HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk
Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk Trade rumors, transactions, and free agent talk. Rumors must contain the word RUMOR in post title. Proposals must contain the word PROPOSAL in post title.

Young top 6 wingers this offseason

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
05-29-2009, 10:13 PM
  #51
solo16
Registered User
 
solo16's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: CT
Posts: 3,574
vCash: 728
Quote:
Originally Posted by embracedbias View Post
The difference between 15th and 5th is not a 3rd round pick. Based on what the scouts and "experts" say, this draft has 7 top players and the talent drops off a bit (but is very solid, overall). I'm getting the impression that you don't know too much about this years draft. I don't blame you though... your team is still in the playoffs.
Obviously the difference is alot more than a 3rd. My response to the somewhat hostile attacks is the obvious fact that Fair value and actual value are two different things.

I think Filpulla is worth 15th overall. How often are players traded for hypothetical values? Never. Could he get the 5th overall or the 25th? Entirely possible.

As for your various condescending remarks about this being a deep draft and hints that all of the top 7 picks will be superstars... You need to stop drinking the coolaid. Fine me 1 year ever where all top 7 picks have been superstars? I will reserve my judgement of this draft over time and history rather than before they been drafted.

There are some great players in this draft no doubt, but to assume they will all be stars let alone NHL players is presumptuous. If I recall its fairly common for a draft to be worse than expected or better than expected. If this draft were to mimic the 2003 draft the 5th pick would be ridiculous overpayment. I do think 5th overall is overpayment really in any draft. But its not to a ridiculous degree and plenty of trades involve over / under payment to us couch GMs.

Again im not going to argue that he cant produce. I have had it too many times and I believe its a waste of time. Any Gm that shares your opinion will not be trading for Filp and wouldnt offer enough to get him. You can add alot of ifs, but my opinion is if we didnt have the two best defensive centers on the planet D&Z Filp woulda had 60-70 points as our second line center. It is highly unlikely he ever gets past 75. But for 3M thats not to shabby.

solo16 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-29-2009, 11:02 PM
  #52
JorgeRocks!
Registered User
 
JorgeRocks!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,445
vCash: 500
Would love to see Flippula in a Flames jersey....

My thoughts....Ken Holland and Detroit Management = Best Management in the league bar none. When they sign a guy to 3 million a year, they know what they are doing. In Feb of '07, they signed Holmstrom to a contract worth 2.25 million, during a 30 goal, 50+ point year. Flippula resigned in the Summer of '08, and inflation had not gone up that much. They are two very different players, and Flippula makes more than Cleary to. this guy is much like Jordan Staal IMO. Stuck behind two of the best if not the best centers in the game. If he got somewhere else...bust out.

Look at quincey. Doesn't even make the team, but top pairing in another organization.

If he goes somewhere else bust out....

As for value... The way I see it... From 1987-2006, there were 20 guys picked 15th overall. The 5 worst ones were the forgettable Jason Soules, Alexander Kharlamov, Matt Zultek, Scott Kelman and Jason Niinimaki. 8 of the 20 never made the show. The top 5 were

5. Robert Nilsson
4. Alexander Radulov
3. Danius Zubrus
2. Alexander Kovalev
1. Joe Sakic

I would take Flippula over all but the top two guys right now, so there is a 10% chance you will get a guy Flippula+ with that 15th pick IMO.

Now for the fifth pick

5 worst- Daniel Dore, Chris Joseph,
Stanislav Chistov, Ric Jackman, Vitali Vishnevksi

Five best

5- Jeff O Neil
4- Langkow
3-Guerin
2-Vanek
1-Jagr

Even there, i can see Flippula in the top 4 of that group. So a gm has a 20% chance of getting a guy Flippula+ with that pick. (I am a flames fan to.)

So somewhere between 5-15 is where his true value could lay just for a pick. My two cents...

Would love him in C town though....and other guys on this list

JorgeRocks! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-29-2009, 11:19 PM
  #53
embracedbias
Registered User
 
embracedbias's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Waterloo
Country: Canada
Posts: 5,917
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by solo16 View Post
Obviously the difference is alot more than a 3rd. My response to the somewhat hostile attacks is the obvious fact that Fair value and actual value are two different things.

I think Filpulla is worth 15th overall. How often are players traded for hypothetical values? Never. Could he get the 5th overall or the 25th? Entirely possible.

As for your various condescending remarks about this being a deep draft and hints that all of the top 7 picks will be superstars... You need to stop drinking the coolaid. Fine me 1 year ever where all top 7 picks have been superstars? I will reserve my judgement of this draft over time and history rather than before they been drafted.

