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Sergei Gonchar

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Old
01-24-2009, 11:16 AM
  #1
jmelm
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Sergei Gonchar

Yes, I know Sergei Gonchar has a NTC and any deal involving him would be conditional upon him waiving it. But here is the rationale:


The Penguins are a threat to miss the playoffs this year and while they are not far away from being competitive and making a strong playoff run with a healthy line-up and perhaps a trade or two, they are still a team that is very much built for the future with their best years ahead of them, if they are managed correctly.

I do not believe Sergei Gonchar -- who is signed for this season + next season at a cap hit of $5 million -- will be resigned by Pittsburgh when his contract expires. (And even if the Pens want to retain him, Gonchar may prefer to sign with Toronto where he spends much time and wanted to sign with before he accepted the Pens offer).

Additionally, the Pens are very short on talented young players/prospects at the wing position, and could stand to strengthen their talent pool in general. As such, they also lack the young talent to trade for any rental players at the deadline without compromising their future.

Unless the Pens make a serious move to try to compete this season (i.e. firing the coaching staff and perhaps some trades), it may be good asset management and long-term planing to deal Gonchar.

Which teams do you think would be interested in Gonchar and what are some realistic trade proposals?

(Please keep in mind that while Gonch is recovering from surgery, he is progressing very well, is pain free, and even slightly ahead of schedule in his recovery.)

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01-24-2009, 11:18 AM
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Peter Griffin
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Assuming he's 100% healthy at or before the deadline, I'd love to see him in a Canucks' jersey. Better than Kaberle and a similar cap hit. Not sure the Canucks would have the assets to land him though, assuming they want to keep Cody Hodgson.

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01-24-2009, 12:03 PM
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Drake1588
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If he hasn't played NHL games before the trade deadline, Pens fans would not be satisfied with the kind of value he generates on the trade market. Significant value for the guy would be contingent on his having proved over a week to preferably two weeks prior to the trade deadline that he is healthy and contributing again.

The Penguins will keep him, probably not even shop him, and will want to make the playoffs this year. They aren't going to be a seller.

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01-24-2009, 12:09 PM
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Its hard to say his value at the moment... Great player, important guy for Pens, i hope he gets healthy soon.

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01-24-2009, 12:11 PM
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I said he's probably top 3 in the league at running a powerplay.

Though, coming off a major injury could hamper his value.

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01-24-2009, 12:14 PM
  #6
jmelm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drake1588 View Post
If he hasn't played NHL games before the trade deadline, Pens fans would not be satisfied with the kind of value he generates on the trade market. Significant value for the guy would be contingent on his having proved over a week to preferably two weeks prior to the trade deadline that he is healthy and contributing again.

The Penguins will keep him, probably not even shop him, and will want to make the playoffs this year. They aren't going to be a seller.

I'm well aware of the obvious facts of his injury and the fact that the Pens may choose to keep him.

My question was, IF Gonchar was actually being shopped, what would be some realistic proposals from the teams that may have an interest.

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01-24-2009, 12:18 PM
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He's worth more than Kaberle.... Leafs fans think he's worth the world, so I guess Gonchar could get that and maybe Pluto.

Realistically, if they are bowing out (which I doubt) they'd get a 1st+top prospect and more.

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01-24-2009, 12:21 PM
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Terence Peterman
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Originally Posted by Nikita Filatov View Post
He's worth more than Kaberle.... Leafs fans think he's worth the world, so I guess Gonchar could get that and maybe Pluto.

Realistically, if they are bowing out (which I doubt) they'd get a 1st+top prospect and more.
The guy's 34 and hasn't played a game this season. If he hasn't played by the break there's no way anyone gives that up for him, regardless what he's done in the past or what he's capable of. Anyone making a serious playoff push probably has good enough of a team to not feel the need to wager that big of a gamble.

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01-24-2009, 12:27 PM
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Realistically, if he gets shopped at any time this year it would probably be either at the draft, or shortly after the FA period to a team that missed out on their D targets. I don't think we could get good value for him at the deadline and we still want to sneak back into the playoff race, so we'd have to be mathematically eliminated to move him then.

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01-24-2009, 12:48 PM
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Assuming he comes back healthy, coupled with the fact that he has a year remaining on his deal at a great cap hit, he could have a similar return (possibly more) than what Boyle and Campbell brought.

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01-24-2009, 12:57 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nikita Filatov View Post
He's worth more than Kaberle.... Leafs fans think he's worth the world, so I guess Gonchar could get that and maybe Pluto.

