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Best and Worst of the 2009 Draft

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Old
06-28-2009, 10:14 PM
  #426
Lucbourdon
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Originally Posted by JMFJ 3 View Post
Actually it's quite the opposite, probably one of those guys will be a total bust (Rajala) and one will never exceed expectations (MSP).
Well the counter to that is, you can have MSP become a star and rajaja become a solid 2nd liner.

ps: Damn I feel like I'm becoming a Edmonton fan over this past week, I need to stop complementing them. I feel dirty.

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06-28-2009, 10:16 PM
  #427
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Originally Posted by Lucbourdon View Post
Well the counter to that is, you can have MSP become a star and rajaja become a solid 2nd liner.

ps: Damn I feel like I'm becoming a Edmonton fan over this past week, I need to stop complementing them. I feel dirty.
That's best case scenario of course , I like MSP but he needs to work on his shot.

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Old
06-28-2009, 10:16 PM
  #428
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Imagine they both became huge stars though..

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06-28-2009, 10:32 PM
  #429
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Originally Posted by zenator1 View Post
My observation is based on MS's post showing how these "drops" usually end up.
So instead of being 'cool', you decide to found your decisions on cherry-picked anecdotes. Definitely not cool, or intelligent for that matter. There are just as many examples of 'fallers' who went on to prove their draft position wrong; if I can list more examples than Mess did, does that make me right?

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Old
06-28-2009, 10:33 PM
  #430
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Originally Posted by JMFJ 3 View Post
Actually it's quite the opposite, probably one of those guys will be a total bust (Rajala) and one will never exceed expectations (MSP).
What's the math behind that brilliant statement?

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Old
06-28-2009, 10:33 PM
  #431
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Originally Posted by SK13 View Post
I don't remotely agree with boom-or-bust for MPS.

When you're 6'2, 200lbs and are one of the finest skaters in the draft, you'll probably make the NHL in some capacity. Maybe the offense doesn't quite work out and he levels off in a second/third line player - but you take the damn flier each and every time.
Yeah this is something that has been confusing the crap out of me from the internet scouts as well, MPS looks like a legit NHL in some form.

I think his ceiling seems to be high as well, I think he's a great pick and will look like a steal in the future.

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06-28-2009, 10:44 PM
  #432
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Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
What's the math behind that brilliant statement?
Total speculation on my part, I'm not really concerned about MSP because his skating is great but Rajala will have to prove me wrong and make me eat crow in a few years.

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Old
06-29-2009, 02:39 AM
  #433
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Originally Posted by Modo View Post
There must have been something else with Schroeder that convinced 2/3 of the league to pass on him.
Who says they passed? Theoretically, Schroeder could have been the #3 prospect on every team's list in the draft, and he still goes 22nd, if the two guys ahead of him for each team were still available. IE, if Tampa's list was Hedman, Tavares, Schroeder, and Toronto's list was Tavares, Kadri, Schroeder...

Now obviously, that's not realistic, but certainly at some lower point it becomes probable. He could have easily been top 10 on every team's list, etc.

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Old
06-29-2009, 03:05 AM
  #434
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Personally, for my team, I love getting Hutchings at 93. That IMO, is a steal.

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Old
06-29-2009, 06:21 AM
  #435
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I don't think this will ever happen, but if you took the Memorial cup winner vs SEL champ I would bet 9 out of 10 times the Memorial cup winner would completely dominate the SEL team.
What, you actually mean this?!

ANY team in the SEL would steamroll the Memorial Cup champions so badly it wouldn't even be entertaining to watch. Ten out of ten times. This is entirely different levels of hockey we're talking about here. The top guys like Tavares or Duchene are good enough to compete, but that's it. The lower half of even the best CHL team would be mercilessly exposed and made a mockery of.

This is why guys who are marginal players in the SEL get drafted ahead of kids who are dominant CHL players. An average CHL team would be lucky to have 1 or 2 players good enough to make a SEL squad.

cheers


Last edited by Qvist: 06-29-2009 at 06:31 AM.
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Old
06-29-2009, 03:36 PM
  #436
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Couple of issues concerning the Blackhawks draft:

1. It was heavily skewed : 6 of their 8 picks were centres (desperation in the org for depth at centre in the pipeline?)....This "quantity"approach plus its mix of some skill but average or smaller size (Pirri+ Kruger) some BIG centres (Deslisle+Pacan) plus some average size (Froese+Gilbert) is to me like throwing you know what at the wall and hoping some of it sticks.

2. They opted for a D-man (albeit a good choice and legit pick at the #28 slot in Dylan Olsen) BUT gave up the opportunity cost in bypassing the best BIG centre solution in Budish ...Alternatively,had they taken the Budish solution to that other need THEN they could still have gotten a Big Physical D--man at #59 (albeit not with Olsen's offensive upside and booming shot)...However-once Budish went at #41-there was no other comparable BIG centre valued at close to anything but a far gap from #59---the value option at centre then was a smaller skilled guy-BUT was Pirri that guy when Tatar was still on the board.. THAT is the question!


