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Old
09-15-2008, 11:42 AM
  #1
Sad London Ranger
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Lehman Bros and hockey

the two have precious little to do with one another but indulge me for a moment.
I was one of the most vocal members here believing the KHL would succeed. this morning I stand corrected (I think).

Beside the end to Lehmans another 2 headlines grabbed my attention:

1) "88 killed as Aeroflot plane crashes in West Siberia"......
...experts say inadequate training, ageing planes and cost-cutting contribute to the dangerous conditions of the country's civil aviation........and....the country's oil fuelled economic boom has failed to fund improvements to the infrastructures......

These KHL teams probably have private jets to take them around....or do they?
Honestly I have been flying domestically in Russia and I was thinking things have improved over the past few years but I guess they have not.....

and more importantly:

2)" The various stock market indices in Russia are all down materially since their highs in April/May of this year. The MICEX is down from 1940 to 1138, or 41% in the past five months. The RTS has fallen from 2480 to 1340, or a decline or 46% in that
same period. In monetary terms, Moscow's RTS has lose approximately $108 billion in value since May and money has flowed out of Russia at a heady, and growing
pace. Since July, The FT reports that approximately $920 million has left Russia, having left the stock market firstly.
Further, there are well founded rumours about that several of the "oligarchs" now find themselves in dire straits as margin calls are going out with greater and
greater regularity. We have read that one "mid-level" oligarch has lost $150 million in the stock market in recent weeks, and if a mid-level "oil" has lost that much,
what then of the other larger ones... and what then of those that are his peers. There are reports that Mr. Suleiman Kerimov, one of the largest shareholders in
Sperbank and Gazprom, is in some difficulty, and we have read that Ms. Yelena Baturina, the wife of the Mayor of Moscow, is also in some difficulty. Oleg Deripaska,
ostensibly Russia's richest man, borrowed perhaps $4.5 billion to buy shares in US Rusal, and pledged his shares in Norilsk Nickel. Since then, Norilsk's shares have fallen
from $275/share to something closer to $120. Further, perhaps the biggest name of them all... Vladimir Potanin... who has been in an out of government and
who's "footprint" has been evident for the past decade in all things economic in Russia, finds himself also in trouble. Potanin is Norilsks largest shareholder, and has
been adding to his Norilsk shares as he has tried to fend off Mr. Deripaska's attempts to take over the firm. Clearly, Mr. Deripaska and Mr. Potanin are not as wealthy as they once were... indeed as they were only a few months ago.
We are afraid that this has not been and shall not be pretty... especially after what has happened overnight in the global equity markets"

Crude oil hit 92 bucks today and 77 of that goes to the Russian state in taxes..... so these are sobering moments even for the oligarchs.

So maybe they will not throw their money around as "freely" as they were......
Could Jaromir be soon negotiable to return.....

your London Ranger.

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09-15-2008, 11:51 AM
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The folding of these banks means lots of empty seats rink side, and probably a few more empty luxury suites.

LR,

I was having this conversation with my Dad yesterday. Clearly, the oligarchs have a huge amount of liquid cash, but they have many multiples of that in "theoretical" or paper cash. It's only a matter of time before alternative sources of energy (not just "green" energy but increased gas production in the US and elsewhere) seriously impinge on Russia's dominance in this market.

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Old
09-15-2008, 12:02 PM
  #3
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I thought this had to do with some sort of Lehman Bros hockey team having to disband since the company is cooked. I understand the topic, but making it say Lehman Bros and having nothing to really do with them threw me off.

Sorry if I sound like an a hole

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09-15-2008, 12:10 PM
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The KHL will fail. Economics 101.

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Old
09-15-2008, 12:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Forechecker View Post
The folding of these banks means lots of empty seats rink side, and probably a few more empty luxury suites.
One man gathers what another man spills

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Old
09-15-2008, 12:18 PM
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I think as far as the KHL goes getting Jagr was a huge step to competing with the NHL. But than you see Omsk just fired the coach after 5 games. A few of us on here watched some of those games on here and that team looked crAZY undisciplined.

I dont know enough about the other teams to make an across the board judgment. But from what we've seen the NHL has little to worry about.

