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Oilers News and Blog Reports 07/13/09 Are you nervous about Grebeshkov?

View Poll Results: Still no contract with Grebeshkov, are you nervous?
No, they will get him signed 90 82.57%
No, they won't sign him, but I didn't want him to 0 0%
Yes, I worry they will lose him 19 17.43%
Voters: 109. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-13-2009, 07:32 PM
  #76
I am the Liquor
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ya, the oilers really dodged that bullet.

Lowebellini must be neo, with all these bullet time contract dodges.

What a slick GM, you can't get in trouble for making the wrong move when you don't make any at all.

From his comments, he is glad he is not an Oiler also.
Anyone from Edmonton who willingly makes Calgary thier first choice in hockey teams to play for can sit on a tack.

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Old
07-13-2009, 07:34 PM
  #77
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you must not have noticed the scoring explosiong jokinen had when he first arrived with iginla, and incredible chemistry he showed with Bourque, Moss and the defense (Phaneuf especially) during the playoffs, all while still adjusting to a new system and team.

Does anyone on this board really think Jokinen will score less than 30 goals next year?

I didn't even bring him up, what kind of inferiority complex is that?
Well...when your team sucks this bad it doesn't help ease the pain to watch your rival taking steps to improve.

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07-13-2009, 08:07 PM
  #78
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The more context, the better, but certainly correcting for ice time is the first necessary step (otherwise it's mostly just a measure of how much you're on the ice, IMO). I'm not a huge Corsi supporter, but I think it's a useful measure of how much time you're spending in each end. For that to be useful, you need to know how much time you spend on the ice (so you can do corsi/60min or whatever), what level of competition your playing, and where your shifts start, I think. How good your linemates and team are will also factor in, but I think the good players will have better Corsi even without those corrections, and certainly in comparison to their teammates.



I don't see how obtaining MORE information could lead to bias, as long as you aren't picking and choosing information.



These stats are only for 5x5 play. I would agree that some of the most ardent supporters of these methods tend to undervalue special teams play. In the end GF-GA is what matters, and if you suck at 5x5 but dominate on the PP that's fine too, IMO, as long as you are driving goal differential in a positive direction. However, most of the game is at even strength, so players that can dominate (outscore) at evens are the most valuable. I'm ambivalent towards Horcoff...I actually figure $5.5M isn't bad considering how much he plays and how well he does against tough competition, but at the same time contract values have historically been based almost entirely on scoring (for forwards), and by that metric he is probably overpaid.
Now there's a sensible approach.

Nothing wrong with information as you've pointed out. It's when information is used selectively to support a conclusion that has already been reached that I have a problem.

Take a close look at Patrick Kane, who more than a few here have derided for being a sinkhole at even strength. His PP numbers are off the charts considering his age and last time I looked a PP point was at least as valuable as an ES point.

Playing tough competition to slightly more than a draw at ES can quickly be sewered if you don't have much else to bring to the party. That is the definition of a third line centre.

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07-13-2009, 08:56 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by guymez View Post
Well...when your team sucks this bad it doesn't help ease the pain to watch your rival taking steps to improve.
Have you seen Calgary's forward depth lately? It ain't pretty.

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Old
07-13-2009, 09:06 PM
  #80
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Have you seen Calgary's forward depth lately? It ain't pretty.
Having acquired JayBo, I expect that they will be looking to move Dion (which frees up cap space) to bolster their forward depth. The point being is that as it stands right now the Flames are a much better hockey team than the Oil and they have the asset(s) to improve even more.
I take no pleasure in that reality.

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07-13-2009, 09:09 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by North View Post
Have you seen Calgary's forward depth lately? It ain't pretty.
Well, running the risk of being labelled a Flames fan, let's have a look.

Iginla: 40 goals
Jokinen: 30 goals
Langkow: 20 goals
Conroy: 15 goals
Glencross: 15 goals
Bourque: 20 goals
Moss: 20 goals
Boyd: 10 goals
Sutter: 10 goals
Backlund: 10 goals
Misc: 5 goals

Total: 195 goals.

That should be a reasonable expectation for their forwards and their defense should be able to supply another 40 or so.

If they get their GA down they should be just fine.

