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Old
09-13-2008, 02:00 PM
  #1
Silas Robertson
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Speculation

Alright, we only have about a week left until camp opens. I'm as bored as the rest of us, so I thought I'd start this thread to gauge people's opinions.

I know we will probably have a better idea later in the season, but, like I said, I'm bored and I thought this could start some interesting conversation.

So, what does everyone think the salary cap will rise to next season? I've done some guesstimation and number crunching, and it looks like if the cap rises to about $60M, we'll be in great shape for next season. Does anyone think it'll rise that high?

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09-13-2008, 02:13 PM
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Kinguin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PITTisIT View Post
Alright, we only have about a week left until camp opens. I'm as bored as the rest of us, so I thought I'd start this thread to gauge people's opinions.

I know we will probably have a better idea later in the season, but, like I said, I'm bored and I thought this could start some interesting conversation.

So, what does everyone think the salary cap will rise to next season? I've done some guesstimation and number crunching, and it looks like if the cap rises to about $60M, we'll be in great shape for next season. Does anyone think it'll rise that high?
Salary Cap is raising at a annual rate of about 13% average, so far.
I don't believe, personally, that this rate will persist, it will not raise even more, and we're not gonna see it dropping too much.

If it does persist, the cap amount will be around $64M.
IMO, it will raise from 8-10%, which gives us something around $61-62M, but it's just a guess.

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Old
09-13-2008, 08:15 PM
  #3
JTG
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Well in 05-06 off season it raised 11.4%
06-07 raised 12.5%
07-08 raised 11.2%

I'll be conservative and say it will raise 10%. New regime in the White House. Economically things in America are probably going to change alot, effecting the dollar. We haven't had to deal with this yet as far as the salary cap goes so it should be interesting.

Average growth over the last 3 offseasons has been 11.7%. You use that number you are looking at around 63.5. My guess is going with the 10% bump at 62 million

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09-13-2008, 09:18 PM
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Jonjmc
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JTG32005 View Post
Well in 05-06 off season it raised 11.4%
06-07 raised 12.5%
07-08 raised 11.2%

I'll be conservative and say it will raise 10%. New regime in the White House. Economically things in America are probably going to change alot, effecting the dollar. We haven't had to deal with this yet as far as the salary cap goes so it should be interesting.

Average growth over the last 3 offseasons has been 11.7%. You use that number you are looking at around 63.5. My guess is going with the 10% bump at 62 million
The growth numbers are misleading but often quoted. Growth based on what? A random number assigned to be the cap after the lockout? We now know that original number of 39 million was far too low. There are many other factors in play, the last 2 seasons the players invoked the 5% escalator clause and this past year Bill Daly said that 25% of the growth was due solely to the rise in the Canadian dollar. Two new long term Canadian television contracts kicked in these past two seasons.

So now we are fresh out of new Canadian television money, and it seems unlikely that the Looney will continue to rise against the dollar. It is simply not possible to sustain double digit "growth" without a new source of income to the league (major American television contract).

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Old
09-13-2008, 11:04 PM
  #5
Big McLargehuge
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The cap will continue to rise as long as the value of the dollar continues to fall. If the economy levels out then the dollar will level out...there will still be an increase in cap size per year, but it should become closer to 5% per year rather than these 11-13% numbers we've had recently. Assuming a 5% bump is probably a good plan, expecting more may backfire.

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Old
09-14-2008, 08:24 AM
  #6
JTG
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Which is why I quoted the new regime coming in as president in January and a reason we very well might not be getting the hike we want. I think this will be the final year of a big hike. Once the US economy comes back (and I'm confident it will sooner rather than later), we might see very marginal increases from there on out.

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