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07-07-2009, 02:07 PM
  #1
Vagrant
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Carolina Hurricanes Top 15 Prospects List

I figured this would be a nice thread to get some activity going that isn't free agent related. After the draft, we now have a better idea of where our organization stands in regards to our prospects. I think this would be a great time to get your preliminary lists out there to debate. It could create some interesting discussion. I tried to be more "realistic" in regards to my projections including a lot lower projected ceilings than the official HF rankings and more A's in terms of reaching that potential. I think with certain players, it's a lock that they'll probably reach the status that i've described for them and for some that received D's in their projections, the deck is stacked against it ..... but it's not impossible. I think doing the rankings this way provides a more realistic projection and shows which players may be more likely for a call up than others. For example, Brett Carson has an A for his chances of reaching his projected 5th or 6th defenseman ceiling and for that reason, I feel he is our first call up ahead of Jamie McBain. Nick Dodge has an A potential for a 4th line grinder, which means that if we need that kind of body that he'll get consideration before quite a number of the forwards ranked ahead of him. I think this style makes it easier to establish the organizational depth chart and who is ready to make the jump and which players are more likely to need more time. More than anything, I used the letter grades to determine not only the chances that the player would reach their ceiling, but also as a tool to help describe NHL readiness. I think it's a less "safe" way to do the rankings as i'm more likely to be made an idiot for ranking a player that will far exceed his expectations beneath where he should be ranked, but it's also a bit more descriptive than just labeling everybody a 6.5 B or 7.0 B and not taking a stand one way or the other. The very nature of predicting prospects is unpredictable, but I think these rankings would give an outsider that does not follow the Hurricanes a better idea of who our "boom or bust" prospects are as compared to who our "On the cusp of NHL ready", prospects are. Just my opinion, take it or likely leave it.

I would also like to see other lists if anybody feels ambitious enough to make that leap. It's always good to see how others feel about our guys.








Carolina Top 15 Prospects:

1. Zach Boychuk – 8.0 C
2. Drayson Bowman – 7.5 B
3. Brandon Sutter – 6.5 A
4. Jamie McBain – 7.0 B
5. Phillipe Paradis – 7.5 C
6. Zac Dalpe – 7.0 C
7. Chris Terry – 7.0 C
8. Brian Dumoulin – 6.5 B
9. Mike Murphy – 7.0 D
10. Brett Carson – 6.0 A
11. Jerome Samson – 7.0 D
12. Mattias Lindstrom – 6.0 B
13. Justin Peters – 6.5 C
14. Nick Dodge – 5.5 A
15. Kyle Lawson – 6.5 D



HM: D, Michal Jordan (Plymouth OHL), D, Casey Borer (Albany AHL), D Tommi Kivisto (Red Deer WHL), D Brett Bellemore (Plymouth OHL/Albany AHL)

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07-07-2009, 03:24 PM
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DaveG
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1 - C/LW Zach Boychuk - potential first line winger/second line center
2 - LW Drayson Bowman - potential first/second line winger
3 - D Jamie McBain - potential #2 defenseman
4 - C Brandon Sutter - virtual lock third line/shut down center
5 - RW Zac Dalpe - potential second line winger
6 - LW Phillipe Paradis - potential first/second line winger, project
7 - D Brian Dumoulin - potential #2 defenseman, project
8 - G Mike Murphy - potential high end starter, project
9 - D Brett Carson - potential #3/4 defenseman, virtual lock #5/6
10 - C Chris Terry - potential second line forward
11 - F Nick Dodge - virtual lock third/fourth line forward
12 - LW Mattias Lindstrom - potential second line PF, project
13 - C Stefan Chaput - virtual lock fourth line center
14 - G Justin Peters - potential #2 goaltender
15 - RW Jarome Samson - potential second/third line winger
MH: F Nicolas Blanchard, D Kyle Lawson, D Michal Jordan, D Tomi Kivisto, D Casey Borer, D Brett Bellemore

I really can't give accurate grades on these guys. I need to see our prospects (other then Kivisto) much more extensively before I can give a good read on them. Thankfully the prospect camp is coming up so I should be able to do so on all but Lindstrom.

I see a lot of high end potential in some of the guys, but also a good chance that they might not reach it. About the only sure things (IMO at least) that we have in the system that crack my top 15 are Chaput, Carson and Sutter. Blanchard I see as a likely lock as a 4th liner down the line unless the injuries from the bus crash really set him back. Lindstrom I see as relatively safe as something like Craig Adams at the worst.