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Old
09-15-2008, 12:23 PM
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I hope JJ ws smart enough to ask for a L/C from a bank that will be still around in 3 years!

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Old
09-15-2008, 12:35 PM
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I am so ****ing clueless when it comes to economics.

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09-15-2008, 12:40 PM
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Let me tell you it is as bad as I have seen it in my 52 years of existance!

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09-15-2008, 12:51 PM
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I could care les about Jagr at, but it would be good news on the Cherepanov front if the league doesn't make it.

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Old
09-15-2008, 01:27 PM
  #11
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I am so ****ing clueless when it comes to economics.
it is simple having money = good, not having money = bad.

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Old
09-15-2008, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Happy London Ranger View Post
Let me tell you it is as bad as I have seen it in my 52 years of existance!
I'll be 51 next week and I absolutely agree.

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Old
09-15-2008, 01:44 PM
  #13
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it is simple having money = good, not having money = bad.
Haha, thanks ogie, now I get it!

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Old
09-15-2008, 02:26 PM
  #14
Ola
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Originally Posted by Happy London Ranger View Post
the two have precious little to do with one another but indulge me for a moment.
I was one of the most vocal members here believing the KHL would succeed. this morning I stand corrected (I think).

Beside the end to Lehmans another 2 headlines grabbed my attention:

1) "88 killed as Aeroflot plane crashes in West Siberia"......
...experts say inadequate training, ageing planes and cost-cutting contribute to the dangerous conditions of the country's civil aviation........and....the country's oil fuelled economic boom has failed to fund improvements to the infrastructures......

These KHL teams probably have private jets to take them around....or do they?
Honestly I have been flying domestically in Russia and I was thinking things have improved over the past few years but I guess they have not.....

and more importantly:

2)" The various stock market indices in Russia are all down materially since their highs in April/May of this year. The MICEX is down from 1940 to 1138, or 41% in the past five months. The RTS has fallen from 2480 to 1340, or a decline or 46% in that
same period. In monetary terms, Moscow's RTS has lose approximately $108 billion in value since May and money has flowed out of Russia at a heady, and growing
pace. Since July, The FT reports that approximately $920 million has left Russia, having left the stock market firstly.
Further, there are well founded rumours about that several of the "oligarchs" now find themselves in dire straits as margin calls are going out with greater and
greater regularity. We have read that one "mid-level" oligarch has lost $150 million in the stock market in recent weeks, and if a mid-level "oil" has lost that much,
what then of the other larger ones... and what then of those that are his peers. There are reports that Mr. Suleiman Kerimov, one of the largest shareholders in
Sperbank and Gazprom, is in some difficulty, and we have read that Ms. Yelena Baturina, the wife of the Mayor of Moscow, is also in some difficulty. Oleg Deripaska,
ostensibly Russia's richest man, borrowed perhaps $4.5 billion to buy shares in US Rusal, and pledged his shares in Norilsk Nickel. Since then, Norilsk's shares have fallen
from $275/share to something closer to $120. Further, perhaps the biggest name of them all... Vladimir Potanin... who has been in an out of government and
who's "footprint" has been evident for the past decade in all things economic in Russia, finds himself also in trouble. Potanin is Norilsks largest shareholder, and has
been adding to his Norilsk shares as he has tried to fend off Mr. Deripaska's attempts to take over the firm. Clearly, Mr. Deripaska and Mr. Potanin are not as wealthy as they once were... indeed as they were only a few months ago.
We are afraid that this has not been and shall not be pretty... especially after what has happened overnight in the global equity markets"

Crude oil hit 92 bucks today and 77 of that goes to the Russian state in taxes..... so these are sobering moments even for the oligarchs.

So maybe they will not throw their money around as "freely" as they were......
Could Jaromir be soon negotiable to return.....

your London Ranger.
Another aspect is what there is to gain from spending money on the KHL.

These guys aren't to picky about what they invest in; someone presents a idea and they'll bite if it sounds sexy.

However; invest a ton of money in a soccer team and the opertunitys are endless. Like becomming the president of the USA and owning the team that wins the Champions League is about on par with each other when it comes to making people knowing your name (almost ).

I can't see hockey ever reaching thoose levels. Like invest a ton of money in your KHL team, and you'll play 50 games and some in the Russian city the team plays in will get to now you.

