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TSN - Expected 2009-2010 Cap at $55M

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Old
05-21-2009, 09:54 PM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UseYourAllusion View Post
Being as consistently successful as they have been with firsts is no small feat. And they have one of the better prospect pools right now.
1st round picks are supposed to be NHL players. To what degree is the question. That's why they're 1st round picks.

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Late. And they haven't worked out.
It's when your scouts earn their money. Teams like the Red Wings seem to produce them with regularity after round 1 AND have similar success in round 1 (when they do them).

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05-21-2009, 09:54 PM
  #52
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I just have a question about 10-11.

Even with the recession, attendance figures have gone up pretty much all over the league and we're seeing record numbers in TV viewership and revenue.

I haven't seen many numbers on STH renewals yet, but I know the Sabres had a 94% renewal rate for a team that's missed the playoffs the past couple years.

Obviously you have black holes in places like TB and Phoenix, but loads of NHL teams still have very solid attendance figures.

So this I find this "guarantee" that the cap will drop by 10 mill to be somewhat premature. Does anyone even have attendance or revenue numbers that back up this trend?

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05-21-2009, 09:57 PM
  #53
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I'm not a southern team hater, those markets working out is going to be great for the league, but right now it's what's holding them back. I don't believe hockey-related revenues is tickets and concessions.

Everyone around me I know renewed their season tickets, as did I, but hope to sell more next year.

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05-21-2009, 09:59 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
I'm not a southern team hater, those markets working out is going to be great for the league, but right now it's what's holding them back. I don't believe hockey-related revenues is tickets and concessions.

Everyone around me I know renewed their season tickets, as did I, but hope to sell more next year.
San Jose was the No.1 team in the regular season and they pretty much admitted they would have lost money even if they had made the SCF. That's a team that's been around for a while, has been a contender for a while, and should have a strong local presence.

They don't.

TB won a Cup 5 years ago and now they have one of the worst attendances in the league. For more examples of why FLA sucks as a sports place, look at the Marlins who have 2 WCs in the last 11 years, consistently field decent (if very cheap) teams and can't draw more than 10,000 per night.

If it ain't football, Florida ain't interested.

The NHL for some reason decided to put 2 teams there. Fail. Neither one of them is financially viable.

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Old
05-21-2009, 10:03 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
1st round picks are supposed to be NHL players. To what degree is the question. That's why they're 1st round picks.
2002- Joni Pitkanen
2003- Jeff Carter and Richards
2005- Steve Downie
2006- Claude Giroux
2007- JVR
2008- Luca Sbisa

With Joni coming around, I'd say they've done better than just selecting "NHL players" with their first round picks, only Downie seems to be a misstep. Many, many first round picks never even become NHL players, over the last several years the Flyers have taken guys who more then make the NHL.

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Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
It's when your scouts earn their money. Teams like the Red Wings seem to produce them with regularity after round 1 AND have similar success in round 1 (when they do them).
The Red Wings are very much the exception to the rule.

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05-21-2009, 10:11 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Dig Out Your Soul View Post
Yeah I believe that's how it works (keep in mind my earlier comments about being stupid when it comes to economics). 2/3rds of the remaining salary over twice the remaining years is my understanding of what counts against the cap.
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Originally Posted by Dig Out Your Soul View Post
As an example, Darcy Tucker was owed $9M over the remaining three years of his deal. The Leafs bought him out at 2/3rds, $6M, which will be paid out over twice the length of the remaining years, six years. So their cap hit for buying out Tucker is $1M for 6 years.

This is correct. We could buy out Briere right now for a cap hit of roughly 1.9 mil for the next 12 years.

These are the B/O's for the remainder of Briere's contract

season ending - B/O amount - # of yrs of B/O
09 - 1.89 mil - 12 yrs
10 - 1.73 mil - 10 yrs
11 - 1.58 mil - 8 yrs
12 - 1.33 mil - 6 yrs
13 - 0.83 mil - 4 yrs
14 - 0.67 mil - 2 yrs


Ok, I just saw what others posted. This is what we PAY the player, not what our cap hit would be for him. I though it was different than what we owed the player but others were telling me I was wrong before. I guess I should have stuck to my guns


Last edited by phlocky: 05-21-2009 at 10:19 PM.
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Old
05-21-2009, 10:11 PM
  #57
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Here's my ranking of the Flyers first rounders since Forsberg.