I like that we don't have quite as many projects as the past few years, although mostly because some of our guys such as Bowman, Terry, Samson, Carson, McBain and Peters have developed rather nicely. Others such as Hughes and Hagemo haven't and are bordering on busts if they're not there already whether it's of their own doing or just bad luck with injuries. But the good news is I think we finally have more players then busts over the last few years, I think that may finally start to pay dividends here in a couple seasons from now.

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07-07-2009, 04:52 PM
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We better hope some of those guys stick. If we cant fill from within once Staals number goes into the 8 and 9 million range we are going to be in big trouble with our internal budget still keeping us from spending near the cap. Just imagine if Staal was making 8 or 9 million now, we wouldnt have sign Cole for sure and we would defintley be looking from within to fill out the back 3 on D. These last few drafts must pan out or we might have to choose between keeping Staal or fielding a competitive team within our team budget.

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07-07-2009, 06:00 PM
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Chris Terry > everyone else.


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07-07-2009, 09:29 PM
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i think 6.5 is low for dumolin. and also think dalpe should be higher than paradis. dalpe had a really solid year at osu.

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07-07-2009, 10:15 PM
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I really like Sutter. I think he's going to be one of the best 3rd line center of the NHL in a few years.

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07-07-2009, 10:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clementnorman View Post
i think 6.5 is low for dumolin. and also think dalpe should be higher than paradis. dalpe had a really solid year at osu.
The reason that Dumoulin is relatively low, for me, in terms of potential upside is that many have compared his skill set to Ryan Whitney. Scouts have said that his defensive game is behind his skill set right now, which is to be expected. By HF terms, a 6.5 player is not a 5th or 6th defenseman, but also not a solid 3rd or 4th defenseman. Somewhere in between. For what it's worth, I would qualify Joe Corvo as probably a 6.5 borderline 7.0 type defenseman. If the scouts are saying Ryan Whitney.... that to me means a big kid with a projectable frame with loads of offensive talent but little to no defensive zone awareness and an absolute refusal to use his body. I can't see that as being Top 4 at any point, unless we're as weak on the blueline when he is ready as we are now.

With that said, he does have a ton of room to grow and he was one of the youngest kids in the draft this year. I am excited about his potential and think that his rating may actually improve over the course of his career, but right now I see his upside as described above.

Dalpe I think is represented well by his 7.0 C .... which is only a letter grade off of where HF has him ranked at 7.0 B for what it's worth. The only thing that concerns me is that he doesn't seem to be adding enough weight to his frame and that may delay his arrival.... or make it not at all. We'll get a better look at him at the prospect camp in the next few days and it will be good to see a lot of these guys, but Dalpe last year had bird legs and a puny upper body. I do think he has strong natural scoring instincts and playing college hockey will help him develop his two way game to be stronger. I like him a lot as a prospect, but I also don't forget that a prospect is exactly what he will be for a while.

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07-07-2009, 10:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wigwan View Post
I really like Sutter. I think he's going to be one of the best 3rd line center of the NHL in a few years.
Sutter is the kind of player that is a bit of a dying breed in the NHL. Teams are moving away from conventional shut down lines and moving more in the direction of a tough forechecking grind line that has more speed, grit, and offensive talent than checking lines of the past. Detroit is a prime example with a player like Daniel Cleary. I think he represents your new age checking line player. Jordan Staal is another example.

The only thing that concerns me about Sutter is that his offensive game won't ever catch up to his defense and he'll become a reliable 4th line center with massive penalty killing responsibilities. That is a great kind of player to have, but you don't draft those kids in the first round. I think he would be best served by spending a full year in Albany next year getting all situational time and learning how to play offensive hockey when the time calls for it. Just like the previous generation before him, you can see he is an absolute hockey brain and having that on the bench is just as good as having it behind it. I also hope that his body fills out a little better so that he can play the game with the tenacity that he wants to play it with. Like Dalpe, he's going to have to add some serious weight before he's a consideration for a Top 9 slot. 20 lbs. would be a great start.

