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2008 Phillies: Part 4. September and beyond

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Old
09-13-2008, 05:49 AM
  #76
BobbyClarkeFan16
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Is it safe to say that if they had a real ball coach there (someone like a Jim Torre), this team would probably be leading the NL East. I swear I look at Charlie Manuel and it's like watching a retarded mule sometimes. The guy just doesn't have a clue. The first thing this off season that needs to happen is that Manuel needs to be bounced.

The next thing the Phillies need to do is find a center fielder who played and produced the way Rowand did. Biggest mistake they made was letting him walk. Even in San Fran, he's probably going to end up with 20 home runs. The Phillies really seem to be missing his spark that he brought.

Finally, I never thought I'd say this, but the pitching hasn't been too bad in Philly this year. I'm really surprised though at how Adam Eaton has dropped off the face of the world. I remember when he pitched in San Diego and he had dominant stuff. Once he got dealt to Texas, he was never the same after that. I know that he had tendon surgery on his pitching hand as well, but that was supposed to help him improve. Maybe he's just done. Not sure about any young arms on the farm that might be ready for a starting role either. I agree with others that pitching you have to develop from within. Free agency isn't the way to go with pitching. However, the Phillies need to shore up their pitching this off season.

What should be interesting is what will become of Ryan Howard? Personally, I think this is his last year in Philadelphia.

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09-13-2008, 08:19 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
Is it safe to say that if they had a real ball coach there (someone like a Jim Torre), this team would probably be leading the NL East. I swear I look at Charlie Manuel and it's like watching a retarded mule sometimes. The guy just doesn't have a clue. The first thing this off season that needs to happen is that Manuel needs to be bounced.
Joe Torre...really? The guy is just as poor a tactical coach as Manuel. Except Torre burns his bullpen to the ground, which Manuel doesn't do. Torre and Manuel have the same exact strengths: players like to play for them.

Manuel has been a big reason why this team has continued to play hard every season here, and I'd argue he's the primary reason they made the playoffs last year. Under someone like Bowa, that team would have given up on the season due to being tired of the tantrums.

The number of managers in baseball who are actually strong enough tactically to equate to any significant number of wins is pretty marginal.

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The next thing the Phillies need to do is find a center fielder who played and produced the way Rowand did. Biggest mistake they made was letting him walk. Even in San Fran, he's probably going to end up with 20 home runs. The Phillies really seem to be missing his spark that he brought.
Rowand is getting grossly overpaid on a career year. Letting him walk was a perfectly reasonable and justifiable decision. Moreover, Victorino has been very good offensively. What the Phils needed was Jenkins to not fail epically, and now you've seen Burrell do his typical August swoon.

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Finally, I never thought I'd say this, but the pitching hasn't been too bad in Philly this year. I'm really surprised though at how Adam Eaton has dropped off the face of the world. I remember when he pitched in San Diego and he had dominant stuff. Once he got dealt to Texas, he was never the same after that. I know that he had tendon surgery on his pitching hand as well, but that was supposed to help him improve. Maybe he's just done. Not sure about any young arms on the farm that might be ready for a starting role either. I agree with others that pitching you have to develop from within. Free agency isn't the way to go with pitching. However, the Phillies need to shore up their pitching this off season.
The Pitching on average has been good, and certainly better than believed. However, similar to the criticism of the offense...it's hit and miss. Starters spent the majority of the year in the bottom half of the NL as far as ERA, which meant when the starter left they were more likely than not trailing the game.

Going to outside sources for pitching is a band aid and doesn't really work out all that well in the end. You need to develop your own for two reasons: 1) it's cheaper and younger pitchers are less likely to break down; 2) when pitchers inevitably leave, you have the ability to replace them cheaply. Every team that has been consistently good has produced their own pitching.

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What should be interesting is what will become of Ryan Howard? Personally, I think this is his last year in Philadelphia.
I would be shocked if he left...they've invested heavily in him as far as marketing, and his numbers are through the roof. He also has further arbitration years.

