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Burke: I say three to six (first round) draft picks moving

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Old
02-06-2009, 09:52 AM
  #51
Foy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
So Burke says that 3-6 first round picks could get moved at the deadline ... which is what we've historically seen, with the notable exception of 2007 which saw the record 9 1st-round picks moved.


Burke is such a genius!
It's a shame we don't have a "Captain Obvious" smiley here, because it would fit for Burke's statement.



That's your Captain Obvious smiley.

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Old
02-06-2009, 09:55 AM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Lunatik View Post
I don't think the draft being in Montreal will make a difference at all in that decision... besides if the Habs go into the draft without a 1st and pull off a move to get a 1st... it would dreate some buzz
Montreal is a team built through the draft, they won't go two years in a row without a 1st round pick.

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Old
02-06-2009, 10:04 AM
  #53
19Yzerman19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Polak
There certainly is a lot of pressure to make the playoffs burkie

Tor 1st '09 + Tor 1st '10 for kovalchuk and kozlov


Quote:
Originally Posted by Bosh Pit View Post
1) There is no pressure to make the playoffs for the next 2-3 years.

2) Horrible proposal.
Yeah because Kovy alone is nowhere near worth 2 1sts right?

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Old
02-06-2009, 10:10 AM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asterix View Post
Kaberle is NOT worth our first, sorry. A signed Bouwmeester maybe (in a package of course).

I'm calling Shenanigans. A top pairing d-man signed to a bargain contract for 2.5 more years isn't worth the 20-30th draft pick overall? You are absolutely flipping delusional if you don't think that's the case.

A sign J-Bo is worth more than MON next 5 1st round DP's IMO. Those late 1st round DP's have about a 25-30% chance of any sort of NHL career, and probably a 3% chance of landing a player as good as J-Bo.

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Old
02-06-2009, 10:13 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beukeboom Fan View Post
I'm calling Shenanigans. A top pairing d-man signed to a bargain contract for 2.5 more years isn't worth the 20-30th draft pick overall? You are absolutely flipping delusional if you don't think that's the case.

A sign J-Bo is worth more than MON next 5 1st round DP's IMO. Those late 1st round DP's have about a 25-30% chance of any sort of NHL career, and probably a 3% chance of landing a player as good as J-Bo.
Kaberle is great and the contract is awesome...But he doesn't fit the needs of Montreal. They already have Markov who is very similar. Kubina is a much better fit for what Montreal needs right now (big, strong, physical, good defensivly and has a big shot).

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02-06-2009, 10:14 AM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveYzermanGreatest View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Polak
There certainly is a lot of pressure to make the playoffs burkie

Tor 1st '09 + Tor 1st '10 for kovalchuk and kozlov




Yeah because Kovy alone is nowhere near worth 2 1sts right?
No because Toronto's firsts are guarenteed superstars

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Old
02-06-2009, 10:31 AM
  #57
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im happy that we have gillis who has the balls to make a big deal

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02-06-2009, 10:38 AM
  #58
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Burke pretty much confirmed what CBJ organization is thinking imo. I grantee we are that team that he's talking about with pressure to finally make the playoffs.

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02-06-2009, 10:41 AM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
Who the hell would go to the Draft on the first day if your team is not even picking?
Are you serious?

So the Montreal Canadians would pass up an opportunity to greatly improve their team and unlimately their chances of winning the Stanley Cup because they're affraid people won't show up to the draft?


Last edited by Majik1987: 02-06-2009 at 11:13 AM. Reason: Flaming
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Old
02-06-2009, 10:45 AM
  #60
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In your typical deadline frenzy, not more than three or four picks are moved. In the deadline silliness of a few years back, with GMs facing one of the weakest drafts in a decade, 9 picks were moved.

My guess is, that at the end of the day, the # of picks moved this year will be closer to 3 than 9. So, I think Burke will be proven wrong in the top end of his prediction.

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Old
02-06-2009, 11:25 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irish Blues View Post
So Burke says that 3-6 first round picks could get moved at the deadline ... which is what we've historically seen, with the notable exception of 2007 which saw the record 9 1st-round picks moved.


Burke is such a genius!
It's a shame we don't have a "Captain Obvious" smiley here, because it would fit for Burke's statement.
Did you listen to the entire 12 minute interview or are you just making this observation on the one 30 second sound bite?

