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Ottawa and Vancouver in talks

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Old
07-26-2008, 10:52 PM
  #151
Ched Brosky
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
They aren't highly touted like Price.

Yeah and Fuhr just schooled ya.



Thanks big guy!
25 goalies:
- 2 that could be considered "Franchise"
- 2 more that are interesting young starters
- 5 guys who were journeymen starters/back-up goalies
- 16 back-ups at best / minor leaguers ... that's a lot higher than 1/8, actually it's a 64% failure rate.
84% if you count the journeymen as failures.
Wow obviously you guys can't read as I said in the past 4 years so we can look at 1 year before the new NHL and the new NHL. The reason I'm not including goalies from before then, is because there were many (pretty much a dime a dozen) highly touted goalie prospects back then compared to now.

Only one on that list that was a bust in the PAST 4 YEARS (big enough for you guys?) is Hannu Toivonen


Last edited by Ched Brosky: 07-26-2008 at 10:59 PM.
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Old
07-26-2008, 11:02 PM
  #152
trentmccleary
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Originally Posted by Grand Theft Luongo View Post
Interesting.

Why did you choose to omit all goalies chosen before the 6th pick from your list?
Because those are the actual franchise goalie picks based on the large division in success between top-5 and beyond goalies (off the top of my head: Barrasso, Luongo, Dipietro, Fleury, Price, Lehtonen). There seems to be little chance that top-5 picks won't become very good starters.

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Originally Posted by Silverback91 View Post
Wow obviously you guys can't read as I said in the past 4 years so we can look at 1 year before the new NHL and the new NHL.

Only one on that list that was a bust in the PAST 4 YEARS (big enough for you guys?) is Hannu Toivonen
Well, Toivonen was picked 6 years ago and the bigger the sample size... the more reliable your conclusion.
However, if you wanted to look at only the past 4 drafts where barely any of those 1st round goalies are in the NHL (only Price?)... then there are zero busts.

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Old
07-26-2008, 11:08 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by Grand Theft Luongo View Post
Interesting.

Why did you choose to omit all goalies chosen before the 6th pick from your list?
Top five picks when drafting a goalie turn out to be solid. If the goalie is not top five talent then he really is not worth drafting the history shows.

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Old
07-26-2008, 11:13 PM
  #154
Bleach Clean
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Originally Posted by Fuhr86 View Post
Top five picks when drafting a goalie turn out to be solid. If the goalie is not top five talent then he really is not worth drafting the history shows.

Not that I disagree with the assessment, but as far as sample size goes: How far back should this study go? Brodeur? Roy? etc..


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Old
07-26-2008, 11:21 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by Silverback91 View Post
Wow obviously you guys can't read as I said in the past 4 years so we can look at 1 year before the new NHL and the new NHL. The reason I'm not including goalies from before then, is because there were many (pretty much a dime a dozen) highly touted goalie prospects back then compared to now.
Are you serious? or did you just begin to follow hockey since the lockout. Just as many goalies 10 years ago were highly touted as there is now, has not changed.

Quote:
Only one on that list that was a bust in the PAST 4 YEARS (big enough for you guys?) is Hannu Toivonen
I'll take the sample size from 1990 to 2003 as my indicator as to how goalies develop. The only reason I have not added the goalies since 2003 because it is to soon to know for sure who busts.

2004: Al Montoya 6, Devan Dubnyk 14, Marek Schwarz 17, Cory Schneider 27
2005: Tuukka Rask 21
2006: Jonathan Bernier 11, Riku Helenius 15, Semen Varlamov 23, Leland Irving 26
2007: Nothing

In 10 years when looking at that list you will see
- One solid number one (maybe two)
- Three journymen starters
- Five backups at best/AHL goalies

History shows this, the lockout all of a sudden did not make first round pick goalies magically get better, that's ridiculous.

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Old
07-26-2008, 11:24 PM
  #156
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Not that I disagree with the assessment, but as far as sample size goes: How far back should this study go? Brodeur? Roy? etc..

Bleach Clean
I went back to 1990, I wrote about this prior to the draft in regards to Sens fans wanting goalies and I was opposed.

Aside from top five picks, who do develop into dominant goalies it was my opinion that you have just as much if not better luck then finding a goalie in the mid to late rounds then you have picking him up in the first.

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Old
07-26-2008, 11:33 PM
  #157
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Originally Posted by Fuhr86 View Post
I went back to 1990, I wrote about this prior to the draft in regards to Sens fans wanting goalies and I was opposed.

Aside from top five picks, who do develop into dominant goalies it was my opinion that you have just as much if not better luck then finding a goalie in the mid to late rounds then you have picking him up in the first.

Well, the quick and dirty way to know for sure (relatively) is to choose a time frame (which you had), tabulate all the goalies to play X amount of games in the show, and cluster them based on rounds.


Where this falls short is finding a definition for "dominant goalie". You can assign a GAA, Save % value as a standard, filtering goalies based on that. Another caveat might be the likelyhood of 1st rnd 'tenders making the show, vs. late round pick-ups. Maybe there's information here to tell us that a 1st rndr has a better chance of making it as opposed to goalies in later rounds (you'd have to define what "later rounds" also means.


A lot of analysis to be done, but you can see how the argument can be debated both ways.

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Old
07-27-2008, 03:06 AM
  #158
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Originally Posted by PACaptain View Post
The Canucks are loaded on defense so as much as I like Salo as a player, getting Vermette would be a huge lift for Vancouver's offense.

Should this be any indicator on Sundin's plans? Does Gillis think the chances are dropping?
Not really because Gillis said that nothing will get done until he finds out what Sundin decides on. If he thought Sundin had made his mind up and didn't decide Vancouver, then a deal would have been done already. In other words, it's part of plan B.

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