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2003 Draft Revisited

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01-09-2009, 06:03 PM
  #1
Quiet Robert
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2003 Draft Revisited

It's been 5 1/2 years since one of the deepest drafts in history, so I figured it was a good time to take a look back and analyze how the Habs did.

*I originally credited the work to the wrong poster. That's my bad. The Falconer is the one who came up with the analysis. He is a poster here on HF and also has a very interesting blog about the Thrasher's success at the draft.

I'll give my own breakdown and then use The Falconer's method for analyzing drafts. It's still a little early to make this method definitive, but it is definitely an interesting way of looking at performance at the draft table. The Falconer is a poster and fan of Atlanta and has this blog: http://thrasherstalons.blogspot.com/...in-review.html

The Habs had a total of 11 picks in the 2003 draft. Of note, this draft still had 9 rounds (before the NHL went to 7 in 2005.) The Habs have 3 are currently full time NHLers and 1 seems to have a promising future. So 4/11 gives us a success of 36%, but we can get more detailed than that.

Round Pick Name
1 10 Andrei Kostitsyn
2 40 Corey Urquhart
2 61 Maxim Lapierre
3 79 Ryan O'Byrne*
4 113 Corey Locke
4 123 Danny Stewart
6 177 Christopher Heino-Lindberg
6 188 Mark Flood
7 217 Oskari Korpikari
8 241 Jimmy Bonneau
9 271 Jaroslav Halak

I won't spend much time on the busts, but rather focus on out picks.

Andrei Kostitsyn: I get the impression this will be a pick that Hab fans argue over for years to come. A top 10 pick in a deep draft tends to have that effect. It's easy to look back and say the Habs could have had X, and adding M.Richards or Ryan Getzlaf to the current Habs lineup really helps, but if we instead focus on what we got, we're probably again going to have some debate. For me, the more I watch him the more I get the feeling this guy is Kovalev 2.0. He's got so much natural talent that you just want him to dominate, but I don't think he has the hockey sense to be an elite player. Still, he does have 35 goal potential, and the next 2 and half seasons will be huge in determining where we slot him. As it stands, we got a solid top 6 forward who is still developing and has already shown 25g 25a potential.

Maxim Lapierre: If he continues the way he is going, this is a tremendous pick. Who would have thought Maxim Lapierre had this much offensive potential? Still needs to work on his playmaking, but 20g in a good year doesn't seem as ludicrous as it once did. Based on The Falconer's work, I'd say that Lapierre's success makes the Urquhart pick less of a waste.

Ryan O'Byrne: Struggled mightily this year, but has the size to be an imposing NHLer.

Jaroslav Halak: Showing he can play at the NHL level. May not be a no.1 but is proving he is a solid backup. This is the definition of a late round steal.

Statistical Analysis of the Draft

Using The Falconer's work we can see how much a pick is worth based on the strength of the draft. Here is the breakdown based on the probability of each round producing an NHLer. For this work I'll only go by full-time NHLers (so guys like O'Byrne wouldn't count). It's for this reason that we would need another season or so to fully flesh out the 2003 draft. Essentially what's been done is determine the probability of each round yielding an NHL player based on the results from that round. The top 10 picks were all NHLers; for 2003 this means that picks 1-10 had a probability of 1.00. Picks 11-20 had one bust (Jessiman) had thus had a probability of 0.90...and so on and so forth until the 9th round. (Yes it did take a ton of time, but credit goes to The Falconer for creating this method.)

Picks-Probability (For the 2003 Draft)
  • 1-10 1.00
  • 11-20 0.90
  • 21-30 0.70 (Could be 0.90 soon enough)
  • Round 2* 0.297 (11 NHLers out of 37 picks)
  • Round 3** 0.156 (5 NHLers out of 32 picks)
  • Round 4 0.05 (2 out of 34)
  • Round 5 0.13 (4 out of 30)
  • Round 6 0.10 (3 out of 29)
  • Round 7 0.129 (4 out of 31 picks)
  • Round 8 0.129 (4 out of 31 picks)
  • Round 9*** 0.13 (4 out of 30)

*Round 2 has a solid number of players not yet estbalished but who have played in the NHL. They are not counted (Colliton, Klein, Jacques etc...)