Realistically, if they are bowing out (which I doubt) they'd get a 1st+top prospect and more.
Gonchar is better, but his value isn't much better than Kaberle's if at all. Gonchar just had major surgery and is 34. His contract expires after next year, and I'm sure most teams would be hesitant to resign him long-term at his age and after his major injury.

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01-24-2009, 01:30 PM
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The Penguins can't move Gonchar. Regardless of his injury. The Pens PP has struggled mightily this season with out him and no other d-man has stepped up to fill his void, even to give the Pens second thoughts on whether to retain Gonch. If I where the Pens it would take a pretty signifiiciant offer to land him.

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01-24-2009, 01:34 PM
  #13
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Gonchar's value is probably at the lowest of his career. Until he comes back and shows that the shoulder is healed, he wouldn't garner much of a return. Also, the Pens PP is an abomination without him. So it really makes no sense for the Pens to move him at all.

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01-24-2009, 01:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SomeDude View Post
Gonchar's value is probably at the lowest of his career. Until he comes back and shows that the shoulder is healed, he wouldn't garner much of a return. Also, the Pens PP is an abomination without him. So it really makes no sense for the Pens to move him at all.
I think his value was lower after he just signed the 5-year, $25 million deal and started playing terribly off the hop. After all, he was arguably at his best ever form last season.

But that's just me.

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01-24-2009, 01:41 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chea View Post
Gonchar is better, but his value isn't much better than Kaberle's if at all. Gonchar just had major surgery and is 34. His contract expires after next year, and I'm sure most teams would be hesitant to resign him long-term at his age and after his major injury.
Gonchar is 5 years older and his cap hit is 5 million.

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01-24-2009, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by HossaHavlatGiguere View Post
The Penguins can't move Gonchar. Regardless of his injury. The Pens PP has struggled mightily this season with out him and no other d-man has stepped up to fill his void, even to give the Pens second thoughts on whether to retain Gonch. If I where the Pens it would take a pretty signifiiciant offer to land him.
How do you expect Whitney, Letang, or Goligoski to become a powerplay QB if they are never put in the position to do so? Everyone makes this statement, "There's no one to run the powerplay", but lest we forget, we have 3 very young and promising offensive defensemen who could potentially fill that hole if given the proper chances to do so.

Gonchar didn't come into the league manning the powerplay the way he does now. It take time and experience. I wouldn't be one bit surprised if next year, any of those 3 will be able to step into the powerplay and have it be just as effective as if Gonchar were running it, now that all 3 have had the opportunity to have a taste this season.

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01-24-2009, 06:06 PM
  #17
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We have waited how long to have a legit number one dman and now we want to move him?

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01-24-2009, 06:21 PM
  #18
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After this year, we will need the cap room.

Trade Gonchar for a first round pick and a good winger prospect.

Use the cap room to snag someone nice in free agency.

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01-24-2009, 06:56 PM
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Don't forget the importance Gonchar has on Malkin (Geno still lives with Gonchar). He's basically been his Malkin's lifeline. So for the Pens to trade Gonchar, it would take something pretty overwhelming in return

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01-24-2009, 07:38 PM
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I think he has moved out now or is in the process of moving out,but undoubtedly he is very important to Geno.

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Old
01-24-2009, 07:58 PM
  #21
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Geno bought a house and plans to move into it with his family and his gf/fiance. So that's fine, but Gonchar means a ton to the Penguins and the past what, 5-6yrs or so or even more, he has been a top 5 to top 10 defenseman in terms of powerplay qb's and points go. He's also a very underrated defenseman, he plays the man very well and when he wants to get physical he can (ie: 2007-08 Playoffs).

Ideally, he's a guy you really can't move. His age + his contract status with the NTC makes it hard and would limit Ray's choices. I was for trading Gonchar but with his contract (the 1yr left after this one), what can we really get? He had a successful shoulder surgery so it's just a matter of time till he plays again. It's not a question of if, it's when with him playing.

I would rather see Ray trade one of Goligoski or Whitney for wing help, then keep Gonchar another year or two at a cheaper price. If Gonchar can provide powerplay help in to his late 30's and can still be somewhat effective..why not? He's not deteriorating like Zubov.

So his value is very very damn high with the Penguins. Around the NHL...he's a top 5 pp qb, probably a top 3. If a team wants to go deep into the playoffs and Gonchar was healthier earlier on, the team could have gotten quite a big return for him.

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01-24-2009, 08:02 PM
  #22
AK
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Quote:
Originally Posted by genoisclyde View Post
Don't forget the importance Gonchar has on Malkin (Geno still lives with Gonchar). He's basically been his Malkin's lifeline. So for the Pens to trade Gonchar, it would take something pretty overwhelming in return
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09001/939063-61.stm

Malkin has moved out.

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