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07-08-2009, 01:23 AM
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i now its unpopular to say, as i took a royal flaming for it last fall - but i cant see how anyone can say now that sutter belonged in the nhl. especially as you say you are worried about his offense. he needs offense to be a third line guy. junior was needed for one more year, he needed to be on the pp, on the pk, playng every minute available to him holding the puck. he wasnt strong enough, he wasnt developed enough skill wise and he has lost a crucial year of development for it. for those who would say this year was invaluable, i say hogwash. the year of developed offense is something he may never get again in his life, but the year in the pros couldve happened this year or the next. for those who say he had nothing left in junior....you have to be kidding. this kid cant score yet, and never lead a team anywhere in junior - despite being a "sutter" and all the winning intangibles. bloodlines or not you have to win to be a winner, and his junior teams got crushed - the wjc was only 2 weeks...a nice experience but he needs to lead. to those who say red deer wouldve ruined him, i dont know...how about a trade? he wouldve been great trade bait for them to rebuild, and for him to get a run to the memorial cup. i think the year of playing a leading role on a good team wouldve been a huge boost for him, more important than getting an early year at pros. nothing about sutters body or game said he was ready for what happened this year...maybe only his mind. if the only thing thats ready is the mind, you dont belong at the level and are only going to hurt yourself. sutters body is so thin, it may be a couple of years before he is ready - i hope he eventually gets the time to develop some hands - because his offensive game is nearly non existent, and you have to wonder how much it will develop now that he is playing against men every night. guys who scored a 100 pts a season in junior struggle with that task, and sutter wasnt a point per game guy even in junior. guys who score that little dont become 3rd line nhl centers, they at best are 4th liners.

aint too late for the kid, i hope anyway, 19 is one of the most important years of development a kid has. hopefully we leave him down there at least a year, he needs time to grow the skills as well as the body.


Last edited by bleedgreen: 07-08-2009 at 01:28 AM.
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07-08-2009, 01:42 AM
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At the time, I was one of the people who said that Sutter needed to be in the NHL. As the year wore on, it became obvious to me that he wasn't ready. I thought his rough start was his acclimation to the NHL, but I think now that it was probably him just not being physically mature enough and not having enough experience in order to contribute to the Hurricanes.

Carolina recognized it after the coaching change and perhaps before and he spent the majority of the rest of the year in the minors, but he needs more than those 20 odd games down there to get his game back on track. He needs to be an offensive player for a while to see how that fits on him. As you said, he's not going to be very useful to us unless he develops that part of his game.

I gladly take my plate of crow on that issue.

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07-08-2009, 01:54 AM
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I have to eat crow about Sutter as well. At first I believed he could contribute solidly in the bottom 6 PKing and having limited minutes in the NHL but as the year went on he showed he wasn't ready physically, mentally (the Weight hit - gotta know to keep your head up in the NHL or you're gonna get smoked like that.) or offensively. I'm not sure he would have been better off logging top minutes on a crap Red Deer team though. Maybe for his offensive game but it wouldn't have done much more for the other aspects of his game. I'm glad he at least got to get some NHL action in addition playing more when he was in Albany. He knows what he has to work on now and hopefully we allow him another season or so to develop in the AHL by logging some quality minutes there.

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07-08-2009, 06:39 AM
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I didn't want him in Red Deer simply because I didn't think he could learn much of anything from Wallin.

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07-08-2009, 07:08 AM
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All I can truly hope for is we get to see a full season in the AHL of Sutter, Boychuk, Bowman, McBain. Terry aswell, but it is highly unlikely he is anywhere but Albany.

These guys are all possible future cornerstones of this franchise and each and every one of them, regardless of how they got here, how many points they collected in junior or college, need to be in the AHL. Atleast for the season. A call up or two throughout the season wouldn't be a bad thing, it's always good to get a taste and sample size.

This organization has the perfect opportunity to give these kids atleast one full season in the AHL. With contracts expiring next July of Whitney, Cullen, Walker, Corvo, Kaberle, Wallin.

If these players are ready after a year in the AHL, they may be able to step in and help fill the void of some of these open spots. Add to that JR will have a good chunk of money on hand to build around Staal, Ruutu, Pitkanen, Gleason, Ward & these kids.

If JR plans on bringing Sutter in this year and giving him 4th line minutes, than he's an idiot. If you're going to do that, sign a cheap 4th liner for all I care. Whether it be Yelle, Gratton... someone in the form of Craig Adams. I will even go as far as saying I would rather a full season of Tim Conboy on the 4th line over Sutter in the mix. That goes for Boychuk or Bowman aswell. And for the love of all things good, keep McBain away from the NHL.

