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Old
06-25-2009, 11:23 AM
  #301
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
They do, you are right and I understand, its just my own pet peev kind of thing. Looking in the past, a head scratcher to me was the taking of Schultz over Green. Was he the BPA? I really think best player usually means little 4 years later. Did we want an offensive guy or defensive guy more that year? Did we just take the BPA blindly. Was that the smart move? Was Sarge graded higher, and on what merits? so many question marks; I just personally prefer to take the guy you want. So many are busts anyways, at least succeed or fail on your own decisions. Thats just my preference and I know its far from main stream.
It's very clear why we took Schultz over Green: we wanted both of them, and knew Dallas wasn't going to take Green but would have taken Schultz. It's a case of making sure you get the guys you target. I don't know which of the two was BPA (assuming either were) though.

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06-25-2009, 11:36 AM
  #302
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Ah so we knew they wanted Schultz. Thanks BRS03, i didnt follow the drafts much back then. Maybe Dallas feels foolish now following the BPA thing? I do wonder who the BPA was, and cant help but assume it was Sarge if Dallas and us wanted him so badly. Maybe 10 years from now we will know conclusively who was the better player. Do these collective scouts that determine BPA even get graded? I would love to know their success rate compared to George and his staff. I would like to think a competent staff could better the BPA crew just slightly, largely from knowing our own teams needs.

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06-25-2009, 11:52 AM
  #303
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With O'Reilly it comes down to whether or not one believes his dedication will drive him to overcome the current weaknesses in his game and whether his current foundation of skills will project well at the NHL level (perhaps even more specifically within the context of the system one employs). Those are really the questions to ask about any player under consideration to be drafted. Various stylistic projections from scouting services hardly should be taken as gospel. Take Mike Richards for instance. What were the projections when he was drafted? Not the level of player he is today that's for damn sure. How about Mike Green? Not to say O'Reilly quite has Richards' drive but I tend to take the various player comparisons with a grain of salt (and even they aren't unanimous in thinking he's at best elite third-line material). Those projections are merely broad brush portraits of stylistic similarities and little more. Every player is unique and projections are just that.

Without a player having that incredible attention to detail and drive to constantly get better there's going to be unfulfilled potential and some risk involved when it comes to development. Some players aren't bright, adaptable or naturally skilled enough to translate their skills or be able to overhaul their game to fit an NHL role. Others have that competitive drive to actively add components to their game...and more times than not I'll take the player with that level of attention to detail, self-awareness and drive. That's also why I--perhaps unfairly based on timing--tend to put more stock into players that have made significant strides over the course of this season, especially if their game seems to translate to the next level. There are injuries or other mitigating circumstances but generally you want to see players in their draft-eligible seasons polishing up their games, especially decision-making and consistency. The vast majority are still years away from making the NHL but a mature head for the game and a consistent level of play gives a solid foundation for a player to build off of. Some players develop later or are in bad developmental situations so there are limitations to prioritizing that as well.

Best Player Available. A highly subjective concept. There is no 'consensus.' There's no total agreement as to who should go first this year, let alone 24th. Nor is there obviously any objective mathematical formula for tabulating who the BPA is or else the league could simply tabulate it, take away the selecting process from GMs entirely and award players to teams from slot to slot to slot (with GMs just trading draft position). But that wouldn't be any fun. It's the draft decision-making and post-draft development process that makes following the draft and player development so fascinating, as inexact and varied in philosophies as it may be.

Lander would be a pretty big reach. ISS questions his ability to translate his game fully and was one of their boom/bust players. Another high character guy, though, who also has some skating concerns but there should be higher upside / lesser risk players available at 24 and it's not out of the question that he slips to the Caps at 55. There are quite a few projected second rounders I'd prefer over him but he seems like a pretty smart, steady player.

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06-25-2009, 11:58 AM
  #304
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Langway View Post
Lander would be a pretty big reach. ISS questions his ability to translate his game fully and was one of their boom/bust players. Another high character guy, though, who also has some skating concerns but there should be higher upside / lesser risk players available at 24 and it's not out of the question that he slips to the Caps at 55. There are quite a few projected second rounders I'd prefer over him but he seems like a pretty smart, steady player.
That's what I figured. If he was available at #55 I would love the Caps to take him. He's smart and is a leader. He's also played the past 2 years playing against men in Sweden.

