HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Atlantic Division > Detroit Red Wings
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

2009 Wings Roster 2: Signings/Negotiations/Trades

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
05-26-2009, 08:50 PM
  #51
Fugu
Guest
 
Country:
Posts: n/a
vCash:
Personally, I think the cap will be the same, or possibly a mil higher. It makes zero sense for the players to not kick in the escalator. They give it back in escrow, but with linkage, we're just redistributing the money the players would get either way.

The biggest loss will be the decline in the CAD, and some sponsorship losses, but no idea yet on how that will turn out. If things start turning around economically by this summer to early fall, the NHL maybe will dodge the bullet.

And yes, the cap is based on this year's actual revenues (which ultimately are audited); with that figure, the NHLPA has the option of adding the 5% kicker by doing nothing to stop it. The league and NHLPA can negotiate a different figure as well.

 
Old
05-26-2009, 08:52 PM
  #52
solo16
Registered User
 
solo16's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: CT
Posts: 3,574
vCash: 728
Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
As a general rule, I think it's usually pretty safe to conclude that Bill Daly says what he's told to say. IMO his public comments are nothing more than a tool to exert some degree of pressure on the NHLPA to not employ their escalator, thereby giving the 7 or 8 struggling franchises that much lower of a salary floor to hit.

That guy was lying outlandishly about the situation with the Coyotes, so he's firmly on the 'spin doctor' side of my internal translator's ledger.



Doesn't the league figure the next years cap based on the actual revenue in the previous year, not estimated future revenue?

Here's what we 'know', given that the numbers out there may be wrong:

Attendance went up a whopping 167 fans a game, so not quite 1%.
Average ticket price was up 94 cents, so not quite 2%.

So, unless a bunch of businesses voided their sponsorships before the season even started, and I think that unlikely, the only thing that would serve as a significant drag on the cap number next year is whatever the decline in the Cdn dollar would cause on overall league revenues.

Honestly, I think if the NHLPA decided to use their escalator the cap would at worst stay flat, and it'd probably go up a mil or so.
Well my comment was more based on the fact that the entire ad industry retracted dramatically. For example those companys who were paying x to show their commercial during the game are likely paying less today (absent the preexisting contracts). That rule of thumb extends to every type of ad be it sponsorships, billboards on the ice etc etc. Companies today arent willing to pay as much on advertisements as yesterday, just a fact of this economy.

solo16 is offline  
Old
05-26-2009, 09:23 PM
  #53
Roy S
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,781
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
Well, considering the 'hard' cap Bettman and his braintrust crafted has loopholes in it large enough to drive a zamboni through, I can only guess that the reason they didn't go with a soft cap was that even they knew they'd fubar it.



The Blackhawks are so screwed. I mean, they'll certainly be a good team... it's not like they are going to fall of the table or anything... but their goaltending situation is a disaster, they've got a defenseman making over 7 mil a year against the cap who isn't a top pairing guy, and they are going to have to start handing out raises between this year and next to a bunch of young guys who will be RFA-eligible.

Barker's a RFA next year.
Kane, Toews and Keith will all be RFAs the year after that.
Kane, Toews and Keith can all command 6 million. Ouch. I just hope no other GM is dumb enough to take Campbell or Huet off their hands.

Roy S is offline  
Old
05-26-2009, 09:44 PM
  #54
VooX
Registered User
 
VooX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Canada
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,290
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by solo16 View Post
Well my comment was more based on the fact that the entire ad industry retracted dramatically. For example those companys who were paying x to show their commercial during the game are likely paying less today (absent the preexisting contracts). That rule of thumb extends to every type of ad be it sponsorships, billboards on the ice etc etc. Companies today arent willing to pay as much on advertisements as yesterday, just a fact of this economy.
Now you are finally making some sense. From the outset you seem convinced that this is a momentary dip. I feel the economic crisis has further reaching consequences.

How can there be a rise this year, a 7% dip next, and then a recovery with 5%, 8%, 9%, and 10% growth?!?

This is fantasy-land economics, Solo. As you mention ad revenues will have a depression as will corporate ticket sales and box seat revenue. Companies make some of these decisions on a multi-year basis, so they will cut back spending for more than one season.