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07-08-2009, 08:56 AM
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1. Boychuk- either very good left winger or 2nd line center behind Staal
2. Bowman- Think he would look great next to Staal for many years.
3. Sutter- Third line center once he puts on weight he will be fine. That was really the only thing missing from his game this year.
4. McBain-potential partner with Gleason
5. Paradis-If he can be for us what Ladd is for Chicago, I will be very happy.
6. Dalpe- Solid two way player. If Boychuk plays center I think Dalpe could compliment him very well on the 2nd line.
7. Dumoulin-Could develop the same as McBain. I think he could be a solid second pairing guy
8. Terry-Boom or Bust imo. Boom would be a solid second line guy.
9. Murphy-Another Boom or Bust. I have faith he could be a solid starter in this league, but if he is he will probably get us some good assets in a trade
10. Lindstrom-If he learns to skate he, I would love Tomas Holmstrom clone
11. Dodge- 4th line center
12. Carson- Anchor the bottom pairing like Wallin has done.
13. Peters- Cam's backup
14. Jordan- Frank Kaberle? Hopefully the 05-06 Frankie, not the Frank that showed up these last few years.
15. Bellemore-solid defensive type bottom pairing, did win conference defensive defensemen

HM: Kivisto, Lawson, Blanchard, Chaput, Samson

Strength- Depth. How often have we been able to say that?
Weakness- First line or top pairing guys. No home run type guys.

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07-08-2009, 10:57 AM
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I think sutter probably learned alot last year from brindy about faceoffs and PK.
Also next year sutter bowman and boychuk should all be in the top 6 because one of dwyer and ryan will be here. so that leaves them with only dodge and samson as definte guys from last year who had decent numbers. if helminen returns he takes a top 6 role as well. I wonder if bowman is ahead of boychuk on offensive ability right now, from the stats alone it appears that he is.
another thing to think about is if bobby hughes will straighten it out for next year and snag a top six role. Sutter had 12 points in 22 games last year so thats decent for a 19 year old. i think he will be the number 2 center for them.
on defense mcbain should be on the top pairing with rodney or carson which ever doesnt make the canes next year.

its hard to judge but if these prospect are what they are hyped to be albany should compete for a top 4 seed in the playoff wouldnt you think?

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07-08-2009, 12:10 PM
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DaveG
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I thought the best place for Sutter last year is a place he flat out couldn't play because of the agreement between the CHL and AHL. It sucks but he was just too damn young. It was the best place for his development and he played well there when he got his shot. Mentally he was ready for the NHL, I would even say his skating was ready for the NHL. But physically? no, that became obvious VERY fast and we probably would have been better off with Helminen as our #4 or going out and signing someone to play that role.

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07-12-2009, 03:44 PM
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Are both Boychuk and Bowman likely to make the team next year?

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07-12-2009, 03:57 PM
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No, probably year after for both of them with the roster we have right now.

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07-12-2009, 06:47 PM
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I just looked at their stats, I didn't realize that both of them could play in Albany this year given that they have both played 4 seasons of WHL. So that probably makes sense, with likely callups for injuries, etc.?

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07-12-2009, 07:35 PM
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Yeah definitely. I wouldn't expect more then 15 games from either at the NHL level unless they trade impending UFAs away at the end of the year due to a bad season. But man that's going to be a fun group to watch in Albany next year.

Bowman, Boychuk, Terry, Samson, Ryan, Pistilli, Hughes, McBain, maybe even Murphy.

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07-13-2009, 10:17 AM
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That does look like a good group.

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07-23-2009, 11:41 AM
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according to the article in the n&o dalpe has gotten 16 pounds heavier and is much better after the yeat at osu. they said he might be a captain there. he already had a solid year last year, id say hell be there top player scoring wise.

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07-23-2009, 11:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clementnorman View Post
according to the article in the n&o dalpe has gotten 16 pounds heavier and is much better after the yeat at osu. they said he might be a captain there. he already had a solid year last year, id say hell be there top player scoring wise.
Awesome! That is exactly the kind of report that we needed to hear from Dalpe. I could tell in the video of camp that he had certainly added some weight, but I couldn't tell how much. He should be around 6-1, 192 now which is an awesome playing weight for a player his age. He should have an even better season with Ohio State next season if that's the case.

Carolina will probably take the same plan with him as they did with McBain. Get him in here after his Sophomore season and see if he needs that Junior year or if he's ready to make the jump. Fantastic news for Dalpe as well as our prospect pool.

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07-27-2009, 10:09 AM
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Dalpe's definitely gotten bigger. He's not a huge guy, but pretty ripped for his size. He also seemed like the most mature guy that I spoke to at prospect camp. It's amazing how much these kids grow emotionally in a year ... both Dalpe and Murphy — particularly Murphy — seemed much calmer, poised, ect. Part of that is them knowing what they were getting into this year... but it's clear they're both "growing up."

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