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Tomas Kaberle

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Old
01-25-2009, 12:47 PM
  #151
oilerbear
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Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
Hardly. 1.Those "facts" are cherry-picked, and ignore where Kaberle is most effective, on the powerplay. They are designed to muddle the debate. Everybody knows that Kaberle is a very effective defenceman, and he has the track record over the past number of years to prove it.

According to the media, a 1st, prospect, and young roster player is pretty much the consensus return expected. I trust this more than a convoluted page of stats. Anyways, this debate is academic - Kaberle will net a serious return whether or not we consider him a top-15 or top-25 D. Why?

2. Because he'll be the best D available at the deadline.

Edit: 3. More specifically, we don't know anything about where he gets his numbers from. How does he rate quality of opposition? What's his methodology? Raw numbers can't mean anything to us unless we know the circumstances in which they're gathered, so we can understand the internal biases.
1. Thomas kaberle plays 4 minutes and 38 seconds on the power play he gets 4.78 power play points for every 60 minutes he plays. (PPpts/60). That makes him the 16th best power play points producing Dman in the league.
the Average Dman in the league plays +10:00 EVTOI; +1:30 PKTOI and PPTOI
The average PP dman gets you 3.30-3.45 PPpts/60 it takes kaberle 14.25 games to reach 60 minutes of PP time.

He gets you 8 extra PPpts for the year versus the average PP Dman. He is pretty elite on the PP.

Kaberle plays 1 minute and 11 seconds per game on thw Penalty Kill and gives up 11.05 goals against per 60 mintes played. 8th worst penalty killing dman in the league. The average penalty kill dman gives up 6.35 GA/60.

Kaberle gives up 8 more goals a year than the average PK dman.

kaberle plays 17 minutes and 12 seconds of even strength play against soft competition (-.02) with the best teamates on his team (+.08). He scores .76 even points every 60 minutes played (EVpts/60) ranks him 48th out of 120. He gives up 3.19 even goals against for every 60 minutes played. 11th worst in the league. The average dman in the league gets .70 EVpts/60. The average dman inthe league gives up 2.45 EVGA/60.
Kaberle generates 1 more point at even than the average dman in the league.
Kaberle gives up 17 more goals than the average dman in the league.

To summarize we have a Dman who is a Elite difference maker for 4 minutes and 38 seconds on the power play. Who is one of the ten worst Dmen in the league the other 18 minutes and 23 seconds he plays.

Versus the average Dman in the league
PPpts +8
PKGA -8
EVPTs +1
EVGA -17
total = -16

I am sorry being -16 goals against versus the average Dman in the league is not Elite.
If we compare to the elite Dmen well its even more embarrassing.

2. There are 21 Offensive Dmen who meet the total league average (any time on ice by Dmen)

these are above the league average values for the categories:
1. Above 3.30 PPPT/60
2. Above .7 EVPT/60
3. Below 2.85 EVGA/60

Here are the 21 of them:
Pronger ANA,
Chara BOS,
Wideman BOS,
Spacek BUF,
Campbell CHI,
Keith CHI,
Liles COL,
Kronwall DET,
Lidstrom DET,
Rafalski DET,
Souray EDM,
Grebeshkov EDM,
Gilbert EDM,
Mcabe FLD,
Bouwmeister FLD,
Markov MTL,
Suter NSH,
Kuba OTT,
Blake SJ,
Boyle SJ,
and Green WAS.

The guys in bold are ahead of the list.

3. I get them from the Desjardins site. The cirumstances are called game situations. The results are calculated from players stats versus time played. There are three main groups of stats Even play (5 on 5), Penalty kill (4 on 5), and Power play (5 on 4). The site I reference is Behind the net. It is driven by the players results for the year.

Here is the site:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/

plus on the bottom of his front page is links to other websites.
It has lots of great stuff.

Another site I go to is Espn. they have a shot page in there game cast section of each game. That shows were every shot comes from during the game. Gives you a decent picture as to quality of shots yeilded. and shows you were the goals came from. It shows who took the shot but I wish they would assign a gamecast time to it so you can go through the gamecast to see the the context the shot was taken in.
Here is an example:

http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/gamecast?gameId=290119001

This site and the links are also a favorite.

http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Links.htm

That is all!

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Old
01-25-2009, 01:05 PM
  #152
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Thanks for giving info on where you're getting your numbers from, I'm sure you'd understand how we'd be dubious about unsourced info that is that specialized.

