M available to sign the RFA's and sign or replace the 4 key UFA's and find replacements for the 4 UFA's he doesn't sign to new contracts.

A quick look at some teams that could be in serious trouble down the road

Anaheim has 8 players(including 2 goalies) signed for a total of 31.8M, all the rest will be UFA's.
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=ANA

Calgary has 42.2M commited to 14 players with 7 UFA's and 2 RFA's
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=CGY

Colorado has 33.4M commited so far to 9 players with 4 UFA's and 2 RFA's including Stasny, this with only 16 players under contract for this year and Svatos going to arbitration so their number still could climb even higher.
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=COL

New Jersey with 42.5M commited to 15 players with Gionta and Madden as UFA's and Zajak as an arbitration eligible RFA
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=NJ

New York Rangers have 40.1M commited for 9 players, 7 UFA's, 4 arbitration eligible RFA's, and 2 RFA's
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=NYR

Ottawa have so far 42.3M commited to 16 players with Vermette going to arbitration and Mezeros still unsigned so the number will rise some more. As well they have only Auld signed as a goalie.
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=OTT

Philadelphia have 40M commited to 12 players with 6 UFA's and 3 arbitration eligible RFA;s in Lupul, Emminger and Upshall. As well they have no goalies signed.
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=PHI

Pittsburgh have 41.3M commited to 11 players with 7 UFA's, Maxime Talbot as an arbitration eligible RFA and Jordan Staal as a RFA
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=PIT

San Jose have 41.2M commited to 11 players with Vlasic as an RFA
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=SJ

Toronto have 43.3M commited to 16 players with Antropov as a UFA and Grabovski as an arbitration eligible RFA
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=TOR

Vancouver have 26M commited to 9 players with 8 UFA's including both Sedins, Burrows and Ohland
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=VAN

What is interesting is that most of the teams facing cap problems are the ones who have GM's generally hyped as the better ones in the league, and in many cases the players under contract are the bit players or FA's signed at inflated prices not the key players for the team. The teams in the best situation are those developing talent from within, who are capable of saying no to overpaying FA's including their own because they have the means to replace them at a lower price. Montreal would be in a no better situation then the teams above if Gainey were forced to retain players like Streit, Huet/Theodore, Ryder, Rivet, Souray for the same contracts they have received elsewhere. The group of defensemen in the pipeline will eventually free him from paying the inflated price even mediocre defensemen are getting on the open market. He is still behind in centers/forwards in the pipeline but hopefully guys like MaxPac, Maxwell and White will be the next wave. The good news is comparitively speaking decent stop gap forwards are signing for reasonable short-term contracts as opposed to the defensemen, so worst case scenario he can go that route.


Last edited by HABitual Fan: 07-16-2008 at 05:56 AM.
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07-13-2008, 02:41 PM
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Good post.

I agree, the Habs are in a pretty good position. Very well managed team....good drafting has obviously helped too.

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07-13-2008, 03:06 PM
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I dont know if we are in taht good shape as you say, for instance, the 4 ufas will comand 5 mill average each, so that 20 mil, plus lets say 4 mil each for our rfa, thats a total of 28 mil plus the 22, that already 50, so 15 players signed, 8 more to go with about 8 mil, i guess its doable, but not in the best shape imaginable

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07-13-2008, 03:14 PM
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I thought I'd take a crack at predicting our 2009-2010 lineup as it relates to the salary cap, assuming no Sundin and no trades or free agent signings for that season. Obviously it's very rough and a guestimate, intended just to give a rough idea of where we might stand: and is not a prediction of the actual lines.

Tanguay (5.5) Koivu (5.0) Kovalev (5.5)
Higgins (3.7) Pleks (4.2) S. Kost (.6)
MaxPac (.9) Maxwell (.6) A. Kost (3.3)
Latendresse (1.6) Chips (1.0) Laraque (1.5)
Dagostini (.5) Lapierre (.8)

Marcov (5.8) Komi (4.2)
Hamrlik (5.5) O'Byrne (.6)
Valetenko (.5) Gorges (1.1)
Carle (.5)

Price (2.2)
Halak (.8)

Total Cap Hit = 55.9 million

So we could be under the cap even if there is no increase in the cap for 2009-2010.