Like only one KHL team will win that league every year -- how fun can it be for the rest of the owners? How fun can it be to "own" a KHL team that sucks 5 years in a row?

Nah, I can't see owners pumping money into the KHL year after year; or atleast not endless amounts of money. You can get a very good and entertaining product in hockey for 20m USD. Thats enough to seperate the KHL from the rest of the league in Europe -- meaning that they'll get some stars from other leagues, and its enough to get some bigger names from the NHL, like 4-5 mayber.

But to take the next step all owners must spend 40m per year more -- and there will basically not be much gain in it really.

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Old
09-15-2008, 02:33 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy London Ranger View Post
the two have precious little to do with one another but indulge me for a moment.
I was one of the most vocal members here believing the KHL would succeed. this morning I stand corrected (I think).

Beside the end to Lehmans another 2 headlines grabbed my attention:

1) "88 killed as Aeroflot plane crashes in West Siberia"......
...experts say inadequate training, ageing planes and cost-cutting contribute to the dangerous conditions of the country's civil aviation........and....the country's oil fuelled economic boom has failed to fund improvements to the infrastructures......

These KHL teams probably have private jets to take them around....or do they?
Honestly I have been flying domestically in Russia and I was thinking things have improved over the past few years but I guess they have not.....

and more importantly:

2)" The various stock market indices in Russia are all down materially since their highs in April/May of this year. The MICEX is down from 1940 to 1138, or 41% in the past five months. The RTS has fallen from 2480 to 1340, or a decline or 46% in that
same period. In monetary terms, Moscow's RTS has lose approximately $108 billion in value since May and money has flowed out of Russia at a heady, and growing
pace. Since July, The FT reports that approximately $920 million has left Russia, having left the stock market firstly.
Further, there are well founded rumours about that several of the "oligarchs" now find themselves in dire straits as margin calls are going out with greater and
greater regularity. We have read that one "mid-level" oligarch has lost $150 million in the stock market in recent weeks, and if a mid-level "oil" has lost that much,
what then of the other larger ones... and what then of those that are his peers. There are reports that Mr. Suleiman Kerimov, one of the largest shareholders in
Sperbank and Gazprom, is in some difficulty, and we have read that Ms. Yelena Baturina, the wife of the Mayor of Moscow, is also in some difficulty. Oleg Deripaska,
ostensibly Russia's richest man, borrowed perhaps $4.5 billion to buy shares in US Rusal, and pledged his shares in Norilsk Nickel. Since then, Norilsk's shares have fallen
from $275/share to something closer to $120. Further, perhaps the biggest name of them all... Vladimir Potanin... who has been in an out of government and
who's "footprint" has been evident for the past decade in all things economic in Russia, finds himself also in trouble. Potanin is Norilsks largest shareholder, and has
been adding to his Norilsk shares as he has tried to fend off Mr. Deripaska's attempts to take over the firm. Clearly, Mr. Deripaska and Mr. Potanin are not as wealthy as they once were... indeed as they were only a few months ago.
We are afraid that this has not been and shall not be pretty... especially after what has happened overnight in the global equity markets"

Crude oil hit 92 bucks today and 77 of that goes to the Russian state in taxes..... so these are sobering moments even for the oligarchs.

So maybe they will not throw their money around as "freely" as they were......
Could Jaromir be soon negotiable to return.....

your London Ranger.
This is all Greek to me, but I honestly don't know jack about economics, a course I am proud to say I avoided at all costs in College. Having said that this whole situation doesn't sound good and this country is really going down the tubes. I think I might start looking into moving to our neighbors up north, i'm not even kidding.

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Old
09-15-2008, 02:42 PM
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Is it live? Or is it Dead?