3. Olsen at least was properly slotted... However Pirri was ranked as 3rd round material by both Central Scouting (#75 N.A.S.) and by Redline's Kyle Woodlief who said that some negatives keptPirri from going higher than a 3rd rounder(average skater,slight build ,does not work hard away from the puck) ...Then while I like BIG Dan Deslisle -I think he was overvalued a round early as a 3rd rounder (central Scouting had him at #138 N.A.S.--but the Hawks probably were forced to take him ealier because he's be off the board in the late 4th when they picked again)..

THUS I have concerns and quibbles with both Tallon's draft strategy and his pick value to the pick slot..



Alternatively-I would have taken BUDISH at #28 (the best BIG centre solution) then taken Helgeson at #59 (Size+physical nasty stay at home type -though dmittedly without Olsen's offense) then they could have still got Deslisle at #89 if they wanted to overvalue -or maybe I myself would have taken Henrik Bjorklund
as a BPA over Deslisle in that draftslot....I could then have traded up to get Deslisle too probably at that point..


BOTTOM LINE: HAWKS could have done better IMO--both strategically and value-wise...what saves the draft is that Olsen is a fine pick --properly valued at #28..AND they may get returns on some of their later round picks...they originally did not have a 6th rounder but traded for one (giving a 5th next year) and took David Pacan --I've seen him play and I think he might be a steal there..I think he could develop into a good NHl'er down the line with 2nd line upside or at least third line ability
--so that was a very good move to get him when he still was on the board.

Deslisle at least skates very well for his size and plays 2 ways...At 6'4 222 that is an interesting player-but to only be ranked #138 by Central scouting --well there must be some negatives =douts about his finishing at the next level? or his intensity? Or his physicality for his size? There has to be something wrong because the gap between himand Budish in te rankings pre-draft was so vast.
Usually skating explains a gap--but in this case Delisle is a better skater..and his H.S. stats suggest a good scorer-so I suspect it has to be intensirty or physical grit lacking..Maybe he is just a Big "finesse" centre like Booby Smith
or "Le Gros Bill"-still they had great NHl careers..

So this looks like a real wait and see draft ..none of these guys i suspect will have short one or two year developments before they get to the NHl --think 4 years of university for those going that route (except for Olsen who could be 2-3 years ready)...for Froese and Gilbert as WHL and QMJHL'ers -it willbe 2 more years Jr--then if signed willbe some time in Rockford..


Thus the returns on this draft are a long way off for the Blackhawks.


IF Budish (with his already pro body) goes more than 2 years before joining NASH --I'llbe surprised...He;ll improvbe his skating and be ready a lot sooner.


I do hope that 4-5 years from now, I don't have to post a COULDA SHOULDA about this draft of the Blackhawks..I hope that more than Olsen "makes it" down the line,and you can bet that IF BUDISH shines more than OLSEN , OR TATAR or HELGESON "makes it" while PIRRI does not--then big questons wilbe thrown at the vaunted Hawks braintrust ..the Hawks had options to go a different strategic route but once they got trapped on the value of BIG centres remaining for #59 the choice of which smaller skilled centre to choose may have been the wrong one...

Maybe his RPI coach will teach Pirri to play hard defensively..maybe he will grow and or add bulk--maybe he will emege a much better player after college than he is going in--THEN if he makes it and shines in the NHl,the Hawks scouts will get the glory for their brilliant "steal" ... It is now upto PIRRI to show the Hawks fans that our braintrust made the right call.


What I dread though -is 5 years from now seeing Budish "dominate" some smaller centre we have out there...Unless Olsen can "neutralize him" from the D position--that is the trade-off Tallon had to make and he'll ned to live with the consequences of his decision.

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Old
06-29-2009, 03:56 PM
  #437
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I don't remotely agree with boom-or-bust for MPS.

When you're 6'2, 200lbs and are one of the finest skaters in the draft, you'll probably make the NHL in some capacity. Maybe the offense doesn't quite work out and he levels off in a second/third line player - but you take the damn flier each and every time.
sounds like Raffi Torres, who went 5th overall

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Old
06-29-2009, 04:06 PM
  #438
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Originally Posted by ACCBlue View Post
sounds like Raffi Torres, who went 5th overall
Torres isn't quite the same level of a skater and likes to shoot pucks from the outside instead of driving to the net. He also has trouble making passes.

I'd also suggest that there are things other than hockey sense or lack of finish that have held him back. I don't even think I need to be vague here - he flat out admitted to partying too hard in the media during his last year in Edmonton.

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Old
06-29-2009, 09:31 PM
  #439
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sounds like Raffi Torres, who went 5th overall
I wouldn't call Torres a bust.

He is a pretty good player who would be a top 9 forward on any team in the league.

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Old
06-29-2009, 10:19 PM
  #440
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MPS. Schroeder

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Old
06-30-2009, 02:39 AM
  #441
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I'd have to agree that if there's one player where it is really hard to see any potential for a bust, it's MPS.

