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MacT excited for the new season.

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Old
07-15-2008, 07:45 PM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jadeddog View Post
i agree that gagner and nilsson are years away from their best offensive seasons.... but i think that they should both stay about the same or slightly improve this season, in goal differential that is, not neccesarily in GF..... i also agree that people here WAAAAAY over-estimate the ability of young players to improve from season to season.... that being said, i think we can agree that gagner looks to be a special player, and i really wouldn't be that shocked to see him score 60 points next year.... although i also wouldn't be shocked to see him only score 30 points and struggle throughout the season.... but im aware that there is a possibility of him lighting things up pretty soon, and i never really thought that was even possible with either stoll or torres

everybody is kinda jumping on dashingsilverfox here.... myself included, lol.... but his main overall point is rather valid... we need more scoring help this year, as we certainly didnt have enough last year.... i ran through some numbers to see where we stood when it comes to snipers, and its not pretty.... here are the number of players each team had above a certain goal total (ex. ottawa has 2 players score over 40 goals and one over 30 goals, obviously the two that scored 40+ also scored 30+)

40+
ottawa - 2
washington - 1
atlanta - 1
calgary - 1
pittsburgh - 1
detroit - 1
st.louis - 1
minnesota - 1
tampa bay - 1

30+
ottawa - 3
calgary - 2
detroit - 2
minnesota - 2
buffalo - 2
philadelphia - 2
los angeles - 2
washington - 1
atlanta - 1
pittsburgh - 1
st.louis - 1
tampa bay - 1
carolina - 1
columbus - 1
chicago - 1
montreal - 1
florida - 1
toronto - 1
dallas - 1
new jersey - 1

25+
philadelphia - 5
pittsburgh - 4
montreal - 4
buffalo - 3
calgary - 3
detroit - 3
dallas - 3
ottawa - 3
washington - 2
new york rangers - 2
vancouver - 2
nashville - 2
colorado - 2
st.louis - 2
minnesota - 2
tampa bay - 2
carolina - 2
columbus - 2
florida - 2
phoenix - 2
los angeles - 2
toronto - 2
new jersey - 1
san jose - 1
anaheim - 1
boston - 1
atlanta - 1
chicago - 1

you'll notice that the only teams missing are the oilers and the islanders.... in fact the vast majority of teams had at least 2 players with 25+ goals, while we didnt even have one.... obviously injuries played a role in that, and i think an argument could be made that all three of hemsky, horcoff and penner might have gotten 25+ had they all been healthy all season.... but its not like other teams didnt have injuries to worry about as well, and they all managed to produce at least one player who was a legit scoring threat..... makes no bones about it, we need horcoff, cole, penner and hemsky to all have good seasons, with at least 2 of them getting 25+ if we're going to have a shot at the playoffs
I appreciate all that work and had considered doing it myself but the damn phone keeps ringing.

My point, and I don't understand the resistance to it, is the Oilers are a sniper away from being ultra competitive.

While you can expect a lower GA/G next season, unless they're top ten in scoring, they will still be in a dogfight for a playoff spot. (see Vancouver who were 7th in GA and 23rd in GF. That's about equal to 26th and 17th and guess where they were in the standings?)

People here tend to see the Oilers in isolation but they're going to be battling some teams on the rise.

Chicago is the most immediate target and they were 10th in GF/G and 20th in GA/G both better than the Oilers.

Phoenix was 21st in GF/G and 17th in GA/G. Phoenix has added Jokinen and Turris among others to address their lack of scoring so expect an improvement there.

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Old
07-15-2008, 08:00 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
That solid veteran defense core was a combined -39 last season. The young guys were -19.

But I admire your optimism.
I would think that someone as wisdom-ed as you would not make the mistake of founding arguments on the plus-minus stat.

But sure, I'll play the game.

Greene was bleeding defensively until he got shifted down to the bottom pairing. Staios was forced to play higher minutes because of that, and with Souray out, had to play the toughest competition for more minutes than he should be asked to play.

So tell me, who, after Staois, was our "veteran defensive core"? No one. He was basically all we had. Pitkanen, Greene, Grebs, Gilbert, Smid and Roy were basically 6 of our top 7 the whole year.

Last year showed once again that losing veteran defensive presence while increasing rookie defensive presence means having to hide the young guys more than can be reasonably done. The GA suffered as a result.

Since you're so lusty for Detroit, let me ask you a hypothetical question. Maybe more of a thought experiment. But I'll be nice and I'll set it up to be heavily in your favour. First, take any of Detroit's teams for the last, oh, 10 years. Anyone you want. Now, remove all the defensemen. Then add in Smid, Roy, Greene and Bisaillon. Now add any 2 Detroit defensemen you want. Does that team finish with the same record? If not, what kind of change do you think they would have? Does that team make the playoffs? If so, how far do you think they would get?