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09-13-2008, 08:35 AM
  #78
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Might be a blessing for the Phillies that Hamels gets an extra day of rest after going on 3 days of rest. A good omen to him from the baseball gods. Frankly, I think the Phillies will benefit from the extra day to feel good about Thursday.
Hamels hasn't gone on three days rest all year.

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09-13-2008, 08:40 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
Again, all I can say is that he hasn't been scoring runs and with the guys they have behind me, that should not be a problem. I just haven't seen any kind of consistency from him this year. If a guy goes 4-4 one night and then goes 0-4 the next 2 nights, his BA is still .333, but how much has he helped the team?
Again, you're expecting consistency in a sport with a 65% fail rate for simply getting on base? That's absurd. I mean, if this complaint was really valid in any way, wouldn't we see tons of long hitting streaks? Wouldn't we rarely see players wallowing in significant slumps (every single team/player goes through these). Would you like us to call up pitchers and get them to distribute the hittable pitches more evenly between ABs in the schedule?

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And there's always volatility in baseball, that's the nature of the game, it just seems to me that there's been more of it from Rollins this year.
There's volatility, but Rollins is more volatile? Cem on.

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That's definitely true, the problem is that whenever I see him, he just looks totally lost at the plate way too much of the time.

He has 6 HRs and 24 RBI since the break, the situational hitting with him has just been beyond brutal, call it unlucky or whatever you want, but it seemed that every time he had a big AB, it would just be a really ugly one that would end in a K or something.
Is what it is...his production is still pretty exceptional. His production prior to the All-Star break is the only reason we still care about the season, btw. Complaining that he's not threatening 45-50 HR is a ridiculous bar to be grading too.

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That certainly hasn't been true this year for Utley. With Howard I can understand it just because if there's a runner on 2nd or 3rd, the defense can't play the shift as effectively, but with Utley, I just don't know what it is.
Erm, it's not just the shift that matters. A lot of pitchers, for starters, aren't as effective pitching from the stretch than the windup -- they aren't as comfortable. A runner getting held on opens up the right side of the infield some, just as the middle infielders pinching to the bag for the double play opens up even more of the infield. With a runner on 2nd or 3rd the OF may play a bit shallower making it easier for a ball to get over their head.

One of the primary reasons you want a high OBP is because it has direct effect on pitching.

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I don't remember saying that...
You have said you thought they should win 95 games previously, and if you decided that after their slump...then that wouldn't make much sense.

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This is a pretty BS argument IMO. I mean, if the offense wins a game where they were trailing 1-0 or 2-1 in the 6th inning, who's responsible for the win, the offense or the pitching staff?
The team. See how that works out? Everything goes in cycles.

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Actually, the complaint is that the offense is great one night and not so great for the next 3. If you score 10 runs in 1 game and then 3 in the next 3, that's averaging nearly 5 runs per game, but the odds are that your team went 1-3.
Pitching staff does the same stuff man.

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So all these 2-1, 2-0, 3-2, 4-3 losses are because the pitching staff gave up the lead? Damn shame about the Pirates game where the pitching staff gave the Pirates the lead in the 12th inning, absolutely inexcusable.
You win games and you lose games...Phils have also won some games this year where the Pitching staff didn't help 'em out too much.

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On June 13, this club was 7.5 games ahead of the Mets and had a chance to absolutely bury them. They responded with 3 months of .500 baseball.
If they hadn't, they might have a chance at 100 wins...think it's a 100 win team? I don't.

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I mean, yes the Mets definitely got very hot, but the Phils were the ones who allowed them to just keep hanging around in that race.
The Phils were not and are not as good as you seem to think. If they have a good finish and get to 90 wins I'd be pretty impressed with them. 85-88 is what should have been expected from this team..

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If you look at June, July, and August, the pitching on average has been 4th in the league. the offense has been 9th. That's a pretty important 3 month stretch where the offense was below average and the pitching was well-above average.