In addition to ad revenues being sold for lower $$ per 30 second spot, corporate box rates will have to fall in order to remain filled. Until the Detroit-Chicago playoff series made non-final ratings records in the U.S. this year, hockey has not been getting strong ratings overall.

TV networks are making budget cutbacks, and sports is already a loss leader. That is, it costs more to broadcast a game than they earn in ad revenue from the broadcast. Networks do high profile events and sports at a loss to generate buzz about their networks in other programming.

A TSN rep was once quoted that TSN made more money on early morning exercise shows than they ever did on hockey or sports broadcasts. The fact that bars have TSN on all day because the previous night there was a game is a boon to ad exposure and TV networks know this.

In short, the NHL isn't creating a lot of buzz in the US. And the networks may be skeptical to pay a lot for the rights to broadcast hockey, so TV contract revenue will decrease in the future. Ironically, the SCF will probably get better ratings than the NBA finals if Orlando and Denver meet.

With all possible sources of revenue decreasing how can it be a short term dip in revenues followed by such outlandish growth, as you suggest? We haven't even factored in a US economy which may continue to slowdown or even hit deep recession before it recovers.

As well, HiHD makes a good point about the NHL PR department. Not a lot of credible info ever comes out of the league offices. It must be an executive order from Li'l Gary Bettman himself that the league never say bad things to the media. Between Phoenix and other teams we don't yet know about, I have a feeling the NHL is even weaker financially than we know about. If they don't get some investors with deep wallets soon, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of teams going under altogether, as I said before.

VooX is offline  
Old
05-27-2009, 08:16 AM
  #55
solo16
Registered User
 
solo16's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: CT
Posts: 3,574
vCash: 728
I said ads are down that has nothing to do with Gate in this circumstances. I expect gate / corporate boxes to stay the same or possibly even go up. (obviously corporate boxes are questionable).

I still think we will see the rebound as i predicted for the NHL. Not the whole economy just the nhl. Ad revenues may not ever recover though.

solo16 is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 11:02 AM
  #56
HenrikZ40
Registered User
 
HenrikZ40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: HockeyTown
Country: United States
Posts: 1,288
vCash: 500
These last two games without Datsyuk has showed me that Hossa can carry this team when he has to... I think he's been the team's best forward these past couple games. It will be tough to let a player like him go, that's for sure.

HenrikZ40 is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 05:26 PM
  #57
HenrikZ40
Registered User
 
HenrikZ40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: HockeyTown
Country: United States
Posts: 1,288
vCash: 500
Here's some inside scoop on the Hossa situation... sounds like he's here to stay. The info follows the Calgary bit, but the guy claims Detroit was VERY close to coming to an agreement before the playoffs, and will sign him shortly after UFA begins to a deal similar to Franzen's.

http://watch.tsn.ca/nhl/clip177025#clip177025

EDIT: I'd like to add, if Hossa's cap number is anywhere near Franzen's, I might build a shrine to Holland in my backyard.

HenrikZ40 is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 05:37 PM
  #58
petesrw
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 406
vCash: 500
I do not believe a word of "Hossa will be resigned". WITH WHAT CAP SPACE??? Any contract that's not... what... half his value? will push the cap over the limit and we would still need to bring other contracts onto the roster to fill the voids that Sammy and Hudler would leave.

Unless there is a recent quote directly from the mouth of Holland, I can't help but be very skeptical of what these other guys are saying. With a cap similar to this year's, the numbers just won't add up.

petesrw is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 06:18 PM
  #59
HenrikZ40
Registered User
 
HenrikZ40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: HockeyTown
Country: United States
Posts: 1,288
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by petesrw View Post
I do not believe a word of "Hossa will be resigned". WITH WHAT CAP SPACE??? Any contract that's not... what... half his value? will push the cap over the limit and we would still need to bring other contracts onto the roster to fill the voids that Sammy and Hudler would leave.

Unless there is a recent quote directly from the mouth of Holland, I can't help but be very skeptical of what these other guys are saying. With a cap similar to this year's, the numbers just won't add up.
Some pieces would have to be moved, that's for sure.

