Based on some basic calculations, I've determined that no matter what year Redden is bought out in, we're looking at $2.145M per year for twice as many years as are remaining on the deal when the buyout happens.
For example:
Scenario A: A buyout before 2009-10
Remaining Contract = 5 years X 6.5M = 32.5M Total
32.5 X 2/3 = 21.45
Double remaining contract length = 5 x 2 = 10 Years
21.45M/10 Years = 2.145M for 10 years
Scenario B: A buyout before 2012-13
Remaining Contract = 2 years X 6.5M = 13M Total
13 X 2/3 = 8.56
Double remaining contract length = 2 x 2 = 4 Years
8.56M/4 Years = 2.145M for 4 years
You can run the other years if you like, the numbers will check out. Basic formula for those who don't know = 2/3 of the remaining total contract cap hit divided by double the remaining length of the deal.
Long story short, no matter when the buyout happens, the cap hit of said buyout is 2.145M per year for double the remaining duration. Based on that, is there an optimal time for the team to make the move to recoup cap space? When do you think it is most likely?
My thought would be Scenario B, with 2 years remaining. I think a 4 year dead cap of 2.145 per isn't as terrible as it could be, and by that age, I think what little use he has left will be more than gone.
Buying him out now would save $4.355M in cap space for the next 5 years, but then cost $2.145M in cap space for the following 5 years.
What are your thoughts? It would be interesting how such an extended buyout would work if, hypothetically, the CBA expired in the middle of the buyout.
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Also, question to the board to anyone who knows, is there a provision in the CBA that would reduce the player salaries by the same proportion as the decrease in the cap? Would teams really need to cut players to get under the cap? Would either side really want to go through the process of releasing players and dealing with long-term buyouts to get under a league-imposed salary cap?
I thought the buyout goes based on how much money the players making that year, not his cap hit. Hence why Zetterberg and Franzen were signed to basically life deals, they could buy them out at the end with minimal cap hit.
I think Franzen was signed long-term to a frontloaded, so Detroit could lower the cap hit and then Franzen could collect most of the money of the contract before retiring with a few years left on it.
I think Franzen was signed long-term to a frontloaded, so Detroit could lower the cap hit and then Franzen could collect most of the money of the contract before retiring with a few years left on it.
Yeah, this is what I was getting at. Redden's contracts front loaded also but not to the extent that Franzen's is.
The only possible ways that Redden gets bought out is if management determines that he has nothing left in the tank or if his contract is becoming a hinderance to signing our younger core players.
If either of those things happen, he would get waived and play out the remainder in Hartford. Theres no sense at all in dealing with any dead cap space through a buy-out.
Not a good idea. They'll trade Rosival, replace him and Mara with 2, young, cheap defense prospects and play Redden at least the next 2-3 years. Sometimes, young legs with talent can make fading older players look a lot better.
If they do buy him out I can't see it happening with so many years left. The cap damage would be too severe, as illustrated above. That said, if he regresses significantly, I have no problem with stashing him in Hartford. That's both cap and fan friendly!
Actually, according to the salary numbers for Redden from nhlscap, the buyout cap hits look like this for a buyout before next season. These numbers aren't exact because I just cut decimal places since I was doing this by hand real quick using the guide under "Contract Buyouts" on this page: http://www.nhlscap.com/cap_faq.htm
09/10
.56 10/11-11/12
2.06 12/13-13/14
3.56 14/15-18/19
2.06
It's just not worth it. That's a hell of a lot of dead cap space for a hell of a long time.
Buy outs are based on the total real dollar amount remaining on the contract... not cap hits or averages or anything else. I am not basing this on anything but a faint recollection but I believe Redden's contract isn't front loaded. It's just $6.5m per year, paid and cap hit each year.
My belief is nothing happens with Redden this year. There's alot to consider. First is a new coach. We may have seen enough of Wade but Tortorella has only seen 20 regular season games and 7 playoff games, and we may not want to admit it but those 27 games were much better than his previous 62.
We don't care about buyouts because it's not our money, but rest assured, it is someone's money. Sather will need an ok to buy our that much contract and I'm not sure that's going to happen right away.
We are also dealing with people and egos. A buyout is the same as Sather saying I effed up. No, it's more than that. It's saying I really, really effed up. You have to think he's going to hope and pray that Redden lives up to this deal, you bank on better production with a new coach. You rely on something within Redden, like pride, sparking him to good play.
Ultimately, the cap doesn't drop for another season so I think they hope for the best out of Redden this year or a career ending injury... anything that takes the tough choice out of their hands. But if he plays like garbage and that cap drops $7m... a tough choice they will have to make.
We don't care about buyouts because it's not our money, but rest assured, it is someone's money. Sather will need an ok to buy our that much contract and I'm not sure that's going to happen right away.
He doesn't mind because he can pass the loss on to the ticket buyer, which is the same as saying he doesn't mind.
Also, I think a few tries at the waiver wire would happen before any buyout attempts are made. Him going for free or half price is better than buying out.
Apples and organges. Holik was a special case because under the terms of the new CBA there was a one time chance to buyout players without it counting against the (new) cap.
He doesn't mind because he can pass the loss on to the ticket buyer, which is the same as saying he doesn't mind.
Also, I think a few tries at the waiver wire would happen before any buyout attempts are made. Him going for free or half price is better than buying out.
I understand that. I would just think the question might arise "Why am I playing players to not play for my team?"
