Bah, that's likely true. But I think you're going to see quite a change in voting if Green keeps this up at this rate. He's changing things.
I don't think it's fair to compare numbers from those 80's teams with the numbers from today. Two different balls of wax when comparing talent pools and styles of play. I mean, over the past 5 years the threshold for leading defensmen in point has been, what, 80 by Lidstrom a few years back? If Green hits 80...with a +/- in the 30 range (which is the key)...I think he has a really good shot at winning the thing when all things considered.
We'll see. I think it'll be close.
I'm not slagging on Green by any means, but I do think Chara has it locked up. I will say this: I think there is an excellent chance that Green picks up more Norris 'points' than Lidstrom this year in the end-of-year vote. That's insane, but Green is having a strong enough year in terms of production to do it.
Chara, though, is dominating games through sheer physical presence. The numbers are respectable to very good, but it's the way he takes over games on the defensive side of the puck. It's not even his hitting or fighting, although that's part of it. Chara is simply everywhere on the ice this year. Boston's dominating conservative game plan, which has them tops in the NHL, runs through Chara this year.
Green will give you 2-3 points a game, but he doesn't control games to the same extent as does Chara this season.
Note that Green is on pace for less than 70 points this year (69.x). Lidstrom won the Norris last season with 70. I don't buy the notion that for defensemen, goals are going to be counted more heavily.
Green has a healthy deficit to make up in assists and plus/minus over his defensemen competitiors: 27 to 34 and +21 to +31.
Is that largely because of his time on the shelf? Absolutely, but you get credit for endurance, and you get no sympathy for time off. Green will end up being an offensive defenseman with numbers that just aren't high enough to make up for the fact that he can't dictate the pace of a game through defensive play.
Note that Green is on pace for less than 70 points this year (69.x). Lidstrom won the Norris last season with 70. I don't buy the notion that for defensemen, goals are going to be counted more heavily.
I think they definitely would be if he hit a significant milestone, like 30 goals.
I think it would for overall points, especially if there was significant separation between the leader and the #2 defense scorer, but not merely for the goals lead.
Green's assist totals are not high enough for the overwhelming-points-lead-regardless-of-defense argument to bear fruit, in my opinion.
He's going to win the goals for defensemen title, and he will probably win the points total by a hair, but I don't think he's making up his deficits in assists and plus/minus.
Granted, I think plus/minus is often a BS stat, for individuals. Plus/minus aggregates say more about a team. Plus/minus tells us that Boston has been a dominating club this year, for example. Compare plus/minus stats from Boston to those of San Jose, and it is telling. Boston has crushed the opposition this season.
He didn't make the allstar team. Give me a list of Norris winners who didn't make the allsatr team.
Also he's a pretty good right wing and a half-ass defenseman. He will lead in defenseman goals again tho.
Interesting point, I feel like they are somewhat on the same level .... in regards to how they are viewed by the league, public, fans, etc. Your reputation and in this case, his flashy play might be able to pull it in.
That said, I voted no ... Charra's to lose this year, but Green will have his chances.
I think it would for overall points, especially if there was significant separation between the leader and the #2 defense scorer, but not merely for the goals lead.
Green's assist totals are not high enough for the overwhelming-points-lead-regardless-of-defense argument to bear fruit, in my opinion.
He's going to win the goals for defensemen title, and he will probably win the points total by a hair, but I don;t think he's making up his deficits in assists and plus/minus.
Granted, I think plus/minus is often a BS stat, for individuals. Plus/minus aggregates say more about a team. Plus/minus tells us that Boston has been a dominating club this year, for example.
Note that Green is on pace for less than 70 points this year (69.x). Lidstrom won the Norris last season with 70. I don't buy the notion that for defensemen, goals are going to be counted more heavily.
Green has a healthy deficit to make up in assists and plus/minus over his defensemen competitiors: 27 to 34 and +21 to +31.
