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2010-11: THE APOCALYPSE (all talk here)

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Old
05-27-2009, 11:20 PM
  #26
Hal Incandenza
 
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My God, the Predators have 27 mill tied up in 7 players for 2010-11. I actually thought your original list was for next year, and started checking only to find essentially every team with significant $$ committed, and not always to the core of the team. The cap is doing exactly what it was designed to do, I guess, and that is keeping salaries in line with revenues- now somebody needs to get the guys with banked massive contracts to throw a little towards the young guys. Or else Wade Redden and Campbell will find themselves quite unpopular.

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05-27-2009, 11:24 PM
  #27
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Keith can't be done until the summer of 2010.
Toews and Kane can since they are on their entry level contracts.

$3 mil for Keith. Come on.

Best +- for a D man in the league
8th in the league TOI for D men
20th in the league in D man points

and he is worth $500k less than Jeff Finger.


Oh and the arbitration judge would have a good laugh.

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05-28-2009, 12:42 AM
  #28
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The cap will be at ~$62mm by then anyways so it's really not worth bickering about.

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05-28-2009, 05:27 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topher42 View Post
Keith can't be done until the summer of 2010.
Toews and Kane can since they are on their entry level contracts.

$3 mil for Keith. Come on.

Best +- for a D man in the league
8th in the league TOI for D men
20th in the league in D man points

and he is worth $500k less than Jeff Finger.
Jeff Finger signed in 2008 cap dollars. Keith will be signing in 2010 cap dollars. You really need to figure that part out, it's tripping you up again and again and again. Btw, no one in the entire league thinks Finger was worth what he got even in 2008 cap dollars.

Keith has had one great year. I have every expectation of more great years, but he cannot ask for perennial Norris trophy money off of one great year, especially when he was somewhat inconsistent in the playoffs.

Quote:
Oh and the arbitration judge would have a good laugh.
He's still an RFA and the Hawks have the option to walk away from the ruling.

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05-28-2009, 07:32 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Keith has had one great year.
07-08 2nd in D-man in plus minus behind Lidstrom +30
10th in D-men with TOI
32 points

Quote:
Keith will be signing in 2010 cap dollars.
$3 mil for a a guy who has 76 pts , a plus 76, and logs +20 minutes a game the last two years. Yep those guys make $3mil a year and grow on trees.

Or let him him walk after an arbitration award.

Hey wait, you might be Pulford. Now, I see your logic.


$50 mil cap in 07
Ryan Suter got $3.5 in a RFA deal that year with a whopping +17 and 40 points over 2 years
Joni Pitkanen

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Old
05-28-2009, 08:01 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topher42 View Post
07-08 2nd in D-man in plus minus behind Lidstrom +30
10th in D-men with TOI
32 points
Decent year. Not great year.

Quote:
$3 mil for a a guy who has 76 pts , a plus 76, and logs +20 minutes a game the last two years. Yep those guys make $3mil a year and grow on trees.

Or let him him walk after an arbitration award.

Hey wait, you might be Pulford. Now, I see your logic.
No you don't. If you did, you would stop making stupid posts that indicate you still have no idea what is happening around the league in the upcoming seasons.

Keith might push his anticipated reward higher in the upcoming season... or he might not. He was underpaid for a while as well. But if the money isn't there leaguewide, the money isn't there. Get it?

Quote:
$50 mil cap in 07
Ryan Suter got $3.5 in a RFA deal that year with a whopping +17 and 40 points over 2 years
Joni Pitkanen
Difference being, in 2007 we didn't have a crashing cap and virtually every team butting up against the projected limit.

Man, you're having a REAL difficult time with this... I hope you don't do your own taxes.


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Old
05-28-2009, 09:29 PM
  #32
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I guess I am not the only one having a difficult time with this.


Quote:
'They've got way too much skill, and the only way we can eliminate their skill is by the salary cap getting involved,'' Babcock said Monday.

Babcock said he actually roots for players such as Calder Trophy finalist Kris Versteeg to score more goals -- at least when he's not going against the Wings.

''You may laugh, but it's the truth,'' Babcock said. ''When you're on the outside looking in during the regular season, you just keep hoping that No. 32 [Versteeg] is going to snipe one more and get another one and another one. The salaries just creep up, and they can't have all the players.''

There's a bad side for all teams when the salary cap kicks in and they can't keep a player they want.

''The scary thing about this new world is [the player] walks out and says thanks for everything and goes somewhere else for more money,'' Babcock said. ''That's tough.

Oh wait Keith will sign for $3 mil kane for $1.5 and Toews for $500k .

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05-28-2009, 09:54 PM
  #33
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And yet what Babcock is not mentioning is that even though he hopes the Hawks can't have all their players... no one else can have them either.

So they sign for what money is there.

