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Operating in the Era of a Falling Salary Cap

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Old
06-21-2009, 09:02 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by piston View Post
The league knows they are losing lucrative sponsorships for next season. This is a significant part of revenues and is directly tied to the poor economy. That is why there is concern of a precipitous drop in the cap.
What about an across the board pay cut like the NHL mandated at the beginning of the salary cap? The other option I mentioned in another thread was to change the contracts from a fixed dollar amount to a percentage of the maximum salary cap - that way it wouldn't matter if the cap number went up or down.

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06-21-2009, 09:04 PM
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Again...where were these figures "leaked"?
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06-21-2009, 09:13 PM
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Originally Posted by piston View Post
The league knows they are losing lucrative sponsorships for next season. This is a significant part of revenues and is directly tied to the poor economy. That is why there is concern of a precipitous drop in the cap.
I remember when the NHL lost their ESPN deal people thought the league would lose a significant amount of television revenue....which was not the case. There will always be companies willing to pay serious money in order to advertise. This will not be the reason the salary cap drops.....the sale of tickets and merchandise make up a large chunk of NHL revenue.....predicting ticket sales 1 year from now is nothing more than an educated guess.

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06-21-2009, 09:16 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by PSP View Post
What about an across the board pay cut like the NHL mandated at the beginning of the salary cap? The other option I mentioned in another thread was to change the contracts from a fixed dollar amount to a percentage of the maximum salary cap - that way it wouldn't matter if the cap number went up or down.
That has been mentioned before.....but I do not think the NHLPA would ever go for it....

Besides....with the escrow account ensuring players already pay a huge portion of their salary into the escrow account....it is not a major concern. If league wide revenues drop the players will take the biggest hit.

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06-21-2009, 10:30 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by DIEHARD the King fan View Post
I posted this in the Breakfast with the GM thread, But it seems more appropriate here.


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Thanks piston. I understand your answers but still have questions. I guess someone could, a la Jeff Solomon/Dean Lombardi figure out exactly what each team has committed for each of the next two years, and then calculate the total league wide commitments on salary and see if it is possible for the league to fit that amount of existing salary commitment within the league wide total of allowed cap expenditure. I assume that as of right now, with several teams well below the cap, (Montreal being the most obvious) there is enough cap space league wide to satisfy the existing contracts for 2010-2011, but by the time this year's crop of UFA's and RFA's are signed, and assuming a worst case scenario of a 48MM cap in 2010-2011, there might not be.

If not, then what happens? A team's star players have to be sent to the AHL (where I understand a player's cap hit no longer counts against the team)? Someone suggested that in the breakfast. What if Philly and New York have NO TAKERS in their attempts to unload salary and literally can not fill their roster without going over the cap? Then what? I have trouble believing the league will nullify their games or not provide them some relief if they cant ice a team without going over the cap.

Beyond that, it seems logical and possible that at some not too distant point salaries, existing and those to come, will necessarily exceed a cap that continues to drop and that, as a result, some mid level players will be forced out of the NHL because teams simply will not be allowed to pay them close to what they are worth, and then those players may seek employment in other leagues. I think there are going to be adjustments made in practice by the NHL when the presumed cap hell materializes.

Bringing this full circle, it is assuming alot to pin your team's hopes of acquiring key pieces of the puzzle on the presumed ability of stealing players away from other teams who have cap problems. Reading that part of the DL interview reminded me of DL's "make my day"sound bite" last year about teams offering offer sheets to our RFA's. If the league offers respite to cap plagued teams because of a precipitous drop in the cap, we will have been waiting for nothing.
If Philadelphia and NYR have no takers, then they will either be trading players that other teams do want, or they will be burying players that should be on their roster and replacing them with players that make minimum salary.

Also, it's not a good idea to run on the ragged edge of the cap. If a team has more injuries than their cap can handle during the course of the year it can be a problem. Take a look at what happened to Calgary last season. They were unable to ice a full team for several games because it would have put them over the cap.

The idea that the league is going to invent some kind of "new rule" to let teams off the hook is bogus. The teams all know the rules. Some GMs were stupid, too bad.