With Sundin (assuming he signed on for 2 years at 7.5/year), if we remove Maxwell and insert Sundin, we'd be around 63 million - and would likely need to say goodbye to one of Higgins, Tanguay, Koivu, Kovalev, Pleks or Komi.

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07-13-2008, 03:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigM View Post
I thought I'd take a crack at predicting our 2009-2010 lineup as it relates to the salary cap, assuming no Sundin and no trades or free agent signings for that season. Obviously it's very rough and a guestimate, intended just to give a rough idea of where we might stand: and is not a prediction of the actual lines.

Tanguay (5.5) Koivu (5.0) Kovalev (5.5)
Higgins (3.7) Pleks (4.2) S. Kost (.6)
MaxPac (.9) Maxwell (.6) A. Kost (3.3)
Latendresse (1.6) Chips (1.0) Laraque (1.5)
Dagostini (.5) Lapierre (.8)

Marcov (5.8) Komi (4.2)
Hamrlik (5.5) O'Byrne (.6)
Valetenko (.5) Gorges (1.1)
Carle (.5)

Price (2.2)
Halak (.8)

Total Cap Hit = 55.9 million

So we could be under the cap even if there is no increase in the cap for 2009-2010.

With Sundin (assuming he signed on for 2 years at 7.5/year), if we remove Maxwell and insert Sundin, we'd be around 63 million - and would likely need to say goodbye to one of Higgins, Tanguay, Koivu, Kovalev, Pleks or Komi.
I see Koivu and Kovy taking paycuts to stay here, which will help us alot.

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07-13-2008, 03:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigM View Post
I thought I'd take a crack at predicting our 2009-2010 lineup as it relates to the salary cap, assuming no Sundin and no trades or free agent signings for that season. Obviously it's very rough and a guestimate, intended just to give a rough idea of where we might stand: and is not a prediction of the actual lines.

Tanguay (5.5) Koivu (5.0) Kovalev (5.5)
Higgins (3.7) Pleks (4.2) S. Kost (.6)
MaxPac (.9) Maxwell (.6) A. Kost (3.3)
Latendresse (1.6) Chips (1.0) Laraque (1.5)
Dagostini (.5) Lapierre (.8)

Marcov (5.8) Komi (4.2)
Hamrlik (5.5) O'Byrne (.6)
Valetenko (.5) Gorges (1.1)
Carle (.5)

Price (2.2)
Halak (.8)

Total Cap Hit = 55.9 million

So we could be under the cap even if there is no increase in the cap for 2009-2010.

With Sundin (assuming he signed on for 2 years at 7.5/year), if we remove Maxwell and insert Sundin, we'd be around 63 million - and would likely need to say goodbye to one of Higgins, Tanguay, Koivu, Kovalev, Pleks or Komi.
Done.

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07-13-2008, 03:53 PM
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As of right now:

2009-10 Habs - cap hit guess
Price - 2,200,000.00
Halak - 775,000.00
Markov - 5,750,000.00
Hamrlik - 5,500,000.00
Komisarek - 5,000,000.00
Gorges - 1,100,000.00
O'Byrne - 700,000.00
Valentenko - 850,000.00
7th D - 500,000.00
Plekanec - 4,500,000.00
Koivu - 5,000,000.00
Chipchura - 1,000,000.00
Lapierre - 687,500.00
A. Kostitsyn - 3,250,000.00
Tanguay - 5,500,000.00
Higgins - 3,500,000.00
Latendresse - 1,250,000.00
Kovalev - 5,000,000.00
S. Kostitsyn - 816,667.00
D'Agostini - 600,000.00 (waiver eligible)
Stewart - 500,000.00
Laraque - 1,500,000.00

Total = 55,479,167.00 for 22 players - in other words, 1.21 M UNDER the current cap.

Blue = RFA's. Red = UFA's.

Note: I put some of those FA contracts in the high range of what they could get just to be safe.