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07-15-2008, 08:54 PM
  #53
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I also kind of think the Oilers will have to be a team to outscore their opponents, rather than outlast them, as I do not think there is the ability in place to shut teams down. And to outscore teams, the powerplay will have to continue with what it was doing towards the end of the year.

From a defensive standpoint, I have some worries about our goal-tending, I am a bit of a Missouri frame of mind about it currently. I also cannot see how the Oilers can be successful if they need Staios to play 22+ minutes a game, with his style of play I think 18 will be about right. Therefore, we are going to have to hope that Grebs and Gilbert both take another step and that Souray can stay healthy. Forward-wise, a healthy (???) Moreau and Pisani will be leaned on fairly heavily, and I for one would not be sad to see Reasoner back at 850K.

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07-15-2008, 09:36 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Giant Moo View Post
I would think that someone as wisdom-ed as you would not make the mistake of founding arguments on the plus-minus stat.

But sure, I'll play the game.

Greene was bleeding defensively until he got shifted down to the bottom pairing. Staios was forced to play higher minutes because of that, and with Souray out, had to play the toughest competition for more minutes than he should be asked to play.

So tell me, who, after Staois, was our "veteran defensive core"? No one. He was basically all we had. Pitkanen, Greene, Grebs, Gilbert, Smid and Roy were basically 6 of our top 7 the whole year.

Last year showed once again that losing veteran defensive presence while increasing rookie defensive presence means having to hide the young guys more than can be reasonably done. The GA suffered as a result.

Since you're so lusty for Detroit, let me ask you a hypothetical question. Maybe more of a thought experiment. But I'll be nice and I'll set it up to be heavily in your favour. First, take any of Detroit's teams for the last, oh, 10 years. Anyone you want. Now, remove all the defensemen. Then add in Smid, Roy, Greene and Bisaillon. Now add any 2 Detroit defensemen you want. Does that team finish with the same record? If not, what kind of change do you think they would have? Does that team make the playoffs? If so, how far do you think they would get?
Are you playing with the Oilers lost season or last season?

Let's look at last season okay. How many games did Roy and Bisaillon play last season?

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07-15-2008, 10:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Are you playing with the Oilers lost season or last season?
They were both lost seasons, for all intents and purposes.

Quote:
Let's look at last season okay. How many games did Roy and Bisaillon play last season?
Okie dokie.

Roy 13, Bisaillon 0.

Now tell me about Greene's collapse under top-4 minute pressure, and the resulting Greene/Smid's soft minutes.

BTW, something you said earlier:

Quote:
That solid veteran defense core was a combined -39 last season. The young guys were -19.
Looking at the official numbers at the Oilers Web site, I can't figure how you got those numbers. Smid and Gilbert alone are -21.

Smid, Greene, Pitkanen, Gilbert, Young and Grebeshkov are a total of (-15 + -3 + -5 + -6 + -1 + 2) = -28, if my math is correct.

Rourke, Staios and Souray are a total of (-1 + -14 + -7) = -22.

I don't know how you got the numbers of -39 and -19, unless you consider guys like Greene and Pitkanen more towards the "veteran" side and less on the "young guys" side (which is highly debatable). Even if you do, your numbers still don't add up.

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07-15-2008, 10:22 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Giant Moo View Post
They were both lost seasons, for all intents and purposes.



Okie dokie.

Roy 13, Bisaillon 0.

Now tell me about Greene's collapse under top-4 minute pressure, and the resulting Greene/Smid's soft minutes.

BTW, something you said earlier:



Looking at the official numbers at the Oilers Web site, I can't figure how you got those numbers. Smid and Gilbert alone are -21.

Smid, Greene, Pitkanen, Gilbert, Young and Grebeshkov are a total of (-15 + -3 + -5 + -6 + -1 + 2) = -28, if my math is correct.

Rourke, Staios and Souray are a total of (-1 + -14 + -7) = -22.

I don't know how you got the numbers of -39 and -19, unless you consider guys like Greene and Pitkanen more towards the "veteran" side and less on the "young guys" side (which is highly debatable). Even if you do, your numbers still don't add up.
Last season.

Visnovsky, Souray, Staios and Visnovsky.

Your definition of veteran shutdown defensemen.

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07-15-2008, 10:25 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Last season.

Visnovsky, Souray, Staios and Visnovsky.

Your definition of veteran shutdown defensemen.
So you counted Visnovsky twice and then didn't explain the deriviation of your "young guys" stat?

I'm not sure what to say. I notice some symptoms of selective-answering-syndrome though.

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07-15-2008, 10:41 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Giant Moo View Post
So you counted Visnovsky twice and then didn't explain the deriviation of your "young guys" stat?

I'm not sure what to say. I notice some symptoms of selective-answering-syndrome though.
Oh okay there are only 3 veteran defensemen. A typo. Is it better now?

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07-15-2008, 10:55 PM
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Oh okay there are only 3 veteran defensemen. A typo. Is it better now?
Still waiting on the rest.

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07-15-2008, 10:58 PM
  #60
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Still waiting on the rest.
You're waiting on what?

