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Hits and Misses - #18 overall draft picks over the years..

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07-20-2004, 09:46 PM
  #1
db23
 
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Hits and Misses - #18 overall draft picks over the years..

Looks like there is a better than 50% chance of getting a decent player at that spot. Going back to 1980, 14 players taken at that slot qualify as legitimate NHLers, while 10 never made it for more than a cup of coffee.

The hits include Barry Pedersen (1980), a great young player until injuries shortened his career. He was the guy that the Canucks traded Cam Neely and a #1 overall draft pick for.

Ken Daneyko (1982) hung around for 20 years and 1300 NHL games.

Glen Murray (1991) Solid as they come. This is what I would hope for Chipchura.

Jason Smith (1992) Another honest Daneyko type defenseman.

Petr Sykora (1995) A guy who was rated highly at the beginning of the year and slipped due to injury.

Dmtiri Kalinen (1998) I think the trick si to use the pick to take a stay at home defenceman.

Brooks Orpik (2000) Jury is still out on Orpik, but he looks like he will play for a few years. The last three are too young to rate, Jens Karlsson, Denis Grebeshkov, and Eric Fehr.

The turkeys include Mikael Holmqvist (probably), a 1997 pick who showed up in N.A. for a partial NHL season at the age of 24, Matt Higgins (uh oh, Montreal chooses two way centre from the WHL in 1996), Jesper Mattson (1993), stay away from thsoe Swedes, Jason Miller (1989) another WHL centre, Rob Cimetta (1988), Ryan Stewert (1985) fiesty WHL winger. A few unremarkables, including Brad Brown (1994) by the Habs, although he is still just 28 and could be around for awhile.

Can't find any great lessons in there. Luck probably plays a big part.

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07-20-2004, 10:52 PM
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RE-HABS
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There have been a lot misses at #1 too, so you can't judge a pick at a certain #.

Lots of the final round picks have bigger and better careers than a lot of 1st round can't miss players.

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07-20-2004, 10:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RE-HABS
There have been a lot misses at #1 too, so you can't judge a pick at a certain #.

Lots of the final round picks have bigger and better careers than a lot of 1st round can't miss players.
Chipchura should be a solid NHL player, no matter what. I see him making the NHL.


BTW, your avatar is misleading. I'm pretty sure that Andrew Raycroft was the rookie of the year...

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07-20-2004, 11:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 19bruins19
BTW, your avatar is misleading. I'm pretty sure that Andrew Raycroft was the rookie of the year...
According to the votes of the media yes Raycroft won the Calder.

But according to the votes of other NHL players Ryder was the TSN (sporting news) Rookie of the Year. That is what his avatar is saying and recognition from your peers is far more valuable IMO.

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07-20-2004, 11:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beakermania
According to the votes of the media yes Raycroft won the Calder.

But according to the votes of other NHL players Ryder was the TSN (sporting news) Rookie of the Year. That is what his avatar is saying and recognition from your peers is far more valuable IMO.
You have to admit that Raycroft and Ryder will be two amazing players in the future

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07-20-2004, 11:38 PM
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At no point did i downplay Raycroft's accomplishments this season, as they were great, and yes i think he will be a very good goalie in the future.

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07-21-2004, 12:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 19bruins19
You have to admit that Raycroft and Ryder will be two amazing players in the future
Yep..the future looks pretty bright for 2 of these guys.

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07-21-2004, 12:58 AM
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And here's hoping the two can have a few more playoff battles in the near future

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07-21-2004, 01:15 AM
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This was an interesting thread but I don't believe at all in the pick order science. I just hope hard Chipcura will turn out to be a good NHLer somedays like I do for every Habs prospects.

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07-21-2004, 01:31 AM
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Well, I didn't mean to suggest there was any science to it. When you have players like Petr Sykora and Matt Higgins being taken 18th overall in back to back drafts, there is obviously a huge range of possibility as to how the pick will turn out. Overall the players taken at the #18 spot over the years (not counting recent ones) averaged about 500 NHL games over their careers. For whatever that is worth. The "safe" picks, big hardworking team players without exceptional puck skills (like Ken Daneyko), seemed to enjoy the most longevity overall. Chipchura fits that mold at least.

