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Old
09-16-2008, 04:23 AM
  #26
Sad London Ranger
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certainly this mess is far from over...looks like AIG could be next

Why did I bring this issue to the Ranger site? Well I was convinced that the KHL had a shot. I watched the games on Russian TV, the crowds are into it. the TV coverage looks competent, hockey pretty good,
although I can't read the names on the players back quickly enough.

But, Frankly a best of hockey operations are pimples on Russian's oligarchs fat butts. But a pimple can get infected.

One of the biggest problem for any hockey club and any business is cash flow. You need real cash to run the it. A balance sheet is really not going to help you much especially if the banks are tightening their purses. Day in day out, salaries, equipment, fuel for charter flights etc.

Now even Russian share evaluations are considerably lower and the banks will say: sorry mr Oligarch we can't give you an overdraft unless you pay out the difference between the falling asset and your loan you took out to pay for another take over.

And all of a sudden 20-30 million a year budget to run a hockey team becomes a huge drain.To add insult to injury all predictions that gold, oil, nickel will go up in price look dead wrong, and there is far less revenue coming in than initially thought. No doubt based on the local ticket prices the clubs can't afford the players they are signing. It all rests on the egos of the local czars to see a NHL star on the ice for their team.


So I would not be surprised if expensive "assets" such as JJ and Cherepanov would become expendable.

Amazing how quickly things change....


Last edited by Sad London Ranger: 09-16-2008 at 04:29 AM.
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09-16-2008, 07:42 AM
  #27
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certainly this mess is far from over...looks like AIG could be next

Why did I bring this issue to the Ranger site? Well I was convinced that the KHL had a shot. I watched the games on Russian TV, the crowds are into it. the TV coverage looks competent, hockey pretty good,
although I can't read the names on the players back quickly enough.

But, Frankly a best of hockey operations are pimples on Russian's oligarchs fat butts. But a pimple can get infected.

One of the biggest problem for any hockey club and any business is cash flow. You need real cash to run the it. A balance sheet is really not going to help you much especially if the banks are tightening their purses. Day in day out, salaries, equipment, fuel for charter flights etc.

Now even Russian share evaluations are considerably lower and the banks will say: sorry mr Oligarch we can't give you an overdraft unless you pay out the difference between the falling asset and your loan you took out to pay for another take over.

And all of a sudden 20-30 million a year budget to run a hockey team becomes a huge drain.To add insult to injury all predictions that gold, oil, nickel will go up in price look dead wrong, and there is far less revenue coming in than initially thought. No doubt based on the local ticket prices the clubs can't afford the players they are signing. It all rests on the egos of the local czars to see a NHL star on the ice for their team.


So I would not be surprised if expensive "assets" such as JJ and Cherepanov would become expendable.

Amazing how quickly things change....
The government and the economy cannot really afford to let AIG fall. I don't think they are at risk, per say, of going bankrupt, but have to spin off a good deal of "good assets" to raise capital and become a much smaller company. They are the biggest or one of the biggest insurers in the world. I don't think an insurance company has failed since the 1800's.

The fact that Goldman and JPMorgan are or might be making a pool of $70 billion and NYS letting the company borrow $20 billion against its subsidiaries means that the government and the rest of the financial sector realizes that the economy cannot really survive a failure on the level of a company like AIG. No wonder why they were offering the highest interest rates on ther fixed annuities, much more then any other insurer, haha.

Sorry went off on a tangent there haha. I would like to see what happens if things get worse over in Russia and these owners can't afford to pay these contracts (Although I don't really see it happening) and look towards an NHL team to purchase part of the contracts. The NHL would be paying the old KHL contract but could give the player a lower NHL salary, lessening the cap it.

I don't know if that is even legal and if the NHL would allow it, but it could be interesting as things unfold in the coming months.


Last edited by UAGoalieGuy: 09-16-2008 at 07:49 AM.
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09-16-2008, 08:13 AM
  #28
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I'll be 51 next week and I absolutely agree.
It's not bad at all, the only thing you're seeing is a surplus of companies giving money to people who shouldn't be getting it.

In a few years these companies will all be gone and getting 100s of thousands of dollars in credit on a $10 an hour job won't be happening anymore and all will be fine again.

Yes I know it's the big names having trouble now, but no one puts the crappy banks on the news when they fail, banks fail every day. It's just the big names all got sucked into giving money left and right where it shouldn't have been given as well.

