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Old
04-27-2009, 03:52 PM
  #26
JTG
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I'm not so sure you know how player contracts work. Guys don't just take a 2 million dollar pay cut willingly like you have Gonchar doing.

Cammy will be getting more than 4.5 also.

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04-27-2009, 04:03 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by JTG32005 View Post
I'm not so sure you know how player contracts work. Guys don't just take a 2 million dollar pay cut willingly like you have Gonchar doing.
Gonchar's would be a tapered contract. He'd still get 5 million salary in 2010-2011. I'm only writing cap hits. I have Gonchar predicted as:

Year 1= 5 million (35 yrs old)
Year 2 = 4 million (36)
Year 3 = 4 million (37)
Year 4 = 3 million (38)
Year 5 = 1.5 million (39)
Year 6 = 1 million (40)

Cap hit of 3.08 million. And while you're correct that I don't know how player contracts work, I believe as players near 40 their salaries decrease. Perhaps I have decreased Gonchar's too much, but I believe he will have a lower cap hit than 5 million on his next contract. Bet on it.

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04-27-2009, 04:13 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by JTG32005 View Post
Cammy will be getting more than 4.5 also.
Maybe, but....

Teams penny pinching due to economic woes + The opportunity to play alongside Malkin &/or Crosby on a contending team + Long term contract discount could = 4.5 million cap hit for Cammalleri.

Also, while I'm not in love with super long deals, perhaps it's time the Penguins cashed in on that Detroit-style 11-year contract. It's not ideal, but it's a nice way to secure some talent for a low cap hit. Might be the best way to stay competitive.

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04-27-2009, 04:22 PM
  #29
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Considering how Gonchar's play has declined post-shoulder injury, (and given how tricky joint injuries are, especially if you're not young), I really don't know why ANYONE would be in a rush to sign Gonchar for 6 years.

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04-27-2009, 04:27 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by ChitownExile View Post
Considering how Gonchar's play has declined post-shoulder injury, (and given how tricky joint injuries are, especially if you're not young), I really don't know why ANYONE would be in a rush to sign Gonchar for 6 years.
Hmmmmm, what would you do?

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04-27-2009, 04:31 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by SlyGuy View Post
Maybe, but....

Teams penny pinching due to economic woes + The opportunity to play alongside Malkin &/or Crosby on a contending team + Long term contract discount could = 4.5 million cap hit for Cammalleri.

Also, while I'm not in love with super long deals, perhaps it's time the Penguins cashed in on that Detroit-style 11-year contract. It's not ideal, but it's a nice way to secure some talent for a low cap hit. Might be the best way to stay competitive.
Not happening man. Cammy will fetch between 5-6 million a year this offseason. The economic situation of the league will at most keep him in the low 5's.

And that "Playing with Crosby and Malkin on a contender" is a beat argument. Marian whats-his-face proved that theory false just a mere 10 months ago.

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04-27-2009, 04:34 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by SlyGuy View Post
Hmmmmm, what would you do?
Well, take a good hard look at him this comming season, for starters, before penciling him in with an extension.

Secondly, as with any 35+ player, I'd really think long and hard about any deal longer than 2 years, the cap hit be damned, since the penalties for player contracts at that age are greater.

We could very well lose more money than we'd save by giving Gonchar a long-term deal than maintaining our roster flexibility, especially as Goligoski and Letang develop.

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04-27-2009, 04:40 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by ChitownExile View Post
Well, take a good hard look at him this season, for starters, before penciling him in for next year.

Secondly, as with any 35+ player, I'd really think long and hard about any deal longer than 2 years, the cap hit be damned, since the penalties for player contracts at that age are greater.

We could very well lose more money than we'd save by giving Gonchar a long-term deal than maintaining our roster flexibility, especially as Goligoski and Letang develop.
I agree with this. First off, structural change is inevitable if the cap actually drops 10% in a season. What that structural change is...nobody knows...which is why you don't make hasty decisions this offseason. Thus, the only extension I would give is to Letang, even though he'll get more than the $2.5 million you estimate.

