A question, what do people think the value of trading down from #1 to #2 spot in the draft is... presumably giving up Tavares for Hedman? Is it worth a 1st or 2nd round pick? 3rd round pick? Taking on a bad contract? (assuming a lotto win)
Say the Islanders are willing to do..
2nd Overall Pick (Hedman)
2nd Round Pick 2009 Islanders (2nd pick in the 2nd round)
I don't think so. They might be tempted but I doubt that they would do this deal. They take on two bad contracts and drop considerably in the 2nd round. They would love Tavares but Hedman has franchise potential and that is something the Islanders could really use. If they did this deal it would purely be because Tavares would sell tickets and give Wang leverage in talks for a new arena.
The Islanders should have a ton of cap space still left even with adding Tucker and Clark. They get the top end offensive player in the draft for moving down a few spots in the second round and taking on two players with 1 year deals left. Both Clark and Tucker are also upgrades in at least some regards to current roster players for the Islanders.
Just because the Islanders have a ton of cap space doesn't mean that they want to use it. They almost certainly have an internal cap and taking on $5.75 million worth of contracts for players that aren't very good probably isn't high on their priority list.
Avs drop to Hedman and now have the first and second pick in the 2nd round.(either to draft with or package to move up into the top 15 possibly in the 1st round) Avs also clear the two worst contracts on the books to make a major splash or two in the off season. Perhaps you even do something like..
We'd have the 1st and 3rd picks in the second round. Lottery results only have an effect on the 1st round so we will have the 3rd picks in every round regardless of the lottery.
Get both Hedman and Duchene from the draft. Two key building blocks for the future. Granted, you are giving up alot in terms of potential picks, but for what you get in return it is something to think about.
Neither side does that trade IMO. Duchene is a very, very good prospect and, in terms of recent players, has the potential to be a similar player to Toews. They could also draft a few other players in that spot that would help the organization. You don't pass up on talent like that for 2nd round picks that could easily bust and for a 1st rounder that you have no idea what position it will be in.
The Avs don't do the deal because they give up too much. Post-lockout, the Avalanche have tried to replenish the prospect depth and have so far been somewhat successful in that endeavor. One reason for this is the number of early round picks they have acquired and drafted players with. Giving up 3 early round draft picks and T.J. Hensick for the 3rd overall pick is too much. Considering the Avalanche are unlikely to be a very strong team next year, that 1st in 2010 could be a high pick. Also, T.J. Hensick is one of our most valuable trade pieces. I wouldn't mind him being traded, but I'd rather it be in a package for an established player (like a goalie) rather than for a draft pick.