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07-13-2009, 09:13 PM
  #82
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I know Glen Murray was bought out last year after arbitration, but I don't know how the Oilers would benefit from it. They'd still have a cap hit from the buyout, plus whoever came into the lineup to replace them. It wouldn't be much of a cap savings if any.

thanks for the lead

Glen Murray was bought out on the 25th of July. The Bruins had one arb case - Wideman and that was resolved prior to the hearing. A deal was struck on the 22nd.

It looks like the Bruins had an opportunity to buy someone out in July and I think the normal buy-out period ends July 1. Having an arb case must give you the flexibility to do a buy out in July.

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Old
07-13-2009, 09:14 PM
  #83
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Bourque - Jokinen - Iginla
Glencross - Langkow - Moss
Boyd - Conroy - Sjostrom
Nystrom - Primeau - Prust
Peters, Greentree, McGrattan, Backlund, Jaffray


Not terrible depth

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Old
07-13-2009, 09:15 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by guymez View Post
Having acquired JayBo, I expect that they will be looking to move Dion (which frees up cap space) to bolster their forward depth. The point being is that as it stands right now the Flames are a much better hockey team than the Oil and they have the asset(s) to improve even more.
I take no pleasure in that reality.
Did you just move to Calgary recently?? Or not listened to any local sports radio since you have lived there?

Do you really believe that anyone with the last name Sutter is interested in trading the Dion?

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07-13-2009, 09:19 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by 40oz View Post
Bourque - Jokinen - Iginla
Glencross - Langkow - Moss
Boyd - Conroy - Sjostrom
Nystrom - Primeau - Prust
Peters, Greentree, McGrattan, Backlund, Jaffray


Not terrible depth
When Glencross is on your second line, that's sad. The third and fourth lines are not pretty either.

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07-13-2009, 09:22 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by North View Post
When Glencross is on your second line, that's sad. The third and fourth lines are not pretty either.
Would you prefer Pouliot or Brule over Conroy?

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07-13-2009, 09:22 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Well, running the risk of being labelled a Flames fan, let's have a look.

Iginla: 40 goals
Jokinen: 30 goals
Langkow: 20 goals
Conroy: 15 goals
Glencross: 15 goals
Bourque: 20 goals
Moss: 20 goals
Boyd: 10 goals
Sutter: 10 goals
Backlund: 10 goals
Misc: 5 goals

Total: 195 goals.

That should be a reasonable expectation for their forwards and their defense should be able to supply another 40 or so.

If they get their GA down they should be just fine.
With regards to GA, their goalie is not getting better, he's getting worse. Your projections are nice, but they're just projections. The reality is that beyond their 1st line, they are thin.

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Old
07-13-2009, 09:26 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Would you prefer Pouliot or Brule over Conroy?
The lines are bad, not an individual player. Sure Conroy is all right, but the rest of them? Yech.

I'd take our 3rd and 4th lines over theirs, but that's not saying much.

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07-13-2009, 09:27 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Usual_Suspect View Post
Did you just move to Calgary recently?? Or not listened to any local sports radio since you have lived there?

Do you really believe that anyone with the last name Sutter is interested in trading the Dion?
Ask yourself this question...what tangible quality does he bring to the table that justifies his cap hit on a team that needs cap space?
Don't forget to factor in a top 10 NHL dman in Jaybo while your figuring this out.

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07-13-2009, 09:27 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Would you prefer Pouliot or Brule over Conroy?
You want a serious answer? Pouliot. He is not nearly as useless as people seem to think.

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07-13-2009, 09:30 PM
  #91
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Ask yourself this question...what tangible quality does he bring to the table that justifies his cap hit on a team that needs cap space?
Don't forget to factor in a top 10 NHL dman in Jaybo while your figuring this out.
It's not that I don't understand your point....If you understood mine you'd realize that the Sutter's love Dion almost as much as Pierre Maguire does.

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07-13-2009, 09:30 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by 40oz View Post
Bourque - Jokinen - Iginla
Glencross - Langkow - Moss
Boyd - Conroy - Sjostrom
Nystrom - Primeau - Prust
Peters, Greentree, McGrattan, Backlund, Jaffray


Not terrible depth
Betuzzi's 44 pts in 66 games was not replaced.

Cammerelli had 82 pts and it is a stretch to think Jokinen will match that.

