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2008 Phillies: Part 4. September and beyond

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Old
09-12-2008, 04:06 AM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Don't strain something patting yourself on your back.

Wasn't our starting pitching fine?
If our offense had bothered to win all of those brilliant pitching performances in July and August, we wouldn't have to worry about it.

I believe you said earlier that "it evens out." The pitching has basically had 1 bad month. But they've been in the top-5 in the NL in 4 of the 6 months of this season and they were 7th in one of those other 2 months.

So it doesn't quite "even out" does it?

And I'm not patting myself on the back, just pointing out that a lot of people (including you) seemed to just blithely assume that the team would come out and have a storming 2nd half.

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09-12-2008, 08:28 AM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
And I'm not patting myself on the back, just pointing out that a lot of people (including you) seemed to just blithely assume that the team would come out and have a storming 2nd half.
No, people like me were telling people like you to stop having a panic attack and hyperventilating into a brown bag in July. My ability to predict the future is lacking, otherwise I would be a heavy gambler. And that post was JXC-esque in its crowing.

Moreover, with 15 games left in the season...this team is 80-67. A modest 8-7 gets them to 88 wins (exactly what any normal person would have pegged them for at the outset)...a slightly more aggressive 10-5 run would put them at 90 wins.

DISASTER!

The story of the second half isn't the Phillies not getting it done...that team was, is, and will be flawed until a few alterations to the team are made. The story of the second half is the absolutely absurd record the Mets have put together since July started (42-21).

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09-12-2008, 08:39 AM
  #53
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Was I the only one last night who was holding their breath when Manuel put Durbin in? Seemed to me the perfect opportunity for a 4 out appearance for Lidge.

Serious props for Jamie Moyer to pitch on 3 days rest.

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09-12-2008, 08:47 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by pelts35.com View Post
Was I the only one last night who was holding their breath when Manuel put Durbin in? Seemed to me the perfect opportunity for a 4 out appearance for Lidge.

Serious props for Jamie Moyer to pitch on 3 days rest.
gotta be careful how often you go to the well...hopefully Lidge is going to see a lot of action the next few weeks.

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09-12-2008, 10:29 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
No, people like me were telling people like you to stop having a panic attack and hyperventilating into a brown bag in July. My ability to predict the future is lacking, otherwise I would be a heavy gambler. And that post was JXC-esque in its crowing.

Moreover, with 15 games left in the season...this team is 80-67. A modest 8-7 gets them to 88 wins (exactly what any normal person would have pegged them for at the outset)...a slightly more aggressive 10-5 run would put them at 90 wins.

DISASTER!

The story of the second half isn't the Phillies not getting it done...that team was, is, and will be flawed until a few alterations to the team are made. The story of the second half is the absolutely absurd record the Mets have put together since July started (42-21).
Meh I don't think anyone had panic attacks in July, I remember saying many times, "I'm not going to get too worried until mid to late August."

The problem was all the assumptions of the "oh, we're a 2nd half team."

And going into the season, I don't think anyone projected us have the 4th best pitching staff in the NL. If we had been going into the season and someone told us, "The Phillies will have the 4th best pitching in the NL and the NL's best closer", I think a lot of people would have projected 95 wins or so.

The problem is that basically Rollins and Utley suffered big, big declines from where they were last year and I know Rollins is at about all of his career averages, but the key word for me personally is consistency.

Ah well, it's almost hockey season, the Sixers look good, and the Eagles could be interesting, not a big deal.

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Old
09-12-2008, 12:17 PM
  #56
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By the way, Jimmy Rollins guaranteed that the Phillies were going to win 100 games before the season. 90 wins is good, but not good enough for where this team wants to be. At least where the players want to be.

Pat Burrell will be gone, so they can spend money on an actual pitcher and figure out a way to dump Eaton.

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09-12-2008, 12:33 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post

Pat Burrell will be gone, so they can spend money on an actual pitcher and figure out a way to dump Eaton.
Throw one of his paychecks down a seriously deep well?