Teams might be worried about players bolting for other leagues, but remember the recession is world wide.

http://blog.mlive.com/snapshots/2009...d_about_d.html

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Kelly also spoke to the Globe and Mail's David Shoalts spoke to both Kelly and the infamous Mark Gandler, who would probably encourage more of his clientele to sign in the KHL if they weren't experiencing serious issues of their own (players will take a 33% pay cut, across the board, next season, with no unrestricted free agency this summer),
Bringing this full circle it would be stupid of a GM to assume that the cap isn't going to go down even further in the 2010-2011 season, or to expect that the NHL will re-write the rules to bail you out of your cap problems.

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06-21-2009, 11:01 PM
  #31
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The NHL ain't gonna contract ROFL @ 6 teams.

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06-22-2009, 12:30 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
If Philadelphia and NYR have no takers, then they will either be trading players that other teams do want, or they will be burying players that should be on their roster and replacing them with players that make minimum salary.

Also, it's not a good idea to run on the ragged edge of the cap. If a team has more injuries than their cap can handle during the course of the year it can be a problem. Take a look at what happened to Calgary last season. They were unable to ice a full team for several games because it would have put them over the cap.

The idea that the league is going to invent some kind of "new rule" to let teams off the hook is bogus. The teams all know the rules. Some GMs were stupid, too bad.

Teams might be worried about players bolting for other leagues, but remember the recession is world wide.

http://blog.mlive.com/snapshots/2009...d_about_d.html



Bringing this full circle it would be stupid of a GM to assume that the cap isn't going to go down even further in the 2010-2011 season, or to expect that the NHL will re-write the rules to bail you out of your cap problems.
You make some good points Kings17.....the NHL is not going to bail out these teams....but they have a lot more options than you may think. I have taken a personal interest in watching what teams in "Cap Hell" have done over the past 3 seasons. The creative GM's have found ways to fit all of their players under the cap....remember when Neidermayer "retired" for half a season and then returned when his cap hit would fit in Anaheim's budget?

What about when New Jersey traded a 1st round pick to San Jose in order to clear cap space for the Deveils?

The richer teams can trade picks to teams with a lot of cap room in order to take their cap headaches....they also can buyout players which will spread out a nightmare cap hit over a longer period....and of course there is the ability to hide players in the AHL or to suddenly have "long term" injuries.....these may sound like unlikely ways to create cap space...but I have seen numerous examples of these by several teams over the last 3 seasons.....these GM's are not going to be forced into trading their top line players or elite prospects in order ot relieve cap pressure.

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06-22-2009, 09:44 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Captain Ron View Post
You make some good points Kings17.....the NHL is not going to bail out these teams....but they have a lot more options than you may think. I have taken a personal interest in watching what teams in "Cap Hell" have done over the past 3 seasons. The creative GM's have found ways to fit all of their players under the cap....remember when Neidermayer "retired" for half a season and then returned when his cap hit would fit in Anaheim's budget?

What about when New Jersey traded a 1st round pick to San Jose in order to clear cap space for the Deveils?

The richer teams can trade picks to teams with a lot of cap room in order to take their cap headaches....they also can buyout players which will spread out a nightmare cap hit over a longer period....and of course there is the ability to hide players in the AHL or to suddenly have "long term" injuries.....these may sound like unlikely ways to create cap space...but I have seen numerous examples of these by several teams over the last 3 seasons.....these GM's are not going to be forced into trading their top line players or elite prospects in order ot relieve cap pressure.
I agree to a point. To use Philadelphia as an example, there is no way we could possilbly put the squeeze on them and acquire Richards or Carter, but we wouldn't be taking on Briere either, and the guy has an NMC so he can't be buried in the AHL.

Now a guy like Gagne could be available. Wouldn't the Flyers rather get something in return for him by shipping him out West, instead of sticking him in the AHL? I think so, and the cost wouldn't be prohibitive because the Flyers can't afford to take any roster players in return.

I think the NHL needs to really investigate any LTIR claims made by organizations that are in cap hell. Those half season retirements aren't good for a team, but the NHL needs to clean up some of the cap circumvention loopholes in any case when the next CBA rolls around.

I have a feeling that the next big bone of contention between the owners and the players will be guaranteed contracts. The owners will want to be able to go to the NFL style contract where a player can be cut. The players will fight that tooth and nail.