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09-15-2008, 03:37 PM
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Whats interesting is that countrys with allot of natrual resources are gooing bad -- at a time when natrual resources are more valueble then ever. Like Brasil/India got more growth then Russia, Denmark got more growth then Norway. China is gooing tremendously well -- they have managed to accomplish what Russia have not -- divercify their resources.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Radek27 View Post
This is all Greek to me, but I honestly don't know jack about economics, a course I am proud to say I avoided at all costs in College. Having said that this whole situation doesn't sound good and this country is really going down the tubes. I think I might start looking into moving to our neighbors up north, i'm not even kidding.
If people are really concerned -- how can so much attention be payed on everything else basically then actual politics in the comming election? How can people actually cast their vote on someone only because they want everyone to be able to buy machineguns at Wall-Mart? Or the abortion issue that no matter what always will be a filosopical question in the end (since abortions never will become illigal in all 52 states and anyone could just take a trip to have one). And if it became illigal in 52 states there would be a huge market for illigal abortions. I am actually very skeptical about abortions, but I don't get how it can be a political issue, since people always will have them anyway. Its a non-issue.

I also can't understand why there can't be more talk about "special interests" right now. During the IT crash you could get a listed company -- give it a IT name, and produce your first numbers 16 months after you took over it. Which made it extremely easy to hype a company. On any other stockmarket you always have to produce numbers after at the most 4 month (in US too, but you could get around the quater rule by listing the company outside the US).

Now its the insane loans that where allowed.

Like the 2 flaws, that forced the 2 last crashes, aren't in any way or form new fenomens -- they have caused crashes in other places decades ago. Still "special interests" have managed to keep the system as it was in the US against, or install it again, what must have been against better knowledge on all hands.

I don't get it; how come people doesn't say enough is enough, how can people stand that the guys making the guns are the once pulling the strings when it comes to who and what type of guns that are available. That people who are loaning out the money can set the rules for the mortage market. et c et c et c. Like if you got 3 options when it comes to writing rules for mortages -- one where all interests are considered and the other where only the big banks interests are considered and the third where only the interestes of the highshoots who are looking for fast money on the big banks interests are considered -- it always seems like politicians in the US picks option 3. I just don't get it. I don't get how someone who's biggest trademark is anti-abortion and beeing part of the gun-lobby can get all the attention at a time like this.

I hope that I don't sound condecending -- thats defenitly not my intentions -- I just don't get these issues. I don't even remotely get the thinking.


Last edited by Ola: 09-15-2008 at 03:44 PM.
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09-15-2008, 10:14 PM
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there are only 50 states btw in the United States...thats why there are only 50 stars on the flag

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09-15-2008, 10:30 PM
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Oh c'mon! 52 States? Seriously?

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09-15-2008, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Happy London Ranger View Post
Let me tell you it is as bad as I have seen it in my 52 years of existance!

I'm in your age ballpark and I can say with a fair degree of certainty that the U.S. economy is weaker than at any time since the Great Depression. When the largest banking organizations start folding, some serious ***** is on the horizon.

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09-15-2008, 10:41 PM
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there are only 50 states btw in the United States...thats why there are only 50 stars on the flag
I don't think Ola is from the US, so cut him a break.

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09-15-2008, 10:47 PM
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I'm in your age ballpark and I can say with a fair degree of certainty that the U.S. economy is weaker than at any time since the Great Depression. When the largest banking organizations start folding, some serious ***** is on the horizon.
Bear, Lynch and Lehman are actually on the smaller end of the IB's, no major IB's have fallen yet. Two were absorbed by larger banks in far better position. Not taking away from the severity of what has taken place but its worth noting.

Not to mention our GDP has been up the past two quarters as well.


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09-15-2008, 10:59 PM
  #23
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i know i wasnt saying it rudely just correcting him...lol...sorry if it sounded like i was being rude or something...

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Old
09-16-2008, 12:22 AM
  #24
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there are only 50 states btw in the United States...thats why there are only 50 stars on the flag
yeah but Guam and Puerto Rico are like States. We just don't want to have to redo the flag for those two. and 50 is a nice round number.

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09-16-2008, 02:34 AM
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Let me tell you it is as bad as I have seen it in my 52 years of existance!

Intresting postings, I myself have never paid any attention tho Russias economic state, not like i follow our market, but I myself have never seen anything like this either, analyis say it;s a once in a century event, but i'm not to sure about that since 2002 we have seen poor accounting pratices & scams destroy thousands of working citizens lives, it Started with Enron & Worldcom & now the banks that backed them which are the backbone of our economy are crumbling. It's not over yet.

This is a scary & facinating time to be alive.

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