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09-12-2008, 02:52 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
The problem is that basically Rollins and Utley suffered big, big declines from where they were last year and I know Rollins is at about all of his career averages, but the key word for me personally is consistency.
Career years are called career years for a reason.

Rollins (predictably) regressed, and they lost Rowand who was a key cog for the team last year.

Myers and Eaton were problems at the beginning of the year, and Kendrick has been a disaster at the end...with Blanton varying. The volatility of statistics in baseball is of importance when talking about pitching. As much as you might want to complain about the volatility of the team scoring runs, the variance of our starters have been problematic as well. Guys throwing either gems or getting destroyed...the bottom of the rotation has consistently not given this team a chance to compete this season.

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09-12-2008, 02:54 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
Pat Burrell will be gone, so they can spend money on an actual pitcher and figure out a way to dump Eaton.
Using money (ie. going to the UFA market) for pitchers is usually a disaster. So, no, they shouldn't use that money to get pitching. They need to start developing their own.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joethunder View Post
Throw one of his paychecks down a seriously deep well?
It'll be interesting to see if they go after Manny (who supposedly likes the idea of padding his stats in CBP), or someone like Holliday via trade.

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09-12-2008, 04:24 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Using money (ie. going to the UFA market) for pitchers is usually a disaster. So, no, they shouldn't use that money to get pitching. They need to start developing their own.



It'll be interesting to see if they go after Manny (who supposedly likes the idea of padding his stats in CBP), or someone like Holliday via trade.
I thiunk we should look at Derek Lowe- groundball pitcher who would be a great 2/3 with hamels and myers. Bring back moyer and have a rotation of
1. Hamels
2. Lowe
3. Myers
4. Moyer
5. Blanton/ Happ/ Kenderick
---- Carrasco up by mid season

Then let Burrel walk. look at someone like Manny.. We can offer him the money, a great ballpark to get his HR's up, a great offense to play with and a very winnable division
1. Rollins
2. Utley
3. Manny
4. Howard
5. Werth
6. Victorino
7. Feliz
8. Marson/ Coste/ Ruiz

and have Dobbs, Jenkins and hopefully a speed guy on the bench.

so....
Manny- 4 years 64 mil- 16 mil/per
Lowe- 4 years 52 mil- 13/mil per

and then let Burrel, Gordon, and other walk.

Bring back durbin at a reasonable price.

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09-12-2008, 04:34 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
our offense
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2008/8/...accompanying-f

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
Ah well, it's almost hockey season, the Sixers look good, and the Eagles could be interesting, not a big deal.
stop starting arguments you're going to inevitably back out of

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09-12-2008, 05:05 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Career years are called career years for a reason.

Rollins (predictably) regressed, and they lost Rowand who was a key cog for the team last year.

Myers and Eaton were problems at the beginning of the year, and Kendrick has been a disaster at the end...with Blanton varying. The volatility of statistics in baseball is of importance when talking about pitching. As much as you might want to complain about the volatility of the team scoring runs, the variance of our starters have been problematic as well. Guys throwing either gems or getting destroyed...the bottom of the rotation has consistently not given this team a chance to compete this season.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh
I know Rollins is at about all of his career averages, but the key word for me personally is consistency.
I don't think anyone was predicting J-Roll to hit .300 with 30 homers again, he's just not that good. However, for me a key stat is runs-scored, 139 last year and right now, he's at 67. I really don't understand what's going on there TBH considering we have the NL leader in HRs and RBIs a couple spots behind him, haven't watched enough Phillies ball recently I guess.

It does seem to me that when I left a couple weeks ago, he was hitting .255 or so and that seems to have jumped by .020 points, so he must have gone on a big-time hot streak or something. I know he's had injuries and all that, but the man is 5th on our team in runs, I just don't see him being the catalyst at the top of the order like he has been in years past (not just 07).