Last edited by KINGS17: 06-22-2009 at 09:50 AM.
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06-22-2009, 10:27 AM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust View Post
Eliminating markets isn't going to help the NHL's revenue stream. It may seem that simple logistically, but networks expect to be in certain markets, and that can dictate how lucrative of a TV contract the NHL lands. Contraction isn't going to happen and isn't an option.
Not to mention the players union will throw a hissy fit. You're cutting at least 40 jobs and that's never a good idea when you're dealing with a union. From a fans perspective I'd love to contract, each team would have 3 stacked lines, scoring should go up and it would certainly be a more exciting product as guys like Ivanans are permanently eliminated from the NHL. You would have a to be a highly skilled all aorund player to make an NHL roster which is not the case now.

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06-22-2009, 10:41 AM
  #35
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If the cap goes down to 48 million, do the Kings really want Kopitar eating up 17-18% of their cap?

For a player that DL has admitted numerous times has been "out of shape"?


As for contraction, it ain't gonna happen as long as Bettman is in charge. He won't allow it. He'll have the NHL funding teams until the money runs out. There will ALWAYS be a billionaire looking for the next toy...er.... write off.... my God, can you imagine the write offs they could put on the books of a failing NHL franchise? No wonder Anschutz keeps the Kings. All the $$$$$ they've made on Downtown real estate? The losses can certainly be added to the LA Kings books (and as a money man, you certainly know how books can be cooked... ESPECIALLY since AEG is NOT a publicly traded company)

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Again...where were these figures "leaked"?
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Solomon said it at the SOTF - I have it recorded and I'm about to embark on a 5 hour flight, so I'll print EXACTLY what he said.

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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
To use Philadelphia as an example, there is no way we could possilbly put the squeeze on them and acquire Richards or Carter, .
Wanna bet?


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06-22-2009, 12:02 PM
  #36
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Wanna bet?
Dean could acquire them...but Philly is not going to giv e them up without a huge return....and yes, I will bet on that.

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06-22-2009, 12:08 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
I agree to a point. To use Philadelphia as an example, there is no way we could possilbly put the squeeze on them and acquire Richards or Carter, but we wouldn't be taking on Briere either, and the guy has an NMC so he can't be buried in the AHL.

Now a guy like Gagne could be available. Wouldn't the Flyers rather get something in return for him by shipping him out West, instead of sticking him in the AHL? I think so, and the cost wouldn't be prohibitive because the Flyers can't afford to take any roster players in return.

I think the NHL needs to really investigate any LTIR claims made by organizations that are in cap hell. Those half season retirements aren't good for a team, but the NHL needs to clean up some of the cap circumvention loopholes in any case when the next CBA rolls around.

I have a feeling that the next big bone of contention between the owners and the players will be guaranteed contracts. The owners will want to be able to go to the NFL style contract where a player can be cut. The players will fight that tooth and nail.
Assuming you are correct, and we can pick-up mid-level players for bargain basement prices, next off-season, we are still going to be missing that true superstar we need to put us in contention, not just for the playoffs, but for the cup and we are going to be that much closer to cap hell ourselves when the cap drops to 48MM if it does.

I dont know what the various charts (at the GM breakfast) said about the Kings position with players signed and cap space available in 2010-2011, but it would be very interesting to see a projection, despite all this talk about cap conservation,, of what we really will have available in cap space in 2010-2011 if the cap drops to 48MM. If such a drop then limits our ability top sign a superstar, as it allegeldy will handcuff other cap hell teams from fielding a full roster, all these cap space conservation machinations will have been for nothing...and the waiting continues.

But then this is the off-season and thats what it is. . . waiting

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Hi, I'm Dean Lombardi, and I'm waiting on the Cap to drop.

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06-22-2009, 12:19 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DIEHARD the King fan View Post
Assuming you are correct, and we can pick-up mid-level players for bargain basement prices, next off-season, we are still going to be missing that true superstar we need to put us in contention, not just for the playoffs, but for the cup and we are going to be that much closer to cap hell ourselves when the cap drops to 48MM if it does.