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07-13-2008, 04:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
As of right now:

2009-10 Habs - cap hit guess
Price - 2,200,000.00
Halak - 775,000.00
Markov - 5,750,000.00
Hamrlik - 5,500,000.00
Komisarek - 5,000,000.00
Gorges - 1,100,000.00
O'Byrne - 700,000.00
Valentenko - 850,000.00
7th D - 500,000.00
Plekanec - 4,500,000.00
Koivu - 5,000,000.00
Chipchura - 1,000,000.00
Lapierre - 687,500.00
A. Kostitsyn - 3,250,000.00
Tanguay - 5,500,000.00
Higgins - 3,500,000.00
Latendresse - 1,250,000.00
Kovalev - 5,000,000.00
S. Kostitsyn - 816,667.00
D'Agostini - 600,000.00 (waiver eligible)
Stewart - 500,000.00
Laraque - 1,500,000.00

Total = 55,479,167.00 for 22 players - in other words, 1.21 M UNDER the current cap.

Blue = RFA's. Red = UFA's.

Note: I put some of those FA contracts in the high range of what they could get just to be safe.

We are pretty close in our estimates...I included Maxwell (figured we need a center) and MaxPac, but not Stewart.

The bottom line is that, at least if Sundin isn't here, we are in a pretty nice cap position for 2009-2010.

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07-13-2008, 04:08 PM
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assuming gainey can sign everyone - and they want to stay here. is he able to begin negotiating with komo and kovy etc on extensions right now?

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07-13-2008, 04:36 PM
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i'd give tanguay 6 million if he topples 75 points, kovalev 6.5 million if he gets between 75-90. Koivu should get 4.5-5 million, as he'll get his 60-70 points. Komi i hope we can resign for 4.5 million or less...
Can't be making Markov money, yet.

As for the RFA's, i'd give them Kostitsyn cash for 3 years. Then again it all depends on how well they perform this year, they could get Carter money if they go to arbitration if they have successful seasons.

We're in a good situation imo because losing Begin's (1.3 million), Dandenaults (1.725 million)and Bouillon's (1.875) contracts will save us 4.9 million in cap space.

If we give the aforementioned raises to our quality UFA's Kovalev (1.5 million), Tanguay (0.125 million), Koivu (0-0.5million) and Komisarek (2.8 million)...we'll only have to spend 4.5 million to 5 million. Which could just be used from the cap relief of the 3 other UFA's that we don't want to resign.

That leaves us with the raises for Higgins and Plekanec, which should be around 2-2.5 million each (4-5 million). And based on our current cap space now (7.5 million), we'll have enough room to sign them without any problems especially with the cap on a continuous rise.


Last edited by 24morecupsthanyou*: 07-13-2008 at 04:48 PM.
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07-13-2008, 04:55 PM
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Originally Posted by emb24 View Post
assuming gainey can sign everyone - and they want to stay here. is he able to begin negotiating with komo and kovy etc on extensions right now?
He can negotiate extensions whenever he wants, Lecavalier just got a hefty one. I'm sure you read the thread about Kovy wanting a 3 year extension prior to camp, if that's the case i'd make Kovy sign for a 3 year 15 million dollar contract NOW. That way he can't demand a premium when he has another crazy year (which i'm sure he will, he looks super determined nowadays). This will be a mere 500k raise to the cap hit next year in contrast to this year, which would be nice!

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07-13-2008, 06:08 PM
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I'm one of Koivu's biggest fans, but how exactly is he getting a raise? If anything he's been slightly overpaid.

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07-13-2008, 06:15 PM
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if they sign Sundin this year, I hope they drop Kovalev and Tanguay next year. Only sign Koivu for his leadership and Komisarek so he can mentor the young defensemen.

Give the opportunity for the Maxpacs and Maxwells to develop and within a couple of years, we can stack up again on free agents and make a run at the cup.

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07-13-2008, 06:19 PM
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It's likely that Tanguay will not be re-signed after this year. He looks like the kind of guy who'll have an amazing year and then sign with someone else for the highest bidder. Don't be surprised if he leaves and solves our cap problem for us.

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07-13-2008, 07:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Go Habs Go View Post
if they sign Sundin this year, I hope they drop Kovalev and Tanguay next year. Only sign Koivu for his leadership and Komisarek so he can mentor the young defensemen.

