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Operating in the Era of a Falling Salary Cap

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Old
06-22-2009, 02:27 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by marajade View Post
I know I'm just a stupid redneck who lives in Kentucky, but what happens if a team spends over the cap and can't get it down? Lose game? Fined? Thanks.
Answer....it won't happen. Teams are allowed to be 10% over the cap during the off season. They find out what the cap will be by June 30th....that gives them plenty of time to trade or buy out players in order to fit under the cap....I am 99.99% sure that no team will ever start the season over the cap.

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06-22-2009, 02:31 PM
  #52
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I feel sorry for Frolov. His last deal was done right after the $39M cap goes into place and he gets a contract with a $2.9M cap hit.

Now he is likely to see the cap greatly reduced heading into this negotiation. I wonder if he waits to see how the cap shakes out, or if he will sign the $4M - $4.5M cap hit contract that the Kings will be offering.
Frolov probably deserves a raise more than Kopitar (in my opinion) but you are right about his contracts expiring at the worst possible time. I am very interested to see how much value Frolov places on himself.

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06-22-2009, 02:32 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by CBGB View Post
Solomon said it at the SOTF - I have it recorded and I'm about to embark on a 5 hour flight, so I'll print EXACTLY what he said.
Solomon's speculation is not a "leak". Piston said the cap number for this season AND NEXT SEASON were leaked as though the official cap ceilings had already been determined and had somehow been leaked. He then built his whole premise around this leaked info. Maybe I'm quibbling here but he is basing his whole argument on Solomon's SPECULATION at a fan event, nothing was ever leaked.

You should know the difference here CBGB, this is right up your alley. When you said Lindros was going to be King, was that a leak or were you speculating? See what I mean?

You know, when I found out you were officially blogging for hockeybuzz I scoffed and rolled my eyes but you know what? You're absolutely perfect for that site.
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06-22-2009, 02:41 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Captain Ron View Post
Well I guess there is at least an agreement there. My biggest concern for this off season is that Dean will go with the status quo.....and try to convince the fans it is the teams best interest.

and what if that does prove to be the case, that it does end up being in the team's best interest? what then?

again, i think these arguments hang completely on the level of confidence in the players already here... particularly those two leaders up front.

if there's no confidence in those players, well honey, you've been building your team incorrectly, and there ain't no kind of mercenary player that's going to come in and rescue them... certainly not without gutting the organization of several elements that ARE working... and then were would that put you?

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06-22-2009, 03:03 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Kevin19 View Post
Solomon's speculation is not a "leak". Piston said the cap number for this season AND NEXT SEASON were leaked as though the official cap ceilings had already been determined and had somehow been leaked.
Obviously no determinations have been made for 2010-2011 so it's impossible to "leak" non-existent information. I think everyone here gets that. If you want to beat piston up for a poor choice of words, do it in PM.

On a related note, here's some insight into possible cap #'s for the next 2 seasons:

http://www.nj.com/devils/index.ssf/2...preparing.html

"The cap could drop by as much as $2.5 million for the 2009-10 season from its current $56.7 million figure, according to NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly. Although Daly couldn't say, it is not inconceivable that the figure could fall to $50 million for the 2010-11 season.

"At this point, we don't really have a good estimate of where the cap will be," Daly wrote in an e-mail to The Star-Ledger. "If the NHLPA wants a 5 percent inflator, and we agree, the cap should be relatively 'flat.' If there is no inflator applied, the cap will be down $2-$2.5 million.""

"Some pessimists have suggested it could drop as low as $48 million for 2010-11.

In simple terms, the economic downturn is catching up to the NHL. And it very well could get worse before the 2010-11 season.

"The problem with the salary cap is it backdates reality by as much as 12 months," Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke explained. "It doesn't reflect current economic conditions."


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06-22-2009, 03:04 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin19 View Post
Solomon's speculation is not a "leak". Piston said the cap number for this season AND NEXT SEASON were leaked as though the official cap ceilings had already been determined and had somehow been leaked. He then built his whole premise around this leaked info. Maybe I'm quibbling here but he is basing his whole argument on Solomon's SPECULATION at a fan event, nothing was ever leaked.

You should know the difference here CBGB, this is right up your alley. When you said Lindros was going to be King, was that a leak or were you speculating? See what I mean?

You know, when I found out you were officially blogging for hockeybuzz I scoffed and rolled my eyes but you know what? You're absolutely perfect for that site.
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Solomon is not speculating. If you think he is not on the phone regularly to the league office doing his job, you are kidding yourself. The numbers he is presenting are very well informed projections from the league office which is then 'leaked' or whatever word you would like to use to the teams so that they can begin to build their budgets. The cap ceilings are not officially set, but it would be a surprise if the final number this year is off by more than a couple of $100 k and for next year by more than $2 mm.