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07-21-2004, 01:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by db23
Looks like there is a better than 50% chance of getting a decent player at that spot. Going back to 1980, 14 players taken at that slot qualify as legitimate NHLers, while 10 never made it for more than a cup of coffee.

The hits include Barry Pedersen (1980), a great young player until injuries shortened his career. He was the guy that the Canucks traded Cam Neely and a #1 overall draft pick for.

Ken Daneyko (1982) hung around for 20 years and 1300 NHL games.

Glen Murray (1991) Solid as they come. This is what I would hope for Chipchura.

Jason Smith (1992) Another honest Daneyko type defenseman.

Petr Sykora (1995) A guy who was rated highly at the beginning of the year and slipped due to injury.

Dmtiri Kalinen (1998) I think the trick si to use the pick to take a stay at home defenceman.

Brooks Orpik (2000) Jury is still out on Orpik, but he looks like he will play for a few years. The last three are too young to rate, Jens Karlsson, Denis Grebeshkov, and Eric Fehr.

The turkeys include Mikael Holmqvist (probably), a 1997 pick who showed up in N.A. for a partial NHL season at the age of 24, Matt Higgins (uh oh, Montreal chooses two way centre from the WHL in 1996), Jesper Mattson (1993), stay away from thsoe Swedes, Jason Miller (1989) another WHL centre, Rob Cimetta (1988), Ryan Stewert (1985) fiesty WHL winger. A few unremarkables, including Brad Brown (1994) by the Habs, although he is still just 28 and could be around for awhile.

Can't find any great lessons in there. Luck probably plays a big part.
I think the science of drafting is as much talent as it is character...anyhoo, that's what I've learned by watching AS's career.

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07-21-2004, 09:44 AM
  #12
Jacques Strappe
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1990
18th - Vancouver - Shawn Antoski
19th - Winnipeg - Keith Tkachuk
20th - New Jersey - Martin Brodeur
21st - Boston - Bryan Smolinski

Wonder who Vancouver's head scout was??

A number of decent players were drafted in later rounds in 1990:
Slegr(23), Simon(25), Potvin(31), Weight(34), Sanderson(36), Kozlov(45), Zubov(85), York(129), Lang(133), Bondra(156)....these are just some of them.

Point being that there is no way of telling if your #18 (or your #1 for that matter) is going to pan out. In hindsight the nucks would have taken any of these other players listed, but that's the way the puck bounces.

As an aside, 1990 wasn't exactly a stellar draft year for the Habs: who was head scout for the Habs at that time, geez

12 R Turner Stevenson
39 R Ryan Kuwabara
58 C Charles Poulin
60 R Robert Guillet
81 L Gilbert Dionne
102 C Paul DiPietro
123 C Craig Conroy
144 C Stephen Rohr
165 C Brent Fleetwood
186 D Derek Maguire
207 Mark Kettelhut
228 D John Uniac
249 Sergei Martinyuk

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07-21-2004, 11:32 AM
  #13
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[QUOTE=

As an aside, 1990 wasn't exactly a stellar draft year for the Habs: who was head scout for the Habs at that time, geez

12 R Turner Stevenson
39 R Ryan Kuwabara
58 C Charles Poulin
60 R Robert Guillet
81 L Gilbert Dionne
102 C Paul DiPietro
123 C Craig Conroy
144 C Stephen Rohr
165 C Brent Fleetwood
186 D Derek Maguire
207 Mark Kettelhut
228 D John Uniac
249 Sergei Martinyuk[/QUOTE]

Actually, that isn't bad. Studies show that an NHL team averages around 1.5 NHL players per draft. There are two long term NHL players there (Stevenson, Conroy) as well as a couple of short termers (Dionne, DiPietro). Montreal draftees will end up with around 2,000 NHL games overall, which is better than average.

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