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04-27-2009, 05:50 PM
  #34
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What I'd do:

'09-'10 Cap: $56.5M
Kunitz(3.75M)-Crosby(8.7)-Guerin(3)
Caputi(.813)-Malkin(8.7)-Sykora(2.75)
Cooke(1.2)-Staal(4)-Kennedy(.725)
Talbot(1.05)-Zigomanis(.75)-Godard(.75)
Bissonnette(.5)

Orpik(3.75)-Gonchar(5)
Eaton(2)-Letang(.835)
Goligoski(1.2)-Zanon(1.2)

Fleury(5)
Curry(.6)

Total:$56.27

Only sign UFA's (Zanon, Guerin, Ziggy, Sykora) to 1-year deals. Trade Dupuis to move up in the 2nd round.

2010- Cap @ $52?M

Kunitz(3.75M)-Crosby(8.7)-1st rounder (Morin?)(.85)
Caputi(.813)-Malkin(8.7)-Kennedy(.725)
Tangradi(.7)-Staal(4)-Talbot(1.05)
Jeffrey(.509)-Zigomanis(.75)-Godard(.75)
Bissonnette(.5)

Orpik(3.75)-Gonchar(4)
Eaton(1.2)-Letang(3)
Goligoski(1.2)-Lovejoy(.85)

Fleury(5)
Curry(.6)

Total:$51.35

*CPZ or Veilleux may be ready. Sign Gonchar to 2-3 year deal. We'll have to build from within to make it work, whether we like it or not. We've got to have a great draft this year.

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04-27-2009, 05:57 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tommybishop71 View Post
Zigomanis is a UFA after this year, and I see Talbot never leaving Pittsburgh, he is quickly becoming a Icon.

I say we promote Jeffery and Caputi . Re-sign RFA's Gogo and Curry. Try to keeps Scuds, if we cant, try and land Komaserik for 3 and Kovalev for 3....I know its a highly optomistic wish list, but Shero is God and we all know that
Komisarek is going to be looking for around 4.5-5mil a year so there's a NO. Kovalev is our best bet with him looking at best 3.5-5mil a year.

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04-27-2009, 06:21 PM
  #36
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I've crunched the numbers and the cap will be 55mm next season (the 5% inflator will be eliminated effectively reducing the cap by ~5%). At this moment in time, 50mm for the following season is optimistic (this depends largely upon how the CAD does in the next year, if it's back up on par with our dollar then 50mm is a good guess, if it stays at current levels then 48mm is more realistic). And the league in no way, shape or form will cut contracts across the board or allow anyone over the cap.... there is a CBA that spells these things out.

The teams mentioned here like the Flyers, Rangers and Wings have the money to stash contracts in the AHL by using the only real cap "loophole". Contracts starting the offseason will reflect the drop. The stars will still get paid, but many good players will have to swallow their pride and sign a contract less than their previous one. You can look at the list of this years UFAs and safely guess the top 15 or 20 will get their money. Everyone is in the same boat with a falling cap. A smart GM can take advantage of this by being patient.

While the Pens cap situation doesn't look good, they really have no need to sign more stars.... just a couple solid wingers and a dman or two.

I could discuss this in detail for hours but nobody wants to hear it. Suffice it to say that most teams that are willing to spend to the max are already close, and those who aren't are trying to stay below the mid-point (8mm less than the max) to keep a full share of revenue sharing.

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Old
04-27-2009, 06:25 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonjmc View Post
I've crunched the numbers and the cap will be 55mm next season (the 5% inflator will be eliminated effectively reducing the cap by ~5%). At this moment in time, 50mm for the following season is optimistic (this depends largely upon how the CAD does in the next year, if it's back up on par with our dollar then 50mm is a good guess, if it stays at current levels then 48mm is more realistic). And the league in no way, shape or form will cut contracts across the board or allow anyone over the cap.... there is a CBA that spells these things out.

The teams mentioned here like the Flyers, Rangers and Wings have the money to stash contracts in the AHL by using the only real cap "loophole". Contracts starting the offseason will reflect the drop. The stars will still get paid, but many good players will have to swallow their pride and sign a contract less than their previous one. You can look at the list of this years UFAs and safely guess the top 15 or 20 will get their money. Everyone is in the same boat with a falling cap. A smart GM can take advantage of this by being patient.

