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Kovalchuk and Klee for Michalek, Couture, McLaren, Lukowich

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Old
09-13-2008, 05:47 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by Chocolate Skittles View Post
Not as dumb as using numbers from 2 years ago rather then last year.
I guess we can expect Crosby to score about 72 points every year, in that case. The two years before that obviously don't mean much, he's likely to get injured every year in the future based solely on last year.

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09-13-2008, 07:18 PM
  #52
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At that price, Ducks won't be bidders for his services then.

Getzlaf isn't moving as he's our franchise center and next captain and is the perfect kind of player you want leading your team in the playoffs. His contract is solid value.
That's fine, then it's going to have to be Perry.

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Perry already has chemistry with Getz and on a full season can likely score 35-40 goals. He also agitates the opposition to no end and draws penalties, while providing the spark for our first line.
Maybe he can, but has he? No, he has not. Kovalchuk scored 50+ goals on a draft lottery team with little to no help, as Marian Hossa was not a regular linemate of his, and was traded at the deadline.

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Kovalchuk is a game-breaker who will score 40-50 easy, maybe 55. I don't think though the difference between him and Perry is a top prospect + top-4 defender + 1 or 2 1st round draft picks.
If Kovalchuk was traded right now the difference would be as high as I think, being that...

A. His stock is definitely higher right now, having a phenomenal season with a terrible team, and needed little to no help to do so.

B. Has 2 years left on his contract, so he's not just a rental player with little to no chance of resigning.

C. This isn't the trade deadline, so there's more time to be had with him under this current contract - which is a bargain, compared to some of the other 50-goal scorers out there - before he goes asking for 8-9 million a year.

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*IF* ever Ilya leaves ATL I suspect you are going to be awfully disappointed in the return is this is your asking price.
Not if he was traded right now.

Maybe at the deadline where there's a month or two of service no guarantee that he'll be there any longer than that.

There are a lot of things you haven't factored into your argument.

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Old
09-13-2008, 07:50 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Trottier View Post
True.

And Tampa Bay was in no position to keep Lecavalier....

And Pittsburgh was in no position to retain Malkin....

The Devils were in no position to retain Elais a couple of summer back....

Sens were in no position to retain Heatley or Spezza....

And so on.

"Facts" one learn here on HF are fascinating.

If one wishes to dream of future Kovalchuk deal, no one is stopping you. But the rationale behind it is wishful thinking at this point.
Actually, the Sens did have to jettison Chara, Havlat, Redden, etc because they cost too much. They did have enough to keep Heatley and Spezza, but only because of all the other players they did away with.

Same goes for the Devils. Sure they kept Elias, but then they lost Rafalski as a result of that decision

Tampa kept Lecavalier, sure. They even kept Richards, Boyle and St. Louis too. That works against your point again however since they then lacked the room for depth and were forced to trade Boyle and Richards as a result.


As for Pittsburgh, it's really too early to tell, sure they're already losing some of their depth but not really enough to matter. Once Malkin's contract kicks in and Staal becomes RFA I think you'll see some issues come up though


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09-13-2008, 07:58 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Paradox View Post
I guess we can expect Crosby to score about 72 points every year, in that case. The two years before that obviously don't mean much, he's likely to get injured every year in the future based solely on last year.
In about 50 games, on pace for 111 points over 82. I don't think it's foolish to expect around 111 points next year. But then again, Crosby is still ONLY 21.

AND Marleau wasn't injured last year.

Next time don't call me dumb.

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09-13-2008, 08:17 PM
  #55
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What is wrong with people on here anymore. These posts are almost funny they are so bad.


I will guarantee you Kovalchuk is not traded from Atlanta for anything less then a player of the same talent level.

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09-13-2008, 08:23 PM
  #56
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For SJ to get Kovalchuk, you're looking at Marleau, Couture and Michalek to start with and yes, I know how good Marleau is, Kovalchuk is just that much better. Can you imagine Thornton to Kovalchuk?


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09-13-2008, 08:26 PM
  #57
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kovalchuk is the 2nd best forward in the world - why would atlanta trade him for table scraps?