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09-16-2008, 08:24 AM
  #29
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With Lehman Bros going down I wonder how this will impact the devils' owner, wasn't he a big deal at Lehman Bros? Wonder if he moved his paper holdings. Would be interesting to here from devil fan who actually may know what the impact will be.

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09-16-2008, 09:09 AM
  #30
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With Lehman Bros going down I wonder how this will impact the devils' owner, wasn't he a big deal at Lehman Bros? Wonder if he moved his paper holdings. Would be interesting to here from devil fan who actually may know what the impact will be.
If I'm correct he left the company in 2004. I don't know what his terms were, I'm sure he's still (or was) receiving some form of deferred compensation, most likely in the form of stock because that is part of Lehman's corporate philosophy. That said even the current executives haven't released any information regarding their stock holdings since January. So it would be difficult to tell this early how damaging it has been to anyone personally without knowing what they've done in the past 9+ months. The monetary value of the CEO holdings, again last accurately known in January, would have depreciated $600 million if he held onto it until today. However that is extremely unlikely.

Here is an article from the WSJ last Friday which discusses the situation regarding employees holdings and Lehman's corporate philosophy of employee ownership and compensation through stock.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122117966831526067

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09-16-2008, 12:56 PM
  #31
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It's not bad at all, the only thing you're seeing is a surplus of companies giving money to people who shouldn't be getting it.

In a few years these companies will all be gone and getting 100s of thousands of dollars in credit on a $10 an hour job won't be happening anymore and all will be fine again.

Yes I know it's the big names having trouble now, but no one puts the crappy banks on the news when they fail, banks fail every day. It's just the big names all got sucked into giving money left and right where it shouldn't have been given as well.
I don't know if you're looking for an opinion vladmyir but since you picked out my post to remark on I'll bring this up---I'm not really sure what the holdings of these investment banks are. I would guess pensions and 401k's are part of it along with the bad mortgages from the housing bubble that set everything off.

Rather than tell you which current presidential candidate's (you'll have to find that out if you're interested) expert economics adviser--a former Texas Senator was up to in the days leading up to the US Senate's christmas recess in 2000 and also in the days leading up to the transfer of power from the Clinton administration to the current one and keeping in mind the off and on shutdowns of government stemming from showdowns between Clinton's administration and the republican majority in congress during that period--there was a need for an omnibus appropriations bill covering various sectors of the federal government at that time. The bill needed to be passed to keep things running. The sleazy Texas Senator snuck a 262 page bill into this massive 11,000 page piece (which the Senators had very little time to scan--not to mention they were in a hurry to celebrate the holidays) of legislation and history was made because it deregulated many areas of our financial markets. Out of all this comes the mortgage crisis we see today. All of a sudden people are buying homes they cannot afford--they are package or bundled into CDO's which have come to stink to high heaven. Moral of the story--there always needs to be regulation and oversight of the banking and investment markets. Letting them have carte blanche to do as they please eventually leads to what has been happening the past few months. With little to no in country manufacturing and industrial infastructure I think we've got our work cut out for us. Just an opinion but we've put almost all our eggs in the financial/service sector of the economy. For me it's gloomy.

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09-16-2008, 02:14 PM
  #32
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You know, my post secondary education was in business...Accounting and I took a few economic courses of course but I really have absolutely no clue what is going on and how serious this is with the Lehman brothers?

Without going into partisan politics, how bad is it and could all of this turmoil have a dasterdly effect on the economies of the world?

Could we really see another depression perhaps?

I figured some of you New Yorker's might know more what is going on versus this Albertan way out in Western Canada.

Take care

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09-16-2008, 02:38 PM
  #33
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You know, my post secondary education was in business...Accounting and I took a few economic courses of course but I really have absolutely no clue what is going on and how serious this is with the Lehman brothers?

Without going into partisan politics, how bad is it and could all of this turmoil have a dasterdly effect on the economies of the world?

Could we really see another depression perhaps?

I figured some of you New Yorker's might know more what is going on versus this Albertan way out in Western Canada.

Take care
The potential in lost jobs between Merril Lynch being bought and Lehman going bust is between 40,000 and 50,000, and I believe those numbers include their worldwide staff. So, from that standpoint, there are lot more people out of work now than there were on Friday. From a macro economic view (and I'm no economist) I think the long-term effect will be tighter regulation on all forms of banking on a global scale. We'll see a lot of small, narrowly focused investment firms pop up, and those might actually help move the markets up radpidly as institutional investors look to recoup their losses using what should be more nimble firms. My guess, in a year this will all be a distant, bitter memory for most of the world.