Sbisa- Unknown (we're high on him but really we have no clue how he will urn out. We all thought pitkanen would be a star.
JVR- Unknown (see Sbisa)
Giroux- Good (could be a great pick but its too early to tell)
Downie- Bad (Fan fav or not, the guy hasnt shown himself to be anything more than a borderline NHLer at this point)
Carter- Good (In other drafts this would be a great pick but in 2003 it was a cant miss type situation...Guys like Getzlaf and Parise were drafted after him...this COULD be a great pick if he keeps scoring 40+ a year)
Richards- Great (He was drafted lower than Carter, nobody drafted below him is as good as him)
Pitkanen- Average (he could still turn out to be a good NHLer but he has had a lot of bumps in the road so far)
Woywitka- Terrible (Fringe NHLer)
Williams- Good (still somewhat young and a good player)
Ouellet- Terrible (12 NHL games)
Gagne- Great (top line player)
Zubrus- Average (a mid first rounder playing 2nd/3rd line role)
Boucher- Bad (Backup goalie)
Sittler- Terrible (never stepped foot in the NHL)

With 13 picks I count...2 Great pick, 3 good picks, 2 average picks, 2 bad picks and 3 terrible picks.

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Old
05-21-2009, 10:16 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
San Jose was the No.1 team in the regular season and they pretty much admitted they would have lost money even if they had made the SCF. That's a team that's been around for a while, has been a contender for a while, and should have a strong local presence.

They don't.
They actually average more on the road than they do at home. Their home attendance is mid-pack, but was at 100% capacity. When you spend a lot of money though, you stand to lose more.

It goes back to the 'what was the lockout for again?' idea. You still have teams who can't keep up. I never bought their argument then, and I don't now. The big markets dealt with it, they still have the deep pockets. I said back then if the Nashville's and Phoenix's of the league, then dump them. The league was doing just fine growing as a league when they were in Hartford, Winnipeg and Quebec City.

Quote:
TB won a Cup 5 years ago and now they have one of the worst attendances in the league. For more examples of why FLA sucks as a sports place, look at the Marlins who have 2 WCs in the last 11 years, consistently field decent (if very cheap) teams and can't draw more than 10,000 per night.

If it ain't football, Florida ain't interested.

The NHL for some reason decided to put 2 teams there. Fail. Neither one of them is financially viable.
Neither Florida team has a sustained level of success. Look at Dallas, here is a market in the south that had worked. They don't need 2 teams in SoCal either, but Disney had the expansion money so they got another one.

I also wish the Marlins would move, but that's not going to happen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by UseYourAllusion View Post
2002- Joni Pitkanen
2003- Jeff Carter and Richards
2005- Steve Downie
2006- Claude Giroux
2007- JVR
2008- Luca Sbisa

With Joni coming around, I'd say they've done better than just selecting "NHL players" with their first round picks, only Downie seems to be a misstep. Many, many first round picks never even become NHL players, over the last several years the Flyers have taken guys who more then make the NHL.
They're supposed to. I didn't say they didn't. The only one they missed on within the decade was Woywitka and he's just getting around to sticking in the league.


Quote:
The Red Wings are very much the exception to the rule.
Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall Paul Holmgren saying that he wanted to follow the Red Wings' model to building a team, and everything he's done has been the complete opposite.

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Old
05-21-2009, 10:21 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall Paul Holmgren saying that he wanted to follow the Red Wings' model to building a team, and everything he's done has been the complete opposite.
I don't recall him saying that, but I believe you. But who wouldn't want to follow the Red Wings model? They do it perfectly.

I wouldn't say the Flyers have been the complete opposite, but they're not in the same league. Of course, noone is.

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05-21-2009, 10:25 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
They actually average more on the road than they do at home. Their home attendance is mid-pack, but was at 100% capacity. When you spend a lot of money though, you stand to lose more.

It goes back to the 'what was the lockout for again?' idea. You still have teams who can't keep up. I never bought their argument then, and I don't now. The big markets dealt with it, they still have the deep pockets. I said back then if the Nashville's and Phoenix's of the league, then dump them. The league was doing just fine growing as a league when they were in Hartford, Winnipeg and Quebec City.
I personally think the whole "NHL in South" adventure was moronic in the beginning and its continuation is moronic. Dallas is the only borderline success story.

TB = Fail, total lack of fan interest
FLA = Fail, hasn't helped that the team has been bad most of the time, but still...
ATL = Fail, see FLA.
PHX = Losing 30 mill a year and last year, they were in the playoff hunt. Fail.
ANA = Very bandwagon, low attendance figures, borderline fail.
LA = See Anaheim.
SJ = Ices a President's Trophy winner and still loses money. Fail.
Nashville = Only reason they turned a profit this year was revenue sharing.