Give the opportunity for the Maxpacs and Maxwells to develop and within a couple of years, we can stack up again on free agents and make a run at the cup.
I think your idea of winning is flawed. By losing those 2, we potentially lose lets say 60 goals, and replace it with rookies that will total 30 on a good rookie campaign. You don't win with your logic

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07-13-2008, 07:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigM View Post
I thought I'd take a crack at predicting our 2009-2010 lineup as it relates to the salary cap, assuming no Sundin and no trades or free agent signings for that season. Obviously it's very rough and a guestimate, intended just to give a rough idea of where we might stand: and is not a prediction of the actual lines.

Tanguay (5.5) Koivu (5.0) Kovalev (5.5)
Higgins (3.7) Pleks (4.2) S. Kost (.6)
MaxPac (.9) Maxwell (.6) A. Kost (3.3)
Latendresse (1.6) Chips (1.0) Laraque (1.5)
Dagostini (.5) Lapierre (.8)

Marcov (5.8) Komi (4.2)
Hamrlik (5.5) O'Byrne (.6)
Valetenko (.5) Gorges (1.1)
Carle (.5)

Price (2.2)
Halak (.8)

Total Cap Hit = 55.9 million

So we could be under the cap even if there is no increase in the cap for 2009-2010.

With Sundin (assuming he signed on for 2 years at 7.5/year), if we remove Maxwell and insert Sundin, we'd be around 63 million - and would likely need to say goodbye to one of Higgins, Tanguay, Koivu, Kovalev, Pleks or Komi.
Why does Komisarek, a UFA, sign for the same amount as Plekanec an RFA?

Komisarek at 4.2 would be a HUGE hometown discount. Look at the market right now for DMen, expect Komisarek to get between 5.5-7

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07-13-2008, 07:54 PM
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I like Marc's projection of having us 1.2 million under the current cap next summer. That seems reasonable but leaves us with little room to get other players if we consider the Halak/Price situation down the line, as they are both RFA in summer 2011.

We could need as much as 5 million in extra cap space to keep those two. If the cap goes up to 62-64 million we're okay, but if it hovers around 56-60, things may get tight.

Anyways, interesting stuff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bushfire View Post
Why does Komisarek, a UFA, sign for the same amount as Plekanec an RFA?

Komisarek at 4.2 would be a HUGE hometown discount. Look at the market right now for DMen, expect Komisarek to get between 5.5-7
This discussion has gone on hundreds of times, but I think the basic argument for projecting lower numbers on Komisarek is that defensive dman rarely get huge UFA contracts. 5.5+ million for a primarily defensive defeceman who has yet to crack 20 points is unheard of, no matter how much he hits.

Comparable contracts will be Regehr, Phillips, Volchenkov etc...not Chara and Phaneuf. Right now the highest paid defensive dman are Hannan and McKee at 4.5. The market may dictate a 5.0+ contract, but I can't see it going too much higher than that. (Though the Commodore contract scares me. If he plays like he did 06-07, it's reasonable, but if he plays like he did in 07-08, especially in Ottawa, that is a crazy deal.)

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07-13-2008, 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Habitant#1 View Post
I'm one of Koivu's biggest fans, but how exactly is he getting a raise? If anything he's been slightly overpaid.
Koivu could easly get 5 M on the market after what happened on July 1. There will always be some teams willing to overpay for a quality center.

If he wants to take less than 5 M, then that's a good thing for us.

It's true that summer 2010 is kind of worrisome with Price, S.Kostitsyn and Halak being RFA's and no significant expiring contracts to create significant cap room to re-sign them. Albeit, the cap could be 65 M by then for all we know. Maybe we can convince Price and Kostitsyn to take 1 year deals at a decent price (like the Rangers did with Lundqvist this past summer with the understanding a wealthy extension was coming in January) and give them their big multi year deals the following summer when we get cap relief from the end of the Hamrlik and Markov deals. Halak could also be dealt by then.

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07-13-2008, 08:26 PM
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I see Koivu and Kovy taking paycuts to stay here, which will help us alot.
I agree with you.

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07-13-2008, 08:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Koivu could easly get 5 M on the market after what happened on July 1. There will always be some teams willing to overpay for a quality center.