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09-13-2008, 09:55 PM
  #58
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kovalchuk is the 2nd best forward in the world - why would atlanta trade him for table scraps?
Uhhh, No

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09-13-2008, 09:56 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Chocolate Skittles View Post
In about 50 games, on pace for 111 points over 82. I don't think it's foolish to expect around 111 points next year. But then again, Crosby is still ONLY 21.

AND Marleau wasn't injured last year.

Next time don't call me dumb.
You aren't dumb. Only your reasoning on this particular point was dumb. You're using seasons Marleau had 8 or 9 years ago as a basis for what to expect out of him next year. Joe Thornton has 756 points in 754 games. Does that mean he's probably going to get around 82 next season? I don't think so. Olli Jokinen has averaged 52 points per 82 games. This is the fallacy of career averages, many players improve significantly in their mid to late 20s, plus the post lockout rules increased scoring by a lot. If you think 55 points is "average" for Marleau you're way off base.

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09-13-2008, 10:04 PM
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Kovalchuk's not going to get traded, imo. If I'm Waddell, I wouldn't entrust my skills in judging talent to make such a monumental trade. They'll likely try to re-sign him and if they fail, they'll let him walk before they make any deal.

If they do make the decision to deal him, they won't get much because nothing in Waddell's history leads me to believe that he can make that kind of a great deal for Kovalchuk. I know what he did with Marian Hossa but in my opinion, he sold him short.

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Old
09-13-2008, 10:08 PM
  #61
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Kovalchuk's not going to get traded, imo. If I'm Waddell, I wouldn't entrust my skills in judging talent to make such a monumental trade. They'll likely try to re-sign him and if they fail, they'll let him walk before they make any deal.

If they do make the decision to deal him, they won't get much because nothing in Waddell's history leads me to believe that he can make that kind of a great deal for Kovalchuk. I know what he did with Marian Hossa but in my opinion, he sold him short.
They're not letting Kovalchuk walk, they'll trade him before they lose him.

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09-13-2008, 10:11 PM
  #62
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hahahaha where do I sign?

Seriously, Atlanta gets RIPPED!

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09-13-2008, 10:33 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Skanker View Post
For SJ to get Kovalchuk, you're looking at Marleau, Couture and Michalek to start with and yes, I know how good Marleau is, Kovalchuk is just that much better. Can you imagine Thornton to Kovalchuk?
To start? If Waddell wants that package or more for Kovalchuk, then he can keep him, and Ilya can keep losing/clawing into the playoffs. The way things are going for the Thrashers, Kovalchuk's going to want out at some point. At what point does he get fed up of playing with Erik Christensen/Eric Perrin/Todd White?

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09-13-2008, 10:47 PM
  #64
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Actually, the Sens did have to jettison Chara, Havlat, Redden, etc because they cost too much. They did have enough to keep Heatley and Spezza, but only because of all the other players they did away with.

Same goes for the Devils....
So?

This thread is based on flimsy assertions that Atlanta is going to be "forced" to move their superstar, their cornerstone player.

My point is that teams typically do anything in their power to retain their top talent. The Sens had to let Chara go? True. And they retained arguably the best 1-2 punch in the Conference as a result. (And you can have Havlat, and Redden is a question mark at this point.)

Periodically, the vultures swoop in and declare a team has no choice other than to give up their top talent. Then, predictably, the same vultures make hysterically low-ball offers for said player.

Exactly what is happening here.

Based on history, I believe that the chances of Kovo going anywhere are slim, unless of course he gives an ultimatum down the road. But it is so premature to be discussing this now. Of course, on HF, panic is forced way ahead of its time. Amusing, as always.

(As for the Pens, since you mentioned them: Odd how fans of inferior teams JUST LOVE to deconstruct the elite teams. Frankly, I doubt Shero is panicked. As long as he has Crosby/Malkin/ and MAF locked up, his team will compete annually, guaranteed.)

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Try harder
OK, I will. How's this...

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JR didn't engineer a cup champion, he lucked his way into it.


