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Old
06-25-2009, 06:07 PM
  #176
Caniac12
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I think that what isnt recognized is that Cullen is a legit second line, top powerplay unit offensive talent when not injured. During the cup year, I believe he fought a groin injury most of the year and also had a broken Jaw. Last season, and all the way until I think he started to play well this season, the concussion was a huge factor in his game. Even with the broken foot he was not a liability on the second line. If he can remain healthy, can get consistent minutes on the top powerplay unit, you can mark him down for 60 points. The same can be said about whitney, I do expect a bit of a decline this year, but if he is healthy you can count on 60 to 70 points from him. Remember, LaRose's surge did not start until he was put on the top PK unit with Cullen, and their shorthanded goals led to him gaining a good deal of confidence, which obviously allowed him to finish off garbage goals that Cullen or Whitney just didnt put in the back of the net. LaRose does not have offensive skill, not once did he beat a goalie with a good shot, always was he knocking home a rebound. So, rather than pay LaRose nearly 2 million dollars to pick up Matt and Ray's trash, let Patty Eaves do that.

I don't want to see Cole and LaRose return to get top six roles and top six money, because they aren't close to top six players. We are much better off to play a top six of Samsonov, Staal, Ruutu, Cullen, Whitney, Jokinen than a top six of Ruutu, Staal, Cole, Cullen, Whitney, LaRose.

What would you choose?
Samsonov and Jokinen, with the option of getting a defenseman
Cole and Larose, with no option of getting a defenseman

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06-25-2009, 06:19 PM
  #177
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Why the polar opposite turn on Larose all of a sudden? Just a week ago it seems everybody wanted him back and now we're already talking like he's on the next train to Pittsburgh.

Larose is a valuable hockey player. He's an ideal third liner because he's consistent in his effort, impressive in all zones, reliable around the net, quick, and gritty. These are all attributes that you have to pay for when the time comes.

If JR is offering him a lowball contract, then he deserves to have his agent earn his 10% and extract a fair offer from us.

It must be recognized that quite a bit of his 23 goals this season were a result of him being in the right place in order to capitalize. That isn't a knock on his ability.... that's actually a good thing. There have been people that have carved out careers doing just that.

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06-25-2009, 07:15 PM
  #178
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The concern with me specifically is that I feel his agent (not necessarily him) may be pressing for second line money from us. I can't say I blame him but frankly if they're asking for the 2 million+ range like I get the feeling they are then absolutely forget about it. 1.5 is the ABSOLUTE highest I would go on LaRose.

If JR is lowballing them severely (less then 1.25 per on a 3 year deal) then yes, I don't blame him for this stance. But I get the feeling that the agents are playing hardball just as much as JR is, and the league just doesn't have the cap flexibility that it did any of the past 2 or 3 years.

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06-25-2009, 07:35 PM
  #179
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I would love to keep LaRose, but if he is asking in the $2M range, then I would walk away from him. He just isn't worth that amount and I don't want to keep falling in the same boat where we overpay guys.

Here's the thing. Back in Feb his future mother-in-law told us that Chad was going to hit free agency. So frankly I'm not surprised things are going rough. I'm not sure if he is asking for $2M or if he just wants to see what other teams are interested and what he can get. He's 27 and this is likely the ONLY chance he gets at possibly getting the cash ($2M). Now if other teams are only offering what he is actually worth $1.5-1.7 then he could stay as his fiance's family is here.

Rumor has it that Columbus might be interested in him. If so, I could see him signing there to be with his bud Commodore.

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06-25-2009, 08:33 PM
  #180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by caniac247 View Post
He's 27 and this is likely the ONLY chance he gets at possibly getting the cash ($2M).

Agreed, he has earned a pay day and the chance to get a big raise. So if he is going to be overpaid, let another team do it.