Short term? Tax roles in NY, Toronto, London and other financial centers will be a lot lower, and that has to have an impact on the quality of life in those cities and states. New York State's economic crises and bduget short-falls just got a lot more acute. Christams is going to be a bit grim this year.

My Dad always said, when banks starting building temples to themselves (big, flashy buildings) it's never a good sign. I know that is simplistic, but certainly there has been a large amount of hubros shown by the major banks over the past year or so.

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09-16-2008, 02:55 PM
  #34
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You know, my post secondary education was in business...Accounting and I took a few economic courses of course but I really have absolutely no clue what is going on and how serious this is with the Lehman brothers?

Without going into partisan politics, how bad is it and could all of this turmoil have a dasterdly effect on the economies of the world?

Could we really see another depression perhaps?

I figured some of you New Yorker's might know more what is going on versus this Albertan way out in Western Canada.

Take care
Well don't feel bad. I have no degree in anything. Just a Postal worker. I do read a lot.

I have my preferences but I'd rather keep partisanship out of it (so I kept names to a minimum in the above post). Even so I think there are some real human villians behind this meltdown. People buying homes that they had no chance of paying off over the lifetime of the loan--thinking in grandiose terms of their house as an investment with an ever rising trajectory in value and not necessarily as a place to live in is what the subprime mortgage crisis is all about. They were fed these ideas by banks (lenders) and the financial houses started buying up these loans (whether good or bad) in vast numbers and bundling them together into CDO's--trying to pass them off around the globe and they've earned a bad reputation over time and so they found out they would have to eat them. I don't know where the bottom is so I cannot tell you what effect in the end it will have here or elsewhere in the world. I'm not sure anyone really has an idea. It's big enough anyway to topple these financial houses that have been around for a long time.

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09-16-2008, 04:57 PM
  #35
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Thanks guys for the insight....so at the bottom of everything, is it really simply just about some greedy people in these companies?

Or is it shady accounting practices? Cooking the books so to speak..

I have to admit, I read a lot also but mainly about history and theology and various cultures...economics simply isn't something I have studied apart from my education days...I know that sounds funny as someone who was trained to be an accountant but to be fair, I havn't worked in my field for years...so I really am quite illiterate!!

I really have no portfolio...just my house is my major investment...I own zilch for stocks.....but I am aware, that this latest collapse could possibly effect all of us.....

Hopefully some good will come out of this...

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09-16-2008, 05:06 PM
  #36
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Devo-

I think abject greed simplifies it too much. I think there are some seriously smart people at these companies who took underestimated the risks they were taking. Of course, their goal was more money, but a lot of these players make way more than they will ever spend. In many cases the motivation is who's balls are bigger? Swing the big deal, make a silk purse out bad mortgage sows ears, and you're a legend.

I have a friend who is one of probably 1,000 "senior managers" at Lehman, and he noticed that last year Lehman added $150B in questionable assets (bad debt, shaky mortgages, etc.). Whomever did that, was probably betting that the mortgage crisis would never reach the state it did. Well, the meltdown DID happen and see where we are now. BUT, if the mortgage meltdown hadn't happened, the deal maker would be a superstar right now.

The thrill is the deal, the dollars are often a nice frosting.

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09-16-2008, 06:14 PM
  #37
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Wow we got a lot of Economic professors up in here! Who wants to help me buy my first house?????

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09-16-2008, 06:30 PM
  #38
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Would love to help, but the fact remains that it will be almost impossible for a first time homeowner. The cards are stacked against you my friend. Good Luck.

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09-16-2008, 06:32 PM
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Would love to help, but the fact remains that it will be almost impossible for a first time homeowner. The cards are stacked against you my friend. Good Luck.
I'm starting to realize this, but if you could elaborate more I would appreciate it. If you don't wanna post plz feel free to PM me.

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09-16-2008, 08:45 PM
  #40
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I don't know if you're looking for an opinion vladmyir but since you picked out my post to remark on I'll bring this up---I'm not really sure what the holdings of these investment banks are. I would guess pensions and 401k's are part of it along with the bad mortgages from the housing bubble that set everything off.

