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The Lockout and the Preds

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09-15-2004, 03:18 PM
  #1
echosmyron
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The Lockout and the Preds

It looks like Preds fans are faced with a double edged sword regarding the two proposed plans by the owners (cap) and players (tax).

For the owners to have their way, the season will not happen, there will be a strike, the union will be broken and there will be hockey next season with lord knows who suiting up. there will be a lot of ill-will from fans and there is no telling if the fans will come back enough to support a team, even though a system is supposedly in place to help teams like Nashville.

There is a good possibility there is no more Nashville Predators by the time the players are all back and under the system the owners claim they need to survive.

If the players have their way, the owners would negotiate a luxury tax, they could conceivably get this done by next week, there would be a training camp and a season, the fans would be immediately happy. However, the owners seem to think this system won't work and that many teams will not survive because the big spenders can still spend. The Preds might not survive under the new system in the end, if this is true.

however, they would have the chance to build upon last season's success with their fanbase and if they continue to develop their talent and win, they might solidify a fanbase and be successful under that system and thrive long-term under that system.

I would like to see the owners try the luxury tax system for a new CBA. Negotiate the level down a little bit from where it currently is in the players' proposal, and let the chips fall. If the team folds in 4 years because a tax doesn't work, then so be it. It just wasn't meant to be.

I don't think they will fold, though. I think it helps the Preds because I think it's more important for them to cash in on last season's playoffs right now than to have a salary cap after driving away their fanbase for 1-2 years.

If no one comes to the games after a prolonged lockout, the Preds will move or fold, regardless of whether the economic landscape is in their favor. At least they have a fighting chance if they play now. It just seems like they have a better chance of long-term survival by solidifying the tangible present rather than banking on the intangible future.

What does everyone else think?

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09-15-2004, 03:30 PM
  #2
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Well it's Titanmania back in Nashvegas, so I don't think that it will have an ill effect for awhile...

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09-15-2004, 03:33 PM
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ya know what...I'm about fed up with both the players and the owners...the owners such as Wirtz' who charge fans to pay to watch the Hawks in Chicago for home games and for the players' for being absolutely dilusional when a very reputeable indipendent economist named Arthur Levitt

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09-15-2004, 04:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by echosmyron
What does everyone else think?

You can choose to fix the problems with the NHL now, or you can hope the league in its current state, survives long enough to fix the same problems a few years down the road. Either way, the issues facing the NHL need to be fixed and compromising with the NHLPA does not seem to be the answer. When it comes down to it, the NHL will have to break the Union in order to rebuild the economic structure of the league....and the owners seem to be prepared to break their backs.
For a city like Nashville....too much emphasis is placed on how the fans will react. Let's face it, the core fans will come back...all others are on the fence until there is some sort of buzz surrounding the team. If the Preds come back and have success, then I don't think that many people will stay away from the game. In the meantime...enjoy the AHL, college hockey and Canadian Juniors.

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09-15-2004, 04:45 PM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FD
You can choose to fix the problems with the NHL now, or you can hope the league in its current state, survives long enough to fix the same problems a few years down the road. Either way, the issues facing the NHL need to be fixed and compromising with the NHLPA does not seem to be the answer. When it comes down to it, the NHL will have to break the Union in order to rebuild the economic structure of the league....and the owners seem to be prepared to break their backs.
For a city like Nashville....too much emphasis is placed on how the fans will react. Let's face it, the core fans will come back...all others are on the fence until there is some sort of buzz surrounding the team. If the Preds come back and have success, then I don't think that many people will stay away from the game. In the meantime...enjoy the AHL, college hockey and Canadian Juniors.

i agree with this. WE will all be back...and it's not like our attendance was phenomenal to begin. i'd be more worried if this happened after THIS season, when all the casual fans would likely be coming. we're still so up in the air with nashvillians that one good season will bring all the bandwagon people back. we might have another season with 10-11,000 a night in attendance, but that's nothing new. I'm not concerned with 'alienating would-be fans." and i'm for this lockout, if it means things get fixed.

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09-15-2004, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by nomorekids
i agree with this. WE will all be back...and it's not like our attendance was phenomenal to begin. i'd be more worried if this happened after THIS season, when all the casual fans would likely be coming. we're still so up in the air with nashvillians that one good season will bring all the bandwagon people back. we might have another season with 10-11,000 a night in attendance, but that's nothing new. I'm not concerned with 'alienating would-be fans." and i'm for this lockout, if it means things get fixed.
And realistically, our future is in our prospects. Our strength as an organization has been built from within....a year away hurts us quite a bit less, in comparison to other NHL teams, in terms of the people we will be putting on the ice. Granted, Legwand, Hartnell, Erat, etc. needed this year in the NHL as they are reaching the points in their career where they will be turning the corner from youth, to young leaders.