** O'Byrne is in this group and could soon make the jump.

*** For rounds 4-9 there is still much to be decided, so the numbers may not be 100% accurate, but they are close to most other draft results.

Conclusions:
The first thing that stands out is that in rounds 4+ the 2003 draft was almost identical to other drafts. That is to say, that about 10% of the picks, or 3-4 players per round, became NHLers. Essentially, if The Falconer's results hold up over time (he only has 1999-2002 on his blog) then that means that the value of picks in rounds 4-7+ is virtually identical, which is very, very interesting when it comes time to deal picks and/or move up in the draft.

How did Montreal do?

Total value of Montreal's picks: (Add the probability of all Montreal picks)
Rnd 1=1.00
Rnd 2= 0.297
Rnd 2= 0.297
Rnd 3=0.156
Rnd 4=0.058
Rnd 4= 0.058
Rnd 6=0.13
Rnd 7=0.10
Rnd 8=0.129
Rnd 9=0.13

Total Value of Picks: 2.355
Total NHLers: 3.5 (I'll count O'Byrne as 0.5)
Overall with O'Byrne: +1.145 (This seems to generally indicate a successful draft)
Overall without O'Byrne: +0.645 (Probably an average draft.)

Kostitsyn is a success, (1=1.00) but this is where statistical analysis fails, as obviously debates will continue to swirl around the pick.

So, even by "only" getting Maxim Lapierre in the 2nd round, the Habs still come out on top statistically in that round. Personally I'm loving the pick. A gritty 3rd/4th liner with solid offensive potential and propensity to drive players off their game can make up for the miss on Urquhart.

Getting 1 player (Halak) out of the 6 later round picks also points to a success. (16% > ~10%) but still isn't that tremendous a steal as most teams seem to find 1 NHLer out of those late round picks.

Overall I think that stats point to this draft being a success. On a personal level I don't think it's a homerun, but it netted us some solid NHL players. Compared to our Northeast rivals, we seem to have fared quite well. Buffalo probably had the strongest draft, with 4 NHLers out of 10 picks. Even though Hejda is having his success in CBJ, getting Vanek pushes them over the top easily. I'd then put Boston 3rd, with Stuart and Bergeron. Ottawa got and traded Patrick Eaves. Toronto got John Mitchell and Jeremy Williams.

Thanks for reading and commenting if you made it this far.


Last edited by Quiet Robert: 01-09-2009 at 07:37 PM.
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01-09-2009, 06:30 PM
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Watsatheo
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Thanks, very nice read.

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01-09-2009, 07:07 PM
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I realy like it. I'm looking forward to the look on the 2007 picks in 2 or 3 years. It could turn out to be one of our most succesful in recent years

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01-09-2009, 07:16 PM
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Good read and good work! However, i still believe looking only at numbers is like window shopping.
People argue picking Andrei over the likes of Richards, Getzlaf etc was a mistake, but remember, we probably got Sergei because of Andrei. These guys could be the face(s) of the franchise for years to come.

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01-09-2009, 07:18 PM
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Great job, QR! And to Thresher! Seems like a sound method.

The one part of the writeup I have a minor problem with, is the AKost writeup. I don't know if it's Andrei's puck skills, or his Euro-ness that lends to this bias, but people tend to see him as a one dimensional offensive player. The way I see things, his relatively long development path turned him into a very, very effective two way player. He consistently gets the puck out of the d-zone and keeps it moving forward, rarely making mistakes that lead to turnovers. Any line he joins gives up less shots against than without him, and gets trusted with tougher opposition and more d-zone faceoffs. The one aspect of his game that I think needs to improve is his patience in the O-zone, particularly on the PP. I don't think Andrei realizes yet how much time and space he can create for himself.