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06-25-2009, 09:23 PM
  #181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagrant View Post
Why the polar opposite turn on Larose all of a sudden? Just a week ago it seems everybody wanted him back and now we're already talking like he's on the next train to Pittsburgh.
I think most people were/are fine with signing LaRose....at a price that makes sense for us. But it's very likely that he wants more than that. And why not? He can likely get it on the open market.

Last year I suggested signing Ruutu to the same deal that Kobasew got (2.0, 2.5, and 2.5) despite coming off a 32 point season. Why? Because I believed he had upside to the point where he would outperform that contract by a great margin.

Now with LaRose, I am suggesting that - despite having a similar 31 season - that he not even get close to that salary. He's not going to outperform any contract he gets, even a reasonable one. If he manages to have another career year he might score 40 points and that will be with substantial PP time that he's not going to get here.

We need guys that will outperform their deals. We have enough players that play below their contract level or right up to it and nothing more.

Quote:
Larose is a valuable hockey player. He's an ideal third liner because he's consistent in his effort, impressive in all zones, reliable around the net, quick, and gritty. These are all attributes that you have to pay for when the time comes.

If JR is offering him a lowball contract, then he deserves to have his agent earn his 10% and extract a fair offer from us.

It must be recognized that quite a bit of his 23 goals this season were a result of him being in the right place in order to capitalize. That isn't a knock on his ability.... that's actually a good thing. There have been people that have carved out careers doing just that.
The problem is that the most goals he scored in any other season was 11. These "garbage goals" may very well dry up. He has shown no history past this season of being as opportunistic as he was.

His 11.1% shooting percentage this season wasn't that high for an offensive player, but it was high for being Chad LaRose. His previous career high was 9.4% and that number was inflated by having a hat trick in the second-to-last game of that season. His career shooting percentage outside of this year is 6.5%. Had Chad LaRose shot at 6.5% this season we'd not even be having this discussion as he'd already been signed to a cheap deal coming off an 11-goal season. We can talk all about Chad LaRose's grit, effort, and defensive play, but that's not why he's going to command a big salary. It's because he scored 19 goals. You can sign some random third/fourth liner off the market for $1M that can kill penalties and provide energy.

Chad LaRose's season this year was in many ways comparable to Kevyn Adams' back in '05-'06. Adams had 15 goals, all of which were even strength or shorthanded just like LaRose this year. And just like LaRose, those totals were higher than some of the top offensive players on the team (Brind'amour and Stillman had less than Adams). Adams shot at 9.4% that year, which was reasonable but higher than his career average...just like LaRose.

What if Adams was a UFA that year instead of still being under contract for the '06-'07 season? Do we sign him to a big multi-year deal? As it turns out, Adams dropped off the face of the earth after that season, scoring 3 goals in 95 games before retiring. Maybe we are stuck with him and his salary instead of being able to trade him for Seidenberg when he began to suck. Maybe we are talking about Kevyn Adams' hypothetically still-existing bad contract this offseason to go along with Brind'amour's, Kaberle's, Wallin's, and Walker's.

What if Chad LaRose comes back down to earth? I'm not saying he will never score 19 goals again, but having a season of 19 even strength/shorthanded goals likely isn't going to happen. And since he's never going to get powerplay time here with all the better wingers and better prospect wingers we have, we can't afford to pay him the going market rate of 19 goals.

Now compare him to Ruutu. Ruutu shot at 13.7% this season, but he also has previous seasons of of 14.8% and 13.2%. His career average is 12.8%. Ruutu, based on past history, is likely to repeat his career season if not outright surpass it. Yeah, he never had 54 points before but he also never had the quality of ice time to get those shot totals that he had this year.

Chad LaRose's role on the team isn't going to be bigger than it already is. He's not going to improve much more and may regress off this season. You don't sink money into someone who's not going to be able to outperform his deal.


