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Oilers News and Blog Reports 07/13/09 Are you nervous about Grebeshkov?

View Poll Results: Still no contract with Grebeshkov, are you nervous?
No, they will get him signed 90 82.57%
No, they won't sign him, but I didn't want him to 0 0%
Yes, I worry they will lose him 19 17.43%
Voters: 109. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-13-2009, 01:47 PM
  #51
Fan 4 Life
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash Walken View Post
I will respond with any kind of nonsense in kind, as I think I have demonstrated in this forum. To say that the oilers are lucky that they don't have a player of Bouwmeesters ability is laughable. Bouwmeester is a elite level player signed for long term at a below market value contract who is under 25 years old.

Any team in the league would have benefited from that signing. He is a player you move pieces to get if you can get him.



Jokinen had 15 points in 18 games on a brand new team and almost single handedly won two playoff games for the Flames.

Since the lockout, he has averaged goals, assist and point totals that Horcoff has never hit in his single best season.

For Lombardi and a 1st rounder a year from now and the inability to re-sign a player who finally scored goals and had chemistry with Iginla, that is a great trade.
Fixed it for ya partner. Really not that great of a trade now is it?

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Old
07-13-2009, 01:56 PM
  #52
Flash Walken
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Originally Posted by Fan 4 Life View Post
Fixed it for ya partner. Really not that great of a trade now is it?
you must not have noticed the scoring explosiong jokinen had when he first arrived with iginla, and incredible chemistry he showed with Bourque, Moss and the defense (Phaneuf especially) during the playoffs, all while still adjusting to a new system and team.

Does anyone on this board really think Jokinen will score less than 30 goals next year?

I didn't even bring him up, what kind of inferiority complex is that?

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Old
07-13-2009, 02:04 PM
  #53
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07-13-2009, 02:15 PM
  #54
dubya
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giant Moo View Post
It means nothing of the sort.

If there are 4 ways to compute QoC, why not 5? If 5, why not 6?

Why can't all of them be wrong?

More importantly, there can't be two different ways to compute different numbers but called the same thing. You can't say "there are four ways to compute QoC". It's fishing.

It's an exercise to parameterize completely subjective rationale and make it look objective and scientific. In short, a form of ignorance at best, deception at worst.

It's not a useful tool if no one can agree on how to calculate it, and when it's calculated, how to interpret the numbers. Not to mention the whole Texas Sharpshooter fallacy where people do the calculations first, then determine which one was the One True Method after.
For the first part, I'm gonna assume you know what the word "might" means. I said it "might" mean only one of the equations is right. There are other possibilities.

As for the rest, you're being a bit dramatic. Ignorance? Deception? Jesus, it's a way to rank the difficulty of a players minutes. To determine its validity, we can only compare to our subjective observations. However, if enough people do that and most agree that the QoC rankings reflect the line matching that goes on, it can be agreed that it is a useful tool. From that time on, it can be used in place of watching every single hockey game and observing levels of competitions. If you don't like it, don't use it, but I can't currently think of a way to determine if it works other than comparing it to what we've seen. Does that leave room for bias? Sure. Does it mean it's ignorance, deception, or otherwise useless? Not in my opinion, but you're welcome to keep on beating your anti-QoC drum.

These tools are new, hence not everyone is going to agree. It's through this process of refinement that better tools are made. Throwing them all out, as you seem to suggest, would be counterproductive.

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Old
07-13-2009, 03:10 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Fan 4 Life View Post
Fixed it for ya partner. Really not that great of a trade now is it?
Cammalleri moved on, big deal. Twice has scored 30 goals, Jokinen 6 times. Cammelleri's best season with Iginla. Many players have had their best seasons with Jarome, which includes current and former players Conroy/Langkow/Tanquay/Huselius - maybe it is the fact they play with Jarome and that should be factored in. It is possible Jokinen could score 40 playing with Jarome and Cammalleri could score 20 playing with the other smurfs in Montreal, so the trade looks fine to everyone except Oiler fans who hate anything Calgary does.

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Old
07-13-2009, 03:11 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Using which "context" to apply is subjective unless you have developed a "theory of everything" which applies in all situations.

Have you?
How about you try again in English.

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Old
07-13-2009, 03:20 PM
  #57
Senor Catface
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash Walken View Post
I will respond with any kind of nonsense in kind, as I think I have demonstrated in this forum. To say that the oilers are lucky that they don't have a player of Bouwmeesters ability is laughable. Bouwmeester is a elite level player signed for long term at a below market value contract who is under 25 years old.

You've made hundreds of posts with the sole intent to piss off Oiler fans on this board. Spare me the grandeur of the message board hero. You, for due reason, are one of the few posters I will never take seriously.

Not like you don't deserve it, the occasional sensiable post or not.

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Old
07-13-2009, 04:04 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Little Fury View Post
How about you try again in English.
The english is actually perfect - something quite unusual for this board. What don't you get?