Those 8 franchises are just murdering the league. I know some of them have been bad, but a losing franchise in a place like Hamilton probably stays around even.

A losing franchise in Phoenix loses 30 million per year.

Plus, the NHL is all about rivalries. And to be frank, rivalries with Southern teams just suck. There's none of the notoriety, none of the intensity. Games against a team like FLA just become fairly mundane, no tension on the ice, no excitement.

The NHL needs to get back to its roots. Cut the league down and promote a lot more cross-conference play. Why can't we play the Wings 2 or 3 times? Why can't we play St. Louis 2 or 3 times? Why can't we play Colorado 3 or 4 times?

The NBA, for all its faults, has this down perfectly. There's a lot of cross-conference play, but games like Mavs-Spurs or Celtics-Lakers are still pretty heated.

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05-21-2009, 10:28 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
San Jose was the No.1 team in the regular season and they pretty much admitted they would have lost money even if they had made the SCF. That's a team that's been around for a while, has been a contender for a while, and should have a strong local presence.

They don't.

TB won a Cup 5 years ago and now they have one of the worst attendances in the league. For more examples of why FLA sucks as a sports place, look at the Marlins who have 2 WCs in the last 11 years, consistently field decent (if very cheap) teams and can't draw more than 10,000 per night.

If it ain't football, Florida ain't interested.

The NHL for some reason decided to put 2 teams there. Fail. Neither one of them is financially viable.
Very good points.
Its extremely frustrating seeing the brass of the league continually drumming the same note to the public when its glaringly obvious this league has, and has had problems. hockey is not a sport like football that in this continent will pretty much succeed anywhere you put it. Even 'americas favorite passtime' has had problems selling it to certain crowds like you noted. I honestly feel bad for the true fans of some of the expansion teams that are struggling, but its not fair to the fans and owners of the teams that do well to keep them afloat. I can't believe people get paid big bucks to continually fail at the same things over and over in this league, its disgusting actually. Its one thing to pitch a team or sport to a fan base, but to put the amount of money it costs to move and or open a professional franchise is obsurd and it damn well better not fail, unfortunatly for this comissioner and our league as a whole its failing across the board in many areas.

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Old
05-21-2009, 10:29 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post

The NHL needs to get back to its roots. Cut the league down and promote a lot more cross-conference play. Why can't we play the Wings 2 or 3 times? Why can't we play St. Louis 2 or 3 times? Why can't we play Colorado 3 or 4 times?
Because we're too busy playing Florida, Tampa and Atlanta.

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05-21-2009, 10:31 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UseYourAllusion View Post
Because we're too busy playing Florida, Tampa and Atlanta.


****, when we do play them, all the fans are Flyers fans. They love us! We put a little green in their pockets!

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05-21-2009, 10:32 PM
  #64
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I'm sorry, when I was in Atlanta anf florida a few years ago and ESPN still had the NHL I'd go to the bar there on ESPN/ESPN2 they had "alternat" programming showing some obscure college basketball game instead of the hockey game of the week. I aske people at the bar what channel the Thrashers were on and most people didn't even know they had a professional hockey team in town, they asked if it was an ECHL team or something.

I know there are some real fans down there but as a whole I'd bet that less than 10% of the people even know they have a team and I'd be surprised f even 1% actually follow the team regularly. If you've never gone out to the bar in Atlanta and tried to get them to out the hockey game on then you just don't know what the general public thinks about hockey down there. I wanted to throw up it made me so sick.

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05-21-2009, 10:33 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UseYourAllusion View Post
Because we're too busy playing Florida, Tampa and Atlanta.
Exactly.

I obviously care about any Flyers game. But realistically, am I more excited to play the Red Wings or the Lightning? The NHL wants us to think that Flyers fans are 4x more excited about playing the Lightning seeing as we play them 4 times and the Wings once.

Give 1 of those games to Detroit, 1 to St. Louis, and 1 to Colorado. Hell, I like playing anybody in the Northwest too.

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05-21-2009, 10:46 PM
  #66
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LA has very good support. The team just blows. If they ever won anything, they'd be a boon, that's generally how it is in LA, and most teams in the south. And the ownership has alienated the fanbase. Too many people to not care. I think it's a bit hasty to declare ALL southern markets a failure. Atlanta just doesn't have the demographics for a hockey team. They're better served being a suburban-based team. I don't think just because you lose money, doesn't mean you're doomed to shoestring budgets. If the Sharks had a lower payroll they'd for sure make money. They're putting forth the effort to win though.

Run your team the right way, and it will work out.