Last edited by impeach estaalo: 06-25-2009 at 09:32 PM.
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06-25-2009, 09:36 PM
  #182
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The thing about Larose is that he has improved every season of his career thus far. Some people believe he has hit a wall while others say that he has scored and scored well at every level he has ever played and may now be finally turning into a scoring line forward. He had 11 goals in 58 games last year and probably would have approached 16-20 again had he played a full season. I think a third line forward with that kind of ability should be able to cash in at $1.5 to $1.75 without mucking up the finances too much. I agree though, if he's asking for $2 million then bail on it.... but I would be really disappointed if he signed for less than $2 million somewhere else.

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06-25-2009, 10:13 PM
  #183
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We need to trade for Kaberle, maybe it will make our Kaberle play better. Plus his contract is a steal. A man can dream.

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06-25-2009, 10:15 PM
  #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GloveSave View Post
We need to trade for Kaberle, maybe it will make our Kaberle play better. Plus his contract is a steal. A man can dream.
Patrick Eaves and the #27 overall for Kaberle.

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06-25-2009, 10:29 PM
  #185
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Eh, this was posted on the main Canes site, but it made a lot of sense. His shooting percentage may have been high for him, or it might just be a normal progression of talent. Just about every measured stat for LaRose was higher this year than it was last year.

PHP Code:
       07-08     08-09
GP
:      58        81
PIM
:     46        35
S
%:      9.1%      11.1%
GvA:     14        19
TkA
:     24        49
HPG
:     1.25      1.49
BSPG
:   .25       .53 

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06-26-2009, 06:07 AM
  #186
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ZOMG! http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hocke...95591219_x.htm

Quote:
Rutherford said he would like to give a slight bump up to the team's payroll of $50 million last season.

"It's a difficult year projecting where the revenues might be with this economy," he said. "This is a year, on an operating basis, where the team was in the black, so that was good. But that just dealt with this (past) year, and now we have to project next year."
More money to overpay Erik Cole with.

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06-26-2009, 06:39 AM
  #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
Eh, this was posted on the main Canes site, but it made a lot of sense. His shooting percentage may have been high for him, or it might just be a normal progression of talent. Just about every measured stat for LaRose was higher this year than it was last year.

PHP Code:
       07-08     08-09
GP
:      58        81
PIM
:     46        35
S
%:      9.1%      11.1%
GvA:     14        19
TkA
:     24        49
HPG
:     1.25      1.49
BSPG
:   .25       .53 
LaRose scored 7 goals on his first 39 shots (18%), then 12 goals on his next 132 (9.1%). Including the playoffs that's 16 goals on his next 183 shots (8.7%). Once he cooled down from his hot streak at the beginning of the season, he shot at right around his career average. This is what most players do. They don't randomly learn how to shoot better at the age of 26/27, they just sometimes get lucky like Mike Ribeiro, Jordan Staal, Marek Svatos, Petr Prucha and all the other guys who had high shooting percentages and then came back down to earth the next season. "Opportunistic garbage goals" pretty much describes the extent of Chad LaRose's offensive ability.

He's a 15-goal energy guy, not a 20+ goal second liner. He has no history of shooting at this rate and his goals/SH% numbers came down as the season progressed. His assist totals went up, but it would have been pretty hard to get any lower than they were (3 assists in first 47 games).

That's another thing. Everybody talks about how we need to re-sign him because of his 20...er, 19 goals (I am sure glad he didn't hit 20; now we don't have to hear for the rest of the offseason about losing a "20 goal scorer") but very rarely do his 12 assists get brought up. How in the world do you play so often with two 20 goal scorers (both of whom got most of their goals at even strength) and only get 12 assists?

His point-per-game average was actually very similar to the year before, it's just that his numbers trended to goals rather than assists. To call it a "career year" is not only incorrect, it's also an insult to career years. He had 31 points. People make a big deal out of the 19 goals because that's what makes him look good. Only five fewer goals than Whitney, three more than Samsonov!!!...but a billion fewer assists.