I can lead you to water but you need to drink it yourself. Are you capable of understanding that there is a limited amount of salary available for players under a cap system, and that no one is exempt? Your Buffalo example from earlier seems to indicate you simply aren't capable of getting it.

There. Is. Nowhere. For. These. Players. To. Go.

Det: 12 - 12m

Babcock might want to look to his own team before criticizing others' cap situations. If the Hawks are "in trouble", where are they?

I will accept that Keith may get 4m if he plays as well next season as he did this. Otherwise, your sarcasm simply reinforces that you don't have a clue. None.

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05-28-2009, 10:18 PM
  #34
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So not one team will have cap space to make offer sheets?

Here's is few.
Atlanta 4 players $14 mil
Vancouver 6 players $15.2 mil
Toronto 6 players $18. mil

So Keith is now worth $4 mil, so what are Toews and Kane worth? Barker, Versteeg, Bolland? and who is going to replace Havlat's 77 pts ?

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Old
05-28-2009, 10:27 PM
  #35
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A different way of looking at it: here's how much per player teams have to spend. As you can see, far from being in "cap trouble", the Hawks are squarely in the middle of the pack. Half the league is in worse shape.

1. Van: 16 - 2.19
2. Clb: 13 - 2.15
3. Atl: 18 - 2.06
4. Mtl: 16 - 2
5. Tor: 17 - 1.94
6. Nyi: 13 - 1.92
7. Stl: 15 - 1.87
8. Phx: 14 - 1.86
9. Car: 15 - 1.8
10. Dal: 17 - 1.76
11. Ana: 16 - 1.75
12. Min: 14 - 1.64
13. Lak: 10 - 1.6
14. Nas: 15 - 1.6
15. Chi: 16 - 1.56
16. Col: 18 - 1.56
17. Wsh: 14 - 1.43
18. Sjs: 15 - 1.33
19. Flo: 13 - 1.31
20. Tbl: 14 - 1.29
21. Bos: 15 - 1.27
22. Njd: 13 - 1.23
23. Cgy: 12 - 1.08
24. Buf: 13 - 1
25. Det: 12 - 1
26. Edm: 11 - 1
27. Pit: 12 - 1
28. Nyr: 15 - 0.93
29. Ott: 13 - 0.85
30. Phi: 11 - 0.63

If teams such as Vancouver, Montreal, or Toronto are going to poach players from teams in cap trouble, are they going to fork over multiple first round picks or be forced to trade for Hawk RFAs, or are they going to go for UFAs for free? Are they going to give up significant assets for Hawks or are they going to GAIN significant assets by taking on salaries from teams that have to shed?

Look at the league wide situation before you make the same mistake Topher has (over and over and over).

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Old
05-28-2009, 10:40 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topher42 View Post
So not one team will have cap space to make offer sheets?

Here's is few.
Atlanta 4 players $14 mil
Vancouver 6 players $15.2 mil
Toronto 6 players $18. mil
They could.

But again, as I asked before, are they going to fork over serious and very significant assets for RFAs, or are they going to pick up cheap UFAs for free or salary dumps from the teams that really ARE in serious trouble with additional assets?

The answer should be obvious. There's a reason even in less cap strangled times RFAs don't go anywhere.

Quote:
So Keith is now worth $4 mil, so what are Toews and Kane worth? Barker, Versteeg, Bolland?
All of them what I said. I didn't mention Versteeg and I am not sure what the Hawks should do with him nor do I know what he is going to ask for in salary; unlike most the others he is a free agent now, not 2010.

Quote:
and who is going to replace Havlat's 77 pts ?
Havlat is the one player we might be able to sign to long term deal for less than market value the way the Wings did with Franzen. If you assume Havlat retires (or suffers a career ending injury, this is HAVLAT after all) before the end of it he will get the same amount of money as he would otherwise, at a lower cap hit. We know the Hawks are in fact trying to do this.

If he walks, someone will step up. Beach, perhaps. 77 points is stretching it, but building a hockey team is not a straight point sum situation.

I can't "prove" anything to you. I presented the numbers. We'll know for sure July 2010. You've given no reason whatsoever to believe that the Hawks will need to be dismantled because you've failed to demonstrate why teams would 1. be able to, and 2. be willing to target RFAs rather than UFAs and salary dumps. If you think that is an unfair assessment, then let's see your argument that the Hawks AREN'T going to be able to maintain the core of their team, and why. Where the players are going, for how much you believe they will sign for.

And for your sake, I hope it stands on better ground than "Buffalo will throw the bank at Kane!" while completely ignoring their own cap situation, let alone the league's.

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Old
05-28-2009, 10:52 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazy_Ike View Post
A different way of looking at it: here's how much per player teams have to spend. As you can see, far from being in "cap trouble", the Hawks are squarely in the middle of the pack. Half the league is in worse shape.