There are some great players in this draft no doubt, but to assume they will all be stars let alone NHL players is presumptuous. If I recall its fairly common for a draft to be worse than expected or better than expected. If this draft were to mimic the 2003 draft the 5th pick would be ridiculous overpayment. I do think 5th overall is overpayment really in any draft. But its not to a ridiculous degree and plenty of trades involve over / under payment to us couch GMs.

Again im not going to argue that he cant produce. I have had it too many times and I believe its a waste of time. Any Gm that shares your opinion will not be trading for Filp and wouldnt offer enough to get him. You can add alot of ifs, but my opinion is if we didnt have the two best defensive centers on the planet D&Z Filp woulda had 60-70 points as our second line center. It is highly unlikely he ever gets past 75. But for 3M thats not to shabby.
I never said that they are all guaranteed superstars. There is no such thing. The value behind draft picks is potential. The players that are slated to be taken 5th overall all have much higher potential than Filppula. It is that simple. It may be possible, but it is extremely unlikely.

Find me an example of a player of Filp's caliber that has been traded for that high of a pick and I will agree with you. In fact, I have my reservations that he is worth the 15th overall on his own. A comparable trade would be Umberger last season (who was traded for the 19th overall). Umberger was coming off of a similarly great playoffs, but he scored 50 points in the season prior. Also, based on the trade deadline, first rounders seem to have higher value this year as compared to past years.

At the deadline Antropov was traded for a 2nd rounder. He finished the season with 29 more points than Filppula. At the time he was 3 years older than Filp. I think that when age, contract status (Antropov is an upcoming UFA), and playoff performance are taken into account, Filp would have slightly higher value than Antropov. Certainly not the difference between 50th overall and 15th overall, however.

embracedbias is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 01:39 AM
  #54
massivegoonery
Registered User
 
massivegoonery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Chicago
Country: United States
Posts: 11,318
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shelle121 View Post
I'd like to see Versteeg with a Kings jersey on.
I wouldn't mind getting into a Versteeg for a 1st swap discussion.

massivegoonery is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 01:51 AM
  #55
lefty2time*
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 2,109
vCash: 500
Wellwood...not ideal...but hey..he's a rfa ...wont be a big cap hit..and he could be had for not too much

lefty2time* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 02:53 AM
  #56
ThorntonFan19
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 3,803
vCash: 500
Michalek will not be traded. Clowe will be trade/offersheeted way before he is traded negating any reason in trading him at all. I doubt many fans think he will be traded (as if it even matters).

ThorntonFan19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 03:24 AM
  #57
um
Registered User
 
um's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 9,175
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boom Boom Geoffrion View Post
Zherdev
is he really id love him in washington to replace fedorov and play with semin

um is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 08:00 AM
  #58
solo16
Registered User
 
solo16's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: CT
Posts: 3,574
vCash: 728
Quote:
Originally Posted by embracedbias View Post
I never said that they are all guaranteed superstars. There is no such thing. The value behind draft picks is potential. The players that are slated to be taken 5th overall all have much higher potential than Filppula. It is that simple. It may be possible, but it is extremely unlikely.

Find me an example of a player of Filp's caliber that has been traded for that high of a pick and I will agree with you. In fact, I have my reservations that he is worth the 15th overall on his own. A comparable trade would be Umberger last season (who was traded for the 19th overall). Umberger was coming off of a similarly great playoffs, but he scored 50 points in the season prior. Also, based on the trade deadline, first rounders seem to have higher value this year as compared to past years.

At the deadline Antropov was traded for a 2nd rounder. He finished the season with 29 more points than Filppula. At the time he was 3 years older than Filp. I think that when age, contract status (Antropov is an upcoming UFA), and playoff performance are taken into account, Filp would have slightly higher value than Antropov. Certainly not the difference between 50th overall and 15th overall, however.
Nice post man. (i have no problem admitting it). That being said im not going to look up historical trades as its just to cumbersome. Anyone know a good trade database? Comparing Filp to Antropov and Umberger is a illuminating comparison. Not fully conceding but I thought your post was quite good.

solo16 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 08:31 AM
  #59
RC51
Registered User
 
RC51's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 3,641
vCash: 500
SO I guess I will do what others are doing
Habs need 6 top young forwards that produce 75points or more each and are big tough and dirt cheap and all this for future considerations.

Oh yes I almost forgot Vinny for Halak, (Ryder) Pleks and a 2nd.