In my book, that's what it comes down to.
And yet they're third overall in runs...what's that tell you about the offenses of other teams? Would it be great if they were producing like last year? Absolutely. Is making the third best offense in the NL the whipping boy is whining.

They've gotten mediocre starting pitching over the course of the season; good relief over the course of the season; and good, but unlike previous seasons not great offense over the course of the season. They're a team with a realistic shot at 90 wins...they're a good, but not great team. Exactly what those stats would suggest they'd be.


Last edited by Jester: 09-13-2008 at 08:46 AM.
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09-13-2008, 09:02 AM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Again, you're expecting consistency in a sport with a 65% fail rate for simply getting on base? That's absurd. I mean, if this complaint was really valid in any way, wouldn't we see tons of long hitting streaks? Wouldn't we rarely see players wallowing in significant slumps (every single team/player goes through these). Would you like us to call up pitchers and get them to distribute the hittable pitches more evenly between ABs in the schedule?

There's volatility, but Rollins is more volatile? Cem on.
I definitely think Rollins has been more volatile this year. I mean, I gave an example of volatility in the last post. Just a real life example for J-Roll, he had 12 straight games with 1 or 0 hits and then a game with 5 hits and then 3 hits. Streaks like this are natural to a point, but with him, it's pretty much been going on all season.

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Originally Posted by Jester
Is what it is...his production is still pretty exceptional. His production prior to the All-Star break is the only reason we still care about the season, btw. Complaining that he's not threatening 45-50 HR is a ridiculous bar to be grading too.
Utley is never a 40 homer guy, but as I said, I would expect more than 24 RBI in the 2nd half and I really don't think that's unreasonable.


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Originally Posted by Jester
You have said you thought they should win 95 games previously, and if you decided that after their slump...then that wouldn't make much sense.
I said that if you had told me before the season that we'd have the 4th best ERA in the NL, I would have expected 95 wins.

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Originally Posted by Jester
The team. See how that works out? Everything goes in cycles.
If a team wins a 2-1 game, I think the pitching did more to help the victory than the hitting did.

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Originally Posted by Jester
Pitching staff does the same stuff man.
True, but they haven't been volatile to the same extent until recently.

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Originally Posted by Jester
You win games and you lose games...Phils have also won some games this year where the Pitching staff didn't help 'em out too much.
But then they don't bother to win the games where the pitching staff gives it to them on a platter.

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Originally Posted by Jester
If they hadn't, they might have a chance at 100 wins...think it's a 100 win team? I don't.
I don't think it's a 100 win team specifically, but if they win 95 this season, they would win the division not to mention if they had gone up 10 or 11 games on the Mets, that could have broken their spirit. The Phils never crushed the Mets self-belief and they definitely had opportunities to do it.


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Originally Posted by Jester
And yet they're third overall in runs...what's that tell you about the offenses of other teams? Would it be great if they were producing like last year? Absolutely. Is making the third best offense in the NL the whipping boy is whining.

They've gotten mediocre starting pitching over the course of the season; good relief over the course of the season; and good, but unlike previous seasons not great offense over the course of the season. They're a team with a realistic shot at 90 wins...they're a good, but not great team. Exactly what those stats would suggest they'd be.
See, I'd rank Hamels as exceptional, Moyer as very good, Kendrick as adequate, Myers as awful, then exceptional, Eaton not adequate, Blanton as adequate.

I think they've been mediocre to good and I'd rank the BP as higher than good.

And you'd rather make the whipping boy the pitching in a league with staffs like Chicago, the Brewers, Dodgers, D-Backs, and the Cardinals?

I mean, there's basically 2 good offenses in the NL, the Cubs and Mets. The Phils are 3rd by default.

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09-13-2008, 09:06 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by CantSeeColors View Post
Hamels hasn't gone on three days rest all year.
I thought he did. What the hell was he *****ing about going up against the Mets on early rest then?

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09-13-2008, 11:16 AM
  #82
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Utley is never a 40 homer guy, but as I said, I would expect more than 24 RBI in the 2nd half and I really don't think that's unreasonable.
Well...the way he was hitting the first half, he was a 50 HR guy. If he kept up his RBI pace, he would have been on pace for for 120+ RBIs.