HenrikZ40 is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 06:20 PM
  #60
Roy S
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,781
vCash: 500
Personally, I don't want to lose 3-4 players to keep a forward who I don't consider to be better than Z, D, or Franzen (in our system). And, I really do not want to lose any d-men so we can keep him.

Hossa was a luxury for this year. But, in the cap era, I think we have a top 6 that is going to be as good as there is in the league even without him.

Roy S is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 06:24 PM
  #61
Fugu
Guest
 
Country:
Posts: n/a
vCash:
Quote:
Originally Posted by HenrikZ40 View Post
Here's some inside scoop on the Hossa situation... sounds like he's here to stay. The info follows the Calgary bit, but the guy claims Detroit was VERY close to coming to an agreement before the playoffs, and will sign him shortly after UFA begins to a deal similar to Franzen's.

http://watch.tsn.ca/nhl/clip177025#clip177025

EDIT: I'd like to add, if Hossa's cap number is anywhere near Franzen's, I might build a shrine to Holland in my backyard.
That's from Duhatschek, only one of the BEST writers out there, and soooooooooo well connected, it isn't funny. He's out in Calgary, and Hossa's agent is in Edmonton, and I'm sure they chat now and then to stay in touch....... The Hat sounded absolutely 100% certain. The only reason the Wings didn't get this done earlier is because of the tagging issue. Should be an interesting summer regardless.

 
Old
05-28-2009, 06:26 PM
  #62
Fugu
Guest
 
Country:
Posts: n/a
vCash:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scottwood View Post
Personally, I don't want to lose 3-4 players to keep a forward who I don't consider to be better than Z, D, or Franzen (in our system). And, I really do not want to lose any d-men so we can keep him.

Hossa was a luxury for this year. But, in the cap era, I think we have a top 6 that is going to be as good as there is in the league even without him.
I think Hossa is better defensively than Franzen. He also has a more consistent and illustrious scoring career, but the two guys are the same age. If Holland can sign both for about the same money, why would you cut Hossa? Franzen isn't better than Hossa, and he certainly doesn't have the speed.

 
Old
05-28-2009, 06:32 PM
  #63
HenrikZ40
Registered User
 
HenrikZ40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: HockeyTown
Country: United States
Posts: 1,288
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scottwood View Post
Personally, I don't want to lose 3-4 players to keep a forward who I don't consider to be better than Z, D, or Franzen (in our system). And, I really do not want to lose any d-men so we can keep him.

Hossa was a luxury for this year. But, in the cap era, I think we have a top 6 that is going to be as good as there is in the league even without him.
If his cap number would be as low as Duhatschek claims, I don't think it would take that much to keep Detroit under the cap. Plus, at that price, how can you possible say no as a GM. Even if it's as high as 5 mil/year, that's still ridiculously good value for a player like Hossa. You just can't pass that up.

HenrikZ40 is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 06:35 PM
  #64
Heaton
Moderator
#disapointment
 
Heaton's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Rochester, MI
Country: United States
Posts: 16,931
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Heaton
Let's say Hossa will sign for 4.5m/yr.

4.5m/yr for Hossa is undoubtedly a better deal than Hudler at anything over 2 or Samuelsson at anything over 1.7m. And that's the type of contracts that Holland is going for.

Heaton is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 06:52 PM
  #65
norrisnick
Registered User
 
norrisnick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 16,243
vCash: 500
If Kenny can get Hossa for $4.5M/yr he should get enshrined immediately.

norrisnick is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 06:57 PM
  #66
Winger98
Moderator
powers combined
 
Winger98's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Cleveland
Posts: 13,825
vCash: 500
Send a message via Yahoo to Winger98
I think the hopes of Hossa signing for anything less than $5.5m per (and then I think I'm being very liberal with what his cap hit will/would be) are in for a surprise. Duhatschek says the deal is similar to Franzen's, more likely meaning it is similar in structure. Winter, Hossa's agent, has already gone on record of making a side comment about seeing what's needed to be done and whether the contract will be 10 years or 12. No one is talking about cap hit.

Also, remember, while Franzen's blown the doors off (again) in the playoffs, his contract wasn't much of a deal when it was signed. Even now, his actual pay the next few years is probably pretty close to what his cap hit would have been if he went shopping for a new home over the summer.