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09-15-2004, 05:59 PM
  #7
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I see your points and they make sense. I wish I shared your optimism. Perhaps I'm a little too down about the whole situation and it's not as dire as I think. kudos to you guys for having more faith in the nashville fanbase than I. Of course, the status quo needs to go and the owners caving in for the status quo just to play now is unacceptable. Let me throw out a devil's advocate...

correct me if i'm wrong, but didn't the owners push for a luxury tax in 1994, the players rejected it, the owners caved, and here we are? Assuming that was the case, if the NHLPA is now pushing for a luxury tax, wouldn't that mean the owners technically won a little bit, albeit 10 years later? I know the salaries have gone up from 1994's levels, but if there is a negotiated luxury tax system, based on the players proposal, wouldn't that differ enough from the status quo and be what the owners sought just 10 years ago? Why is that not even something the league can negotiate? They just rejected it. If they negotiate on that and the players don't budge, then OK.

also, you guys and I will be back. The people from this board and the Preds official board will be back. But, we can't be sure that the other 10,800 of the 11,000 will be back. We can't be sure that they won't be back, either. But we can be sure that they'd be back right now if there is a quick and acceptable solution. Who knows what level of anger will seep into people in the next NHL-less year. What if the corporate support dries up even more than it already is?

I guess the question is which is the bigger risk: a luxury tax system (negotiated down from the players' current offer to something that could work for both sides) or waiting to see what an already minimal fanbase thinks when this is resolved after being punched in the gut for 1.5-2 years by millionaires and billionaires and thwacked over the head by constant negativity from the media (well, i guess that would be no different from the good ol' days). just food for thought...

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09-16-2004, 12:32 AM
  #8
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Kimmo's take...

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09-16-2004, 08:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by echosmyron
correct me if i'm wrong, but didn't the owners push for a luxury tax in 1994, the players rejected it, the owners caved, and here we are? Assuming that was the case, if the NHLPA is now pushing for a luxury tax, wouldn't that mean the owners technically won a little bit, albeit 10 years later? I know the salaries have gone up from 1994's levels, but if there is a negotiated luxury tax system, based on the players proposal, wouldn't that differ enough from the status quo and be what the owners sought just 10 years ago? Why is that not even something the league can negotiate? They just rejected it. If they negotiate on that and the players don't budge, then OK.
The hope is that the owners learned from their mistake. They have been strong-armed by the NHLPA for quite a while. They have the power in their hands. I know alot people don't understand this, but the organizations themselves can last a year or two without hockey (several will actually make more net profit this year than last). The average to below average NHLer (which constitutes the greatest portion of the NHLPA) is not going to forgoe their NHL salary for two years. They cannot afford to. Their window of opportunity for earnings is small (5-10 years usually), and they are not going to throw out two of them over some squabble. It's not very easy to tell a family man to move to Europe for 2 years, take a major paycut, and wait it out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by echosmyron
also, you guys and I will be back. The people from this board and the Preds official board will be back. But, we can't be sure that the other 10,800 of the 11,000 will be back. We can't be sure that they won't be back, either. But we can be sure that they'd be back right now if there is a quick and acceptable solution. Who knows what level of anger will seep into people in the next NHL-less year. What if the corporate support dries up even more than it already is?
A good portion of fans may stay home immediately following the lockout. This happened in baseball, though I think the level of animosity towards the players/owners was much higher with baseball fans than the average hockey fan. If they don't come back initially, they'll come back eventually if we can win. If the lockout ends in our favorable, we should, in theory, be infinitely more competitive. We will no longer be unable to outbid all but a few teams.

Quote:
Originally Posted by echosmyron
I guess the question is which is the bigger risk: a luxury tax system (negotiated down from the players' current offer to something that could work for both sides) or waiting to see what an already minimal fanbase thinks when this is resolved after being punched in the gut for 1.5-2 years by millionaires and billionaires and thwacked over the head by constant negativity from the media (well, i guess that would be no different from the good ol' days). just food for thought...
You have high expectations Hockey won't be bashed over the head by the media because the national media just doesn't care. Hockey might be in a fortunate position. They might be able to sneak under the radar and then pop back up with a season and fans will say, "I had forgotten about them." Then, if the product comes back with a measure of parity, then we can turn those casual fans who didn't miss it into the real deal.