The tools he has already developed should be moret han sufficient to make him a good player. He's a great skater, big and strong, competetive, excellent puck skilles, good playmaker, drives to the net, competetive. He doesn't have to develop into a big goal scorer to be an effective player - there is such a thing as a playmaking winger. For that matter, he has the tools to be a terrific two-way player, if someone should want to turn him into that. AFAICS, there is practically no projection involved - except as to whether he's going to be a star and not merely a good player.

I would say that everyone in the top ten apart from the top 3 have a much greater bust potential, in the way that there is more projection involved - will f.e. the physical dominance Kand and Schenn display in the WHL necessarily translate to the NHL, given that these are medium-sized players? Will Schenn be able to thrive with what amounts to pretty unexceptional skating without much explosiveness?

OEL is an excellent prospect, but he is not as far along the curve as MPS is, and hence, again, more projection. Kadri is a player with a somewhat similar style, but he does not have the physical tools MPS have and also not the same ability to use his teammates - more projection. Cowen, there you have the injury issue.

cheers

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Old
06-30-2009, 07:44 AM
  #442
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I'd have to agree that if there's one player where it is really hard to see any potential for a bust, it's MPS.

The tools he has already developed should be moret han sufficient to make him a good player. He's a great skater, big and strong, competetive, excellent puck skilles, good playmaker, drives to the net, competetive. He doesn't have to develop into a big goal scorer to be an effective player - there is such a thing as a playmaking winger. For that matter, he has the tools to be a terrific two-way player, if someone should want to turn him into that. AFAICS, there is practically no projection involved - except as to whether he's going to be a star and not merely a good player.

I would say that everyone in the top ten apart from the top 3 have a much greater bust potential, in the way that there is more projection involved - will f.e. the physical dominance Kand and Schenn display in the WHL necessarily translate to the NHL, given that these are medium-sized players? Will Schenn be able to thrive with what amounts to pretty unexceptional skating without much explosiveness?

OEL is an excellent prospect, but he is not as far along the curve as MPS is, and hence, again, more projection. Kadri is a player with a somewhat similar style, but he does not have the physical tools MPS have and also not the same ability to use his teammates - more projection. Cowen, there you have the injury issue.

cheers
I agree.

His absolute downside is Robert Nilsson, someone Edmonton is familiar with, but that said, MSP is a complete package and is definitely to be considered in the same breath as Kane, Schenn and Kadri. Let there be no doubt about that!

Chances are, this kid has more Markus Naslund/Daniel Alfredsson possibilities than anything else.

A wonderful first rounder for Edmonton.

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Old
06-30-2009, 11:50 AM
  #443
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Kadri is a player with a somewhat similar style, but he does not have the physical tools MPS have and also not the same ability to use his teammates
not understanding you here...

Kadri 53 assists in 56 games...not the same ability to use teammates?

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Old
06-30-2009, 02:37 PM
  #444
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Originally Posted by joe89 View Post
Pretty much all SEL first and second liners could probably play in NHL with ease, but why would you draft possible fourth liners from Europe when there's so many of that kind already playing small rinks i NA. And all the memorial juniors will not pan out in the NHL, but that's the beauty of a draft.
I think you are overrating the SEL...

...anyway for those whos unimpressed by MSP producing in the SEL remember this:

It IS a proffessional mens leauge, even though some Swedes tend to overrate it for some reason.

He got limited ice time. Dont think he even got a chance to play PP.

I think the SEL is lower in scoring average than for instance CHL (just a guess though)

2nd assists is a bit harder to get in Sweden compared to NA.

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Old
06-30-2009, 03:03 PM
  #445
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If this were the 2006, 2007 or 2008 draft class - Hedman more than likely would have been picked first. But when you're in a class with a guy who scored 72 goals as a 16 year old in a league that churns out WAY more NHL'ers than the SEL does, you're not going to get a consensus easily. And even then, there's a lot of speculation that it was a PR thing - going with the flashy pick.

As for only one in the top 5 - whatever. We picked the ONLY other
Swede even worth discussing as a top-5 pick (and I'm ecstatic about it) and he was picked AFTER Oliver-Ekman Larsson went way higher then I think anyone had him.

This Anti-Swede stuff is nonsense. It was an amazing NHL draft for Sweden. You should be proud that your nation had 7 times as many prospects taken in the first round then any other European nation.
OEL was the consensus BPA available from any nation after the top 5. Bob McKenzie who knows a thing or two about hockey even declared this much. OEL was the right choice at #6

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Old
06-30-2009, 04:21 PM
  #446
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OEL was the consensus BPA available from any nation after the top 5. Bob McKenzie who knows a thing or two about hockey even declared this much. OEL was the right choice at #6
OEL wasn't the consensus BPA. Consensus means everybody, I can safely say that at least Edmonton had him after Kulikov outside the top-7.

And McKenzie's mock wasn't done by BPA. At least it didn't read like he was going by Best player available.


Last edited by SK13: 06-30-2009 at 06:58 PM.
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