I dont know what the various charts (at the GM breakfast) said about the Kings position with players signed and cap space available in 2010-2011, but it would be very interesting to see a projection, despite all this talk about cap conservation,, of what we really will have available in cap space in 2010-2011 if the cap drops to 48MM. If such a drop then limits our ability top sign a superstar, as it allegeldy will handcuff other cap hell teams from fielding a full roster, all these cap space conservation machinations will have been for nothing...and the waiting continues.

But then this is the off-season and thats what it is. . . waiting

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Hi, I'm Dean Lombardi, and I'm waiting on the Cap to drop.
if i remember correctly, they were around middle of the pack for the 2010-11 season and in good shape.

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06-22-2009, 12:40 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by DIEHARD the King fan View Post
Assuming you are correct, and we can pick-up mid-level players for bargain basement prices, next off-season, we are still going to be missing that true superstar we need to put us in contention, not just for the playoffs, but for the cup and we are going to be that much closer to cap hell ourselves when the cap drops to 48MM if it does.

I dont know what the various charts (at the GM breakfast) said about the Kings position with players signed and cap space available in 2010-2011, but it would be very interesting to see a projection, despite all this talk about cap conservation,, of what we really will have available in cap space in 2010-2011 if the cap drops to 48MM. If such a drop then limits our ability top sign a superstar, as it allegeldy will handcuff other cap hell teams from fielding a full roster, all these cap space conservation machinations will have been for nothing...and the waiting continues.

But then this is the off-season and thats what it is. . . waiting

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Hi, I'm Dean Lombardi, and I'm waiting on the Cap to drop.
As of right now the Kings have $31.7 million locked up in 12 players. IF the cap dropped to $48 million it would give the Kings about $16 million to sign 11 players......included in those 11 players would be Johnson, Quincey, Quick, Purcell and Frolov. If you assume it would take about $12 million to keep those players it would give the Kings about $4 million to fill out the remaining 6 spots on the roster.

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06-22-2009, 12:45 PM
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As of right now the Kings have $31.7 million locked up in 12 players. IF the cap dropped to $48 million it would give the Kings about $16 million to sign 11 players......included in those 11 players would be Johnson, Quincey, Quick, Purcell and Frolov. If you assume it would take about $12 million to keep those players it would give the Kings about $4 million to fill out the remaining 6 spots on the roster.
So for all the talk of cap management via cap conservation, the chance of us landing a superstar via UFA is slim and none. So then the only shot at getting a Kovlachuk, Nash or even a Gaborik is via trade. And assuming trade, lots of cap space is made available if we jettison JWTFJ and Frolov.

And the good news then is . . . What???

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06-22-2009, 01:01 PM
  #41
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So for all the talk of cap management via cap conservation, the chance of us landing a superstar via UFA is slim and none. So then the only shot at getting a Kovlachuk, Nash or even a Gaborik is via trade. And assuming trade, lots of cap space is made available if we jettison JWTFJ and Frolov.

And the good news then is . . . What???
Let's just say that Dean Lombardi could sell many people on this board a broken down used car and convince them it is the best investment they will ever make.

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06-22-2009, 01:18 PM
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Let's just say that Dean Lombardi could sell many people on this board a broken down used car and convince them it is the best investment they will ever make.
The creative GM's have found ways to fit all of their players under the cap

Dean's test will come when he has finally reached the point of having to get creative... this summer is his first REAL step, and the one agreed upon thing among those who Kool-Aid and those who don't has always been this underlying idea that we would all likely see something in the summer of 2009 because all signs were seemingly pointing that way since he got here.

i think that "something" or the transitional phase began when he made the decision to move O'Sullivan for Williams... now don't get me wrong, my Kool-Aid is most definitely diluted and i'm not naive enough to bite on the whole lack of acrimony idea. but i won't however discount the hockey side of that matter either.

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06-22-2009, 01:23 PM
  #43
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The creative GM's have found ways to fit all of their players under the cap

Dean's test will come when he has finally reached the point of having to get creative... this summer is his first REAL step, and the one agreed upon thing among those who Kool-Aid and those who don't has always been this underlying idea that we would all likely see something in the summer of 2009 because all signs were seemingly pointing that way since he got here.
I agree....but if the summer ends and Dean has done nothing other than re-sign Johnson and acquire a couple of 3rd line players is it a successful off season?

