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Swine flu outbreak -possible pandemic

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Old
04-29-2009, 06:13 PM
  #101
nanuuq
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Originally Posted by TheHMan View Post
Seeing as you work in the field... what's your opinion of this virus and how long do you think it has been going around?

I just get the sneaking suspicion that this bug has been traveling around for a while, and the wacko combination of genes seems to suggest that as well. In March my entire family got sick from the flu and it kept most of us out for a week. 5/6 of us had the flu shot already but we all got sick, which was quite odd. Outside my family, a number of my friends and other people that they know have been sick recently.

I suspect it might have been something that mutated away from what the previous flu shot covered and that it's been circulating near the end of the flu season and then made it's way to Mexico. 20 million people there, and complicating factors like pollution and poor health care may have brought up the red flag recently. There's no way to know for sure, but I just find it highly suspicious how many people I know that have been sick this season. It was way out of the norm.
The flu virus has 3 host species: Pigs, Birds and Humans.

Usually the virus stays in the species and the mutations from year to year just require new vaccines (the common cold is the same in its changability). People get sick, but generally get over it (although many young and old do die)

BUT When people live together with Pigs and Chickens (as you find in many parts of the world) you can have the virus jump species and mix its protein coats into a new variant that is so different from what has been seen before, the at it causes a big antibody reaction, esp. in healthy adult people.

In humans, this congestion of the lungs ends in death (esp in the old days) not so much now with modern lung ventialation equipment.

However its a matter of numbers. If 1,000,000 Canadians are sick at the same time and need ventilation and hospital treatment, they will not get it and there will be deaths.

Further one vector of the bird variant of the flu is the mass migration of birds to the arctic every summer where they mix the avian flu variants from all over the world, and then bring it back south for winter.

As for this current epidemic, I think there is reason for caution, but not panic.

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Old
04-29-2009, 06:47 PM
  #102
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7 cases of Swine flu here in Ottawa...


Is what I was told this evening in my briefing at work. Not sure if the News has this reported or if they are even aware of it at this point.

Apparently they are mild cases but there are definately 7 people here in Ottawa that have it.

Just an fyi...

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04-29-2009, 07:30 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by DeJong View Post
7 cases of Swine flu here in Ottawa...


Is what I was told this evening in my briefing at work. Not sure if the News has this reported or if they are even aware of it at this point.

Apparently they are mild cases but there are definately 7 people here in Ottawa that have it.

Just an fyi...
I was at the General Tues morning with a sick friend and there were some airport workers in masks in the Emerg who had been exposed to the virus. I don't know if they were getting anti-viral or what, but it sure makes you glad for advanced medicine.

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Old
04-29-2009, 07:44 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by DeJong View Post
7 cases of Swine flu here in Ottawa...


Is what I was told this evening in my briefing at work. Not sure if the News has this reported or if they are even aware of it at this point.

Apparently they are mild cases but there are definately 7 people here in Ottawa that have it.

Just an fyi...
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Health/...932/story.html

this was posted an hour ago on the citizen's site, saying that all suspected cases have come back negative?

not calling you a liar or anything, but it's a pretty recent update from the "news" so i'm wondering if you can comment on this

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04-29-2009, 08:51 PM
  #105
Bobby Blowhard
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I'm in Dallas and the panic here is pretty crazy. A 2 yr old died in south Texas today and there are a dozen or so confirmed cases in the metroplex. Every school in Fort Worth has closed until next friday, other counties are following suit like dominoes, those that remain open have cancelled all athletics. Face masks selling out and I've heard callers on the radio calling to have the border with Mexico sealed and defended by the army. I think this is the type of situation that makes your average Texan feel like a genius for having 3 boxes of ammo stashed in the garage

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04-29-2009, 09:05 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Bobby Blowhard View Post
I'm in Dallas and the panic here is pretty crazy. A 2 yr old died in south Texas today and there are a dozen or so confirmed cases in the metroplex. Every school in Fort Worth has closed until next friday, other counties are following suit like dominoes, those that remain open have cancelled all athletics. Face masks selling out and I've heard callers on the radio calling to have the border with Mexico sealed and defended by the army. I think this is the type of situation that makes your average Texan feel like a genius for having 3 boxes of ammo stashed in the garage
Can you guys imagine how it is to live in Mexico-City right now?
If you consider Texas being in panic mode, Mexico-City is far beyond. Authorities do their utmost from prevent the virus from spreading. And in fact numbers here aren't that bad, pretty comparable to an ordinary influenza outbreak. This is pretty much a psycho thing. The country needs international assistance and support. That's the way to solve it.