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Old
07-13-2009, 04:18 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by theoil View Post
The english is actually perfect - something quite unusual for this board. What don't you get?
Perhaps it's the context which is being applied to the English.

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Old
07-13-2009, 04:30 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by dubya View Post
Those were just raw Corsi numbers. Hence, a player who spends a lot of time on the ice (check) against good players (check) on a poor team (check) will be more likely to have a poor Corsi. Corsi numbers are useful, but like everything they require context. Those who support Corsi tend to acknowledge that and often provide that context (noting what type of opposition the player played, whether he was used in a defensive (own zone) role, etc).

I'd certainly agree that raw Corsi numbers are relatively useless without correcting for TOI and noting the level of competition, etc.
So, let me ask you then, when does Corsi become meaningful?

When corrected for TOI and Qualcomp?

What is etc. here?

Does picking and choosing the "corrections" or "context" in which to express the meaning of Corsi demonstrate bias?

I've often seen it argued that Horcoff is among the top 9 centres in the league based on "advanced statistics" particularly the oft mentioned "outscoring" as a foundation for that argument.

Whenever I've tried to provide some "context" to that argument by indicating PP and PK production, or lack thereof, should be included as a vital element of that argument, it has been ignored every time. So has the rather small margin by which he outscores at ES.

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Old
07-13-2009, 04:49 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theoil View Post
The english is actually perfect - something quite unusual for this board. What don't you get?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Perhaps it's the context which is being applied to the English.


For a moment there I thought LF might have been Chris Langan, but sadly no such luck.

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Old
07-13-2009, 04:56 PM
  #62
dubya
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
So, let me ask you then, when does Corsi become meaningful?

When corrected for TOI and Qualcomp?

What is etc. here?
The more context, the better, but certainly correcting for ice time is the first necessary step (otherwise it's mostly just a measure of how much you're on the ice, IMO). I'm not a huge Corsi supporter, but I think it's a useful measure of how much time you're spending in each end. For that to be useful, you need to know how much time you spend on the ice (so you can do corsi/60min or whatever), what level of competition your playing, and where your shifts start, I think. How good your linemates and team are will also factor in, but I think the good players will have better Corsi even without those corrections, and certainly in comparison to their teammates.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Does picking and choosing the "corrections" or "context" in which to express the meaning of Corsi demonstrate bias?
I don't see how obtaining MORE information could lead to bias, as long as you aren't picking and choosing information.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
I've often seen it argued that Horcoff is among the top 9 centres in the league based on "advanced statistics" particularly the oft mentioned "outscoring" as a foundation for that argument.

Whenever I've tried to provide some "context" to that argument by indicating PP and PK production, or lack thereof, should be included as a vital element of that argument, it has been ignored every time. So has the rather small margin by which he outscores at ES.
These stats are only for 5x5 play. I would agree that some of the most ardent supporters of these methods tend to undervalue special teams play. In the end GF-GA is what matters, and if you suck at 5x5 but dominate on the PP that's fine too, IMO, as long as you are driving goal differential in a positive direction. However, most of the game is at even strength, so players that can dominate (outscore) at evens are the most valuable. I'm ambivalent towards Horcoff...I actually figure $5.5M isn't bad considering how much he plays and how well he does against tough competition, but at the same time contract values have historically been based almost entirely on scoring (for forwards), and by that metric he is probably overpaid.

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Old
07-13-2009, 05:00 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theoil View Post
The english is actually perfect - something quite unusual for this board. What don't you get?
No. It is not.

Quote:
Perhaps it's the context which is being applied to the English.
Which is the context you are using?


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Old
07-13-2009, 05:02 PM
  #64
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regarding Grebeshkov's arbitration - isit possible that the oilers wanted an arbitration case in order to do a post arb buy-out? If a team has a player in arbitration, they can buy out one player in the 48 hour period after the award and it doesn't have to be the player that went to arbitration. They could buy out Staois, Nilson, or Pisani in that time period.

Maybe the oilers and greb have a deal already but want this flexibility.

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Old
07-13-2009, 05:22 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Flash Walken View Post
you must not have noticed the scoring explosiong jokinen had when he first arrived with iginla, and incredible chemistry he showed with Bourque, Moss and the defense (Phaneuf especially) during the playoffs, all while still adjusting to a new system and team.

Does anyone on this board really think Jokinen will score less than 30 goals next year?

I didn't even bring him up, what kind of inferiority complex is that?
You know what I did notice about that "scoring explosion" he had with Iginla, the part where he went 16 games without a goal. That was the longest he had gone without a goal since 2002. Jokinen also didn't score a goal at Pengrowth until game 4 of their only round of playoff hockey.

I also noticed that if you take away the Toronto game Jokinen had 10 points in 18 games. One more thing I noticed was his -7 rating with Calgary during the remainder of the regular season.

I also noticed how awful Jokinen was through the first 3 games against Chicago.