Bourque was the best bang for the buck ufa signing last year but his shooting % went from 9% to over 14% and that is probably not repeatable.

Langkow is on the wrong side of 32 and doesn't have the same linemates.

Aucoin scored at roughly the same rate per minute as Bowmeister.

Conroy looked finished prior to last year and he could easily revert to a 35 pt guy he was the 2 years prior.

Goals are not going to come easy to the Flames.

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07-13-2009, 09:30 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by North View Post
With regards to GA, their goalie is not getting better, he's getting worse. Your projections are nice, but they're just projections. The reality is that beyond their 1st line, they are thin.
Kippers numbers are down primarily because Sutter has failed to find a suitable backup. With the glut of Goalies on the market this off season that should be easy to remedy.
This is already a very good hockey team and I expect them to be even better once the season starts.

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07-13-2009, 09:30 PM
  #94
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When Glencross is on your second line, that's sad. The third and fourth lines are not pretty either.
I dont know the actual lines, I just threw down names. Im sure Backlund or Boyd could be a better fit
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Sakich View Post
Betuzzi's 44 pts in 66 games was not replaced.

Cammerelli had 82 pts and it is a stretch to think Jokinen will match that.

Bourque was the best bang for the buck ufa signing last year but his shooting % went from 9% to over 14% and that is probably not repeatable.

Langkow is on the wrong side of 32 and doesn't have the same linemates.

Aucoin scored at roughly the same rate per minute as Bowmeister.

Conroy looked finished prior to last year and he could easily revert to a 35 pt guy he was the 2 years prior.

Goals are not going to come easy to the Flames.
Your arguing with yourself man. I never said Calgary got better, or were good to begin with. Im just stating that they have decent depth.

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Old
07-13-2009, 09:31 PM
  #95
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When Glencross is on your second line, that's sad. The third and fourth lines are not pretty either.
Well, I'd wager Conroy, Boyd and Sjostrom could take Pouliot, Moreau and Pisani to school.

Craig Conroy is very good hockey player and their second line is easily the equal of the Oilers second line.

The bottom line is their first line is far superior to the Oilers and the rest is, at best, a draw.

Calgary scored 254 goals last season and the Oilers scored 234.

They will miss Camalleri's contribution to be sure but they're gambling that Jaybo will not only provide more offense from the blueline but also help bring their GA down.

Doesn't look like a bad bet to me. But it is a bet.

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07-13-2009, 09:33 PM
  #96
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When Glencross is on your second line, that's sad. The third and fourth lines are not pretty either.
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Originally Posted by Giant Moo View Post
The lines are bad, not an individual player. Sure Conroy is all right, but the rest of them? Yech.

I'd take our 3rd and 4th lines over theirs, but that's not saying much.
As stated, the 3rd and 4th lines are pretty much a draw in my mind although Conroy is a favourite.
Their strength is their first line.

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07-13-2009, 09:34 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by dashingsilverfox View Post
Well, I'd wager Conroy, Boyd and Sjostrom could take Pouliot, Moreau and Pisani to school.

Craig Conroy is very good hockey player and their second line is easily the equal of the Oilers second line.

The bottom line is their first line is far superior to the Oilers and the rest is, at best, a draw.

Calgary scored 254 goals last season and the Oilers scored 234.

They will miss Camalleri's contribution to be sure but they're gambling that Jaybo will not only provide more offense from the blueline but also help bring their GA down.

Doesn't look like a bad bet to me. But it is a bet.
Possibly of the 'Aviater' variety?

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07-13-2009, 09:35 PM
  #98
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You want a serious answer? Pouliot. He is not nearly as useless as people seem to think.
Yes.

Do you have some proof of Pouliot's usefulness or is it just wishful thinking?

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07-13-2009, 09:35 PM
  #99
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Would you prefer Pouliot or Brule over Conroy?
The love-in with Pouliot over at Lowetide's blog was a bit much to take. I like the fact that Pouliot has a somewhat well-rounded game, but at some point don't you have to come remotely close to being able to excel at something?

Pouliot has to get over the fact that he probably won't be an effective top sixer.

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07-13-2009, 09:36 PM
  #100
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Possibly of the 'Aviater' variety?
Always up for an aviater.

I'd wager Calgary scores more goals than the Oilers unless either makes a major trade which is possible in both cases.

Too soon to call.

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