Utley just confuses me, I mean, he's always talked about as one of the premier run producers in the NL and then at the end of the day, you look at him and he only has 93 RBI, so I dunno what's going on there.

As for the pitching, we've had this argument 80 times, I still argue the pitching has done more for the ballclub than the hitting has.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sievea
That stuff all evens out, for example, the team has been remarkably healthy in general this year. Compare that to the Mets who lost Wagner, Church, Pagan (who was raking for them early), and now John Maine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sievea
stop starting arguments you're going to inevitably back out of
Did I kill your dog in a past life or something? Settle down.

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09-12-2008, 05:12 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
That stuff all evens out, for example, the team has been remarkably healthy in general this year.
their BABIP is still 2nd lowest despite that, unless you are arguing that having all the starters mostly healthy has made that much of a difference defensively

Quote:
Did I kill your dog in a past life or something? Settle down.
i'm calm, but don't start arguments with Jester as much as you do if you're just going to back out of it, you do it a lot and if anything it wastes everyones time.

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09-12-2008, 05:23 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sievea View Post
their BABIP is still 2nd lowest despite that, unless you are arguing that having all the starters mostly healthy has made that much of a difference defensively
Huh? I'm saying that just like we are unfortunate with BABIP, we've been fortunate with injuries. It evens out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sievea
i'm calm, but don't start arguments with Jester as much as you do if you're just going to back out of it, you do it a lot and if anything it wastes everyones time.
Jester has the unfortunate habit of having to post a comment about every single post he disagrees with. Most of these arguments just turn into a huge circle.

I can sum up the argument that's literally been going on since June, Jester supports the hitters more than I do and I generally support the pitching more than he does.

So why should I take 20 minutes to keep writing posts that have already been paraphrased 2 months ago?

Also, I did not start the argument with Jester.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh
"Blah blah blah we're a 2nd half team don't listen to FH who says we're just resting on our laurels and forgetting what it takes to win."

Fast forward a few months to a 26-23 2nd half (so far) and it's "Blah blah blah, fans like FH who wanted us to work hard and not rest on our laurels are the reason we're losing."

Sad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Don't strain something patting yourself on your back.

Wasn't our starting pitching fine?
As you can see, Jester chose to take exception with my (largely sarcastic) post, so I don't see how I am really responsible here.

I'm really curious what I did to you, seems like you try to come attack me in every thread, do I know you in real life or something?

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Old
09-12-2008, 05:26 PM
  #65
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The Phillies have won all the coin flips. ALL one-game playoffs will be here.


Milwaukee lost ALL their coin flips.

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09-12-2008, 05:38 PM
  #66
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The good thing too is that I think CC pitched on Wednesday because the next 3 pitchers are Parra, Bush, and Suppan after they beat Sheets last night.

So I mean, unless they pitch CC on short rest which is possible, these 3 games should be winnable.

The one that scares me is that 4th one though, I'm a little iffy about Myers on short rest, but definitely don't want Kendrick, so we'll see.

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09-12-2008, 05:49 PM
  #67
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anyone have any word on tonights game?? they playing

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09-12-2008, 05:52 PM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
It does seem to me that when I left a couple weeks ago, he was hitting .255 or so and that seems to have jumped by .020 points, so he must have gone on a big-time hot streak or something. I know he's had injuries and all that, but the man is 5th on our team in runs, I just don't see him being the catalyst at the top of the order like he has been in years past (not just 07).
1) He missed 20 odd games and then was playing on a bum ankle.
2) The combined BA for Howard/Utley has dropped considerably, which means he isn't getting the opportunities to run around the bases on base knocks as much.
3) His OBP is .004 lower than last season...he's getting on base at the same rate.
4) He's on pace to steal the most bases in his career.

Rollins is the same player he's always been, the guys behind him aren't doing as good a job of pushing him around the bases as they have in previous years.