Rather than tell you which current presidential candidate's (you'll have to find that out if you're interested) expert economics adviser--a former Texas Senator was up to in the days leading up to the US Senate's christmas recess in 2000 and also in the days leading up to the transfer of power from the Clinton administration to the current one and keeping in mind the off and on shutdowns of government stemming from showdowns between Clinton's administration and the republican majority in congress during that period--there was a need for an omnibus appropriations bill covering various sectors of the federal government at that time. The bill needed to be passed to keep things running. The sleazy Texas Senator snuck a 262 page bill into this massive 11,000 page piece (which the Senators had very little time to scan--not to mention they were in a hurry to celebrate the holidays) of legislation and history was made because it deregulated many areas of our financial markets. Out of all this comes the mortgage crisis we see today. All of a sudden people are buying homes they cannot afford--they are package or bundled into CDO's which have come to stink to high heaven. Moral of the story--there always needs to be regulation and oversight of the banking and investment markets. Letting them have carte blanche to do as they please eventually leads to what has been happening the past few months. With little to no in country manufacturing and industrial infastructure I think we've got our work cut out for us. Just an opinion but we've put almost all our eggs in the financial/service sector of the economy. For me it's gloomy.
So what you're saying is basically we need the government to tell stupid people not to buy a half a mil house on a 30k a year job....

I don't agree and it will all come out in the wash in the end.

As far as producing nothing and relying on services for our economy. I agree with you and sadly that won't be solved anytime soon and is our biggest problem currently.

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09-16-2008, 09:34 PM
  #41
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I work for a, still standing, financial company and my current understanding of hedge fund investments and currency only investments makes me cringe. Basically what most financial companies and banks have allowed is the following:

Let other companies, at the request of a portfolio manager or super rich client borrow stocks for a limited period of time. They immediately sell these stocks and invest the money into other stocks. At some point though, they will have to sell something to get the money back to buy the stocks back that they borrowed, in order to return them. This is what is know as leverage, because you are investing borrowed money. You are leveraging someone else's money.


This is almost like going to a loan shark and asking for a loan. Then gambling that borrowed money in hopes of making a profit. These companies have been gambling with borrowed money. It worked because they were all betting on the housing industry, until the housing market started to crash.


The problem is that these banks and financial institutions having been borrowing stocks and all sorts of other intruments from each other, and when one of them defaults their is this domino effect that ripples through the industry. Bank A can't pay back the borrowed money from Bank B, and Bank B needed that money to pay back Bank C and so forth. It becomes a real mess.


Things still have to get worse, but eventually the economy will straighten itself out. I have actually been reading how competetive the US is for manufacturing VS other countries now due to the weak dollar and strong government incentives.

Anyway, Let's go Rangers!

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09-17-2008, 02:40 AM
  #42
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So what you're saying is basically we need the government to tell stupid people not to buy a half a mil house on a 30k a year job....

I don't agree and it will all come out in the wash in the end.

As far as producing nothing and relying on services for our economy. I agree with you and sadly that won't be solved anytime soon and is our biggest problem currently.
Encouraging these pipe dreams is the problem. It's not ethical. To go further and to kind of answer Radek's question about buying a house--back in 87 when I bought my home the rule of thumb used by real estate agents and lenders was that the buyer could not afford more than twice his or her current base yearly salary. In other words if you were making $25K you could not afford more than a $50K home. If of course it were two people each making $25K for a total family net base income of $50K a year you could afford up to a $100K.

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09-17-2008, 03:06 AM
  #43
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With Lehman Bros going down I wonder how this will impact the devils' owner, wasn't he a big deal at Lehman Bros? Wonder if he moved his paper holdings. Would be interesting to here from devil fan who actually may know what the impact will be.
He says he's fine. I think this is something where you'd know if things had gone wrong. He's also very rich (was making $30 million a year, so who knows what his parachute was like) and isn't the only owner of the team. (even Lou has amassed a % of the team)

This also isn't something that happened overnight and I'm sure he got out what he could get out. As I said on the Devils board, my concern would be I hope he did everything cleanly.

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09-17-2008, 03:23 AM
  #44
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Things still have to get worse, but eventually the economy will straighten itself out. I have actually been reading how competetive the US is for manufacturing VS other countries now due to the weak dollar and strong government incentives.
Thanks to growth in India and China mainly world economy, besides the financialmarket, is pretty strong all over. Like China is the biggest market in the world and I just heard that they had a growth of 20%.

And its very likely that things will straighten itself out. But we are/have probably been a hairline away from a real recession -- with unemployment numbers up to 15-20% for the worst hit countrys...