Last edited by Trottier: 09-13-2008 at 11:02 PM.
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Old
09-13-2008, 11:01 PM
  #65
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So?

This thread is based on flimsy assertions that Atlanta is going to be "forced" to move their superstar, their cornerstone player.

My point is that teams typically do anything in their power to retain their top talent. The Sens had to let Chara go? True. And they retained arguably the best 1-2 punch in the Conference as a result. (And you can have Havlat, and Redden is a question mark at this point.)

Periodically, the vultures swoop in and declare a team has no choice other than to give up their top talent. Then, predictably, the same vultures make hysterically low-ball offers for said player.

Exactly what is happening here.

Based on history, I believe that the chances of Kovo going anywhere are slim, unless of course he gives an ultimatum down the road. But it is so premature to be discussing this now. Of course, on HF, panic is forced way ahead of its time. Amusing, as always.

(As for the Pens, since you mentioned them: Odd how fans of inferior teams JUST LOVE to deconstruct the elite teams. Frankly, I doubt Shero is panicked. As long as he has Crosby/Malkin/ and MAF locked up, his team will compete annually, guaranteed.)
It's not the same thing, though, because the Pens always had a bright future, whereas Atlanta's is a lot more in question. What kind of good forward support will Kovalchuk be getting in the future? Any other elite players to help him out (at this point, Lehtonen is just an okay goalie and Bogosian is still a prospect)? Will Kovalchuk want to leave? Maybe, maybe not, but nobody knows really except him.

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09-13-2008, 11:08 PM
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It's not the same thing, though, because the Pens always had a bright future, whereas Atlanta's is a lot more in question.
First, Pens "always" had a bright future? Did life begin in 2005?

Second, please clarfiy. Are you suggesting that it would be wise for Atlanta to move Kovo even if they can re-sign him?

If you do, I'm exiting stage right on this conversation. You BUILD around a superstar of his pedigree, not trade him. And in today's parity-induced NHL, a team can rebuild on the fly.

I'm just not ready to ASSume that Kovo will want out. The thread starter does. And the vultures dive in. That's cool. But when Kovo re-signs, will they admit the errors of their ways, as they didn't when Lecavalier, Malkin, et al, re-signed their respective teams never gave a moment's though to moving them, despite the pages of baseless, ridiculous speculation here? Just wondering.

It's instructive, sometimes, to learn from history. And "history" under this current CBA usggests that teams don't let superstars walk.

To be sure, there are exceptions to every rule. But that is what this thread is based upon. And when it is put forth as "fact" - "Let's pull our heads out of the sand and face the harsh reality that Atlanta is in no position to try and keep Kovalchuk in two years when he becomes UFA." - a reality check is in order.

Bottom line: it would be asinine for Atlanta to even consider moving him at this point. "The world may end in two years! Better make a panic move now! Chicken Littles unite!"

I'm not even a Thrashers fans, but best to spare them the thinly-veiled self-centered advice to move their franchise player, under contract for fully another two years, in September '08. It serves them NO PURPOSE whatsoever.

Just my opinion.


Last edited by Trottier: 09-13-2008 at 11:16 PM.
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Old
09-13-2008, 11:13 PM
  #67
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If Ilya wants to leave because of how awful his linemates are, which is a fact. Wouldn't this make his value go up, because of what he would be capable of doing with a real #1 C and a real #1RW?

BTW, lets not poo poo how poorly Eric Christensen is going to do centering Ilya. They haven't really played together yet, and Christensen should get plenty of chances to cash in on Ilya's underrated passing skills.

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09-13-2008, 11:14 PM
  #68
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They're not letting Kovalchuk walk, they'll trade him before they lose him.
Doubtful. This is their sole superstar player. They're going to do everything in their power to keep him, even if that means offering max salary. If Kovalchuk and his agent make it crystal clear that they won't negotiate with the Thrashers at all during his contract year, then there's a possibility of him being dealt.