So I'm not expecting some massively great deal with Hossa. And, if it's around a $6m per cap hit, I'd still let him walk.

Winger98 is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 06:57 PM
  #67
Roy S
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,781
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fugu View Post
I think Hossa is better defensively than Franzen. He also has a more consistent and illustrious scoring career, but the two guys are the same age. If Holland can sign both for about the same money, why would you cut Hossa? Franzen isn't better than Hossa, and he certainly doesn't have the speed.
Well, I'm assuming Hossa signs for a Hank-like deal. If he actually signs for what Franzen did, then you take him and make the roster work.

I just don't want to see any of our top 5 on D traded, and I want to keep Flip, Cleary, etc. Lilja will probably be gone under this scenario, and that's fine. But, I'm not sure I would want to part with Flip to keep Hossa. That 5-6 year age difference and the fact that Flip is about to enter his prime, and Hossa is about to leave it, would factor into my decision.

Roy S is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 07:01 PM
  #68
HenrikZ40
Registered User
 
HenrikZ40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: HockeyTown
Country: United States
Posts: 1,288
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
I think the hopes of Hossa signing for anything less than $5.5m per (and then I think I'm being very liberal with what his cap hit will/would be) are in for a surprise. Duhatschek says the deal is similar to Franzen's, more likely meaning it is similar in structure. Winter, Hossa's agent, has already gone on record of making a side comment about seeing what's needed to be done and whether the contract will be 10 years or 12. No one is talking about cap hit.

Also, remember, while Franzen's blown the doors off (again) in the playoffs, his contract wasn't much of a deal when it was signed. Even now, his actual pay the next few years is probably pretty close to what his cap hit would have been if he went shopping for a new home over the summer.

So I'm not expecting some massively great deal with Hossa. And, if it's around a $6m per cap hit, I'd still let him walk.
Then why wouldn't Duhatschek have said the deal was similar to Zetterberg's?

EDIT: I do agree, though, that anything lower than $5 mil/year sounds too good to be true.

HenrikZ40 is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 07:02 PM
  #69
HockeyinHD
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,939
vCash: 500
I do not see a scenario where Detroit could sign Hossa for even 4.5 million where they would be able to have a 22 man roster and get anywhere remotely close to a 56.4 mil cap.

Adding in Hossa at 4.5, Leino at 1 and Kopecky at 500k I end up with a cap number over 59 million bucks.

Even if the cap goes up to 57 or 58 million... squeezing that last 1-1.5 million bucks out of the roster is almost impossible. The only way it works is if the team only carries 21 guys from day 1.

And that's letting Hudler and Sammy both walk.

HockeyinHD is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 07:06 PM
  #70
Roy S
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,781
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger98 View Post
I think the hopes of Hossa signing for anything less than $5.5m per (and then I think I'm being very liberal with what his cap hit will/would be) are in for a surprise. Duhatschek says the deal is similar to Franzen's, more likely meaning it is similar in structure. Winter, Hossa's agent, has already gone on record of making a side comment about seeing what's needed to be done and whether the contract will be 10 years or 12. No one is talking about cap hit.

Also, remember, while Franzen's blown the doors off (again) in the playoffs, his contract wasn't much of a deal when it was signed. Even now, his actual pay the next few years is probably pretty close to what his cap hit would have been if he went shopping for a new home over the summer.

So I'm not expecting some massively great deal with Hossa. And, if it's around a $6m per cap hit, I'd still let him walk.
Yeah, I never felt our guys were that underpaid. If you go through our roster, other than Lidstrom and the guys on entry level deals, I think the majority of our team is making (in salary) what they should be making. Pavel probably should be making a little more and Ozzie and Kronwall should be, as well. But, at the time when they signed those deals, I didn't think they were getting a poor salary for their play. Could they have earned more elsewhere? Sure. Brian Campbell is making 3-4 million a year more than he should. But, that is on other GM's idiotic management. Holland gives each player a very fair deal. Hossa will be making no less than 6 million for 6-7 years. If it is a Franzen-like deal in salary cap terms, I guess I could see something like this:

First 5 years: $35 million
Next 3 years: $12 million
Last 2 years: $2 million

Even then, he still has around a $5 million dollar cap hit.