And to deal with the high ES goal production: Chad LaRose just doesn't generate enough offense 5-on-5 to be considered a scoring line player. Despite his nice even strength goal totals, the number of goals his team scored with him on the ice was low. His 2.32 goals-for/60 at 5-on-5 was behind Cullen, Cole, Whitney, Ruutu and Staal (and a number of defensemen but I'm not including them). The only notable forward with a lower rate was Samsonov. The year before it was behind Cole, Williams, Staal, Cullen, Ruutu, Brind'amour and Whitney. So even if you ignore PP time he's still not on these guys' levels. 19 even strength/shorthanded goals is great, but his assist total was very low.

He's not a Top 6 forward and shouldn't be paid like one. Anything more than the $1.7M Eaves is making in the final year of his deal is overpayment. We're already paying Eaves to fill Chad LaRose's spot, so why pay Chad LaRose himself more to do the same thing?

He may be some great fan favorite now, but when he goes 12 games without a point (as he did from November 28 to December 23) or racks up a stunning 3 assists in his first 47 games (seriously, how is that even possible?) while making $2M+, fans will start to get on him like they do with Cole's frequent slumps. He's not a Top 6 forward but will be expected to produce like one while making that money, which means less money for actual Top 6 forwards.


Last edited by impeach estaalo: 06-26-2009 at 06:56 AM.
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06-26-2009, 07:09 AM
  #188
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Couldn't agree more, AB. Larose is the perfect 3rd line energy guy whose true value should be around 1.5 million at the most. He can play spot duty on the 2nd line, but he's not a true 2nd liner since he has practically no playmaking ability and misses way too many good chances. He's a grinder best suited for a checking line/PKing. I appreciate his relentless effort but we can't afford to sign another player to a bad contract. I would love for him to come back but I won't be surprised if he gets a 2+ million dollar offer from another team desperate for a player like him. Our organization can't and shouldn't pay that much if that happens, especially when we're already paying a player like him in Eaves 1.4 million a season.

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06-26-2009, 07:18 AM
  #189
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This man speaks the truth. Very well analyzed, and spot on re: LaRose. i'll come at it from another angle - I think a lot of people can just LOOK at the way Chad plays, his style, etc. and KNOW he will never be a GREAT 2nd line player.

He's not that great with the puck, his assist deficiency for where he played has already been mentioned. He's not big enough to fight hard at the net - size wise he's a Whitney but put just those 2 on the ice at the same time, run them through some drills and anybody could see the difference.

He is a fantastic energy guy. A little ball of energy that is fun to watch and can get under the skin of SOME medium-sized opponents.

Beyond that, we've likely seen the best of what he has to offer. so what's our max price for that? Loyalty be danged - he and Cole have already shown how deep that river flows.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Anton Babchuk View Post
LaRose scored 7 goals on his first 39 shots (18%), then 12 goals on his next 132 (9.1%). Including the playoffs that's 16 goals on his next 183 shots (8.7%). Once he cooled down from his hot streak at the beginning of the season, he shot at right around his career average. This is what most players do. They don't randomly learn how to shoot better at the age of 26/27, they just sometimes get lucky like Mike Ribeiro, Jordan Staal, Marek Svatos, Petr Prucha and all the other guys who had high shooting percentages and then came back down to earth the next season. "Opportunistic garbage goals" pretty much describes the extent of Chad LaRose's offensive ability.

He's a 15-goal energy guy, not a 20+ goal second liner. He has no history of shooting at this rate and his goals/SH% numbers came down as the season progressed. His assist totals went up, but it would have been pretty hard to get any lower than they were (3 assists in first 47 games).

That's another thing. Everybody talks about how we need to re-sign him because of his 20...er, 19 goals (I am sure glad he didn't hit 20; now we don't have to hear for the rest of the offseason about losing a "20 goal scorer") but very rarely do his 12 assists get brought up. How in the world do you play so often with two 20 goal scorers (both of whom got most of their goals at even strength) and only get 12 assists?