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06-25-2009, 12:29 PM
  #305
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Ah so we knew they wanted Schultz. Thanks BRS03, i didnt follow the drafts much back then. Maybe Dallas feels foolish now following the BPA thing? I do wonder who the BPA was, and cant help but assume it was Sarge if Dallas and us wanted him so badly. Maybe 10 years from now we will know conclusively who was the better player. Do these collective scouts that determine BPA even get graded? I would love to know their success rate compared to George and his staff. I would like to think a competent staff could better the BPA crew just slightly, largely from knowing our own teams needs.
Well, the thing with Green is he fell from being on a terrible team. He may have been BPA but nobody wanted to risk it thinking he couldn't become successful. I don't know, I didn't follow it closely either, I just remember that Dallas wanted Schultz or Fistric, not Green, and we wanted Schultz and Green so we had to take Schultz first.

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06-25-2009, 12:51 PM
  #306
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Originally Posted by brs03 View Post
Well, the thing with Green is he fell from being on a terrible team. He may have been BPA but nobody wanted to risk it thinking he couldn't become successful. I don't know, I didn't follow it closely either, I just remember that Dallas wanted Schultz or Fistric, not Green, and we wanted Schultz and Green so we had to take Schultz first.
There was also a lot of talk about Green being too small which is just crazy.

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06-25-2009, 01:49 PM
  #307
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Ah so we knew they wanted Schultz. Thanks BRS03, i didnt follow the drafts much back then. Maybe Dallas feels foolish now following the BPA thing? I do wonder who the BPA was, and cant help but assume it was Sarge if Dallas and us wanted him so badly. Maybe 10 years from now we will know conclusively who was the better player. Do these collective scouts that determine BPA even get graded? I would love to know their success rate compared to George and his staff. I would like to think a competent staff could better the BPA crew just slightly, largely from knowing our own teams needs.
BPA is just another way of saying that a franchise will stick to its draft board rankings and not divert from their board based on positions of need.

In our case we NEED a #2 center probably more than any other position. So if we over emphasize centers on our draft board, or worse, select a center we have rated say 24th, when there is a goalie we have rated 15th overall still available, then we are drafting for need vs BPA. If we take that goalie who we have rated 15th on our board (based on whatever collective criteria our scouts and GMGM use) over a center who is ranked 24th, then we are going clearly BPA. IMHO this is the right strategy. Now the question of grading our scouting becomes easier as well. How many good/great players do we get, vs how many good/great players do we pass on. It shouldn't be related to what specific holes in the NHL club we project to fill with 18 year olds. IMHO you get much better value drafting like this, even if you find yourself with a stockpile of prospects at one position and a dearth at another position. That's when trades are used to balance out your roster. When you draft for need, you find yourself passing on a HOF LW because we already have one, and selecting a journeyman center because we needed one, more often than the reverse of that. That's obviously an extreme example but it applies on smaller scales as well.

Its nice when the top ranked player on your board also fits a need, it makes draftniks happy on draft day. But reaching to fill needs with 18 year olds is a terrible practice, IMHO. You rarely fill your actual needs like that.

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06-25-2009, 02:28 PM
  #308
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So, here's my Draft day-eve first round mock, just for the hell of it:

(Assuming no trades)