Quote:
Utley just confuses me, I mean, he's always talked about as one of the premier run producers in the NL and then at the end of the day, you look at him and he only has 93 RBI, so I dunno what's going on there.
He's on pace for 100 RBIs, mid 30s HRs, and a decent average (sure, we'd like him to hit over .300)...as a 2B and you're not sure what's going on there? The guy is having a pretty fantastic offensive season for a 2B...that's what is going on there.

Quote:
As for the pitching, we've had this argument 80 times, I still argue the pitching has done more for the ballclub than the hitting has.
And yet the batting has done better against the rest of the league than the pitching. Last year when they won the division they led the league in come from behind wins. When they were in first place at the beginning of the summer...they were either 1st or 2nd in come from behind wins (competing with the surprising Marlins clubs).

Our starters have given mixed results throughout the course of the year (other than Hamels). Which means you always are facing teams that get to use their BP exactly the way they want to get to their closer...making it tougher to score runs.

Think about the Phils...if they're trailing by a couple of runs who are they going to give the game to first? Durbin...or Condrey?

The reason the pitching argument falls flat is because the starters haven't been as good as you seem to think they have been.

Quote:
That stuff all evens out, for example, the team has been remarkably healthy in general this year. Compare that to the Mets who lost Wagner, Church, Pagan (who was raking for them early), and now John Maine.
Mets got ridiculous production from guys like Delgado, Tatis, Murphy, etc. to balance those injuries out. Production they won't be able to count on with any regularity.

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09-12-2008, 05:54 PM
  #69
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anyone have any word on tonights game?? they playing
i'm supposed to be going...it doesn't appear that anything official has been decided yet. i can't imagine they're going to get it in.

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09-12-2008, 05:54 PM
  #70
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i'm supposed to be going...it doesn't appear that anything official has been decided yet. i can't imagine they're going to get it in.
ok thanks

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09-12-2008, 06:11 PM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
1) He missed 20 odd games and then was playing on a bum ankle.
2) The combined BA for Howard/Utley has dropped considerably, which means he isn't getting the opportunities to run around the bases on base knocks as much.
3) His OBP is .004 lower than last season...he's getting on base at the same rate.
4) He's on pace to steal the most bases in his career.

Rollins is the same player he's always been, the guys behind him aren't doing as good a job of pushing him around the bases as they have in previous years.
I forget where I saw this, but I read something about how Rollins OBP when leading off an inning or when there was 1 out with nobody on was ridiculously low. I don't feel like finding it again, but I just don't think he's been quite the sparkplug that he has been in years past.

His OBP with bases empty is .302 and I mean, while the RBIs are nice and all, his primary job is to get himself on base so the guys behind him can knock him in.

I mean, in the same breath, you defend Utley, so if Utley is such a phenomenal player and Howard is leading the NL in RBIs, why isn't Rollins scoring runs?

I just don't get why Utley's average just dropped 40 points either. That's like a .290 guy going to .250. His OPS is significantly lower as well obviously. If he's a .290 hitter, that's fine, I was just hoping for more a .320-.330 type guy.

Plus, his RISP and his RISP with 2/outs are just brutal considering he hit .332 last year unless that was his career year (possible).


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
And yet the batting has done better against the rest of the league than the pitching. Last year when they won the division they led the league in come from behind wins. When they were in first place at the beginning of the summer...they were either 1st or 2nd in come from behind wins (competing with the surprising Marlins clubs).
Last year has no relevance right now, obviously the offense was responsible for that playoff spot last year. And the beginning of the summer was almost 3 months ago.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Our starters have given mixed results throughout the course of the year (other than Hamels). Which means you always are facing teams that get to use their BP exactly the way they want to get to their closer...making it tougher to score runs.
Stats don't lie my friend. Plus you have always been the guy bandying about runs-scored as a measure of how great the offense is, but now you refuse to accept ERA as a measure of the pitching.