What a draft year 2003 was! Right below AKost, you have Carter, Jessiman and Brown. Tough times for the Rangers...

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01-09-2009, 07:33 PM
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If foresight was 20/20 look at the talent that went after andrei:
Jeff Carter
Dustin Brown
Brent Seabrook
Zach Parise
Ryan Getzlaf
Brent Burns
Mike Richards
Corey Perry


Sick draft year!

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01-09-2009, 08:39 PM
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Andy
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I am one of Andrei's biggest fans and I have to agree with Roulin on his patients in the o-zone, if Andrei would just hold the puck just a little longer and think he'd be a lot more effective. Of all our younger players he's the only one who has PPG potential, he can flat on dominate when he's on his game.

People always talk about his defensive zone coverage, but he's not as bad as people think.

I think what hold's Andrei back is his shyness, if he can overcome that he'd be probably our best player.

Despite consitency issues and playing with a line that hasn't worked all year(also injuries), he has the 2nd most goals on our team and is only 8 points away from being our leading scorer. Also there were many times this year where he'd set up players who just couldn't bury chances, he'd easily have 10 or 11 more points, lets not forget the 4-5 posts he hit as well.

Andrei is a very explosive player, we've seen it many times... defenseman turns over the puck Andrei takes it and makes them pay. Also his play 4 feet away from the goaltender is probably the best on our team.

I think he'll surprise a few people the 2nd half, he may finish with the most goals on our team this year.

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01-09-2009, 08:53 PM
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As good as Kosty is and will become......I still believed we missed an opportunity to change the face of the team, even if people would like to believe that any of those following guys would not have the success they're having elsewhere....And even if it means not having Sergei in the process.

People keep saying that it's easy in hindsight, well prior to the draft, I wanted my big centerman in Ryan Getzlaf. In hidnsight, I still wanted him but other candidates would have proved to be better than AKost espeically like Carter, Parisé, Richards, Brown and Burns.

As far as hindsight is concerned again, the AKost with SKost is then not applicable. It's only in hindsight that we know, if true, how great they are together and how valuable TOGETHER they are to this team. But if AKost is not picked by us, and then if it means that SKost is not picked by the same team that picked AKost, who knows how their respective career would have become.

There were worst picks....we could have ended with Jessiman....And picking AKost in a draft like 2004 or 2006, would have been an incredible pick, but in 2003???? Again, see the guys that were picked after him and see how they ALREADY completely changed the face of their respective franchise. AKost might come to this but he's still not there yet while most other guys have been doing it for 2 years already. Again, it's not a bad pick, but it could have been better. Also, seems that 2 teams knew and had enough to work so they could rack 2 picks in the 1st round for that year. Kudos to their GM's who saw the opportunity to rack 2 picks in one of the greatest draft in the latest years. And the 2 who did it, ended up changing the face of their franchise by a whole lot.

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01-09-2009, 09:39 PM
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From what i hear, 09 is supposed to be a pretty good year as well, one of the best, if not the best since 03.

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01-09-2009, 09:52 PM
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i really believe in 09 timmens has to concentrate on finding us all centers and a lucic type of forward....kind of like 07 when we drafted what? 6 defense men?

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01-09-2009, 09:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
As good as Kosty is and will become......I still believed we missed an opportunity to change the face of the team, even if people would like to believe that any of those following guys would not have the success they're having elsewhere....And even if it means not having Sergei in the process.

People keep saying that it's easy in hindsight, well prior to the draft, I wanted my big centerman in Ryan Getzlaf. In hidnsight, I still wanted him but other candidates would have proved to be better than AKost espeically like Carter, Parisé, Richards, Brown and Burns.
Getzlaf and Richards are really the only ones of that group that are head and shoulders above the others and who would have "changed the franchise". Parise might be evolving into a top level player this season, but it remains to be seen as he hasn't done that yet.

AKost has performed on par with the likes of Brown, Carter (who is starting to cool off alot this season) and Burns.