While the Pens cap situation doesn't look good, they really have no need to sign more stars.... just a couple solid wingers and a dman or two.

I could discuss this in detail for hours but nobody wants to hear it. Suffice it to say that most teams that are willing to spend to the max are already close, and those who aren't are trying to stay below the mid-point (8mm less than the max) to keep a full share of revenue sharing.
With the new arena and the richest owner in hockey we should be in the same position to take advantage of that loophole as any other team. That said, as I said above there will be so many teams in trouble if the cap drops to $50 million that I am pretty certain something will be worked out. What exactly, I have no clue. If not though a LOT of teams will be scrambling so it is the same thing, we will not be at any sort of competitive disadvantage.

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04-27-2009, 07:18 PM
  #38
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Not a big fan of Kotalik. Yeah I know he's a right-handed shot but he's more of what we've had recently in the top six...inconsistent.

I don't like the idea of a six-year deal for Gonchar. That's just asking to throw away cap space.

And Cammalleri is out of our price range.

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04-27-2009, 07:32 PM
  #39
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Anyone can come up with UFA names to slide into our wings. The fact is, however, that we, and pretty much any team that can spend near the cap max, rely heavily on our pipeline to develop into quality NHL players.

If there ever is a time where drafting and development is important, now is that time.

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04-27-2009, 07:33 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan View Post
With the new arena and the richest owner in hockey we should be in the same position to take advantage of that loophole as any other team. That said, as I said above there will be so many teams in trouble if the cap drops to $50 million that I am pretty certain something will be worked out. What exactly, I have no clue. If not though a LOT of teams will be scrambling so it is the same thing, we will not be at any sort of competitive disadvantage.
If you assume that ownership is willing to lose money. I wouldn't make that assumption myself. Although to be fair, they did eat the Satan contract even if the balance was only a bit over a million, so you may be correct.

And the CBA is amendable if both sides agree, but there is little motivation for the owners to seek a higher cap than the current CBA would mandate... they would simply put themselves in a position to lose money. There may be already a half dozen teams that are losing double digit millions now, can't see them agreeing to lose more.

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04-27-2009, 07:39 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SCUDeriMISSILE View Post
Anyone can come up with UFA names to slide into our wings. The fact is, however, that we, and pretty much any team that can spend near the cap max, rely heavily on our pipeline to develop into quality NHL players.

If there ever is a time where drafting and development is important, now is that time.
You are correct, this is how it works with any capped league. You sign a key free agent or two and fill out your roster with the players you draft. The NHL's cap is still in it's infancy, the GMs will catch on sooner or later. Have to break the "build the team through free agency" mindset.

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04-27-2009, 07:45 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by SlyGuy View Post
OK, so I did a little number crunching assuming the cap remains the same next year and then dips to 55M the following year. In Free Agency I propose the Penguins let Guerin, Satan, Fedotenko, Boucher, Gill and Garon walk. I propose they persue Cammalleri and Kotalik and promote Adams, Goligoski and Curry from the minors. Here are my projected line combos with cap hit:

EDIT: Sykora is not resigned and Kennedy takes his place. Dupuis is traded for a pick/prospect and Caputi takes his place. Gonchar signed to a 6 year deal 5 - 4 - 4 - 3 - 1.5 - 1. Lovejoy takes over Scuderi who leaves via free agency.

Forward Lines
Kunitz (3.73) - Crosby (8.7) - Kotalik (2.1)
Cammalleri (4.5) - Malkin (8.7) - Kennedy (.73)
Caputi (.83) - Staal (4) - Cooke (1.2) then Talbot (1.05)
Adams (.6) - Talbot (1.05) then Zigomanis(.7) - Goddard (.75)

Defense
Gonchar (5 then 3.08) - Eaton (2 then 1.25)
Letang (.84 then 2.5) - Orpik (3.75)
Goligoski (1) - Lovejoy (.5)

Goalies
Fleury (5) - Curry (.75)

Spares
Zigomanis (.7) (2009-10 only)

Cap Hit
2009-2010 = 56.42
2010-2011 = 54.21
If we can get get 6.6M in salary via UFA why don't we do it this way...Bertuzzi 2.5M for 1 year, then Kovalev 1 year at 4.1M.