And the BP has always been the strength of the team of course, but that still counts as part of the pitching staff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Mets got ridiculous production from guys like Delgado, Tatis, Murphy, etc. to balance those injuries out. Production they won't be able to count on with any regularity.
So we're losing the division because we're unlucky and the Mets are lucky? Nice rationale there.

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09-12-2008, 07:00 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
I forget where I saw this, but I read something about how Rollins OBP when leading off an inning or when there was 1 out with nobody on was ridiculously low. I don't feel like finding it again, but I just don't think he's been quite the sparkplug that he has been in years past.

His OBP with bases empty is .302 and I mean, while the RBIs are nice and all, his primary job is to get himself on base so the guys behind him can knock him in.
Can't predict when and where hits/getting on base are going to come from. And, generally speaking, pitchers are better with no one on. His last three years his OBP in that situation is .323...so not really that large a variance. As noted with the BABIP, the Phils have not had a particularly good year as far as luck (where the ball gets hit in play) and, in this case, timing for when Rollins walks/hits are happening.

Quote:
I mean, in the same breath, you defend Utley, so if Utley is such a phenomenal player and Howard is leading the NL in RBIs, why isn't Rollins scoring runs?
I'm not really sure what the point of the question is. You're complaining that Rollins isn't being a catalyst for the offense...he's getting on base at a pretty high rate for the course of his career. He's stealing bases (getting into scoring position). Unless you steal him, someone else needs to get you there.

Quote:
I just don't get why Utley's average just dropped 40 points either. That's like a .290 guy going to .250. His OPS is significantly lower as well obviously. If he's a .290 hitter, that's fine, I was just hoping for more a .320-.330 type guy.
tough to hit in the .320-.330 range consistently...guys who get up there routinely have massive volatility. hell, look at Tony Gwynn.

Bill Conlin is also convinced Utley is playing hurt.

Quote:
Plus, his RISP and his RISP with 2/outs are just brutal considering he hit .332 last year unless that was his career year (possible).
On the whole, hitters hit pretty much the same in all situations...there will be volatility, but it isn't predictable volatility.

Quote:
Last year has no relevance right now, obviously the offense was responsible for that playoff spot last year. And the beginning of the summer was almost 3 months ago.
And the beginning of the summer is when you came to the belief this was a 95 win team.

When the offense was winning us games from behind...they've tailed off in that end, and thus our record has cooled off.

Quote:
Stats don't lie my friend. Plus you have always been the guy bandying about runs-scored as a measure of how great the offense is, but now you refuse to accept ERA as a measure of the pitching.
Actually, I buy both. I turned the pitching argument right back in the face of the argument against the hitting. You complain that the hitting is great one night and not so great the next.

Same is true of the pitching...and our staff has been anchored by a few pitchers, whereas others have been dreadful at different times.

Quote:
And the BP has always been the strength of the team of course, but that still counts as part of the pitching staff.
BP can only really be an effective strength when you have the lead...if you don't have the lead, then the opponent is in a position of power. Throughout this season, our starters have given up the lead to the opponent more often than not on average.

Quote:
So we're losing the division because we're unlucky and the Mets are lucky? Nice rationale there.
Mets turn around has been because their pitching picked it up a notch and their offense REALLY picked it up a notch. Games are isolated events...Mets were getting terrible production at the outset, and ridiculous production since July started. They had players play above their level to get them to where they were...it happens with regularity in sports. There is always an element of luck...timing is everything in something where there are different weights on events. Get a hit with no one on and 2 outs and it doesn't have the impact of a hit with the bases loaded. Get that hit in a game in August and it doesn't have the weight of a game in October.

Can't ignore the luck of when events happen.

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09-12-2008, 07:09 PM
  #73
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game cancelled tonight

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09-13-2008, 01:42 AM
  #74
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Might be a blessing for the Phillies that Hamels gets an extra day of rest after going on 3 days of rest. A good omen to him from the baseball gods. Frankly, I think the Phillies will benefit from the extra day to feel good about Thursday.