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05-21-2009, 10:48 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by dbr2 View Post

****, when we do play them, all the fans are Flyers fans. They love us! We put a little green in their pockets!
Hell, that's been the case when I've been up to Jersey for games. Playoffs included. Haven't been to the new building though.

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05-21-2009, 10:56 PM
  #68
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By the way, I don't want to open up cans of worms, because there would be multiple cans of worms, but if the Lightning trade Vinny, you won't have to worry about 2 teams being in Florida much longer.

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05-21-2009, 11:00 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
By the way, I don't want to open up cans of worms, because there would be multiple cans of worms, but if the Lightning trade Vinny, you won't have to worry about 2 teams being in Florida much longer.
It would crush any chance the NHL has left in Tampa. But I'm not sure that means the NHL would let the team move.

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05-22-2009, 12:24 AM
  #70
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try and move lupul carle and jones that's around 10mil and with knuble going that's another few mil... idk who'll replace lupul and knuble, but getting cap room is a big part of the game now a days

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05-22-2009, 01:13 AM
  #71
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For you guys bashing the southern team, I'll let you in on a little secret. Just a few short years ago (actually before the lockout) I used to go to Pittsburgh and Washington to see the Flyers play because I could walk right up to the window and buy lower level seats right at game time. It was pathetic how empty those places used to be for Saturday matinee games. I have no more respect for Pittsburgh and Washington because they have PROVEN to me that they flat out won't support their team unless they have a new superstar face to the franchise. Hell I'm talking about me and a buddy going to the Pens and Flyers in Pittsburg back when they had Mario AND Jarg both and they still weren't selling out. That's just plain aweful. I don't care if any of you post "numbers" saying otherwise, a buddy of mine and I did it every year going to a couple of games a year before my kids got too old and I started spending more time and money on them.

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05-22-2009, 08:57 AM
  #72
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Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
For you guys bashing the southern team, I'll let you in on a little secret. Just a few short years ago (actually before the lockout) I used to go to Pittsburgh and Washington to see the Flyers play because I could walk right up to the window and buy lower level seats right at game time. It was pathetic how empty those places used to be for Saturday matinee games. I have no more respect for Pittsburgh and Washington because they have PROVEN to me that they flat out won't support their team unless they have a new superstar face to the franchise. Hell I'm talking about me and a buddy going to the Pens and Flyers in Pittsburg back when they had Mario AND Jarg both and they still weren't selling out. That's just plain aweful. I don't care if any of you post "numbers" saying otherwise, a buddy of mine and I did it every year going to a couple of games a year before my kids got too old and I started spending more time and money on them.

Alright, I'm going to defend the Caps on this one (as a Flyers fan who lives down here).

When they moved from the old Cap Center to Downtown DC, the old guy that owned the team 1) Didn't really care about them and 2) miscalculated that he was actually re-locating the team. And they lost a ton of 'regular' fans.

Then they brought in their current owner, and the team starting moving forward. Then they got the cancer known as Jagr. It was a home run play that just blew up in their faces. At that point the team swore to not try quick fixes but build properly, and that's what we see now.

The question remains if the fans that pack the Verizon Center are bandwaggon, or if they're there to stay.

But they're also hindered by being in the Southeast Division. There old rivals are now in the Atlantic, and they're left with Atlanta, Carolina, and the two Florida teams. That means over a quarter of their home schedule consists of uninspiring teams.

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05-22-2009, 09:15 AM
  #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
I'm not a southern team hater, those markets working out is going to be great for the league, but right now it's what's holding them back. I don't believe hockey-related revenues is tickets and concessions.

Everyone around me I know renewed their season tickets, as did I, but hope to sell more next year.
I haven't renewed mine. I don't have the money to put up for two seats again, and mother ****ing ticket rep guy doesn't understand that. I wish I could meet him so I could punch him in the face and tell him to stop calling me.

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05-22-2009, 09:40 AM
  #74
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Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
1st round picks are supposed to be NHL players. To what degree is the question. That's why they're 1st round picks.
But they don't always work out, therefore when you have success you deserve credit for a job well done. The Flyers have also reached with some of their picks (Giroux) and they've turned out fantastically.

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It's when your scouts earn their money. Teams like the Red Wings seem to produce them with regularity after round 1 AND have similar success in round 1 (when they do them).
The Red Wings are not near the juggernaut in the later rounds in overall conversion that you seem to think. They've had a few remarkable successes in the near-past and they are living off the legend created by that.

Of course, the larger point is if the Red Wings were so smart, why weren't those guys picked in the first round so that they didn't risk losing them to someone else?