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09-17-2008, 11:35 AM
  #45
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I work for a, still standing, financial company and my current understanding of hedge fund investments and currency only investments makes me cringe. Basically what most financial companies and banks have allowed is the following:

Let other companies, at the request of a portfolio manager or super rich client borrow stocks for a limited period of time. They immediately sell these stocks and invest the money into other stocks. At some point though, they will have to sell something to get the money back to buy the stocks back that they borrowed, in order to return them. This is what is know as leverage, because you are investing borrowed money. You are leveraging someone else's money.


This is almost like going to a loan shark and asking for a loan. Then gambling that borrowed money in hopes of making a profit. These companies have been gambling with borrowed money. It worked because they were all betting on the housing industry, until the housing market started to crash.


The problem is that these banks and financial institutions having been borrowing stocks and all sorts of other intruments from each other, and when one of them defaults their is this domino effect that ripples through the industry. Bank A can't pay back the borrowed money from Bank B, and Bank B needed that money to pay back Bank C and so forth. It becomes a real mess.


Things still have to get worse, but eventually the economy will straighten itself out. I have actually been reading how competetive the US is for manufacturing VS other countries now due to the weak dollar and strong government incentives.

Anyway, Let's go Rangers!
Good old derivatives. One of the main reasons why we are in this mess, along with new accounting standards that state that a value has to be put on these things somehow haha (Which is close to impossible). I also work for one of the still standing financial institutions who is constantly in the news about gobbling up other banks.

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09-17-2008, 11:57 AM
  #46
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The thrill is the deal, the dollars are often a nice frosting.
Which is alot scary to think about. But really, this is all about greed.

Now the federal bailout starts. Socialism for the rich, I'll remember that come November.

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09-17-2008, 01:46 PM
  #47
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There is merit to what Vladmyir says about not being 'stupid' but a lot of ordinary people were and got blasted in the subprime mortgage mess. They stand to lose everything--to have to start from square one all over again. Those aren't (at least as of now) the people who are going to be saved. The govt. will try to save the financial houses that marketed or traded on all those bad loans.

I really don't like the way our economy is set up. We have become a nation of borrowers and spenders--not producing enough or saving enough, chasing debits and credits all around the globe. Manufacturing and Industrial concerns increasingly moving jobs offshore. We need to bring them back because we need more diversification--because even in a globalized world you have to be self sufficient. Population projections as well--we reached 300 million in '06--Pew Research Center has us hitting 400 sometime around 2035 and 438 by mid century. That increasing population is not necessarily a bad thing--but it does mean we are going to need to create millions of jobs--not have static job growth or net job loss--so exporting them will only make things worse and worse. Basically we need leadership with some vision of the future. There's been a call out for bringing up a generation of engineers. To do that we need to make health care and education affordable and we have to make a sharp turn towards alternative energy solutions because we do not have anywhere near the oil resources to match our consumption. Much needed infastructure--roads, bridges etc. to be replaced.

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09-18-2008, 02:05 AM
  #48
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Just to add for those wondering how bad this may be--I believe I heard Chris Matthews say yesterday that the US economy has lost a trillion dollars in five days.

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09-18-2008, 04:25 AM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Devonator View Post
You know, my post secondary education was in business...Accounting and I took a few economic courses of course but I really have absolutely no clue what is going on and how serious this is with the Lehman brothers?

Without going into partisan politics, how bad is it and could all of this turmoil have a dasterdly effect on the economies of the world?

Could we really see another depression perhaps?

I figured some of you New Yorker's might know more what is going on versus this Albertan way out in Western Canada.

Take care
You ain't seen nothing yet my friend......
Can you imagine the world is worried about the financial strength of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
this is not the world we knew, Merrill, Lehman folding on the same day? Is this business as usual????

Can you imagine Chinese or Saudi governments buying GS and MS. Can the US continue to bail these guys, and fight two wars at the same time? what happens if the russians and OPEC decide to tighten the the production to see us squirm? Sarah Palin's puddle of oil in Alaska won't do us much good.

My opininon on this is that its the long term aftermath of 9/11. Rather than letting the world slip into a recession the US Gment urged greenspan to find ways to stimulate the economy..... that ment doing things a prudent banker wouldnt' and keep our fingers crossed. It was unchartered territory. We upset the laws of financial physics.....now the goose is cooked.

Also after the great depression they split banks and investment banks. After 80 years we have come back full circle. Banks are back owning investment bankers.Go figure.

So Depression is nigh.....hold on to your hat. But at least we have Ranger season to
worry about.


Last edited by Sad London Ranger: 09-18-2008 at 04:44 AM.
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09-18-2008, 04:27 AM
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a trillion here a trillion there and all of a sudden we are talking serious money...

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