You're *****ing about a 2B on pace for 100+ RBIs...you seriously need to get a reality check on production in this sport.

Utley: 7th BA, 1st HR, 1st RBI, 1st OBP, 1st SLG, 1st OPS...

Gimme a friggin break.

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I said that if you had told me before the season that we'd have the 4th best ERA in the NL, I would have expected 95 wins.
You need good starting pitching to win games. The phils were in the bottom half the majority of this year, and as of last check were like 7th. Aka, the definition of mediocre. A great BP is only a weapon with the lead...when you're trailing in games, then the other team can use their BP as a weapon.

You want to bring up situational hitting? Why don't you look at situational pitching, too? Opponents have been more likely to get to use their BP the way they want to this year...which makes it harder to score runs.

Quote:
I don't think it's a 100 win team specifically, but if they win 95 this season, they would win the division not to mention if they had gone up 10 or 11 games on the Mets, that could have broken their spirit. The Phils never crushed the Mets self-belief and they definitely had opportunities to do it.
If you think they should have carried their pace on from the early portion of the season, then you think they should be threatening for 95-100 wins. They're not that good, thus why they've tailed off. The Mets weren't that bad, thus why their record improved.

The crushing of spirits stuff...Do guys getting paid millions of dollars to play a kids game really get their spirits crushed?

Quote:
See, I'd rank Hamels as exceptional, Moyer as very good, Kendrick as adequate, Myers as awful, then exceptional, Eaton not adequate, Blanton as adequate.
All of which comes out to 7th in the NL in starting pitching. Mediocre.

Quote:
I think they've been mediocre to good and I'd rank the BP as higher than good.
BP has been exceptional...but, as noted, situational pitching (aka, where BPs are at their strength) is only a useful thing with the lead or in a tied game.

Quote:
And you'd rather make the whipping boy the pitching in a league with staffs like Chicago, the Brewers, Dodgers, D-Backs, and the Cardinals?
You're missing the entire point. No one is the whipping boy. This team is winning and losing games at a rate EXACTLY as you'd expect them to be losing. They're a good, but not great team, with a shot at 90 wins.

Quote:
I mean, there's basically 2 good offenses in the NL, the Cubs and Mets. The Phils are 3rd by default.
Well, they're 10th in all of baseball (so, upper third and thus a pretty good offense) and have scored more runs than a team like the Yankees. This also speaks to your previous efforts to compare the Phils (and thus NL offenses) to AL offenses like the Red Sox, which doesn't work because the DH being there is a huge factor...they can't be so easily compared because the Pitcher being there is a huge strategic advantage for killing rallies in the NL.

The Mets have 11 more runs than the Phils in 140+ games. Big difference between those two offenses.

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09-13-2008, 11:17 AM
  #83
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I thought he did. What the hell was he *****ing about going up against the Mets on early rest then?
The guy likes to whine a bit, and has a history of fragility.

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09-13-2008, 02:43 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
I thought he did. What the hell was he *****ing about going up against the Mets on early rest then?
They had an off day in between his starts, so rather than giving him the extra day they bumped him in front of someone else.

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09-14-2008, 07:17 AM
  #85
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This will be my 10th Phillies game of the year.
It will be the 6th start for Myers ive seen.
I also had the pleasure of seeing Kendrick suck twice and Eaton suck twice.
I would have finally got to see Hamels this year but the god damn rain.

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09-14-2008, 09:10 AM
  #86
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Phils going after CC during the offseason?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...=.jsp&c_id=phi
Quote:
Sabathia acknowledged that the Phillies have a powerful recruiter in manager Charlie Manuel, who fought to take the then 20-year-old north with the Indians out of Spring Training in 2001.

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09-14-2008, 09:24 AM
  #87
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Phils going after CC during the offseason?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...=.jsp&c_id=phi
I would wager they'll kick the tires, but I can't see them actually landing him given the players they'll be competing with (the Yankees).