The Oilers are favoured to win the West?

Dream on.

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07-15-2008, 11:31 PM
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My point, and I don't understand the resistance to it, is the Oilers are a sniper away from being ultra competitive.
I think that is a fair comment myself.

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07-15-2008, 11:33 PM
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I think that is a fair comment myself.
Thank you. How hard is that to understand?

It changes everything.

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07-15-2008, 11:37 PM
  #63
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Lowe's upgraded our team while also adding a more veteran presence. I think that will result in huge defensive improvements.
I agree with that.

As for the goal scorers, Horc's injury really messes that chart up, as he was on pace for 35+, Penner would also have gotten 25+ had he been in, and maybe even Hemsky would have reached 25. ALSO, our PP sucked MASSIVE donkey balls in the first 20-30 games... If we'd have a PP as good as we should be, the goals shouldn't be that bad, and +/- stat will be compensated.

(Please MacT, figure out early how to use both Vis and Souray on the 1st PP unit, pleeeeeease....)

Lastly, DSF's love for PHX is starting to catch up with Raoul Duke's Lindros love. I think I'll swing by the PHX board to see if they're pumping their team as much. PHX still has a gaping hole on D paired with a goalie that pretty much always had top notch D in front of him, I'm curious to see how that works out. EDM is more of a complete team than PHX at this point, no matter how you look at it...

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07-15-2008, 11:48 PM
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I agree with that.

As for the goal scorers, Horc's injury really messes that chart up, as he was on pace for 35+, Penner would also have gotten 25+ had he been in, and maybe even Hemsky would have reached 25. ALSO, our PP sucked MASSIVE donkey balls in the first 20-30 games... If we'd have a PP as good as we should be, the goals shouldn't be that bad, and +/- stat will be compensated.

(Please MacT, figure out early how to use both Vis and Souray on the 1st PP unit, pleeeeeease....)

Lastly, DSF's love for PHX is starting to catch up with Raoul Duke's Lindros love. I think I'll swing by the PHX board to see if they're pumping their team as much. PHX still has a gaping hole on D paired with a goalie that pretty much always had top notch D in front of him, I'm curious to see how that works out. EDM is more of a complete team than PHX at this point, no matter how you look at it...
Phoenix will be a little softer defensively by they've added, Jokinen, Turris, Boedker, and others. they'll be just fine.

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07-15-2008, 11:56 PM
  #65
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So I swung by the PHX board. There's al sorts of predictions there akin to the ones done here where people over/under value players, etc. What I found interesting was someone posting the franchise records, and in PIMs:

Top PIMS
1. Shane Doan 742
2. Keith Tkachuk 716
3. Jeremey Roenick 596
4. Daniel Carcillo 398
5. Rick Tocchet 371

So funny this guy is on pace to break the franchise record in his 2nd season. I didn't know it was this bad when coaches said he needs to cut down on the penalties...

Sorry for the OT comment...

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07-16-2008, 12:05 AM
  #66
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
You're waiting on what?

The Oilers are favoured to win the West?

Dream on.
I'm waiting on the rest, now being the second time I have to ask you to explain how you came up with your numbers for the "young guys" at -19.

Asking you to show your work when you claim something is reasonable. I don't know why you have so much resistance. If anything, it makes your arguments weaker.

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07-16-2008, 12:14 AM
  #67
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Phoenix will be a little softer defensively by they've added, Jokinen, Turris, Boedker, and others. they'll be just fine.
Yeah, sure, competing for 8th. Many unproven people in those "improvement" you speak of. Here's an example of what I think is some reasonable predictions from their board (though I have no clue why most of their fans put Doan with more points than Jokinen, nor why Jokinen is sometimes NOT their top goal scorer):

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Originally Posted by PhxHunter View Post
Goals Assists Pts
Doan 29 54 83
Jokinen 33 42 75
Mueller 29 33 62
Turris 16 33 49
Bodker 21 21 42
Rhino 11 30 41
Jovo 9 33 42
Hanzal 12 27 39
Lisin 14 19 33
Winnik 12 21 33
Carcillo 14 18 32
Morris 8 17 25
Fedoruk 6 12 18
Michalek 3 15 18
Yandle 5 12 17
Tikhonov 6 11 17
Porter 4 8 12
Sauer 1 9 10
Hale 0 6 6
Jones 0 3 3

Total of 233 or 2.84 per game that would put us 10th overall
Their young guns' estimated stats are very much like what our young guys did last year. I don't see how they are such a power house with those guys and we're not with ours. My main reserve about PHX is the fact that they had a tight defensive system last year, that's why they kept up with the pack, but having many rookies will have make it harder doing that IMO, just like EDM's GA last year (including many 3rd period melt downs).

EDIT: also, I'd like to point out the person mentions these stats would be good for 10th best offense in the league. Now I look at PHX on paper and seriously doubt they have the 10th best offense. Wonder what you think about that DSF?

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