1. New York Islanders -- Matt Duchene, C, Brampton, OHL
2. Tampa Bay Lightning -- Victor Hedman, D, Modo, Sweden
3. Colorado Avalanche -- John Tavares, C, London, OHL
4. Atlanta Thrashers -- Brayden Schenn, C, Brandon, WHL
5. Los Angeles Kings -- Evander Kane, C, Vancouver, WHL
6. Phoenix Coyotes -- Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, LW, TImra, Sweden
7. Toronto Maple Leafs -- Zack Kassian, RW, Peterborough, OHL
8. Dallas Stars -- Dmitri Kulikov, D, Drummondville, QMJHL
9. Ottawa Senators -- Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Leksand, Sweden
10. Edmonton Oilers -- Jared Cowan, D, Spokane, WHL
11. Nashville Predators -- Nazem Kadri, C, London, OHL
12. Minnesota Wild -- Scott Glennie, C, Brandon, WHL
13. Buffalo Sabres -- Ryan Ellis, D, Windsor, OHL
14. Florida Panthers -- Jordan Scroeder, C, Minnesota, WCHA
15. Anaheim Ducks -- Jacob Josefson, C, Djurgarden, Sweden
16. Columbus Blue Jackets -- John Moore, D, Chicago, USHL
17. St. Louis Blues -- Chris Kreider, C, Andover, USHS
18. Montreal Canadiens -- Louis Leblanc, C, Omaha, USHL
19. New York Rangers -- Peter Holland, C, Guelph, OHL
20. Calgary Flames - Ryan O'Reilly, C, Erie, OHL
21. Philadelphia Flyers -- Simon Despres, D, Saint John, QMJHL
22. Vancouver Canucks -- Carter Ashton, LW, Lethbridge, WHL
23. New Jersey Deveils -- Kyle Palmieri, RW, USNTDP
24. Washington Capitals -- Landon Ferraro, C, Red Deer, WHL
25. Boston Bruins -- David Rundblad, D, Skelleftea, Sweden
26. New York Islanders -- Nick Leddy, D, Eden Prairie, USHS
27. Carolina Hurricanes -- Calvin de Haan, D, Oshawa, OHL
28. Chicago Blackhawks -- Peter Holland, C, Guelph, OHL
29. Detroit Red Wings -- Tim Erixon, Skelleftea, Sweden
30. Pittsburgh Penguins -- Jordan Caron, RW, RImouski, QMJHL

This isn't what I'm rooting for, or anything like that. I just projected it out based on what seems logical to me, given the players available, draft tendencies, etc.

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06-25-2009, 03:11 PM
  #309
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See I knew there was a problem! I was reading the wrong Peter Holland bio!

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06-25-2009, 07:47 PM
  #310
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Scott Cullen (TSN) with a mock having the Caps taking smallish puck-moving defenseman Calvin de Haan. I'd prefer Erixon if they went for defense at that point. Bigger, just as good at moving the puck and has a cannon of a shot.

The guys from The Pipeline Show have their respective top 30 rankings out.

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06-25-2009, 09:24 PM
  #311
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Originally Posted by init2winit View Post
It seems like Phoenix and NY Islanders should draft the respective good d-men in their range because they have so many good young forward prospects already.

Would it be too much of a risk for the Islanders to make a trade with Colorado if NYI want Duchene and then Colorado gets their choice between Tavares and Hedman?
It would make sense for the Isles, but it looks like they are taking Duchene at #1. There isn't much incentive for Colorado to make the trade, however, unless they like Hedman that much better than Duchene or Tavares.

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06-25-2009, 09:28 PM
  #312
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
It would make sense for the Isles, but it looks like they are taking Duchene at #1. There isn't much incentive for Colorado to make the trade, however, unless they like Hedman that much better than Duchene or Tavares.
What makes you say that?

Every hockey expert has a different opinion on who the Islanders are going to draft. Nobody knows who they are going to take.

With that said, I personally think they are taking Duchene, but I'm just going off of a gut feeling.

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06-25-2009, 09:55 PM
  #313
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I think the Isles take Tavares.

I think they should take Hedman.

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06-25-2009, 09:55 PM
  #314
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Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
I know, Blindly Picking Again. We had this same chat a year ago. It just pretty much eliminates the need for team scouts. "Hey George I really like that guy O'Reilly's heart. Nope sorry, we are going BPA. You missed by one BPA, better luck next year". The scouts must feel like idiots sometimes.
I don't get your logic at all. BPA factors in everything, not just talent. It makes your scouts all the more important.

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06-25-2009, 09:57 PM
  #315
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Originally Posted by Backstrom #19 View Post
How much of a reach would it be if the Caps took Anton Lander at #24?



I guess if Mcphee wanted him, he could trade down and get him. I don't think Lander will be around for the Caps 2nd round pick.

Just a thought...Lander is a guy I like a lot.
Two-way game, with skating issues....me no likey...at least not early.