So considering AKost in the group of Getzlaf, Richards, Parise, Brown, Carter, Burns and others guys like Kesler, Fehr, Bernier, Bilsson, Jessiman, Pouliot, Stewart, Perry, Eaves, I'd say we got ourselves one of the best players all considering.

You can't expect to pick the 1-2 franchise players from a group of 10 similarly rated forwards. Luck has something to do with it too.

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01-09-2009, 10:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
As good as Kosty is and will become......I still believed we missed an opportunity to change the face of the team, even if people would like to believe that any of those following guys would not have the success they're having elsewhere....And even if it means not having Sergei in the process.

People keep saying that it's easy in hindsight, well prior to the draft, I wanted my big centerman in Ryan Getzlaf. In hidnsight, I still wanted him but other candidates would have proved to be better than AKost espeically like Carter, Parisé, Richards, Brown and Burns.

As far as hindsight is concerned again, the AKost with SKost is then not applicable. It's only in hindsight that we know, if true, how great they are together and how valuable TOGETHER they are to this team. But if AKost is not picked by us, and then if it means that SKost is not picked by the same team that picked AKost, who knows how their respective career would have become.

There were worst picks....we could have ended with Jessiman....And picking AKost in a draft like 2004 or 2006, would have been an incredible pick, but in 2003???? Again, see the guys that were picked after him and see how they ALREADY completely changed the face of their respective franchise. AKost might come to this but he's still not there yet while most other guys have been doing it for 2 years already. Again, it's not a bad pick, but it could have been better. Also, seems that 2 teams knew and had enough to work so they could rack 2 picks in the 1st round for that year. Kudos to their GM's who saw the opportunity to rack 2 picks in one of the greatest draft in the latest years. And the 2 who did it, ended up changing the face of their franchise by a whole lot.
agreed. i love akost, but at the same time other people in the draft are doing so much more then him. many of them allstars, and maybe akost will become a ppg player...but as of right now, it was a just a good pick, nothing more then that.

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01-09-2009, 10:45 PM
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Quiet Robert
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lou4gehrig View Post
So considering AKost in the group of Getzlaf, Richards, Parise, Brown, Carter, Burns and others guys like Kesler, Fehr, Bernier, Bilsson, Jessiman, Pouliot, Stewart, Perry, Eaves, I'd say we got ourselves one of the best players all considering.

You can't expect to pick the 1-2 franchise players from a group of 10 similarly rated forwards. Luck has something to do with it too.
I haven't done this yet, but if you look at the 20 players drafted after Andrei, I wonder where he ranks. I think this is worthwhile, because we often complain about the Andrei pick without looking at the complete picture. Personally, I have it like this:

Above Kostitsyn:
-Ryan Getzlaf
-Mike Richards

-Dustin Brown
-Zach Parise
-Jeff Carter
-Brent Seabrook
-Brent Burns

-Corey Perry

Below Kostitsyn:
-Patrick Eaves
-Brian Boyle
-Jeff Tambellini
-Eric Fehr
-Marc-Antoine Pouliot
-Robert Nilsson
-Anthony Stewart
-Mark Stuart
-Steve Bernier
-Ryan Kesler

Busts
-Hugh Jessiman
-Shawn Belle

I've deliberately broken the "above Kostitsyn" into tiers. Getzlaf and Richards would have been franchise changing picks for obvious reasons. But 22 teams had the chance to draft Richards, so we're not alone.

Brown and Parise bring more points and a more rounded game than A.Kost at this point. I love Dustin Brown's game. He can be a 30g/30a guy all the while playing a tremendously punishing style. He's one of the best hitters in the game. Parise looks like he's going to hit 85-90 points this year. Just a sick player, one of the hardest workers in the league right now.

Seabrook and Burns would drastically alter the look of this team's defence. This team needs another top4 dman capable of moving the puck and putting up points and these two provide exactly that.