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Old
02-06-2009, 11:33 AM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beukeboom Fan View Post
I'm calling Shenanigans. A top pairing d-man signed to a bargain contract for 2.5 more years isn't worth the 20-30th draft pick overall? You are absolutely flipping delusional if you don't think that's the case.
That's what happens when someone jumps into a conversation halfway through... First of all, Kaberle is NOT a top pairing d-man in Montreal. Markov and Komisarek are top pairing for the Habs and Kaberle would be on the second pairing with Hamrlik.

Secondly, the draft is in MONTREAL! Fans come out the first day to see who Gainey will pick and unless a guy like Lecavalier or a signed Bouwmeester is available, you can damned well forget about them trading their first round pick!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Beukeboom Fan View Post
A sign J-Bo is worth more than MON next 5 1st round DP's IMO. Those late 1st round DP's have about a 25-30% chance of any sort of NHL career, and probably a 3% chance of landing a player as good as J-Bo.
LMAO!

Really? Glad you're not the Habs' GM!

I have full faith in Gainey and Trevor Timmins' track record for drafting, thank you very much.

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Old
02-06-2009, 12:46 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asterix View Post
LMAO!

Really? Glad you're not the Habs' GM!

I have full faith in Gainey and Trevor Timmins' track record for drafting, thank you very much.
Kaberle is a top pairing d-man in the NHL. Maybe not in MON - but league wide - that's the role he plays and his value. It's not fair to try and compare him to Komi who plays a MUCH, MUCH different game.

Maybe I'm giving the Habs too much credit - but w/ Price & the young talent they've got I had them projected in my mind as a strong play-off team (picking somewhere between 20-30) over the next 5 years. You're telling me that you don't think that J-Bo is worth only 1 (+ sweetners) of those picks? You're absolutely insane. A 25 YO top 5-10 d-man in the league signed long term? He'd have CRAZY value, and a bunch of late 1st's just doesn't get there IMO.

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Old
02-06-2009, 12:50 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misfit View Post
Are you serious?

So the Montreal Canadians would pass up an opportunity to greatly improve their team and unlimately their chances of winning the Stanley Cup because they're affraid people won't show up to the draft?
I was just answering someones question as to why it's a big deal to have a 1st rounder if you are hosting the draft. I never said they would not deal it.

Plus Montreal has other assets they can deal, it's not like their 1st rounder is the only thing of value that they have.

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Old
02-06-2009, 12:53 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nikita Filatov View Post
If I said it, would there be a thread on it as well?
Yes, especially if you said you would be moved for one of them

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Old
02-06-2009, 01:19 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by JimEIV View Post
If I am a NHL executive at the deadline - I am carefully weighing my future vs. the likelihood of making real noise in the playoffs. In my opinion you don't give up a high picks "just to make the playoffs". You give up an important asset to win now and no other reason. Teams that are one or two components away from championship caliber give up these type of asset.
From a practical standpoint, I agree entirely, however, we must also consider the economics sometimes involved, i.e., a struggling franchise needing the revenue that a playoff round (or two) will deliver. Short-sighted? Perhaps. But that's reality.

What you suggest is exactly what has transpired forever, and perhaps, to your point, even moreso today among NHL GMs. It is not exaggeration, however, to suggest as some here have, that more than a few HF posters value picks and abstract futures over Stanley Cups.

Their prerogative.

Entertaining reading, always.

Quote:
This is when a GM proves what he is worth -- Making the realistic assessment of his teams possibilities and their current state.
Here's what's realistic, IMO.

A playoff team with a later 1st round draft pick moves it for the services of Kaberle this postseason, as well as beyond. In a nanosecond. Unless that team does not consider itself a contender. I doubt Bob Gainey (or Lou, for that matter) share such sentiment.

Around here, we're not paid to win. We can plan for winnning sometime around 2015, with a "perfect" roster of 20 nice homegrown draft picks. Doesn't work that way in the real world, where a GM is responsible for being competitive now and moving forward.

As you well know, having posted here for a few seasons, the next GUARANTEED step in this process is for deadline day to come and pass...and for a majority of Futursist here to badmouth ANY contender that moved ANY futures for ANY veteran.

Wait for it.


Last edited by Trottier: 02-06-2009 at 05:19 PM.
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Old
02-06-2009, 01:43 PM
  #67
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It's a good interview, but then Burke is always a good interview. It's hard to disagree with his thought process either. If one of the favorites, like the Sharks, the Bruins (and I'd add the Red Wings), lose on of their top 4 defensemen near the deadline, they will be willing to overpay for Pronger. The next tier, like Philly, Montreal might be willing to overpay for Pronger if they believe he is the missing piece. He believes the pressure will be so great on some of the bubble teams GMs, that some will be compelled to do a deal.