Hockey can accept a luxury tax. But when that CBA expires, we'll have this same b.s. It won't fix hockey no more than it fixed baseball.

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09-16-2004, 08:44 AM
  #10
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Smokey, thanks for the reply. Those are all things I used to think and used to say to people in my office or whatever that are casuals/apathetics that would say, "hockey is so screwed up" or "hockey can't survive in nashville", etc.

I think my brain is in overdrive with negativity in the past couple of days. I'll just relax, wait it out and see what happens and hope for the best. I hope you're right.

(the city of) Nashville came through at the draft, nashville came through in the playoffs and late-season, i'll just go ahead and have faith that they'll come through again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyClause
Hockey won't be bashed over the head by the media because the national media just doesn't care.
I meant, but didn't clarify, beat over the head by the local media. The Nashville media towards hockey: All the negativity of the national media with 3/4 the apathy.

Speaking of the national media, last night at about 12:30, i was setting my alarm and Sporting News Radio (or whatever the news service on 104.5 in Nashville is) and the little top of the hour news flash came on and the guy started it by saying "I'm about to break a cardinal rule of broadcast journalism that i was taught in school: Never start a news cast with a hockey story..." A-hole.

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09-16-2004, 02:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by echosmyron
Smokey, thanks for the reply. Those are all things I used to think and used to say to people in my office or whatever that are casuals/apathetics that would say, "hockey is so screwed up" or "hockey can't survive in nashville", etc.

I think my brain is in overdrive with negativity in the past couple of days. I'll just relax, wait it out and see what happens and hope for the best. I hope you're right.

(the city of) Nashville came through at the draft, nashville came through in the playoffs and late-season, i'll just go ahead and have faith that they'll come through again.



I meant, but didn't clarify, beat over the head by the local media. The Nashville media towards hockey: All the negativity of the national media with 3/4 the apathy.

Speaking of the national media, last night at about 12:30, i was setting my alarm and Sporting News Radio (or whatever the news service on 104.5 in Nashville is) and the little top of the hour news flash came on and the guy started it by saying "I'm about to break a cardinal rule of broadcast journalism that i was taught in school: Never start a news cast with a hockey story..." A-hole.
I'm glad you are taking a break from the negativity. It drains you. Just shield yourself from it for the next couple of days and it'll all fade away. There will be an article or two in the Tennessean about greedy players/owners and there will be some talk about it on local radio stations. Just ride it out. In a few days, the focus will shift solely on two (maybe three) things: Titans football, UT football, and possibly Vandy football. Hockey will be all but forgotten until something major happens and that's likely the signing of new CBA. Hockey can just hibernate and let things settle.

BTW, welcome to our board.

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09-16-2004, 03:05 PM
  #12
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Tenessean Article

This article makes an especially good point in the end. That the lockout effects more than owners, players, and fans...basically entire cities.

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09-16-2004, 03:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Basher
Tenessean Article

This article makes an especially good point in the end. That the lockout effects more than owners, players, and fans...basically entire cities.
please...DON'T EVER POST A BIDDLE ARTICLE HERE AGAIN...he's anti-NHL, Pro-NFL, he also doesn't try and write good stories and he makes my arse ache...thank you

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09-16-2004, 03:32 PM
  #14
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yeah, biddle's pretty clueless in matters of hockey. He does know a lot about TSU football, Steve Spurrier, and college basketball. And he says "no question about it" a lot on the radio.

Suppose Climer, Biddle, Kuharsky, McClellan, and Woody drew straws to see who got to write the initial NHL Lockout column?

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09-16-2004, 03:37 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by echosmyron
yeah, biddle's pretty clueless in matters of hockey. He does know a lot about TSU football, Steve Spurrier, and college basketball. And he says "no question about it" a lot on the radio.

Suppose Climer, Biddle, Kuharsky, McClellan, and Woody drew straws to see who got to write the initial NHL Lockout column?
Mark McGee > all those jokers

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09-16-2004, 06:40 PM
  #16
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I'm not from Nashville so I don't get to hear/read him at all...

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09-16-2004, 06:42 PM
  #17
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Originally Posted by Basher
I'm not from Nashville so I don't get to hear/read him at all...

oh, well, in the future...don't bother. this IS the guy that once said,

"I don't know hockey and I don't want to"

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09-16-2004, 09:52 PM
  #18
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eeks...

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