1. Van: 16 - 2.19
2. Clb: 13 - 2.15
3. Atl: 18 - 2.06
4. Mtl: 16 - 2
5. Tor: 17 - 1.94
6. Nyi: 13 - 1.92
7. Stl: 15 - 1.87
8. Phx: 14 - 1.86
9. Car: 15 - 1.8
10. Dal: 17 - 1.76
11. Ana: 16 - 1.75
12. Min: 14 - 1.64
13. Lak: 10 - 1.6
14. Nas: 15 - 1.6
15. Chi: 16 - 1.56
16. Col: 18 - 1.56
17. Wsh: 14 - 1.43
18. Sjs: 15 - 1.33
19. Flo: 13 - 1.31
20. Tbl: 14 - 1.29
21. Bos: 15 - 1.27
22. Njd: 13 - 1.23
23. Cgy: 12 - 1.08
24. Buf: 13 - 1
25. Det: 12 - 1
26. Edm: 11 - 1
27. Pit: 12 - 1
28. Nyr: 15 - 0.93
29. Ott: 13 - 0.85
30. Phi: 11 - 0.63

If teams such as Vancouver, Montreal, or Toronto are going to poach players from teams in cap trouble, are they going to fork over multiple first round picks or be forced to trade for Hawk RFAs, or are they going to go for UFAs for free? Are they going to give up significant assets for Hawks or are they going to GAIN significant assets by taking on salaries from teams that have to shed?

Look at the league wide situation before you make the same mistake Topher has (over and over and over).
If you're going to poach a player though...Duncan Keith would be VERY high up on the list. If you call Keith's 07-08 "decent", well then there are not a whole lot of decent D-men out there, cause it was easily #1 D-man level. He'll be that good for a long time barring crazy dropoff. Somebody would sign him for however much they could get...it will be the second-tier guys who will be crunched the most. However if you're Duncan, it's not likely you'd want to go to an Atlanta who might be a playoff contender of sorts with a #1 Dman like Keith, but are a long ways off in every other category from the Hawks' future. He might just sign quick and easy, making that all moot.

Interestingly enough, many of the teams that look to have room in the list above....actually just have current UFA's that will probably fill the space, main culprit being Vancouver with Sedins+Luongo. Several others have internal caps, and are likely to be crunched MORE than average in the recession. Actually there could be some deals to be had from such teams- load up on rentals for the playoffs w/o cap. Philly....well they will almost certainly have to waive guys or something.

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Old
05-28-2009, 11:00 PM
  #38
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For a $50 mil cap
2,343,764 - 3,515,645 ..... 1st and 3rd etc.
3,515,645 - 4,687,527 ..... 1st, 2nd and 3rd
4,687,527 - 5,859,412 ..... 1st x2, 2nd & 3rd
5,859,412 or more ......... 1st x4

Keith at $3 mil is only worth a 1st and and 3rd, done in a heartbeat

Is Toews and Kane worth a 1st, 2nd and 3rd?

All it takes is one offer sheet and the Hawks are in a bind.

What do the Hawks do?

The problem with your average is that is ignores what holes have to be filled.

The Hawks have to fill the top line and 2 slots on the second (calling Buff a 3rd liner), the whole 3rd and 4th line.
On D that have to fill two slots of their top 2 D pairings.

Compare that to Detroit where they have their top line and 2/3 of the 2nd line filled and one spot in their top 2 D pairings.


Last edited by Hawkscap: 05-28-2009 at 11:11 PM.
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05-28-2009, 11:09 PM
  #39
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Signing Havlat to about $4 mil makes it really even tougher.

Let's say Toews Kane Havlat Keith all sign for $4mil.

That puts the Hawks at $41 mil for 10 guys.

That makes 12 guys for avg $750K. and that is not counting Barker Bolland and Versteeg.

BTW, I think Versteeg gets traded this summer.

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05-29-2009, 12:20 AM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topher42 View Post
Keith at $3 mil is only worth a 1st and and 3rd, done in a heartbeat
I think any offer sheet to Keith below 4.5m would be matched.

Quote:
Is Toews and Kane worth a 1st, 2nd and 3rd?
Any offer sheet to either of them would also be matched. In your worst case scenario where teams are ignoring UFAs for Hawk RFAs, I believe the Hawk management would eat the cap hit and buy Campbell out to make room. This would be about a 3.5m hit to the cap for six years, but enough room to keep all these offer sheets matched and survive the one or two years of low cap. Tallon, of course, would not keep his job if this actually happened.

Otherwise they will match and trade. The return for someone like Keith or Kane would be pretty darn good. I would hate to lose Keith, but I will be honest with you, if it wasn't for the PR campaign built around Kane and Toews, I would expect Kane to start improving his atrocious defensive game and effort by 2010 or I might welcome him being traded.