Burke also states he will not move the Leafs 1st unless someone gives up a young "age-group" 18-21 impact player. It all makes sense to me. The trick is not the part about knowing what you should do as a GM, the art is in knowing what to give up and most importantly evaluating talent well, better than your competitors. That appears to be where guys like Ken Holland have an advantage over most GMs.


Last edited by TaketheCannoli: 02-06-2009 at 02:05 PM.
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Old
02-06-2009, 03:47 PM
  #68
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I think Florida might move their first, especially if they move bouwmeester, (though if bouw is moved it will likely bring another 1st back)

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Old
02-07-2009, 10:35 AM
  #69
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Let us look at the last eight years to figure out which possible teams could actually trade their first round draft pick for some playoff help and/or future help down the line.

2000
Colorado

2001
Colorado
St. Louis
Washington

Off Season
Detroit
NY Islanders

2002
NY Rangers
Philadelphia

2003
Detroit
Philadelphia
Toronto

Off Season
Florida (swapped 1st)

2004
Boston
Detroit
Toronto

2005
Lock out lottery – no first round trades

2006
Carolina
Edmonton
Nashville

Off Season
Anaheim
Minnesota
New Jersey

2007
Atlanta
Buffalo
Dallas x2 (2007 & 2008)
Nashville
NY Islanders
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
San Jose

Off Season
Toronto
Florida (2008)
St. Louis (2008)

2008 Season
Colorado
Pittsburgh
San Jose
Tampa Bay (San Jose’s first round 2009 to Ottawa)

Summer 2008
Calgary
Columbus
Montreal
Philadelphia
San Jose (2009 pick)

Based on past history of first round pick trades and the current standings this season, consider the following teams to possibly move their first round pick for this year.

Boston
Buffalo
Calgary
Detroit
Florida
Nashville
Washington

Teams that would possibly consider trading their first round picks closer to the deadline and based on their needs and future position in the standings are:

Carolina
Colorado
Columbus
Dallas
Edmonton
Minnesota
Montreal
NY Rangers
Ottawa (San Jose’s first round pick)
Pittsburgh

If even 30% of those teams decide to trade their first round draft picks, you are looking at about five draft picks moving by the deadline this year. It will be fun to watch trade deadline coverage to see which of these teams do trade their first round selection for some help in the future or this year’s playoffs.

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Old
02-07-2009, 10:44 AM
  #70
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And what was the success rate for those teams, especially those who traded their first round picks at the deadline?

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02-07-2009, 10:58 AM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Asterix View Post
And what was the success rate for those teams, especially those who traded their first round picks at the deadline?
Only one team can win a cup. The success rate will always be extremely low.

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02-07-2009, 11:00 AM
  #72
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Only one team can win a cup. The success rate will always be extremely low.
Thanks for proving my point. That's exactly where I was going with this.

If I told you to invest most of your savings in a stock that has a 1-10% chance of getting you a good return, would you jump on that deal?

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02-07-2009, 11:09 AM
  #73
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When a draft is highly touted, like this upcoming one, seeing 1st rounders being traded by the deadline is rather unusual.

I predict that no more than 3 will be traded and that they'll ALL be in the 17-30 range.

Fell free to come back to this post on March 5th!

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02-07-2009, 11:14 AM
  #74
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Originally Posted by Asterix View Post
Thanks for proving my point. That's exactly where I was going with this.

If I told you to invest most of your savings in a stock that has a 1-10% chance of getting you a good return, would you jump on that deal?
Well, I basically agree with you. It doesn't mean that its invariably a bad move, but these deals always look worse in retrospect than they do at the time they are made. Every GM is looking for ways to improve their team at the deadline, and if they want high-end talent the price always includes a 1st.

You could argue that GMs would be better off if they never made these deals, and you might be right, but it is a competition, and at times the price is paid to keep up with a divisional rival, or to get a player that another team you might match up with in the playoffs is after.

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Old
02-07-2009, 11:16 AM
  #75
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Thanks for proving my point. That's exactly where I was going with this.

If I told you to invest most of your savings in a stock that has a 1-10% chance of getting you a good return, would you jump on that deal?
But what about, this, if you save your savings and not do anything with it, it could be hacked and stolen by a criminal. A good example would be like Florida, they had Olli, they had Luongo, and with some other pieces they could of been a dynasty, but they stuck with Weiss, and Horton, and what are they now? A fringe contender, so you have to look at it both ways. Another example could be Columbus 5 years later depending on what they do.

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