However, the most likely scenario is that they will keep the Thrashers around and offering as an alternative because it's unlikely that he would get max salary from another place that's going to be a better team. As long as the Thrashers think they have a chance to re-sign him, they'll keep him. That is, of course, the gamble you take with practically any player in their contract year.

If Kovalchuk does publically say he won't negotiate with the Thrashers and will test the market, then he probably will get dealt. However, they won't get much of anything for him because they're forced to deal him or get nothing. They'll get a good package but nothing near what people here are suggesting.

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09-13-2008, 11:18 PM
  #69
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Done

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09-13-2008, 11:41 PM
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I think Kovalchuk will demand a trade within the next 6 months or so.

If that happens it would be a pretty huge game changer and would force Atlanta's hand.

The people who think Waddell has the luxury to just sit around until Kovie's contract year I think are dead wrong.

Kovalchuk is not going to want to go through another rebuild IMO, it's only a matter of time before he becomes unhappy enough to demand a trade. If he stays in Atlanta or even rides out his contract he's going to waste many of his prime years (he's now 26) on a team that basically seems intent on tanking for picks.

When a player demands a trade, there's not a lot a GM can do, doesn't matter if he's your only superstar player. I also predict the return on him isn't going to be nearly as great as some of these proposals. Atlanta will not have much leverage when/if Kovalchuk decides he has had enough.


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09-14-2008, 12:12 AM
  #71
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Think about this. Put yourself in Kovalchuk's shoes. He's already made a ton of money. He just experienced ultimate victory in the World Championships playing on the talented Russian National team. Now he has to go back to Atlanta and play with a bunch of has-beens and never-will-bes. He's been on the team long enough to realize that his GM is an idiot and doesn't know how to build a team. As soon as Waddell gets a half decent team together, he's going to trade a bunch of draft picks for some over the hill rental and screw over his team's future again.

Would Kovalchuk really want to endure the rest of his career in a mostly losing environment just because he's makine 11M a year instead of 8M a year? By the end of his current contract he'll have made 30M or so just in salary, I don't think he's going to care if he makes 8M a year or 11M a year as much as if he's playing with a winning team or a losing team. In two years he'll probably be trading Bogosian for Filip Kuba or something.

The sooner Atlanta trades him, the more they can get. Just look at how every Gaborik and Sedins proposal has people complaining that they're going to be UFAs in one year. Players traded at the deadline, even very good ones, don't get nearly as much as when th ey are traded in the offseason. Just look at Hossa and Campbell. Michalek and Couture is a much better package than either of those players got. Kovalchuk is never going to be worth more to any team in the NHL than he is right now.

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09-14-2008, 12:53 AM
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Think about this. Put yourself in Kovalchuk's shoes. He's already made a ton of money. He just experienced ultimate victory in the World Championships playing on the talented Russian National team. Now he has to go back to Atlanta and play with a bunch of has-beens and never-will-bes. He's been on the team long enough to realize that his GM is an idiot and doesn't know how to build a team. As soon as Waddell gets a half decent team together, he's going to trade a bunch of draft picks for some over the hill rental and screw over his team's future again.

Would Kovalchuk really want to endure the rest of his career in a mostly losing environment just because he's makine 11M a year instead of 8M a year? By the end of his current contract he'll have made 30M or so just in salary, I don't think he's going to care if he makes 8M a year or 11M a year as much as if he's playing with a winning team or a losing team. In two years he'll probably be trading Bogosian for Filip Kuba or something.

The sooner Atlanta trades him, the more they can get. Just look at how every Gaborik and Sedins proposal has people complaining that they're going to be UFAs in one year. Players traded at the deadline, even very good ones, don't get nearly as much as when th ey are traded in the offseason. Just look at Hossa and Campbell. Michalek and Couture is a much better package than either of those players got. Kovalchuk is never going to be worth more to any team in the NHL than he is right now.
You don't know a darn thing about the Thrashers so shut the heck up. Yeah, Enstrom, Little, Pavelec...no future for Atlanta.

You completely embarrassed yourself with the trading Bogosian for Kuba comment.

Try to imagine how Getzlaf would have done on the Thrashers last year, Mr. Know-It-All.