Jeff Carter looks like he could be a 50 goal scorer down the line. Corey Perry is debatable. As detestable as he is, he does have talent and seems to be putting it together at nearly a PPG pace. I expect he would be the most contested ones and I guess you could make a solid case for Kostitsyn.

In other words, I'd make a 1 for 1 swap for everyone above Kostitsyn except Perry. It would be hard to refuse a 1 for 1 trade for the others listed as "above Kostitsyn" as it stands right now. If someone could mount arguments for Kostitsyn over Perry and the two dmen I think it would be interesting, but other than that, you're looking 5-8 picks that were better than Kostitsyn and 12-15 that were not.

To put it differently, if we look at this pick statistically, it was again a pretty solid pick.

Overall we would have had a 2/20 (10%) chance of getting a franchise changing pick. We also have a 2/20 (10%) chance of having a complete bust.

There are another 6/20, for a total of 8/20 (40%), of the picks that turned out better. By consequence there were another 10/20 and total of 12/20 (60%) of the picks that turned out worse.

So it wasn't a great pick, but it wasn't a poor pick. It gave us an explosive winger with the potential to put up big numbers. Going through all this, I think whitesnake said it best and much more concisely:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake
Again, it's not a bad pick, but it could have been better.

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01-10-2009, 12:39 AM
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Erika
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Andrei is good, but he is no where near guys like CArter, Richards, Getzlaf, Parise, etc. and will probably never will... a little above Average hockey sense and too inconsistent IMO.




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01-10-2009, 10:33 AM
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If AKost played with a talented playmmaker he would be dynamite. A Marl Recchi type player that can score but also make great passes. He does need talent to play with and the birds he plays with dont hand him many sick passes. Laps is one of my favorite Habs. Ive always thought that he will develop. Once he develops an awareness of his role he will be very valuable and one of the reasons the habs could surprise in the playoffs. I love it when he surprises himself with a goal. If he had sick passes laid on him he would score and he skates like the wind and agitates.

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01-10-2009, 10:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
As good as Kosty is and will become......I still believed we missed an opportunity to change the face of the team, even if people would like to believe that any of those following guys would not have the success they're having elsewhere....And even if it means not having Sergei in the process.

People keep saying that it's easy in hindsight, well prior to the draft, I wanted my big centerman in Ryan Getzlaf. In hidnsight, I still wanted him but other candidates would have proved to be better than AKost espeically like Carter, Parisé, Richards, Brown and Burns.

As far as hindsight is concerned again, the AKost with SKost is then not applicable. It's only in hindsight that we know, if true, how great they are together and how valuable TOGETHER they are to this team. But if AKost is not picked by us, and then if it means that SKost is not picked by the same team that picked AKost, who knows how their respective career would have become.

There were worst picks....we could have ended with Jessiman....And picking AKost in a draft like 2004 or 2006, would have been an incredible pick, but in 2003???? Again, see the guys that were picked after him and see how they ALREADY completely changed the face of their respective franchise. AKost might come to this but he's still not there yet while most other guys have been doing it for 2 years already. Again, it's not a bad pick, but it could have been better. Also, seems that 2 teams knew and had enough to work so they could rack 2 picks in the 1st round for that year. Kudos to their GM's who saw the opportunity to rack 2 picks in one of the greatest draft in the latest years. And the 2 who did it, ended up changing the face of their franchise by a whole lot.
I totally agree. Although we still have not seen the ceiling of AKOST, no doubt that Getzlaf or Carter would of changed the face of this organization for 15 years. The big center is still our Achilles Heel.

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01-10-2009, 10:50 AM
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I'm willing to be patient with Kostitsyn as his talent is undeniable and I think he can be a Vanek type of player.

The only thing I don't get when I look at that draft is that it was as clear then as it is today that Montreal needs a big center and in all honesty, even then, guys like Getzlaf and Carter were not that far behind Kostitsyn although their potential/upside might not have been as high at the time hence why not only Montreal picked others before these guys.

I know you have to pick the best player available but sometimes I think you should also pick the best player available at the position you need most when they're not that far behind.