His point-per-game average was actually very similar to the year before, it's just that his numbers trended to goals rather than assists. To call it a "career year" is not only incorrect, it's also an insult to career years. He had 31 points. People make a big deal out of the 19 goals because that's what makes him look good. Only five fewer goals than Whitney, three more than Samsonov!!!...but a billion fewer assists.

And to deal with the high ES goal production: Chad LaRose just doesn't generate enough offense 5-on-5 to be considered a scoring line player. Despite his nice even strength goal totals, the number of goals his team scored with him on the ice was low. His 2.32 goals-for/60 at 5-on-5 was behind Cullen, Cole, Whitney, Ruutu and Staal (and a number of defensemen but I'm not including them). The only notable forward with a lower rate was Samsonov. The year before it was behind Cole, Williams, Staal, Cullen, Ruutu, Brind'amour and Whitney. So even if you ignore PP time he's still not on these guys' levels. 19 even strength/shorthanded goals is great, but his assist total was very low.

He's not a Top 6 forward and shouldn't be paid like one. Anything more than the $1.7M Eaves is making in the final year of his deal is overpayment. We're already paying Eaves to fill Chad LaRose's spot, so why pay Chad LaRose himself more to do the same thing?

He may be some great fan favorite now, but when he goes 12 games without a point (as he did from November 28 to December 23) or racks up a stunning 3 assists in his first 47 games (seriously, how is that even possible?) while making $2M+, fans will start to get on him like they do with Cole's frequent slumps. He's not a Top 6 forward but will be expected to produce like one while making that money, which means less money for actual Top 6 forwards.

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06-29-2009, 10:00 AM
  #190
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Chip with updates on contract situation.

On Cole and Larose:
Quote:
"Originally, we were looking at a one-year contract with Erik, but before leaving for the draft we moved it to two years," Rutherford said. "You put out the best deal you can. We think we've made both of them fair offers. But what we think is fair and what they think is fair can be two different things."
On Babchuk
Quote:
Rutherford said the team would not be actively looking to make a trade or at free agents to fill the void. He again mentioned veteran defenseman Frantisek Kaberle and sound very optimistic that Anton Babchuk, a restricted free agent, would return.

"Babchuk, with Joni Pitkanen, could round out our top four," he said.
On Bayda:

Quote:
The Canes' other unrestricted free agent, forward Ryan Bayda, has been offered a two-way contract and likely will test the market, as well, Rutherford said.

"That does mean we do not want Ryan back," Rutherford said. "We would like to keep our options open at that position with so many young players coming along. I can understand why Ryan might like to go into July to see if he can get a one-way contract."

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06-29-2009, 11:27 AM
  #191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmonk View Post
Chip with updates on contract situation.

On Cole and Larose:


On Babchuk


On Bayda:
hard to argue with any of those comments.

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06-29-2009, 11:30 AM
  #192
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I knew the length of the deal was the hold-up with Cole. I wouldn't want to give him anything more than a year (if that) as well. And if I'm Cole, I definitely want at least two years. I'm thinking he'll grab the two-year deal. Not sure what they're offering Rosey. As with the details coming out about Cole's contract, when JR thinks he's really being fair, he usually spills how fair he's being. The fact that we've heard no details on the LaRose contract from JR means to me they're trying to lowball him. Again.

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06-29-2009, 11:33 AM
  #193
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I agree about Cole and LaRose. I understand JR's reasoning about Bayda, although that makes Conboy's 1-way deal for 2009-10 even more baffling. Conboy's deal doesn't hurt the odds of signing Cole or LaRose, but it does hurt with the Bayda negotiations.

One thing that concerns me is that JR may be underestimating Babchuk's options. The cap is not changing much from last season. Last year, the cap number range for a 2nd round pick in compensation was 1.3 million to 2.6 million. I can certainly see someone throwing an offer in that range at Babchuk and losing him for a 2nd. Maybe JR would be OK with that, but losing Seidenberg and not having Kaberle's 2.2 million to play with are big enough problems.