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06-22-2009, 03:15 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Tikkanen View Post
I think the NHL would expand before they contract. That expansion revenue coming from Hamilton and/or Vegas would help out a lot of teams. There's a reason the NHL awards were held in Vegas this year.
The talent in the NHL per team is already so slim that while it may help the NHL owners get paid it may make the NHL less interesting to it's existing fan base.

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06-22-2009, 03:17 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by piston View Post
Solomon is not speculating. If you think he is not on the phone regularly to the league office doing his job, you are kidding yourself. The numbers he is presenting are very well informed projections from the league office which is then 'leaked' or whatever word you would like to use to the teams so that they can begin to build their budgets. The cap ceilings are not officially set, but it would be a surprise if the final number this year is off by more than a couple of $100 k and for next year by more than $2 mm.
The problem is that Solomon has no idea....(neither does anyone in the NHL offices) as to whether or not the NHLPA will implement the 5% inflator....and none of them know what rate of season ticket renewal there will be 14+ months from now.

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06-22-2009, 03:19 PM
  #59
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and what if that does prove to be the case, that it does end up being in the team's best interest? what then?

again, i think these arguments hang completely on the level of confidence in the players already here... particularly those two leaders up front.

if there's no confidence in those players, well honey, you've been building your team incorrectly, and there ain't no kind of mercenary player that's going to come in and rescue them... certainly not without gutting the organization of several elements that ARE working... and then were would that put you?
What can you say? This is it and Dean probably won't be throwing them an expensive life preserver that he picked up at the marina's boating suppy store.

Probably more like water wings he picked up at Wal Mart.

I would be totally fine with a mid-range LW (Sturm) that Lombardi picks up in a trade on the cheap, and a not too expensive top 4 defenseman (Beauchemin) from the UFA market. The team would help themselves with those acquisitions and continue to move up in the standings.

Yes, some of the improvement will be based on the kids getting better, which as a group they will do.

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06-22-2009, 03:22 PM
  #60
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The talent in the NHL per team is already so slim that while it may help the NHL owners get paid it may make the NHL less interesting to it's existing fan base.
I do not agree with that. The NHL employs about 690 players......there are literally thousands of players who play in professional leagues. The NHL has the cream of the crop......Not to mention the NHL has more Euro/Asian players in it than any other major sport.

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06-22-2009, 03:23 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by wabwat View Post
and what if that does prove to be the case, that it does end up being in the team's best interest? what then?

again, i think these arguments hang completely on the level of confidence in the players already here... particularly those two leaders up front.

if there's no confidence in those players, well honey, you've been building your team incorrectly, and there ain't no kind of mercenary player that's going to come in and rescue them... certainly not without gutting the organization of several elements that ARE working... and then were would that put you?
The future is uncertain, of course. But wouldn't it be more likely that the development curve of our two young leaders would be shorter if they were surrounded by more talent rather than less? Might they not be so readily discouraged if they believe management willhelp them help the team get them there as opposed to foisting ALL the responsibility on their admittedly young and inexperienced shoulders?

At the end of last season both our team leaders said rather quickly and in unison that what the team needed as a first priority was scoring help at left wing. Deflected as that intially was by DL (he focused instead on the need of those two top players to be better) even the Kings managment brain trust has had to admit that, in fact, what we need is a scoring left winger. Having finally come around to the player's point of view, to not do anything to satisfy that need is basically failing to address a obvious deficiency in our team. So standing pat can not be seen to be in the "best interest"of the team or in the develpoment of the players, particularly those two team leaders.

Put another way, can it not be viewed as a snub to both Kopitar and Brown for the team to acknowledge a weakness but to then fail to address it? What would that suggest to them as leaders of this team -- that thier opinions are not valued or that their contributions are simply not enough but nonetheless the team won't help them out?

I don't know the future either, but I believe that if you want something, anything, in life or sports, you have to go out and get it, and not wait for it to come to you. Hoping that the cap workings in the future provide you some perceived advantage, because you arent creative enough to manipulate it now is like waiting for the lottery to call out your numbers.

If the cap drops precipitously next year as predicted, it appears we wont have the cap room to sign a big name player then either. So please remind me what we are waiting (and expected to pay) for in the meantime.

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06-22-2009, 03:26 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Captain Ron View Post
The problem is that Solomon has no idea....(neither does anyone in the NHL offices) as to whether or not the NHLPA will implement the 5% inflator....and none of them know what rate of season ticket renewal there will be 14+ months from now.
I don't think you're right on this one. He knows what the Kings' revenues are and he knows what the NHL's revenues are. He can guestimate the revenue of other clubs based on the number of season tickets they sell and the prices of those tickets, as well as doing some math on the Canadian to US dollar conversion.