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09-14-2008, 07:19 AM
  #73
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First, Pens "always" had a bright future? Did life begin in 2005?

Second, please clarfiy. Are you suggesting that it would be wise for Atlanta to move Kovo even if they can re-sign him?

If you do, I'm exiting stage right on this conversation. You BUILD around a superstar of his pedigree, not trade him. And in today's parity-induced NHL, a team can rebuild on the fly.

I'm just not ready to ASSume that Kovo will want out. The thread starter does. And the vultures dive in. That's cool. But when Kovo re-signs, will they admit the errors of their ways, as they didn't when Lecavalier, Malkin, et al, re-signed their respective teams never gave a moment's though to moving them, despite the pages of baseless, ridiculous speculation here? Just wondering.

It's instructive, sometimes, to learn from history. And "history" under this current CBA usggests that teams don't let superstars walk.

To be sure, there are exceptions to every rule. But that is what this thread is based upon. And when it is put forth as "fact" - "Let's pull our heads out of the sand and face the harsh reality that Atlanta is in no position to try and keep Kovalchuk in two years when he becomes UFA." - a reality check is in order.

Bottom line: it would be asinine for Atlanta to even consider moving him at this point. "The world may end in two years! Better make a panic move now! Chicken Littles unite!"

I'm not even a Thrashers fans, but best to spare them the thinly-veiled self-centered advice to move their franchise player, under contract for fully another two years, in September '08. It serves them NO PURPOSE whatsoever.

Just my opinion.
Well, considering Malkin and Crosby only started playing after 2005, it's not exactly like the pre-05 team matters to them, does it?

As for trading Kovalchuk, it probably isn't a good idea. Why? Partly because of what you mentioned, although that didn't seem to stop Florida did it? More importantly, though, it's because Atlanta absolutely won't get the value people are expecting. You make it sound like Kovalchuk in Atlanta is written in stone, though, but it isn't. Fact is, there is a possibility he might want out. At that point, they won't be getting full value for him. The way I see it, there are actually 3 possibilities, the third one being the one I prefer:

(1) Option number 1 involves Waddell wooing Kovalchuk with promises of rainbows and lollipops. Kovalchuk re-signs, and they keep rebuilding.
(2) Option 2 involves Kovalchuk balking at Waddell and demanding a trade. At this point, they won't be getting the Michalek+Marleau+Couture packages people are demanding.
(3) Option 3 is the best one for the future of the Thrashers. In this case, Waddell struggles to re-sign Kovalchuk. The team is tanking, and Ilya needs a show of faith from management. The owners, therefore, decide to finally step in and remove Waddell from his position. Kovalchuk re-signs with a new GM in place.

Personally, I can't stand watching Kovalchuk's amazing talent go to waste under such mismanagement. There's nothing more annoying than a GM who doesn't know what's he doing. If I was a Thrashers fan, I wouldn't want to hear the excuses. Zhitnik for Coburn? Letting go of Savard and sigining Holik? Hiring Bob Hartley, who was totally wrong for the team? Just get him out of there before it's too late! Atlanta has a future if they get rid of this guy.

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09-14-2008, 07:49 AM
  #74
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You aren't dumb. Only your reasoning on this particular point was dumb. You're using seasons Marleau had 8 or 9 years ago as a basis for what to expect out of him next year. Joe Thornton has 756 points in 754 games. Does that mean he's probably going to get around 82 next season? I don't think so. Olli Jokinen has averaged 52 points per 82 games. This is the fallacy of career averages, many players improve significantly in their mid to late 20s, plus the post lockout rules increased scoring by a lot. If you think 55 points is "average" for Marleau you're way off base.
That's why I said it was Marleau's career average.

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09-14-2008, 07:54 AM
  #75
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Yes, and Kovalchuk is one catastrophic knee injury from being worth nothing as well.
Coutures had 4 or 5 concussions last couple years and was out a while last season because of it.

Hes already got knocked on the head and lost a few teeth in the pre-season.

Thats why couture may seem a bit of a risk because of his concussion history.

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