Kunitz-Crosby-Bertuzzi
Talbot-Malkin-Kovalev
Cooke-Staal-TK
Biz-Ziggy-Godard

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Old
04-27-2009, 09:37 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by pittiful89 View Post
Honestly, at this point I think it should be a 1 year plan. If it actually drops to $50 million in 2010, then the league will have to do something because most teams will not be cap compliant. They will either have to temporarily decrease all salaries, make a 1 year exception to the cap, or maybe even this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designated_Player_Rule

But still, thinking we can keep the $21.4 million trifecta and sign the likes of Cammalleri is laughable.
I agree with all of this, but to add - we cannot plan on being saved by the bell due to extraordinary changes next year. We don't know if its coming, and frankly it isn't possible to know just how bad it might get for revenues. All we do know is that the league has been tough in terms of coming down on those who haven't been cap compliant, and we cannot put ourselves in a position where we need to force through sales at discounts.

Ultimately, next seasons squad will most likely be about desperately hoping that we can get one of the rookies into the team, that Pesonen can make it, that a guy like Scuderi signs at a major discount and that an UFA forward will sign a one year with us cheaply due to title ambition and a depressed market. Yes - Jagr - that minimum wage thing sounds like a great thing for you to do .

The cap won't be going up, and we will have to take downgrades for next sason to the forward group we have now. If the cap goes down as much as feared for 10/11, we will lose a star (at least) unless the league changes rules. Those are facts.

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04-27-2009, 10:27 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by JTG32005 View Post
Not happening man. Cammy will fetch between 5-6 million a year this offseason. The economic situation of the league will at most keep him in the low 5's.

And that "Playing with Crosby and Malkin on a contender" is a beat argument. Marian whats-his-face proved that theory false just a mere 10 months ago.
Well to be fair Hossa did go to the best team in the league.

I think Cammalerri is definitely a pipe-dream for this team. He'll get 5 million at least and that's just not realistic for us. We might be able to snag Kovalev, but even that might be a stretch.

And after reading this thread I can't figure out why a few people are including Sykora in their future plans for the Pens. Is there really any chance he is resigned after his performance lately? Not only that but even with Sykora of the past he doesn't really fit in with the new system of Bylsma.

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04-28-2009, 05:10 AM
  #45
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I think Cammalerri is definitely a pipe-dream for this team. He'll get 5 million at least and that's just not realistic for us. We might be able to snag Kovalev, but even that might be a stretch.
I definitely think it is. Example:
Imagine Scuderi resigned to 2 million. Zigomanis signed to 0.9. Gogo signed to 1.2. Lovejoy promoted as the extra D at his present 0.85. If anything this would amount to impressive bargain deals by Shero.

Then we're still short the top six wingers. Now imagine that for toughness and nostalgia reasons we're sending Dupuis and a so-so prospect to Atlanta for RFA Colby who - after holding out for more than Atlanta wants to pay and threatening arbitration - signs with us at his present 1.2 because he misses us just that much.... which allows us to move Kennedy to Crosby's wing for whirlwind action on the first line.
Then we sign Pesonen to a 1 million deal as Sykora's replacement. We all agree this is not super sexy. Yet - we're now at 53.5 million with one top6 winger to sign. Gah! If the cap doesn't drop (I think it will), that's 3 million left, and we'd need a bit of room to call up people when injuries happen. So, incoming UFA at 2.5 max unless we plan on playing Caputi there. For everyone screaming about Pesonen being nothing but silly, unrealistic hope on my part (might be).... drop him then. Sign Sykora for 2.5 or someone else. Just remember that then the available funds for the remaining winger drop that much more.