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Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
I'm not a southern team hater, those markets working out is going to be great for the league, but right now it's what's holding them back. I don't believe hockey-related revenues is tickets and concessions.
Holding them back from what, exactly? It isn't like even the major markets put up great national TV numbers. What's holding back the NHL is that NHL fans tend not to tune into other teams playing in the playoffs in any significant numbers. There isn't a "national" audience for the sport. If all the "good markets" would actually watch the other teams play their games in the playoffs, the NHL would have a massive national TV deal. However, that's not the case.

Of course, this is a 2+ billion industry, so discussing it as if it's an economic cadaver is idiotic as well.

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Everyone around me I know renewed their season tickets, as did I, but hope to sell more next year.
Which is great and all, but across the league they are almost certainly going to see a significant drop in season ticket revenue next year...and revenue is pooled, not an independent number. A team like the Flyers will be hurt less on the ticketing front, but some of these other teams that have been struggling to establish their ticket numbers are at risk to get slaughtered over the summer on this front.

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Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
San Jose was the No.1 team in the regular season and they pretty much admitted they would have lost money even if they had made the SCF. That's a team that's been around for a while, has been a contender for a while, and should have a strong local presence.
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/31/...s_Revenue.html

The Sharks are doing fine...if they're taking a loss on the season, it can't be too bad unless they're retarded. A problem for the Sharks is that they broadcast their games on a CSN network, so they're giving away that revenue. If you want to really get into the money, it's important to be tied to the network broadcasting your games so you can get the ad revenue -- true in every sport.

Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
It goes back to the 'what was the lockout for again?' idea. You still have teams who can't keep up. I never bought their argument then, and I don't now. The big markets dealt with it, they still have the deep pockets. I said back then if the Nashville's and Phoenix's of the league, then dump them. The league was doing just fine growing as a league when they were in Hartford, Winnipeg and Quebec City.
Well, this points to paying attention to the PR and not actually understanding what the lockout was about. If it had just been about the "weak markets" then there wouldn't have been a lockout because a number of mid-tier teams would never have signed on to the lockout and Bettman would not have had the BoG backing to go to war with the NHLPA.

The salary cap is NOT only about helping out the weaker teams. Hell, the salary floor is a direct example of how the current financial environment is not necessarily meant to make life easy for the weaker markets. The salary cap makes it a fairer market place for competing for players on the open market, but ultimately it isn't a guarantee that you can compete and turn a profit if you're owning a team in, say, Phoenix. Moreover, the salary cap DIRECTLY leads to the big markets earning a tidy sum if they get their ducks in a row correctly.

What the lockout was about was creating revenue security for the owners as a collective. For those that hated the lockout, that was what annoyed them so much -- as they didn't care at all about how it helped the competitive balance side of the ledger (which it has certainly helped). What the lockout created was an environment where no matter what happened the NHL itself was going to have a good business model. Where the outgoing salaries were tied to the revenue of the league as a whole. If the league grows...NHL players' salaries grow. If the league shrinks...NHL players' salaries shrink. What is that called? Financial stability and security.

Moreover, what the cap meant was that the financial giants could not dominate the market of free agents. For example, 10 years ago we'd be going into this offseason expecting to sign a big name player without losing anyone...right now we're talking about who we're going to jettison (some of them good players) to create space to sign someone else. That means you're going to see a greater spread of talent throughout the league, and greater parity and competition amongst the teams (just as you see with the NFL).

That's what the lockout was about. Owners' financial security, and helping to spur competitive balance.


Last edited by Jester: 05-22-2009 at 10:04 AM.
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05-22-2009, 12:30 PM
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Case in point for the Red Wings: the 2002 draft was supposed to rival other not-so-vaunted drafts as one of the worst ever. The Red Wings didn't have a 1st round pick and somehow managed to come up with 5 players from the draft. They also came up with a whole bunch of Swedish players during a time when the Swedish Junior system was thought to be subpar to countries like Slovakia and Switzerland (teams who regularly did better in international junior tournaments).

Drafting and coaching. All the way up the ladder. They get coaches to death and they spend a minimum of 2 years in the AHL, no matter who they drafted or where they were drafted.


The lockout -- what was wrong about a little fiscal responsibility? Why does it need to be dictated? If 27 owners just worried financial control and not giving in to having to give guys outrageous contracts because the market dictated it, there wouldn't have been a problem. There may be a market, but it's still on their dime, they chose to spend it. More owners have been a bit more conservative in the big contracts after the lockout and deliberately not spending to the cap because they don't want to.

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