It might be a guess, but it's pretty damn educated.

Also, the 2010-2011 cap won't be based on season tickets sold in 14 months from now.

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06-22-2009, 03:29 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
What can you say? This is it and Dean probably won't be throwing them an expensive life preserver that he picked up at the marina's boating suppy store.

Probably more like water wings he picked up at Wal Mart.

I would be totally fine with a mid-range LW (Sturm) that Lombardi picks up in a trade on the cheap, and a not too expensive top 4 defenseman (Beauchemin) from the UFA market. The team would help themselves with those acquisitions and continue to move up in the standings.

Yes, some of the improvement will be based on the kids getting better, which as a group they will do.
If the Kings entered the season with Sturm, Beauchemin and Schenn or MSP I don't see how you could be unhappy. I want Gaborik in LA but I realize the Kings have a 1 in 30 shot of getting him. But, by bringing in Sturm and Beauch you solidify the top 6, the D is nastier and the most important part is you should be rid of guys like Kyle Calder and Tom Preissing which is addition by subtraction. If you're looking for guys who fit into Murray's system you can't go wrong with Sturm and Beauch. They're not the sexy choice like Gaborik/Havlat/Hossa but the team is improved and that's all I can ask for. However, I'd be more inclined to buy tickets with Gaborik in the #10 jersey.

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06-22-2009, 03:30 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
I don't think you're right on this one. He knows what the Kings' revenues are and he knows what the NHL's revenues are. He can guestimate the revenue of other clubs based on the number of season tickets they sell and the prices of those tickets, as well as doing some math on the Canadian to US dollar conversion.

It might be a guess, but it's pretty damn educated.

Also, the 2010-2011 cap won't be based on season tickets sold in 14 months from now.
I think all the GM's have a very good idea of what the cap will be for this coming year but the following year is still specualtive.

My problem is that if you assume the worst as Solomon apparently did, it affects our ability to sign a superstar, or significant scoring left winger, so that while other teams may have problems greater than ours, it wont necessarily benefit us as we have been led to believe.

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06-22-2009, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
I don't think you're right on this one. He knows what the Kings' revenues are and he knows what the NHL's revenues are. He can guestimate the revenue of other clubs based on the number of season tickets they sell and the prices of those tickets, as well as doing some math on the Canadian to US dollar conversion.
Soloman knows if the NHLPA will implement the 5% inflator....that is funny because even the NHLPA does not know that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
Also, the 2010-2011 cap won't be based on season tickets sold in 14 months from now.
The cap will not be set by the tickets sold 14 months from now....but the projections will directly influence whether or not the NHLPA implements the 5% inflator. Which has a huge influence on the final cap number.

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06-22-2009, 03:37 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Captain Ron View Post
Soloman knows if the NHLPA will implement the 5% inflator....that is funny because even the NHLPA does not know that.



The cap will not be set by the tickets sold 14 months from now....but the projections will directly influence whether or not the NHLPA implements the 5% inflator. Which has a huge influence on the final cap number.
I know you have read it in detail. If you can provide some examples of the impact of the 5% inflator, I would appeciate it.

Say the cap falls to $54M this season, and then again to $50M in 2010-2011. What does the 5% inflator do, and how often can it be implemented by the NHLPA?

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06-22-2009, 03:41 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Tikkanen View Post
If the Kings entered the season with Sturm, Beauchemin and Schenn or MSP I don't see how you could be unhappy. I want Gaborik in LA but I realize the Kings have a 1 in 30 shot of getting him. But, by bringing in Sturm and Beauch you solidify the top 6, the D is nastier and the most important part is you should be rid of guys like Kyle Calder and Tom Preissing which is addition by subtraction. If you're looking for guys who fit into Murray's system you can't go wrong with Sturm and Beauch. They're not the sexy choice like Gaborik/Havlat/Hossa but the team is improved and that's all I can ask for. However, I'd be more inclined to buy tickets with Gaborik in the #10 jersey.
I agree! And if Frolov was re-signed, I'd be very happy!

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06-22-2009, 03:52 PM
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I'd be more inclined to buy tickets with Gaborik in the #10 jersey.
Dempsey didn't do it for you?

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06-22-2009, 03:53 PM
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I know you have read it in detail. If you can provide some examples of the impact of the 5% inflator, I would appeciate it.

Say the cap falls to $54M this season, and then again to $50M in 2010-2011. What does the 5% inflator do, and how often can it be implemented by the NHLPA?
When the NHL reports the revenue for the year the NHLPA has an option to implement the 5% inflator.....the league then would add 5% of the revenue to the total before calculating the cap. As an example this past season's cap would have been only $54 million as opposed to $56.7 million if the NHLPA decided to not implement the 5% inflator.