The fact is that trading for Jokinen cost more than just Lombardi and a draft pick, it cost you Cammalleri. Not to mention the huge effect it had on the Flames ability to win the NW division (playing with no call ups). The Jokinen trade could have given the Flames a good chance to win last season, but they failed. Now they are back basically to where they started last season minus Lombardi. At least you guys have a really good prospect pool and don't need that first rounder anyway.

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Old
07-13-2009, 05:31 PM
  #66
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[QUOTE=Fan 4 Life;20410688] Not to mention the huge effect it had on the Flames ability to win the NW division (playing with no call ups).QUOTE]

You know I find this point funny.

If the Oilers would have made this huge, bonehead move, everyone would have been all over Tambo. I'm sure we would have heard the typical 'Lowe really pulled the puppet strings this time' or 'haha stupid Oilers'.

I think it was a huge blunder on Sutter's part and it may have cost them the division crown. I think the shine is really coming off this guy.

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Old
07-13-2009, 05:44 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by ZedenoCiger View Post
You know I find this point funny.

If the Oilers would have made this huge, bonehead move, everyone would have been all over Tambo. I'm sure we would have heard the typical 'Lowe really pulled the puppet strings this time' or 'haha stupid Oilers'.

I think it was a huge blunder on Sutter's part and it may have cost them the division crown. I think the shine is really coming off this guy.
Sutter has been treated like a god in Calgary but all his big mistakes are truly starting to show, and people are slowly starting to shift the blame to the right guy. His brother and him are both going to be fired next season after another first round exit. It is a shame he had to pull his brother onto a sinking ship...

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Old
07-13-2009, 05:48 PM
  #68
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Story of my life

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Old
07-13-2009, 06:04 PM
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Sakich View Post
regarding Grebeshkov's arbitration - isit possible that the oilers wanted an arbitration case in order to do a post arb buy-out? If a team has a player in arbitration, they can buy out one player in the 48 hour period after the award and it doesn't have to be the player that went to arbitration. They could buy out Staois, Nilson, or Pisani in that time period.

Maybe the oilers and greb have a deal already but want this flexibility.
This is an interesting tidbit. Can anyone verify this?

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Old
07-13-2009, 06:15 PM
  #70
BlueBelle
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Oilers sign a pair
http://oilers.nhl.com/team/app/?serv...ticleid=442567

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Old
07-13-2009, 06:28 PM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brule View Post
This is an interesting tidbit. Can anyone verify this?
I know Glen Murray was bought out last year after arbitration, but I don't know how the Oilers would benefit from it. They'd still have a cap hit from the buyout, plus whoever came into the lineup to replace them. It wouldn't be much of a cap savings if any.

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Old
07-13-2009, 06:40 PM
  #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giant Moo View Post
You fail to see the fundamental problem with this "advanced statistic".

Let me ask you a question. How do you compute the (unadvanced) statistic of average? Is there more than one way? How do you compute the (unadvanced) statistic of standard deviation? Is there more than one way?

The answer is, of course, no to both.
Um, I'm not sure if you're trying to troll here or not, but there certainly is more than one way of calculating average. You can use the median of a group of values (half the numbers are higher and half lower), or the mean (add up all the numbers and divide by the size of the group). Not to mention the many ways to deal with outlier values and sample selection.

And although standard deviation is specifically defined, there are MANY ways to calculate variability in a group. Standard deviation, range, and inter-quartile range could all be used.

In much the same way, Desjardins has not called all four numbers QoC, he has called them QC0, QC1, QC2 and QC3. They each use different approximations, and so tell us different things. QC2 and QC3, by my reckoning, are slanted more towards "who got LIT UP by tough competition" (as it uses goals scored when on the ice as a proxy for actual time-on-ice). The advantage of QC2 and 3 is that they can be calculated without detailed time-on-ice figures, and so can be applied to many different hockey leagues.

There is no universal definition of what "quality of competition" is (same as there is no universal definition of variability), but those that regularly watch hockey games can see that some players play "harder" minutes than others. Desjardins has shown four different ways of calculating this, and is asking which numbers look reasonable. This is neither fallacious nor misleading, it's just seeing what can be done with the data and if it's reasonable.


Last edited by oilymion: 07-13-2009 at 07:18 PM. Reason: fixed numbering of QC
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Old
07-13-2009, 06:45 PM
  #73
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Awwww, I was hoping it was a pair of free agents that we didnt already know about.

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Old
07-13-2009, 06:55 PM
  #74
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Originally Posted by Little Fury View Post
No. It is not.
OK. I was just trying to be helpful because I understood the sentence and it makes perfect sense grammatically so I was just offering to explain it. No biggie.

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Old
07-13-2009, 07:23 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by Fan 4 Life View Post
Sutter has been treated like a god in Calgary but all his big mistakes are truly starting to show, and people are slowly starting to shift the blame to the right guy. His brother and him are both going to be fired next season after another first round exit. It is a shame he had to pull his brother onto a sinking ship...
But then I can"t call them the Sutterite team!!!

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