The Habs deserve all this because I deserve it all NOW

RC51 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 10:17 AM
  #60
Shellz
Registered User
 
Shellz's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: California
Posts: 17,311
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by massivegoonery View Post
I wouldn't mind getting into a Versteeg for a 1st swap discussion.

Who do you have your eye on?

Shellz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 10:55 AM
  #61
embracedbias
Registered User
 
embracedbias's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Waterloo
Country: Canada
Posts: 5,917
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by solo16 View Post
Nice post man. (i have no problem admitting it). That being said im not going to look up historical trades as its just to cumbersome. Anyone know a good trade database? Comparing Filp to Antropov and Umberger is a illuminating comparison. Not fully conceding but I thought your post was quite good.
I respect you for saying that. I suppose that I should say that I agree that he would have probably have gotten at least 50 points this year, if not more, had he been playing on the second line for a team like Toronto. Stajan (also 25) got 55 points playing 16:55 minutes per game on the Leafs. While this is only 49 seconds more per game than Filppula, I just don't think that Stajan is really much better than him (he's probably worse). This is all based on how Filp has stepped up in the playoffs, of course.

It is always dangerous talking about trading for a high pick in the draft because it is the silver lining surrounding the crappy seasons that all of the fans of the teams in such positions (such as myself) have had to endure. When someone who's team is in the SCF for the second year in a row starts asking for a high pick... well you can imagine the motivation to retort. I apologize for being coarse. I can only hope that I will be more cordial when (if) my team is back in contention.

embracedbias is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 10:57 AM
  #62
massivegoonery
Registered User
 
massivegoonery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Chicago
Country: United States
Posts: 11,318
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shelle121 View Post
Who do you have your eye on?
Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi, I think, at number five.

massivegoonery is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 11:08 AM
  #63
solo16
Registered User
 
solo16's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: CT
Posts: 3,574
vCash: 728
Quote:
Originally Posted by embracedbias View Post
I respect you for saying that. I suppose that I should say that I agree that he would have probably have gotten at least 50 points this year, if not more, had he been playing on the second line for a team like Toronto. Stajan (also 25) got 55 points playing 16:55 minutes per game on the Leafs. While this is only 49 seconds more per game than Filppula, I just don't think that Stajan is really much better than him (he's probably worse). This is all based on how Filp has stepped up in the playoffs, of course.

It is always dangerous talking about trading for a high pick in the draft because it is the silver lining surrounding the crappy seasons that all of the fans of the teams in such positions (such as myself) have had to endure. When someone who's team is in the SCF for the second year in a row starts asking for a high pick... well you can imagine the motivation to retort. I apologize for being coarse. I can only hope that I will be more cordial when (if) my team is back in contention.
One interesting thing about Filp is hes never averaged much more than 1 min of PP time per game. Last year I think he had 3 points with 1:1x per game. This year he had closer to :50 per game and had 1 point. Two ways to look at that. 1 hes not very good on the powerplay. 2 he doesn't get much powerplay time and its only on the second pair. Either could be correct.

DZH
Hossa Franzen Samuelson(defense usually)
Hudler Cleary

Are all considered better options on the powerplay for forwards. Being 9th aint so great. That being said the guys on that list are all pretty good. Cleary/Samuelson are the only questionable ones and really they are about equal to Filp but with different roles. The other 5 are pretty solid performers. Take filps production 40 points+ 6 (conservative PP estimate with more time), +6 for better wingers in a top 6 role. 52 Points is probably a fair estimate for him last year on talent. 52 Point Centers arent so valuable. Was not a good year for him. Hopefully he improves next year.

solo16 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 11:31 AM
  #64
embracedbias
Registered User
 
embracedbias's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Waterloo
Country: Canada
Posts: 5,917
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by solo16 View Post
One interesting thing about Filp is hes never averaged much more than 1 min of PP time per game. Last year I think he had 3 points with 1:1x per game. This year he had closer to :50 per game and had 1 point. Two ways to look at that. 1 hes not very good on the powerplay. 2 he doesn't get much powerplay time and its only on the second pair. Either could be correct.

