It seems very possible that Greene signs a long term deal with the Kings after the first 20 games of the season. 5 years 15 million is whats speculated.
Ok, seriously folks. You can say Greene is a #5-6 guy on a good team all you want. Fact of the matter is he is not a 'good' team, he IS our #2 guy behind Johnson and there are no shut-down dmen grabbing at his heals. Hickey, Voinov, Martinez, all puck movers, not shut down dmen. We can't have a top 4 full of smallish puck movers.
So is Lombardi supposed to say "Look Matt, we like you. We traded for you, we made you an alternate captain, and we want you around a long time. However, though you are OUR top pairing guy, you wouldn't be San Jose's, therefore I want to pay you like you're on San Jose like the bottom pairing dman you really are, though you need to be good enough to be our top pairing dman until I can replace you. Now, sign on the dotted line please. Fresca?"
Ok, seriously folks. You can say Greene is a #5-6 guy on a good team all you want. Fact of the matter is he is not a 'good' team, he IS our #2 guy behind Johnson and there are no shut-down dmen grabbing at his heals. Hickey, Voinov, Martinez, all puck movers, not shut down dmen. We can't have a top 4 full of smallish puck movers.
So is Lombardi supposed to say "Look Matt, we like you. We traded for you, we made you an alternate captain, and we want you around a long time. However, though you are OUR top pairing guy, you wouldn't be San Jose's, therefore I want to pay you like you're on San Jose like the bottom pairing dman you really are, though you need to be good enough to be our top pairing dman until I can replace you. Now, sign on the dotted line please. Fresca?"
Seriously...
I see what you are saying....but will he be the Kings top pairing guy in 3 years? Over Doughty, Johnson, Teubert and Hickey? Because then you have to look at having a 5-6 defenseman making $3 million or try to trade him. But if he is going to be a 5-6 defenseman on most other teams it will be hard to move his contract.
Why? Greene has not impressed me at all. We may not have better options now but I would hope in a year or two we do. I guess it depends how much he's getting but there are a plenty of Matt Greene level players out there many still tolling in the AHL.
Update 5 year 14.75 million $2.95 mil. That's Crazy - If I'm Dustin Brown I want my contract renegotiated.
So that's Brown, Kopitar, Sully, Stoll, and Greene all locked up, with Doughty, Simmonds, and Moller all on the first year of their ELCs, and Preissing and Zeus on the second year of their respective four year deals. Frolov on his second to last year of his deal.
Mental math real quick, for the next three years, at least...
Kopitar - 6.8
Brown - 3.1
Sully - 2.9
Stoll - 3.6
Frolov - 2.9
Greene - 2.9
Zeus - 4
Preissing - 2.75
Moller, Doughty, Simmonds - 1 each
So that's a core with an approx. combined cap hit of roughly 34 million. Assuming Johnson gets overpaid with something like 5 per, that still puts us under the cap floor with 8 forwards and 4 defensemen locked up.
Not bad.
I'm worried DL is doing this at the wrong time. With the economy the way it is, I don't see the cap going up to 60-63 million as a previous poster suggested, I'm worried about it staying above 50 million. I think the contract is for too long in this case.
Do you guys remember how terrible O'Donnell was when he broke into the league for LA?
Greene has already shown more promise and better play at 23 years of age during a playoff Cup-run and then the following full season than O'Donnell did up until probably 97-98, at which time OD was 26....Greene is still only 25.
I think they are similar players with Greene having more potential than O'Donnell ever had. If he reaches that potential then yes, he's probably a solid #4 guy as I view OD in his prime as a solid #5 on a contender, although he played very well with Pronger and was the #4 on the Ducks championship squad I believe. If he doesn't reach it then he probably settles in eventually at an O'Donnell level while contributing leadership and toughness along the way.
It's too much money next season most likely and possibly the year after although I do feel that he will be market value in the 2nd year of this deal. The intangibles are through the roof with Greene and it looks like we know who the C's and A's will be for the next 6 years.
Let's take a look at the current defense and the future though:
Staying 5+ years (probably): JJ/Greene/Doughty
Gone in 2: Preissing
Gone in 1: O'Donnell
In the wings: Hickey/Teubert/Martinez/Voynov/Campbell/Quincey/Piskula etc...
I see 3 spots available in 2 years. I think Hickey is in next year (maybe Martinez) to take the spot vacated by OD. That leaves two spots left in two seasons for all of these guys to battle it out for and Quincey might impress enough that he becomes a regular before these spots even open up.
Bottom line is that Lombardi is positioning himself to have the chips he needs to pull off a major deal in the next 2-3 years if said deal helps put the team over the top in his opinion. It's fantastic to see this all coming together but don't get too attached to all of our top d-prospects because they are not all going to be Kings in the NHL.
I see what you are saying....but will he be the Kings top pairing guy in 3 years? Over Doughty, Johnson, Teubert and Hickey? Because then you have to look at having a 5-6 defenseman making $3 million or try to trade him. But if he is going to be a 5-6 defenseman on most other teams it will be hard to move his contract.