Sabathia also makes me nervous because he isn't exactly the body type I expect to have long-term stability as far as health.

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09-14-2008, 09:40 AM
  #88
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This is pretty funny:

Q+A with the Wild Thing.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/...ild_Thing.html
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What did you think of the Joe Carter figurine the Blue Jays gave to fans - the one commemorating "the homer"?

Doesn't bother me. Someone asked if I'd ever do anything with him, and I said, yeah, I'd like to go hunting together.

Would one of you not come back?

Go over there by that deer feeder, Joe.
Quote:
How can I convince you to regrow your mullet and bring back the No Fear headband?

No chance.

What if they win the World Series?

I still have some of those No Fear headbands. You have no shot on the mullet.

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09-14-2008, 01:04 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I would wager they'll kick the tires, but I can't see them actually landing him given the players they'll be competing with (the Yankees).

Sabathia also makes me nervous because he isn't exactly the body type I expect to have long-term stability as far as health.
His body could also help him with duability since he is built so big. It could help or hurt him.
That would eb great if teh Phillies went strong after him in the offseason. it would take a serious bid since I know that the Yankee's and Angels will be elading the bidding. But imagine....

1.Sabathia
2.Hamels
3.Myers
4. Moyer
5. who cares?!?!?!

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09-14-2008, 01:33 PM
  #90
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Man Burrell has been cold as ice lately. At least they got a run I guess.

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09-14-2008, 02:07 PM
  #91
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Ryan Howard! Much needed hit. All tied up 3-3

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09-14-2008, 02:08 PM
  #92
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Howard is having a hell of a September. Let's just get Blanton through another inning and get to that BP.

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09-14-2008, 02:52 PM
  #93
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Pat!

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09-14-2008, 02:59 PM
  #94
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7 to 3 baby

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09-14-2008, 03:06 PM
  #95
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Why the hell is Lidge in the game? I have serious, serious doubts about Manuel's sanity.

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09-14-2008, 03:15 PM
  #96
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Why the hell is Lidge in the game? I have serious, serious doubts about Manuel's sanity.
Because it's September and they have the day off tomorrow. I would have saved him too, but the BP has been coughing up games lately and he didn't want to take any chances. Fair enough.

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09-14-2008, 03:32 PM
  #97
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Because it's September and they have the day off tomorrow. I would have saved him too, but the BP has been coughing up games lately and he didn't want to take any chances. Fair enough.
If it's a 2-run game, I understand that rationale. But it was a 4 run game with no runners on going into the bottom of the Brewers order.

Gotta pick your spots.

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09-14-2008, 04:44 PM
  #98
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If it's a 2-run game, I understand that rationale. But it was a 4 run game with no runners on going into the bottom of the Brewers order.

Gotta pick your spots.
you don't have the luxury of picking your spots with less than 20 games to go and, at that point, 2 games out of the lead for the wild card. i question charlie a decent amount (less each season, but still a decent amount) but i'm still with him on that decision. it doesn't make lidge ineligible to pitch tonight, either.

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09-14-2008, 07:30 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by mm6492 View Post
1.Sabathia
2.Hamels
3.Myers
4. Moyer
5. who cares?!?!?!
Many people care because you don't know when you're going to need him to be more than a 5th starter.

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09-14-2008, 07:42 PM
  #100
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His body could also help him with duability since he is built so big. It could help or hurt him.
That would eb great if teh Phillies went strong after him in the offseason. it would take a serious bid since I know that the Yankee's and Angels will be elading the bidding. But imagine....

1.Sabathia
2.Hamels
3.Myers
4. Moyer
5. who cares?!?!?!
As an outsider i think the Phils should not go for Sabathia. Given the money and length he wants i think it would not be wise to go after him.

I would suggest someone like Jon Garland. I think he would work well with Phils he would also be cheaper and has postseason success!

I would love to see Garland back as White Sox #5 but his agent sorta burned bridges with our organization.

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