Kunitz (3.7) Crosby (8.7) Kennedy (0.725)
XXXXXXXXX Malkin (8.7) Pesonen (1)
Cooke (1.2) Staal (4) Colby (1.2)
Talbot (1.1) Zigomanis (0.9) Godard (0.75)
Extras from WBS: Jeffrey, Caputi, BizzNasty.... Tangradi, Vitale etc.

Sarge (5) Orpik (3.7)
Letang (0.85) Eaton (2)
Goligoski (1.2) Scuderi (2)
Lovejoy (0.85)

Fleury (5)
Curry (0.5)



I think it is clear that there will be no big names coming unless someone big leaves... or Jagr comes through as the knight(cap) in shiny armor (I think my Pesonen case is about 100x as realistic ). Shero has to earn his wages in the years to come.

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04-28-2009, 08:33 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by aislephive View Post
Well to be fair Hossa did go to the best team in the league.

I think Cammalerri is definitely a pipe-dream for this team. He'll get 5 million at least and that's just not realistic for us. We might be able to snag Kovalev, but even that might be a stretch.

And after reading this thread I can't figure out why a few people are including Sykora in their future plans for the Pens. Is there really any chance he is resigned after his performance lately? Not only that but even with Sykora of the past he doesn't really fit in with the new system of Bylsma.
Well go back to threads when Hossa was a free agent and see what was said. The argument I outlined above was what dominated as to why he should come back.

A lot more goes into a players decision whether or not they want to play here. Most of those factors are way ahead on the line when determining what city you want to play in.

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04-28-2009, 08:57 AM
  #47
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I definitely think it is. Example:
Imagine Scuderi resigned to 2 million. Zigomanis signed to 0.9. Gogo signed to 1.2. Lovejoy promoted as the extra D at his present 0.85. If anything this would amount to impressive bargain deals by Shero.

Then we're still short the top six wingers. Now imagine that for toughness and nostalgia reasons we're sending Dupuis and a so-so prospect to Atlanta for RFA Colby who - after holding out for more than Atlanta wants to pay and threatening arbitration - signs with us at his present 1.2 because he misses us just that much.... which allows us to move Kennedy to Crosby's wing for whirlwind action on the first line.
Then we sign Pesonen to a 1 million deal as Sykora's replacement. We all agree this is not super sexy. Yet - we're now at 53.5 million with one top6 winger to sign. Gah! If the cap doesn't drop (I think it will), that's 3 million left, and we'd need a bit of room to call up people when injuries happen. So, incoming UFA at 2.5 max unless we plan on playing Caputi there. For everyone screaming about Pesonen being nothing but silly, unrealistic hope on my part (might be).... drop him then. Sign Sykora for 2.5 or someone else. Just remember that then the available funds for the remaining winger drop that much more.


Kunitz (3.7) Crosby (8.7) Kennedy (0.725)
XXXXXXXXX Malkin (8.7) Pesonen (1)
Cooke (1.2) Staal (4) Colby (1.2)
Talbot (1.1) Zigomanis (0.9) Godard (0.75)
Extras from WBS: Jeffrey, Caputi, BizzNasty.... Tangradi, Vitale etc.

Sarge (5) Orpik (3.7)
Letang (0.85) Eaton (2)
Goligoski (1.2) Scuderi (2)
Lovejoy (0.85)

Fleury (5)
Curry (0.5)



I think it is clear that there will be no big names coming unless someone big leaves... or Jagr comes through as the knight(cap) in shiny armor (I think my Pesonen case is about 100x as realistic ). Shero has to earn his wages in the years to come.
While I would switch Armstrong and Kennedy in your lineup, this is pretty close to the formula I see being most likely. I don't see the point in Breaking up the 3rd line which has good chemistry to move Kennedy up and then having to replace him with someone more expensive. Kennedy does a lot of the puck moving for that line.

Even if it isn't Armstrong they bring in we are going to have to acquire 2 cheap top six wingers, to make some cap room for upgrade to Malkin's line. I'm much more comfortable with a Rookie like Caputi or Pessonen playing with Malkin and say Kovalev than letting Gill and Scuderi walk and having 2 rookie D as the Third pairing. This team hasn't exactly struggled to score.

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