Still, I'll let Kostitsyn develop and become what I think is a PPG player.

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01-10-2009, 11:59 AM
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If AKost played with a talented playmmaker he would be dynamite. A Marl Recchi type player that can score but also make great passes. He does need talent to play with and the birds he plays with dont hand him many sick passes. Laps is one of my favorite Habs. Ive always thought that he will develop. Once he develops an awareness of his role he will be very valuable and one of the reasons the habs could surprise in the playoffs. I love it when he surprises himself with a goal. If he had sick passes laid on him he would score and he skates like the wind and agitates.

I tried to look up to see who's this Marl Recchi you speak of and I couldn't find him. Infact I couldn't find anyone by the name of Marl who has ever played hockey

Mark Recchi was a great player, one of my favorites. He was a smart hockey player and very consistent averaging his career to almost a PPG. The problem right now is the Habs don't have anyone who fits that criteria.... yet.

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01-10-2009, 12:25 PM
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I agree with QR. I would of liked to have had Getzlaf or Parise. Parise is just a machine out there on a defensive system, this guy is going to be a beast in a couple of years.

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01-10-2009, 12:53 PM
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Marlin Wreaky was a legend in the wild goose league
Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadaIsHockey View Post
I tried to look up to see who's this Marl Recchi you speak of and I couldn't find him. Infact I couldn't find anyone by the name of Marl who has ever played hockey

Mark Recchi was a great player, one of my favorites. He was a smart hockey player and very consistent averaging his career to almost a PPG. The problem right now is the Habs don't have anyone who fits that criteria.... yet.

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01-10-2009, 10:02 PM
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I think we should stop complaining about the Kostitsyn pick. Yes, we could have gotten better players, but at least we drafted an NHLer.We didn't draft a Matt Higgins-type player

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01-10-2009, 10:07 PM
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I think we should stop complaining about the Kostitsyn pick. Yes, we could have gotten better players, but at least we drafted an NHLer.We didn't draft a Matt Higgins-type player
Exactly.

We could have gone "big man thirsty" and drafted Hugh Jessiman.

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01-10-2009, 10:08 PM
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I think we should stop complaining about the Kostitsyn pick.
This.

Do Sharks fans constantly ***** and moan about drafting Michalek instead of Phaneuf, Richards, Getzlaf et. al? Imagine any of those guys on this years Sharks teams, or Sharks teams of the past... Wow.

Does anybody think A Kostitsyn is at his peak right now? Exactly. And our drafting since 2003 has probably been the best in the league and to complain about this is just mind boggling to me.

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01-10-2009, 11:22 PM
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We needed a center and should have drafted Carter or Getzlaf as we were actually looking at drafting them. Fact of the matter we still need a center and we're gonna need a real one to play between the brothers in the future. On a line with the captain AK46 looked like a completely different player and Sergei these past 3 games has been back to last year's form. Plekanec ain't it (lack of vision and too small) and while Lang is good he's 38 years old and doesn't control the play as he used to.

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Old
01-10-2009, 11:43 PM
  #25
misterjaggers
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: The Duke City
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quiet Robert View Post
I haven't done this yet, but if you look at the 20 players drafted after Andrei, I wonder where he ranks. I think this is worthwhile, because we often complain about the Andrei pick without looking at the complete picture. Personally, I have it like this:

Above Kostitsyn:
-Ryan Getzlaf
-Mike Richards

-Dustin Brown
-Zach Parise
-Jeff Carter
-Brent Seabrook
-Brent Burns

-Corey Perry

Below Kostitsyn:
-Patrick Eaves
-Brian Boyle
-Jeff Tambellini
-Eric Fehr
-Marc-Antoine Pouliot
-Robert Nilsson
-Anthony Stewart
-Mark Stuart
-Steve Bernier
-Ryan Kesler

Busts
-Hugh Jessiman
-Shawn Belle...
And Patrice Bergeron put up two 70 point seasons.

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