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06-25-2009, 09:58 PM
  #316
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Originally Posted by CapitalsCup2010 View Post
I don't get your logic at all. BPA factors in everything, not just talent. It makes your scouts all the more important.
I often dont make sense. lets drop it and hope we swing something good tomorrow. Peace bro.

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06-25-2009, 10:04 PM
  #317
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Originally Posted by Langway View Post
Scott Cullen (TSN) with a mock having the Caps taking smallish puck-moving defenseman Calvin de Haan. I'd prefer Erixon if they went for defense at that point. Bigger, just as good at moving the puck and has a cannon of a shot.

The guys from The Pipeline Show have their respective top 30 rankings out.
Jan Erixon's son?


I still like de Haan.

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06-25-2009, 11:15 PM
  #318
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Originally Posted by Backstrom #19 View Post
What makes you say that?

Every hockey expert has a different opinion on who the Islanders are going to draft. Nobody knows who they are going to take.

With that said, I personally think they are taking Duchene, but I'm just going off of a gut feeling.
It's a combination of the Isles beat writer saying it, McKenzie saying it, Burke indicating it, and the Isles defense of the pick before its made.

As a GM, if you're taking Tavares, you probably don't say this:

Quote:
"Honestly, and this isn't an indication of who we're taking or not taking, but we can't be concerned with public perception of what people think we should do," Snow said. "We owe it to our fans and ourselves to draft the player who we think gives us the best chance to win the Stanley Cup one day. That's the only consideration we have. That's all that matters. And that's what we're going to do. Whichever player we pick, that's the one we think gives us the best chance to be successful."
It's preemptive damage control.

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06-25-2009, 11:42 PM
  #319
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Originally Posted by CapitalsCup2010 View Post
Jan Erixon's son?
Yep. I like de Haan...I just think the size is a bit of a limitation. Smart player, though, that's come out of nowhere this season and didn't flounder after Tavares and Del Zotto were traded away.

Whatever happens tomorrow night, I just hope the TSN broadcast has a live feed of Nassau Coliseum's Islander draft party. Their fan reaction may just be the highlight of the night.

Ferraro, Holland and Morin all seem like decent bets to be available at 24 and Ferraro seems to have the best skating and competitiveness. He would be the smallest player McPhee has drafted this decade but size just for the sake of it isn't a real bright idea in the new NHL. Speed, mobility, skating...all such crucial factors these days and Ferraro brings that tenacious skating sparkplug type of game to the table (not unlike a bigger Chris Bourque).

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06-25-2009, 11:42 PM
  #320
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
It's a combination of the Isles beat writer saying it, McKenzie saying it, Burke indicating it, and the Isles defense of the pick before its made.

As a GM, if you're taking Tavares, you probably don't say this:



It's preemptive damage control.
If you aren't taking Tavares, you probably don't hype up the draft day party so much, either. I don't know.

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06-25-2009, 11:50 PM
  #321
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they should set up a live feed from the Coliseum so we can see the reaction

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06-26-2009, 12:09 AM
  #322
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If you aren't taking Tavares, you probably don't hype up the draft day party so much, either. I don't know.
Where there's smoke, there's fire.

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06-26-2009, 12:33 AM
  #323
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
It's a combination of the Isles beat writer saying it, McKenzie saying it, Burke indicating it, and the Isles defense of the pick before its made.

As a GM, if you're taking Tavares, you probably don't say this:



It's preemptive damage control.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Langway View Post
Yep. I like de Haan...I just think the size is a bit of a limitation. Smart player, though, that's come out of nowhere this season and didn't flounder after Tavares and Del Zotto were traded away.

Whatever happens tomorrow night, I just hope the TSN broadcast has a live feed of Nassau Coliseum's Islander draft party. Their fan reaction may just be the highlight of the night.


If it's any indication as what happened at the NBA draft in NY tonight (roudy booing Knicks fans all night).....tomorrow should be priceless if the Isles don't take Tavares.

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06-26-2009, 06:50 AM
  #324
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Kassian.

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06-26-2009, 10:44 AM
  #325
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2005 NHL Draft behind the scenes on NHL Network.... F'rs! Yea that show will get me motivated for tonight.

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