Is that largely because of his time on the shelf? Absolutely, but you get credit for endurance, and you get no sympathy for time off. Green will end up being an offensive defenseman with numbers that just aren't high enough to make up for the fact that he can't dictate the pace of a game through defensive play.
Green is on pace for 77 points in 69 games.
Maybe that's where you got the "69".
He's on a pace for 92 points in 82 games (this will probably dip).
Green missed time after being plastered by Pronger on an offensive rush with the puck that very little if any NHL defenseman can pull off. Had little to do with his "endurance". He gives more hits than he takes.
He can dictate the pace of a game with his skating ability and stickhandling and puck-movement on defense. 85-100 pts will be enough for voters to give him the nod once or twice in his career, IMHO.
He is on pace for 69 points because the Caps have played 54 games, regardless of how many games Green has played, in an 82-game season.
Green is not going to get credit, or have his points adjusted, extrapolated to what his numbers might have been, based on an 82-game season. He missed time, and that is going to hurt him, period.
The question then becomes this: How much does Boston's best player have to do with the goal differential being so acute?
Is Chara benefiting from the fact that his club's goal differential is so significant, or is Boston's goal differential so significant because of Chara's dominant defensive game this season?
Both the Caps and the Bruins score like it's going out of style, but the Bruins keep those goals against totals low. It comes down to how much of that low goals against figure you attribute to Chara, and how much you attribute to depth, to defensive systems, to goaltending, etc.
The Caps score a lot of goals and allow a lot of goals.
The Bruins score a lot of goals and allow very few.
We're discussing a matchup of these teams' #1 defensemen.
He is on pace for 69 points because the Caps have played 54 games, regardless of how many games Green has played, in an 82-game season.
Green is not going to get credit, or have his points adjusted, extrapolated to what his numbers might have been, based on an 82-game season. He missed time, and that is going to hurt him, period.
Yeah, okay.
If Green doesn't miss another game his pace is still 77 points, Oh Voice of Reason.
I edited after you posted. Absolutely there is some causation between Chara's play and Boston's goal differential dominance.
I don't like the +/- stat, but once you normalize it for special teams, I think it provides some insight. That Green's +/- is roughly the same as the team's is impressive and allows you to put Green's rating and Chara's rating in a common framework.
Hrmm... if he takes the plus/minus title, then he's probably in the Norris victory realm.
That 10-point deficit, against a player who plays for the Bruins, is going to be awfully hard to make up, though. The Caps are going to have to play .750 hockey, while the Bruins inexplicably stumble.
If he does lead in goals, assists, points, plus/minus, then yes, he probably wins the Norris.
I wasn't arguing...I just wanted you to type it. You probably hit enter with your eyes closed.
I don't even think it'll be long before he wins. Just not this year. Still too much of a space cadet. Too raw.
At some point, though, Coffey-like stats take over and it's enough. The key is simply that for all the attention, Green's overall numbers aren't going to be in Coffey territory, even adjusted for the era. A total of 70 doesn't make up for pedestrian defense. In this era, 90-100 is the new 120-130, which constituted Coffey stats that put him over the top, back in the day. With more assists and fewer goals, other defensemen are going to come in with point totals similar to Green this year (even if those guys did it in 82 games, and Green in 65) but with better defensive games.
Incidentally, Pronger has made hash of many a NHL player, so there is no shame in getting lit up by a legend. Yet unless I'm mistaken, that play in which Pronger hammered Green took place along the boards right behind the Anaheim net.
Just for the record...when I was hyping Green back in 04...I had no idea he'd be this good. I was expecting like...at most...decent Sylvain Cote type numbers. You know...15 to 20 goals...30 to 40 assists and a defensive work in progress by the age of 26 or 27.
Just for the record...when I was hyping Green back in 04...I had no idea he'd be this good. I was expecting like...at most...decent Sylvain Cote type numbers. You know...15 to 20 goals...30 to 40 assists and a defensive work in progress by the age of 26 or 27.
This could get absurd.
i did read a boudreau quote where he promised green would be better next year. so we've got that going for us.