Here is an article that discusses it a bit.

http://blog.mlive.com/snapshots/2009...bjects_to.html

The advantage of the 5% inflator is it keeps the cap number high...in order to have more money for free agents....but this would also increase the amount of money that players pay into the escrow account....so basically implementing the 5% inflator benefits players looking for a new contract at the expense of players on existing contracts....not implementing the 5% inflator would have the reverse effect.

Oh and in case it was not mentioned the NHLPA decude whether or not to implement the inflator every year.


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06-22-2009, 04:14 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Captain Ron View Post
When the NHL reports the revenue for the year the NHLPA has an option to implement the 5% inflator.....the league then would add 5% of the revenue to the total before calculating the cap. As an example this past season's cap would have been only $54 million as opposed to $56.7 million if the NHLPA decided to not implement the 5% inflator.

Here is an article that discusses it a bit.

http://blog.mlive.com/snapshots/2009...bjects_to.html

The advantage of the 5% inflator is it keeps the cap number high...in order to have more money for free agents....but this would also increase the amount of money that players pay into the escrow account....so basically implementing the 5% inflator benefits players looking for a new contract at the expense of players on existing contracts....not implementing the 5% inflator would have the reverse effect.

Oh and in case it was not mentioned the NHLPA decude whether or not to implement the inflator every year.
Thanks, I definitely see why that screws over the players on contract currently, and helps those that are seeking a deal as a UFA.

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06-22-2009, 04:29 PM
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Thanks, I definitely see why that screws over the players on contract currently, and helps those that are seeking a deal as a UFA.
Well, I suppose that as the NHLPA has used the inflator every year its been available, it evens out for most players, except those signed to long term contracts and those who extend without testing free agency.

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06-22-2009, 04:35 PM
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Thanks, I definitely see why that screws over the players on contract currently, and helps those that are seeking a deal as a UFA.
Another thing about the situation is if the NHLPA foresees a situation where players either lose their jobs or are buried in the AHL as the result of the cap dropping dramatically I think they might implement the inflator to spead the loss of income over the entire league as opposed to a few dozen.

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06-22-2009, 04:43 PM
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If Holland, Lamoriello, Shero, etc. were the GM of this team in its current state would they be holding back based on a hypothetical set of conditions that might possibly come into effect in 2010-2011?

No I don't think they would. They would be aggressive and try to build the best team...period. I'm tired of waiting and seeing. Even if this imaginary windfall of available great players happens...who's to say if the right players will be available? It's stupid (imo) to sit idle and wait for other teams mistakes to benefit the Kings.
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06-22-2009, 05:16 PM
  #74
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If Holland, Lamoriello, Shero, etc. were the GM of this team in its current state would they be holding back based on a hypothetical set of conditions that might possibly come into effect in 2010-2011?

No I don't think they would. They would be aggressive and try to build the best team...period. I'm tired of waiting and seeing. Even if this imaginary windfall of available great players happens...who's to say if the right players will be available? It's stupid (imo) to sit idle and wait for other teams mistakes to benefit the Kings.
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They would be stupid not to, because right now Pittsburgh has $39.6M committed to 11 players heading into 2010-2011, and Detroit has $38.3M committed to 10 players heading into 2010-2011.

If the cap drops down to say $52M these guys had better have their thinking caps on right now. Should Detroit even think about re-signing Hossa? Should we stop handing out NMCs in these contracts in case we have to bury some guys in the AHL?

I know as a casual fan you probably don't care, but you might want to think about the constraints these guys have to work under and how it might benefit the Kings down the road. The Kings have $34.6M committed to 13 players heading into 2010-2011.


Last edited by KINGS17: 06-22-2009 at 05:25 PM.
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06-22-2009, 05:25 PM
  #75
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They would be stupid not to, because right now Pittsburgh has $39.6M committed to 11 players heading into 2010-2011, and Detroit has $38.3M committed to 10 players heading into 2010-2011.

If the cap drops down to say $52M these guys had better have their thinking caps on right now. Should Detroit even think about re-signing Hossa?

I know as a casual fan you probably don't care, but you might want to think about the constraints these guys have to work under and how it might benefit the Kings down the road. The Kings have $34.6M committed to 13 players heading into 2010-2011.
While I will concede it is entirely possible that GM's like Holland, Lamoriello, Shero, Sather, Chiarelli and Holmgren will be utterly embarrassed if the cap drops....I still believe most of these guys are some of the smartest GM's in not only the NHL, but in all of sports. I am sure they have already considered the possibility of the cap going down and probably have some contingency plans in place if it does happen. They are not going to be rapped by the likes of Dean Lombardi or any other GM by giving up their best assets in order to remain cap compliant.

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