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04-29-2009, 10:40 PM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sood07 View Post
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Health/...932/story.html

this was posted an hour ago on the citizen's site, saying that all suspected cases have come back negative?

not calling you a liar or anything, but it's a pretty recent update from the "news" so i'm wondering if you can comment on this
Well quite possibly the news doesn't have the info that I have been briefed about at work. An update 20 minutes ago was that the QCH could not confirm that they had some more cases. That's all I know for now...
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Old
04-29-2009, 10:44 PM
  #108
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I'm going to Mexico in the middle of May. If I don't make it back, it's been an honor moderating all of you...

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Old
04-29-2009, 10:45 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheHMan View Post
Seeing as you work in the field... what's your opinion of this virus and how long do you think it has been going around?

I just get the sneaking suspicion that this bug has been traveling around for a while, and the wacko combination of genes seems to suggest that as well. In March my entire family got sick from the flu and it kept most of us out for a week. 5/6 of us had the flu shot already but we all got sick, which was quite odd. Outside my family, a number of my friends and other people that they know have been sick recently.

I suspect it might have been something that mutated away from what the previous flu shot covered and that it's been circulating near the end of the flu season and then made it's way to Mexico. 20 million people there, and complicating factors like pollution and poor health care may have brought up the red flag recently. There's no way to know for sure, but I just find it highly suspicious how many people I know that have been sick this season. It was way out of the norm.

First the flu vaccine does not prevent you from getting the flu. It only protects you from a bunch of flu virusus not all of them. Doctors or whoever study this, basically take a guess at what the most common flu virus will be for this winter.

I'll add more to this later, but I have to run for work...
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04-29-2009, 10:52 PM
  #110
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I'm going to Mexico in the middle of May. If I don't make it back, it's been an honor moderating all of you...
If you don't have a very good, essential reason to travel, simply don't do it. It is not about the disease hazard only. Life here is and will be for the foreseable future severly disrupted, it is not at all funny, believe me.

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Old
04-29-2009, 11:08 PM
  #111
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The USA wants to close their borders...this is what this fake panddemic scare is all about. Just wait and watch!
It's beginning to look that way.

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Old
04-29-2009, 11:37 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Disgruntled View Post
Has this spread to Ottawa at all? I have the immune system of a child (literally) and this could potentially kill me.
We'll you'd be shocked to hear majority of cases are 16-30 or so, heard its effective against people with good immune systems. Also it shouldn't spread too much as summer is approaching and according to CNN Viruses do not spread over summer months well, if true they could very well have a vaccine for it, if it were to become an issue.

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04-30-2009, 12:19 AM
  #113
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Chevy, dont put words in my mouth, I didnt say anything about fear, Im not afraid at all, enlightened yes. And with all of the misinformation being spread I'd rather spread the truth. Rockefeller is still alive though get your facts straight, he was at the Bilderberger meeting @ The Brook Street hotel 2 years ago...and was interviewed last year. Whether you believe that the US is moving into being isolated country is obviously your prerogative, but know that they will be attempting to Federalize the police, banks, and hospitals by the end of the summer ... and their true desire is to impliment Marshall Law and close the boarders. Now the New (ish) NA trade agreement also stipulates that any of (Mexico, USA, Canada's) militaries can be mobilized in any others country for as little as property damage...please research everything I say and then develop your own opinion, but in the mean time watch and see what transpires!

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04-30-2009, 12:33 AM
  #114
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Bang on Huston!

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Old
05-04-2009, 12:06 AM
  #115
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Anything new? story seems to have died.

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Old
05-04-2009, 01:02 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by nanuuq View Post
The flu virus has 3 host species: Pigs, Birds and Humans.
What are you talking about?

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Old
05-04-2009, 03:15 AM
  #117
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What are you talking about?
When different strains of flu viruses (aka having different genetic code) can be found in the same host they can exchange bits of their DNA making a whole new strain which is what we see now in the current swine flu going around. The current swine flu virus has been tracked back to have had contributions from both human flu viruses and avian flu viruses.

...and did you bother to read the rest of Nanuuq's post? He basically said it all afterward...

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05-04-2009, 09:28 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by KwanTuM View Post
When different strains of flu viruses (aka having different genetic code) can be found in the same host they can exchange bits of their DNA making a whole new strain which is what we see now in the current swine flu going around. The current swine flu virus has been tracked back to have had contributions from both human flu viruses and avian flu viruses.

...and did you bother to read the rest of Nanuuq's post? He basically said it all afterward...
Influenza can infect alot more species then just pigs and birds.

And the idea that a virus can mix together in another species and then be way more deadly is both true and more complicated then he described. If, like bird flu, the influenza virus has a very strong reaction with our immune system, then it will have a hell of a time getting passed between humans. In general, viruses that kill their hosts will have more trouble being passed on, especially in today's sterile world. Unless they kill their hosts very slowly like hep C or HIV or the bad variants of pap.

But just because influenzae gets scrambled in another species, doesn't mean that it will necessarily be any more lethal then seasonal flu. It looks like this swine flu isn't all that dangerous.

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