The key, however, to all three players is that most teams are not in a position to give offer sheets and the league situation favors desperate to sign UFAs, not offer sheets to RFAs, as I mentioned. There are a LOT of good UFA or potential UFAs out there in the next two seasons combined.

Quote:
The problem with your average is that is ignores what holes have to be filled.

The Hawks have to fill the top line and 2 slots on the second (calling Buff a 3rd liner), the whole 3rd and 4th line.
On D that have to fill two slots of their top 2 D pairings.

Compare that to Detroit where they have their top line and 2/3 of the 2nd line filled and one spot in their top 2 D pairings.
This part is true, though Detroit has their best player on the team unsigned (as a UFA) and no goalies (not a good place to be putting minimum wage quality) so it's not exactly great for them either. However, with (barely) the exception of the Kings the whole league has to sign at least half their roster, some drastically more. From five to ten teams will have high price draft picks to sign next two years as well, maybe more (a problem unlikely to affect the Hawks), with their corresponding higher cap hits. No one's core is intact.


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05-29-2009, 01:27 AM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topher42 View Post
Signing Havlat to about $4 mil makes it really even tougher.

Let's say Toews Kane Havlat Keith all sign for $4mil.

That puts the Hawks at $41 mil for 10 guys.

That makes 12 guys for avg $750K. and that is not counting Barker Bolland and Versteeg.

BTW, I think Versteeg gets traded this summer.
12 guys for an average of $1.75m. The cap will be at $62mm.

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05-29-2009, 08:11 AM
  #42
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Quote:
12 guys for an average of $1.75m. The cap will be at $62mm.
With most of the teams holding their season tickets prices,

http://www.nj.com/devils/index.ssf/2...preparing.html
Quote:
The cap could drop by as much as $2.5 million for the 2009-10 season from its current $56.7 million figure, according to NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly. Although Daly couldn't say, it is not inconceivable that the figure could fall to $50 million for the 2010-11 season
Where are the new revenues going to come from to get us to $62 mil?

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05-29-2009, 08:58 AM
  #43
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I thought with the new CBA that players' salaries were supposed to contract a certain amount in proportion with the cap, or was that just the initial switch for players with pre-CBA contracts?

Oh, and does anyone really believe that Toews would sign on offer sheet, especially after being made captain at such a young age? Keith, maybe. Kane maybe, though I'm sure he enjoys all the attention.

The thing I worry about the most is Campbell. Not just his contract, which does suck, but about what his contract does to everyone else on the team, especially the back end. Someone else mentioned this...how are Keith, Seabrook, and Hjalmarsson going to feel when they play better than Campbell at both ends or at least equal (Hjalmarsson)? If Campbell played a little better/tougher, it wouldn't be such a big deal. But I would bet that on some nights, when we have four defensemen playing their ***** off, they're going to be looking out at Campbell and wonder if they should be trying twice as hard for half the money.

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05-29-2009, 09:09 AM
  #44
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Quote:
thought with the new CBA that players' salaries were supposed to contract a certain amount in proportion with the cap, or was that just the initial switch for players with pre-CBA contracts ?
Intital swtich for players with pre-CBA contracts only. IIRC it was a 25% cut.

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05-29-2009, 12:01 PM
  #45
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What resource are you guys using to find contract lengths?

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05-29-2009, 12:39 PM
  #46
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What resource are you guys using to find contract lengths?
http://www.nhlnumbers.com/

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05-29-2009, 12:42 PM
  #47
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What resource are you guys using to find contract lengths?
nhlscap.com

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05-29-2009, 01:04 PM
  #48
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http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=297012

Rozner jumps on the apocalypse bandwagon

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05-29-2009, 03:00 PM
  #49
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After looking over the list of UFA/RFA's, I see four people who I would say have a 90-100% chance of returning next year. Those four are Cam Barker, Dave Bolland, Corey Crawford, and Ben Eager.

Let me be clear, I am not saying the rest of our free agents will walk. Rather, these are the four that I see the Hawks management doing anything to keep Blackhawks.

Now my question is how much do you think Dave Bolland and Cam Barker will command for their contracts? I was guessing somewhere in the 2-3 million range. Then again, Byfuglien did get 3 mil, so something higher isn't out of the question. What do you guys think?

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05-29-2009, 05:05 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topher42 View Post
With most of the teams holding their season tickets prices,

http://www.nj.com/devils/index.ssf/2...preparing.html


Where are the new revenues going to come from to get us to $62 mil?
The same place they always come from.

When you're making a projection of future events, it's very hard to make an assumption of something changing significantly. Therefore projections tend to take recent performance too seriously when extrapolating into the future.

The economy will start recovering and next year's revenue projections (for the 2010-11 year) will be overly optimistic, the NHLPA will trigger the elevator and the all of a sudden the cap will be at a level that's workable for everyone. If revenues are low, the players won't get much, if any, of their escrow money back.

There's zero point in talking about any of this.

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