Roy S is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 07:09 PM
  #71
Roy S
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,781
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
I do not see a scenario where Detroit could sign Hossa for even 4.5 million where they would be able to have a 22 man roster and get anywhere remotely close to a 56.4 mil cap.

Adding in Hossa at 4.5, Leino at 1 and Kopecky at 500k I end up with a cap number over 59 million bucks.

Even if the cap goes up to 57 or 58 million... squeezing that last 1-1.5 million bucks out of the roster is almost impossible. The only way it works is if the team only carries 21 guys from day 1.

And that's letting Hudler and Sammy both walk.
Lilja is gone under this scenario. But, we would also need the cap to rise, and supposedly, it is going to drop next year.

Roy S is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 07:10 PM
  #72
HockeyinHD
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,939
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scottwood View Post
Well, I'm assuming Hossa signs for a Hank-like deal. If he actually signs for what Franzen did, then you take him and make the roster work.

I just don't want to see any of our top 5 on D traded, and I want to keep Flip, Cleary, etc. Lilja will probably be gone under this scenario, and that's fine. But, I'm not sure I would want to part with Flip to keep Hossa. That 5-6 year age difference and the fact that Flip is about to enter his prime, and Hossa is about to leave it, would factor into my decision.
I agree with that 100%... I just don't see how Holland could make it work. There has to be some kind of bombshell announcement that he's aware of which we aren't... like, for instance, Rafalski has told him that if the Wings win the Cup this year he's going to retire. Or Holland has a contact somewhere in the NHLPA that's already informed him that they will employ their cap bump, so he's planning on a 58+ mil cap.

I mean, the numbers are the numbers.

HockeyinHD is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 07:15 PM
  #73
HenrikZ40
Registered User
 
HenrikZ40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: HockeyTown
Country: United States
Posts: 1,288
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scottwood View Post
Well, I'm assuming Hossa signs for a Hank-like deal. If he actually signs for what Franzen did, then you take him and make the roster work.

I just don't want to see any of our top 5 on D traded, and I want to keep Flip, Cleary, etc. Lilja will probably be gone under this scenario, and that's fine. But, I'm not sure I would want to part with Flip to keep Hossa. That 5-6 year age difference and the fact that Flip is about to enter his prime, and Hossa is about to leave it, would factor into my decision.
Yeah, Lilja would definitley be gone. No way they move Filppula though... that just wouldn't make sense. Why bend over backwards to keep Hossa in Detroit, only to ship out the center he produces best with? Plus, management likes Val too much to consider trading him now.

HenrikZ40 is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 07:19 PM
  #74
HockeyinHD
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,939
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scottwood View Post
Lilja is gone under this scenario. But, we would also need the cap to rise, and supposedly, it is going to drop next year.
The problem is, unless the Wings just left Lilja's roster spot unfilled and went with 21 it's not like Lilja being replaced would really save any money.

http://*******.com/lqj9jm

Edit: Come on... we can't link to a tiny url site?

That's a 22 man roster with Hossa at 5.5 and all FA's returing at or below market value...

...and it costs 61.9 million. Assuming Hossa comes back, even replacing Hudler and Sammy with Kopecky and some other league-minimum slug barely gets the cap number under 60 million.

There's just no cap room there.

HockeyinHD is offline  
Old
05-28-2009, 07:25 PM
  #75
Roy S
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,781
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
The problem is, unless the Wings just left Lilja's roster spot unfilled and went with 21 it's not like Lilja being replaced would really save any money.

http://*******.com/lqj9jm

Edit: Come on... we can't link to a tiny url site?

That's a 22 man roster with Hossa at 5.5 and all FA's returing at or below market value...

...and it costs 61.9 million. Assuming Hossa comes back, even replacing Hudler and Sammy with Kopecky and some other league-minimum slug barely gets the cap number under 60 million.

There's just no cap room there.
Right, we would trade Lilja for a late round pick and not replace him on the roster. That saves us 1.25 million.

Roy S is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:38 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.