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06-29-2009, 11:54 AM
  #194
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Has there been any indication on who we have offered as far as RFAs go?

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06-29-2009, 11:56 AM
  #195
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Having Spazzchuk round out our Top 4 doesn't have me all warm/fuzzy inside. I'd much rather have Kaberle at this point. When Corvo was first traded here, he was paired with Kaberle and I thought those 2 actually played very well together. I'd rather reunite those 2 on the 2nd pairing and put Pitkanen/Gleason on the 1st.

Guess we'll find out soon enough if Spazzchuk is the answer.

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06-29-2009, 12:01 PM
  #196
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JR has a pretty impressive knack for screwing up bottom pairing signings. For whatever reason, he doesn't like a revolving door on the 4th line at league minimum so he offers players 1 way contracts just to keep the room the exact same. Conboy, Bayda, and Brookbank were recipients of that kind of love last offseason. He corrected that by dealing Brookbank and I like the fact that he's not going to put himself out there on Bayda. Conboy could be a healthy all year and not hurt us.

However, I do not like the idea of lack of signability of veterans being a reason to rush our prospects.... but such is life for a budget driven team.

Even with Ruutu projected in the $3.5 to $4 range and Jokinen at around $2 and Babchuk around $1 we should be sitting somewhere in the $47 million range.... which is about $3.5 to $4 million away from where we usually keep our budget.

I predict we sign a depth forward with Top 6 upside and allow 2 of Bowman/Sutter/Boychuk to make the team.

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06-29-2009, 12:03 PM
  #197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaberlay View Post
Has there been any indication on who we have offered as far as RFAs go?
As far as I can tell, no specific indication but he hasn't mentioned anybody that he wouldn't qualify. I would imagine the only candidate being Helminen who would gather a collective shrug from the fanbase if he didn't come back. Jokinen, Babchuk, and Ruutu are slam dunks.

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06-29-2009, 12:18 PM
  #198
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Conboy's one-way deal isnt baffling at all. He is making a paltry .5 million and can play defense or forward if pressed by injuries. And will provide the team with a forward willing to run around and mix things up if a matchup dictates it. Most of the time he will be in the pressbox but for half a million he is a versitile last guy on the roster.

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06-29-2009, 12:21 PM
  #199
Vagrant
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eerodynamic View Post
Conboy's one-way deal isnt baffling at all. He is making a paltry .5 million and can play defense or forward if pressed by injuries. And will provide the team with a forward willing to run around and mix things up if a matchup dictates it. Most of the time he will be in the pressbox but for half a million he is a versitile last guy on the roster.
It seems to me that Conboy is a fighter that while willing, can't finish fights a quarter as well as he can start them. He does bring a physical presence, but his offensive game is sorely lacking. I would have assumed there are players like Craig Adams all over the league that would love a one way contract and could play just as physical while still chipping in a few goals per season.

Conboy was given the one way deal in the second year of the contract to insure that he'd still be a Hurricane in case we needed him last year and now we're paying for that luxury by having him lock up a roster spot.

Still not a huge deal. You know it's getting about time for camp when we're discussing the merits of Tim Conboy at the league minimum as opposed to other options.

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06-29-2009, 01:44 PM
  #200
DaveG
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Originally Posted by Vagrant View Post
As far as I can tell, no specific indication but he hasn't mentioned anybody that he wouldn't qualify. I would imagine the only candidate being Helminen who would gather a collective shrug from the fanbase if he didn't come back. Jokinen, Babchuk, and Ruutu are slam dunks.
I don't see Babin being qualified, don't see Angelidis being qualified either after drafting Kennedy and signing Pistilli. Flood I'm 50/50 on, depends on if we sign a depth defenseman or not, or if Kaberle jets.

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