If the Avs really want Harding they should just sign him to an offer sheet.
because they're vulnerable to this, they will most likely trade him before July 1st to maximize their return. It will be a bidding war between the teams desperate for a goalie on draft day, I'm pretty sure. Philly, Colorado, Edmonton, maybe St. Louis and Toronto too.
But you're right the compensation will be lower than many on here think because of that offer sheet threat. Also goalies are always way overvalued on here too.
I still don't think Wolski for Harding will happen. Wolski is more valuable to the Avs than Harding to Minny, and Wolski is more proven than Harding too, though they both have similar potential. Add to that the in-division nature of the trade and having to play against any mistake you make here, and both teams will be rightfully wary.