I think the main problem here is that your stats are all from this year, where he's been playing on a lousy team, and realistically, has been having a sub-par season. To remain that effective on the powerplay is pretty good in that context. Your even strength numbers don't take into account that his goalie has been having a catastrophic year, and that his forwards have been playing a fairly wide open style that lends itself to even strength breakdowns.

Do you see where I'm going with this? Hockey isn't baseball - detailed statistical analysis doesn't give you a complete picture of who a player is. A larger problem is the sample size that is used when you're only halfway through a season, on the tail end of an ice cold streak by the Leafs. How is this an accurate reflection of what a guy who is only second to Lidstrom in points since the lockout can do? I just have real problems with this sort of analysis.

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01-25-2009, 01:21 PM
  #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
Thanks for giving info on where you're getting your numbers from, I'm sure you'd understand how we'd be dubious about unsourced info that is that specialized.
You should be skeptical anyways.
A couple of years back, I recall seemingly every Oiler being mentioned as a "shutdown player". Then in an argument about how certain players from other teams were avoiding the "top talent" I did some checking on behindthenet. Basically, I counted a bunch of Oilers at the top of the quality of competition list... a couple Sens... a bunch more Oilers, a couple Sens. And by the time I'd gone through the entire Oilers team, I was maybe up to 10 Sens players. A distribution that looks more like Ottawa was in the ECHL and the Oilers were playing a rotation against the East and West All-Star teams. On the same list were defensive stalwarts such as Delmore, Dempsey and others way up on the list ahead of Norris contenders and actual shutdown D-men.

Maybe things have improved since then, maybe not. Personally, I put little stock in behindthenet stats.

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01-25-2009, 01:47 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
Well, that may be true, assuming the all-around d-man is just as good offensively. But if he's a step down offensively, and you already have a shutdown pair and a good responsible D, you have to wonder if that Powerplay QB isn't a more valuable commodity to a particular team. So far as Streit goes, I'd be shocked if he got traded right after being signed, that isn't a great way to get future free agents. Assuming he did though, I don't think he'd have more value, as he's still a bit more of an unknown quantity than Kaberle.

Honestly, and this is more directed at Ike, if you're comparing him to Woz defensively, I really don't know what to say. Maurice was trying to get Woz to step up and perform to his potential, so they put him in a lot of situations, particularly with injuries. It's not a good point. Kaberle was always head and shoulders better defensively than McCabe when they played as a tandem. His real skill is making a sharp breakout pass out of the Leafs zone, and he plays a smart game with little to no mistakes.

If it was him traded to the sharks instead of Boyle or Campbell, we'd be talking about how great a D he is, and there'd be no argument about him being top 10. I would say he's better defensively than either of these guys.
Who takes Kaberle for 4 minutes a game ahead of a guy who gives you 25 minutes of close to the same play everywhere? As for Streit, spare me the past Kaberle. Not a gm in this league is trading for Kaberle from 2003 or 2005. Using your logic, Blake is worth quite a bit as a 40 goal scorer and Pat Kane is worth not as much as Nylander. Streit is playing on a worse team. Alot worse team and doing better than Kaberle, signed for longer at the same rate. I get the fan coming out, but playing victim everytime someone mentions Boyle or Campbell is really getting old. Neither Boyle or Campbell are very good defensively either, and I doubt you'll find anyone saying so. They are however comparable puck movers.

As for McCabe. He was never worse than Kaberle defensively. His giveaway to the Hab player was talked about forever last year, but haven't heard much of Kaberle's giveaway this year. The difference between the two? Leaf fans jumped on McCabe for being the reason they missed the playoffs and allowed Kaberle a pass. Not many Panther fans are complaining right now. All you do is make excuses for this and that when talking about Kaberle. Sadly, for you and other Leaf fans, some keep count and see a pattern of inadequacies that need covering up. It doesn't change what a player is because you expect a kings ransom. He is a 4 minute elite player. If all you did was play OT, you'd have a point.

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01-25-2009, 02:33 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by nogoalov View Post
Who takes Kaberle for 4 minutes a game ahead of a guy who gives you 25 minutes of close to the same play everywhere? As for Streit, spare me the past Kaberle. Not a gm in this league is trading for Kaberle from 2003 or 2005. Using your logic, Blake is worth quite a bit as a 40 goal scorer and Pat Kane is worth not as much as Nylander. Streit is playing on a worse team. Alot worse team and doing better than Kaberle, signed for longer at the same rate. I get the fan coming out, but playing victim everytime someone mentions Boyle or Campbell is really getting old. Neither Boyle or Campbell are very good defensively either, and I doubt you'll find anyone saying so. They are however comparable puck movers.