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06-22-2009, 01:36 PM
  #44
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I agree....but if the summer ends and Dean has done nothing other than re-sign Johnson and acquire a couple of 3rd line players is it a successful off season?
No! They are very aware we need scoring and if they do nothing to address it, you can't measure that as a success. Something needs to be done whether there is a trade or a UFA signing.

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06-22-2009, 01:38 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by wabwat View Post
The creative GM's have found ways to fit all of their players under the cap

Dean's test will come when he has finally reached the point of having to get creative... this summer is his first REAL step, and the one agreed upon thing among those who Kool-Aid and those who don't has always been this underlying idea that we would all likely see something in the summer of 2009 because all signs were seemingly pointing that way since he got here.
This is why I believe the message from the GM breakfast was mixed at best. This is off-season 4 and season 4 is coming up. The five year plan idea has obviously gone out the window, and with the constant focus seemingly always on the future rather than NOW AND the FUTURE, its beginning to look alot like we wont get what we are hoping for, if at all, until several more long seasons pass, and then only if the future occurs as DL's non-existent crystal ball says it will. By then we will have to restructure again and the old cycle, rinse repeat syndrome occurs.

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06-22-2009, 01:40 PM
  #46
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No! They are very aware we need scoring and if they do nothing to address it, you can't measure that as a success. Something needs to be done whether there is a trade or a UFA signing.
Well I guess there is at least an agreement there. My biggest concern for this off season is that Dean will go with the status quo.....and try to convince the fans it is the teams best interest.

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06-22-2009, 01:53 PM
  #47
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This is the same team that said for years once there is a salary cap in place THEN they will be major players? Now the tune is once the cap is lowered THEN the Kings will be major players? Wrong. The same teams that are suppposedly in cap hell will still be winning and the Kings will be churning out prospects so that they will eventually raise up the Cup for another team. It seems to me that cap hell is the place to be right now. I doubt any Pittsburgh fans at the Cup parade were crying or very worried at the prospect at something that may never happen. If you're a King fan and you're worried about the cap then you should be calling for the head of Dean Lombardi for the ridiculous signings of Handzus and Preissing among others.

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06-22-2009, 02:05 PM
  #48
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I know I'm just a stupid redneck who lives in Kentucky, but what happens if a team spends over the cap and can't get it down? Lose game? Fined? Thanks.

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06-22-2009, 02:16 PM
  #49
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I feel sorry for Frolov. His last deal was done right after the $39M cap goes into place and he gets a contract with a $2.9M cap hit.

Now he is likely to see the cap greatly reduced heading into this negotiation. I wonder if he waits to see how the cap shakes out, or if he will sign the $4M - $4.5M cap hit contract that the Kings will be offering.

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06-22-2009, 02:25 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Ron View Post
I agree....but if the summer ends and Dean has done nothing other than re-sign Johnson and acquire a couple of 3rd line players is it a successful off season?
i think, honestly, yes and no... and i think either direction is heavily weighted by how each of us as individuals feels about the players already here.

do we think Johnson is worth it? what about moves that when looking at that financial picture down the road proves retaining a player like Frolov would be in the team's best interest despite the fact that that "better" player is available at his (Fro's) eventual expense, either by having to include Alex in that acquisition or being forced to move him later.

if it turns out to be the latter, is there enough in the organization to fill his slot? a very tough question to answer when you consider that a HUGE red flag was hoisted when the three headed bucket of fail seemed to have done everything in their power to lose the jobs they were virtually given last summer... and that not only serves as a strike against Lombardi, but Dave Taylor as well.

there is also something to be said about seeing a little continuity in the lineup as well... and while this team kept up admirably at times and DID have a legit shot at the post-season despite learning a new system with a stripped down offensive attack, Johnson's half-season absence, a readjustment by Kopitar, Brown's late season zeroics AND the lowest payroll, there's definitely still a ways to go. but i think that stability plays a big role in that, and some smaller, less sexy tweaks may prove out to be a much better idea.

this does NOT mean however that i cannot see the other argument, for someone like Lecavalier, say... tho' i can't for the life of me understand the Dany Heatley idea.

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