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09-13-2008, 04:11 AM
  #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Can't predict when and where hits/getting on base are going to come from. And, generally speaking, pitchers are better with no one on. His last three years his OBP in that situation is .323...so not really that large a variance. As noted with the BABIP, the Phils have not had a particularly good year as far as luck (where the ball gets hit in play) and, in this case, timing for when Rollins walks/hits are happening.
Again, all I can say is that he hasn't been scoring runs and with the guys they have behind me, that should not be a problem. I just haven't seen any kind of consistency from him this year. If a guy goes 4-4 one night and then goes 0-4 the next 2 nights, his BA is still .333, but how much has he helped the team?

And there's always volatility in baseball, that's the nature of the game, it just seems to me that there's been more of it from Rollins this year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
tough to hit in the .320-.330 range consistently...guys who get up there routinely have massive volatility. hell, look at Tony Gwynn.

Bill Conlin is also convinced Utley is playing hurt.
That's definitely true, the problem is that whenever I see him, he just looks totally lost at the plate way too much of the time.

He has 6 HRs and 24 RBI since the break, the situational hitting with him has just been beyond brutal, call it unlucky or whatever you want, but it seemed that every time he had a big AB, it would just be a really ugly one that would end in a K or something.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
On the whole, hitters hit pretty much the same in all situations...there will be volatility, but it isn't predictable volatility.
That certainly hasn't been true this year for Utley. With Howard I can understand it just because if there's a runner on 2nd or 3rd, the defense can't play the shift as effectively, but with Utley, I just don't know what it is.

Hopefully it's an injury. But if the Chase Utley of last year was playing in this 2nd half, I think the Phils would be doing a bit better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
And the beginning of the summer is when you came to the belief this was a 95 win team.
I don't remember saying that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
When the offense was winning us games from behind...they've tailed off in that end, and thus our record has cooled off.
This is a pretty BS argument IMO. I mean, if the offense wins a game where they were trailing 1-0 or 2-1 in the 6th inning, who's responsible for the win, the offense or the pitching staff?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Actually, I buy both. I turned the pitching argument right back in the face of the argument against the hitting. You complain that the hitting is great one night and not so great the next.
Actually, the complaint is that the offense is great one night and not so great for the next 3. If you score 10 runs in 1 game and then 3 in the next 3, that's averaging nearly 5 runs per game, but the odds are that your team went 1-3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Same is true of the pitching...and our staff has been anchored by a few pitchers, whereas others have been dreadful at different times.
Same is true of nearly every team.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
BP can only really be an effective strength when you have the lead...if you don't have the lead, then the opponent is in a position of power. Throughout this season, our starters have given up the lead to the opponent more often than not on average.
So all these 2-1, 2-0, 3-2, 4-3 losses are because the pitching staff gave up the lead? Damn shame about the Pirates game where the pitching staff gave the Pirates the lead in the 12th inning, absolutely inexcusable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
Mets turn around has been because their pitching picked it up a notch and their offense REALLY picked it up a notch. Games are isolated events...Mets were getting terrible production at the outset, and ridiculous production since July started. They had players play above their level to get them to where they were...it happens with regularity in sports. There is always an element of luck...timing is everything in something where there are different weights on events. Get a hit with no one on and 2 outs and it doesn't have the impact of a hit with the bases loaded. Get that hit in a game in August and it doesn't have the weight of a game in October.

Can't ignore the luck of when events happen.
On June 13, this club was 7.5 games ahead of the Mets and had a chance to absolutely bury them. They responded with 3 months of .500 baseball.

I mean, yes the Mets definitely got very hot, but the Phils were the ones who allowed them to just keep hanging around in that race.

If you look at June, July, and August, the pitching on average has been 4th in the league. the offense has been 9th. That's a pretty important 3 month stretch where the offense was below average and the pitching was well-above average.

In my book, that's what it comes down to.

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