If he wants to take less than 5 M, then that's a good thing for us.

It's true that summer 2010 is kind of worrisome with Price, S.Kostitsyn and Halak being RFA's and no significant expiring contracts to create significant cap room to re-sign them. Albeit, the cap could be 65 M by then for all we know. Maybe we can convince Price and Kostitsyn to take 1 year deals at a decent price (like the Rangers did with Lundqvist this past summer with the understanding a wealthy extension was coming in January) and give them their big multi year deals the following summer when we get cap relief from the end of the Hamrlik and Markov deals. Halak could also be dealt by then.
I think we will be in a sad situation if by summer 2010, one or more of our crop of defense prospects haven't made either Hamrlik or Markov expendable. I seriously doubt we will see the current six in Montreal while Subban, Weber,Carle and Valentenko are all playing in the AHL.

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07-13-2008, 08:31 PM
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Gainey's going to concentrate on Komisarek, Higgins and Plekanec...and possibly sign Price to an extension ahead of time as well. (Kommy could be extended this summer as well)

Kovalev and Koivu may take a home town cut to stay, only reason they leave...1, Kovy gets a crazy KHL contract, 2 we don't win the Cup and they seek their best option to win elsewhere or Montreal feels they need to go in a different direction.

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07-13-2008, 08:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HABitual Fan View Post
I think we will be in a sad situation if by summer 2010, one or more of our crop of defense prospects haven't made either Hamrlik or Markov expendable. I seriously doubt we will see the current six in Montreal while Subban, Weber,Carle and Valentenko are all playing in the AHL.
McDonagh will be signed and will step in I think too, not to mention MaxPac at forward too and potentially Maxwell.

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07-13-2008, 08:40 PM
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Originally Posted by HABitual Fan View Post
I think we will be in a sad situation if by summer 2010, one or more of our crop of defense prospects haven't made either Hamrlik or Markov expendable. I seriously doubt we will see the current six in Montreal while Subban, Weber,Carle and Valentenko are all playing in the AHL.
I don't think I'm going on a limb if I predict that in 2 seasons Markov will still be a top 10 dman in this league...and yet guys with 0 pro experience like Weber and Subban are supposed to push him out? Why are you hoping for our most important blueliners to become expendable? Or have I misread your post.

Bottom pairing guys will be in far greater danger of losing their posts. Bouillon, O'Byrne and Gorges might be expendable if McDonagh, Subban & co. really turn things up, but I see no reason for Hamrlik and Markov to feel threatened in the near future.

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07-13-2008, 08:56 PM
  #24
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Originally Posted by Quiet Robert View Post
I don't think I'm going on a limb if I predict that in 2 seasons Markov will still be a top 10 dman in this league...and yet guys with 0 pro experience like Weber and Subban are supposed to push him out? Why are you hoping for our most important blueliners to become expendable? Or have I misread your post.

Bottom pairing guys will be in far greater danger of losing their posts. Bouillon, O'Byrne and Gorges might be expendable if McDonagh, Subban & co. really turn things up, but I see no reason for Hamrlik and Markov to feel threatened in the near future.
If this thread were about the best possible line-up, then I agree with you. However if we are talking about remaining competitive in a cap world and needing to sign guys like Price and S Kostitsyn then somewhere the team will need to compromise. Remember we are talking about 2 summers from now, If we can replace other holes in the line-up, such as at center, then one of them will sadly need to go since they have big contracts, and more importantly have value. Who knows, perhaps trading a top 10 defenseman will get us the top 10 forward we are currently lacking? In two years perhaps Josh Gorges will be good enough to replace Hamrlik? We can't predict player developent but any tme you can get similar play at a fracton of the price it can only be a good thing in a salary cap.

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07-13-2008, 10:03 PM
  #25
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Originally Posted by MONACOBLUE View Post
It's likely that Tanguay will not be re-signed after this year. He looks like the kind of guy who'll have an amazing year and then sign with someone else for the highest bidder. Don't be surprised if he leaves and solves our cap problem for us.
I remember Gainey saying that Tanguay, considering he's young, could help the team for a few years. I understand that time will tell, but we shouldn't count him out too soon.

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