DZH
Hossa Franzen Samuelson(defense usually)
Hudler Cleary

Are all considered better options on the powerplay for forwards. Being 9th aint so great. That being said the guys on that list are all pretty good. Cleary/Samuelson are the only questionable ones and really they are about equal to Filp but with different roles. The other 5 are pretty solid performers. Take filps production 40 points+ 6 (conservative PP estimate with more time), +6 for better wingers in a top 6 role. 52 Points is probably a fair estimate for him last year on talent. 52 Point Centers arent so valuable. Was not a good year for him. Hopefully he improves next year.
I'm not sure who he was playing with in Detroit, but chances are that if he was on a team that he would be getting more PP time he wouldn't have much better wingers than he had this season. Stajan played with Hamilton and Devereaux at the end of the season.

embracedbias is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 11:32 AM
  #65
Le Rosbeef
Registered User
 
Le Rosbeef's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Country: United Kingdom
Posts: 2,467
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by projexns View Post
If I were Atlanta I'd put the 34th pick of the '09 draft on the table for him, and see if the Sharks could get a better offer.
Please go and speak to Waddell and make it happen.

I like Cheech but on his salary, and given the Sharks cap constraints, I would bite your hand off for an early second rounder to remove him from the books.

(Sadly I think other GMs realise this too and alas, a 2nd rounder won't ever be on the table for him!)

Le Rosbeef is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
05-30-2009, 11:45 AM
  #66
phlocky
Registered User
 
phlocky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 6,139
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Letang58 View Post
I'm sorry, but you are massively overrating Filppula here.

He had 12 goals this season, and you claim he is already a second liner. That's a huge stretch, then to suggest that he is going to be anything near Datsyuk is ridiculous.

He's a very good third line center, but it's kind of funny that you think the Wings will get the fifth overall pick for him.
I wasn't going to say anything, I was just laughing quietly to myself. reading that discription I'd probably trade Mike Richards for him straight up. I mena if he's going to become as good as Datsyuk then hell, you'd better trade Richards for him while you can right????

Hell, he'd barely be worth a late first in 2010 and certainly not anything in the top 15 of this years draft. I'd be very surprised if he cracked the top 50 centers in the entire league at this point and no I'm not joking.

phlocky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2009, 11:40 AM
  #67
Hal Incandenza
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 256
vCash: 500
I agree that the Hawks might trade Versteeg this offseason. If they re-sign Havlat, I think Ladd is a way better fit to fill out the top-six. Bolland is an obvious choice to also keep before Versteeg- although it'd be nice to keep Versteeg he is definitely the easiest place to get value + cut salary over the next couple years. Sick dangler though. What's his value look like? I'd cry with delight at the 5th overall, but certainly he's worth some sort of first and also the Hawks could unload some of their 2010 2nd rounders if a little more were to be added. Or the always declining in value Jack Skille.

Hal Incandenza is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2009, 11:44 AM
  #68
AKAY47
In Lombardi we trust
 
AKAY47's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Ottawa
Country: Canada
Posts: 5,301
vCash: 500
I can see Filppula in a Kings jersey..

What do you guys want from us for him?

AKAY47 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2009, 11:51 AM
  #69
Johnstarks
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 534
vCash: 500
I know you didn't want to add Lupul but like its been said before, he fits perfectly with your criterias.

Also, other top 6 fowards around 50 pts and 25 years of age that could be available IMO:

Andrei Kostitsyn
Tomas Plekanec
R.J. Umberger
Chris Higgins
Phil Kessel
Jordan Staal
Jiri Hudler
Dan Cleary
Martin Hanzal (a bit younger but I can see the Yotes moving him)
Phil Kessel
Scottie Upshall
Matt Stajan
Mikhail Grabovski
Robert Nilsson

Off the top of my head that is!

Johnstarks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2009, 08:35 PM
  #70
mdm815
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: pa
Country: Ukraine
Posts: 446
vCash: 500
K so now I suppose what teams are actually looking for top 6 players?

mdm815 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2009, 08:49 PM
  #71
solo16
Registered User
 
solo16's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: CT
Posts: 3,574
vCash: 728
Quote:
Originally Posted by embracedbias View Post
I'm not sure who he was playing with in Detroit, but chances are that if he was on a team that he would be getting more PP time he wouldn't have much better wingers than he had this season. Stajan played with Hamilton and Devereaux at the end of the season.
Hudler and Samuelson for majority of the season. Sometimes Cleary. He barely played with Franzen, Hossa, Datsyuk during the season. I suppose playing with competent non-superstar wingers isnt anything to complain about.

Hudler and Samuelson are pretty decent. But Filp did have decent even strength scoring so maybe my math is off.

I still contend hes worth about the 15th overall pick. Obviously Richards is a hell of alot better than him currently and probably in the future/forever. But he is your classic late bloomer. I never said he would become Datsyuk. I said he had potential... ie. There is some chance he could become that could. That is his ceiling. Probability of him being reaching his max potential is fairly low. But the skills are mostly there. (trade speed for Dangle)

solo16 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:05 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.