Well a lot of it does depend on Tuebert. Hickey can't take Greene's spot simply because Hickey, while more gifted, can't do what Greene does. Tuebert is really the only other guy like Greene in the pipeline, except for Bagnall and Piskula, but neither of them will likely ever reach Greene's level, even if that level is ultimately a solid bottom pairing guy. Will Tuebert be ready for top minutes in 3 years? Maybe. More likely Tuebert goes to Manchester next year and comes in to a bottom pairing role for a year or two on the Kings. By that time Greene's contract will be one or two years away from being up. He will be older, be a true veteran in terms of games played. A leader with playoff experience (intangibles cost money too) and if need be won't be terribly hard to trade with most of his contract already used up.
I see the future of the Kings D (~3 years form now) to be:
Johnson-Greene
Doughty-Tuebert
Hickey-Voinov
or some combo of that.
Perhaps
Doughty-Johnson
Hickey-Greene
Voinov-Tuebert
Hickey and Tuebert also won't start their ELC's until next season. So they will both be minimally paid up until the last year of Greene's contract.
Bottom line is that Lombardi is positioning himself to have the chips he needs to pull off a major deal in the next 2-3 years if said deal helps put the team over the top in his opinion. It's fantastic to see this all coming together but don't get too attached to all of our top d-prospects because they are not all going to be Kings in the NHL.
That is the thing. For all of the defending of the Hickey pick by people on these forums I can see him having the highest trade value. Could you imagine after pulling a WTF out of his hat at the draft Dean trading Hickey for a forward or even worse....draft picks?
I see the future of the Kings D (~3 years form now) to be:
Johnson-Greene
Doughty-Tuebert
Hickey-Voinov
or some combo of that.
Perhaps
Doughty-Johnson
Hickey-Greene
Voinov-Tuebert
Hickey and Tuebert also won't start their ELC's until next season. So they will both be minimally paid up until the last year of Greene's contract.
In both of your examples you have no Harrold, no Martinez and no Quincey. I think at least one of those players will be more valuable than Greene will. So do the Kings trade away a better defenseman in order to keep Greene in the top 4?
Yeah, I'm wondering what games some people have been watching. Greene has been very effective in my opinion. There's a reason we haven't seen a lot of quality chances in the slot or off of rebounds, and a big reason is because Greene pushes everything and everyone to the half-wall and clears out the rebounds. He's made some mistakes, and we haven't seen any truly crushing hits yet, but everytime I see a guy try to walk in front of the net and Greene is on the ice, he pushes that guy back to boards. He's not a great puck mover or stripper, but he knows how to get in lanes, block shots and suffucate the offense. Even against San Jose, they got tons of shots, but most of them were from the outside (sadly that just happens to be Labs' weakspot). Keeping the crease clear is worth 2 million on it's own, add it the leadership skills and the fact that he will probably continue to steadily improve like he has his whole career and he's worth just under 3 million.
People also worry about FA's not wanting to sign here. Well a guy playing just 3 games with the team and be willing to lock himself into for 5 years based on that is the kind of thing that will help to attract FA's as well as lock up our own players.
edit: When you write the checks you can complain about how much he is paid. This contract will not affect our cap status now or in the next few years. If it does turn out to be a problem it won't happen until the final year or two of the contract. God forbid we be in Detroit's situation with too many defenseman and not enough cap room... looks to really be hurting them.
In both of your examples you have no Harrold, no Martinez and no Quincey. I think at least one of those players will be more valuable than Greene will. So do the Kings trade away a better defenseman in order to keep Greene in the top 4?
Out of Harrold, Martinez and Quincey only Quincey looks to play a shut down role. Harrold looks like a child. Martinez is supposed to be a two-way guy. We need shutdown dmen too! Who else, besides Greene and Tuebert do we have to fill that role???
We need AT LEAST two of those types of dmen, if not 3. Like I said, Bagnall and Piskula are the only other two I can think of who could possibly fill this role, and I don't think ANYONE can make the argument that that either of those guys is as good as Greene.
And yes, at some point we will have to trade away a defenseman. That's the idea of stockpiling the talent, so that we have options. We let Hickey, Voynov, Harrold, Martinez and maybe Drewiske and Quincey fight it out for the next few years, then we trade the weaker links for more picks so that we can refresh the system so that in 4 or 5 years when we can't afford them all anymore, we have cheap talent waiting in the wings.
Do you guys remember how terrible O'Donnell was when he broke into the league for LA?
Greene has already shown more promise and better play at 23 years of age during a playoff Cup-run and then the following full season than O'Donnell did up until probably 97-98, at which time OD was 26....Greene is still only 25.
Please.
During the Oilers' cup run Greene alternated with Tarnstrom as the teams' 7th defenseman. He averaged less minutes per game than any other Oiler Dman.
Just because MG has looked slightly better then Sean O'donnel at the same age does not justify this ultra risky contract.
Greene is the Armstrong of defensemen.
If Greene doesn't step up his play big time, this going to be a terrible contract.
People also worry about FA's not wanting to sign here. Well a guy playing just 3 games with the team and be willing to lock himself into for 5 years based on that is the kind of thing that will help to attract FA's as well as lock up our own players.
edit: When you write the checks you can complain about how much he is paid. This contract will not affect our cap status now or in the next few years. If it does turn out to be a problem it won't happen until the final year or two of the contract. God forbid we be in Detroit's situation with too many defenseman and not enough cap room... looks to really be hurting them.
In one paragraph you talk about free agents wanting sign in LA and in the next one you talk about it not affecting the Kings cap next year. If the Kings want to have enough room to sign free agents next year then Greene's contract definitely will affect Dean's ability to sign someone.