As for McCabe. He was never worse than Kaberle defensively. His giveaway to the Hab player was talked about forever last year, but haven't heard much of Kaberle's giveaway this year. The difference between the two? Leaf fans jumped on McCabe for being the reason they missed the playoffs and allowed Kaberle a pass. Not many Panther fans are complaining right now. All you do is make excuses for this and that when talking about Kaberle. Sadly, for you and other Leaf fans, some keep count and see a pattern of inadequacies that need covering up. It doesn't change what a player is because you expect a kings ransom. He is a 4 minute elite player. If all you did was play OT, you'd have a point.
How about we compare defencemen from the lockout? Stop ignoring the past like its nothing. Even though Blake scored 40, it was once which shows he had one good year (his contract year!). Kane just came in the league and unlike Nylander, still has potential to even better (so your point sucks there too!).

Ignoring the past is stupid way to look at comparing players. Especially since Kaberle has been a top 10 -15 defenceman in the past couple of years.

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Old
01-25-2009, 02:35 PM
  #156
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nogoalov View Post
Who takes Kaberle for 4 minutes a game ahead of a guy who gives you 25 minutes of close to the same play everywhere? As for Streit, spare me the past Kaberle. Not a gm in this league is trading for Kaberle from 2003 or 2005. Using your logic, Blake is worth quite a bit as a 40 goal scorer and Pat Kane is worth not as much as Nylander. Streit is playing on a worse team. Alot worse team and doing better than Kaberle, signed for longer at the same rate. I get the fan coming out, but playing victim everytime someone mentions Boyle or Campbell is really getting old. Neither Boyle or Campbell are very good defensively either, and I doubt you'll find anyone saying so. They are however comparable puck movers.

As for McCabe. He was never worse than Kaberle defensively. His giveaway to the Hab player was talked about forever last year, but haven't heard much of Kaberle's giveaway this year. The difference between the two? Leaf fans jumped on McCabe for being the reason they missed the playoffs and allowed Kaberle a pass. Not many Panther fans are complaining right now. All you do is make excuses for this and that when talking about Kaberle. Sadly, for you and other Leaf fans, some keep count and see a pattern of inadequacies that need covering up. It doesn't change what a player is because you expect a kings ransom. He is a 4 minute elite player. If all you did was play OT, you'd have a point.
I'm not talking about 2003 Kaberle, more like the last couple of years. That is relevant, no? I still don't see what Streit has to do with Kaberle, he isn't going to be traded. Everybody has been saying that Kaberle is comparable to Boyle or Campbell, the main difference is that he gets paid a lot less.

I really like McCabe, and I never criticized him last year. But really, he is a mistake prone defenceman with good offensive abilities and a great shot. The new obstruction rules really hurt his defensive game, and he had some trouble adapting. Do you really watch that many leaf games, to be able to tell me that I'm wrong in my opinion of Kaberle's defensive skills versus McCabe's? I understand you're a panthers fan, and I know McCabe's played well, but he has his shortcomings.

For the last part, I assume you mean PP. Bottom line, I don't agree. Anyways, who said King's Ransom, all I've ever said was something similar to what Boyle got, if not a little bit better. Kaberle is who he is, but you're wrong to say that he's a completely one-dimensional player.

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Old
01-25-2009, 02:37 PM
  #157
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Originally Posted by trentmccleary View Post
You should be skeptical anyways.
Thanks for the info, I think the site has value, but you have to approach it with an open mind and look for flaws while you're interpreting it.

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01-25-2009, 02:45 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by grabo84 View Post
Thanks for the info, I think the site has value, but you have to approach it with an open mind and look for flaws while you're interpreting it.
Given the actions of the current and past Leafs coaches, not to mention actual performance on the ice, both support his analysis of Kaberle's glaring (but constantly understated here) defensive problems, I'd say "going and looking for flaws" indicates an inherent bias.

Kaberle is clearly not one of the top defensemen in the league, just one of the top PP specialists. Near top 10? Not even close.

(edit) Also, since this is confusing some people, that doesn't mean he wouldn't command a 1st round pick and a prospect at the trade deadline; offensive defensemen are not so common (especially at Kaberle's offensive abilities) that they are a dime a dozen.

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01-25-2009, 02:51 PM
  #159
grabo84
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Originally Posted by Crazy_Ike View Post
Kaberle is clearly not one of the top defensemen in the league, just one of the top PP specialists. Near top 10? Not even close.
I put him at top-15 in my list. Where would you rank him? Who's better?

Edit: I missed the inherent bias part. General flaws in the methodology, obviously not related to just one team. The sort of flaws that were spelled out earlier.

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